Hindsight in 2020 -- Redoing Some Recent Pats Drafts

[Mazz22]

That's a clever analogy except Brees seems to be really injury prone these past few years.

Yeah. He has really broken down the last couple of years. Playing into 40s is no joke.

 

[Hawg73]

I can't stand the Ravens either but tip of the hat to them for developing this hybrid offense. Jackson is a unique talent. I never really see him take a massive hit because he is just so slippery and elusive. Vick used to get crushed. Cam got crushed. Jackson is a different breed. I don't know either if he will stay healthy but he will continue to develop, he is a smart kid who works hard. He has the "IT" factor which is so hard to find in a QB. He wins a ton and he is a dynamic. Not sure why there would be any question that not only will the Ravens pay him but he is most likely getting a top 5 contract.

A fair point. I've always been fascinated that some guys have the knack for slipping a hit that seems supernatural and some guys just get nailed. It has little to do with speed. It's something different, like a spidey sense, I think.

Curtis Martin was great at slipping hits. Frank Gore, too. As fine an athlete as Matthew Slater is, he was the opposite. When we had him running back kicks he would get lit up almost every time until Bill mercifully pulled the plug. He'd just run dead straight into a guy and get killed. It was almost funny ---when I saw him running one back I'd have to look away.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

Mazz22 has some strong opinions, but I have to admit, usually backs it up with solid data.

Jackson has those games where he is right on the spot, like the final winning drive last night (all I saw of it) and some where he seems pretty wild, but I think the prime reason why many folks aren't sold on him is that running QBs are often one bad hit away from Averageville. On that the experts are all in synch.

His stats do look impressive, but how much of that is the extreme measures teams have to employ to keep him from running wild on them?

I will also allow that he looked pretty skinny at Louisville, but is now a lot more solid and he can both avoid and take a hit. He's tougher than a week-old bagel.

Still, one of these days he's going to get a serious leg injury and I don't know what will happen if he loses a step or two. I'm not going to bet against him, though.

I hate the Ravens and their coach, but I admire the chance they took over several years to develop a new/old style that is radically different from the NFL norm and I have to take my hat off to them for pulling it off and Jackson was the guy that makes it go. Their OL is pretty shaky now, but they can still put up 40 plus. That's unusual.

Lamah Unregular Ackson is currently better than Scam...so, ugh. Whatevah.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

Lamar is a RB that can sometimes throw a pass. He ISN'T a QB though. He NEVER was...

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

He ALWAYS WAS a fast RB.

 

[chevss454]

My goodness. Is that all you think GMs look at when evaluating a QB like Lamar who is the most dynamic runner the game has ever seen? He is 11th in QBR. He is a dynamic difference maker every single time he touches the ball. He makes that entire team go. Look at his stat line from last night vs a solid Browns team that was surging - he threw for 163 and a TD AND ran for 124 and 2 TDs. Their defense gave up 42 and he still won them the game. Do you think Ravens mgmt looks at that and thinks, hmmm but he is only 24th ranked QB? I mean, really?

They are 8th in points. 8th!! Their defense has not been good this year like last year and yet he has them on track to win 11 games. And he did not even play a game they lost due to Covid. Could have been 12 wins. The guy is a winner. Winners get paid.

Lamar caught the NFL by surprise initially but teams are defending his run game to make him beat them with his passing and he can't win with his arm. Teams with a better than average D can stop his running successfully. Heck, even the Pats did a pretty good job of that and won 23-17 a few weeks ago. With Lamar, the Ravens are built to score first and stay in front. They're not a team built for coming back from a 2 score deficit in the 4th qtr. Defenses get better in the playoffs & teams need a QB who can pass effectively to mount a comeback if they want to go far. 28-3. Hybrid QBs can pass and run; Lamar is not a hybrid, he's one dimensional. Lamar is not a QB I'd want for my team.

BTW, I never said the Ravens won't re-sign him - I said they have 25M reasons to think long and hard about that decision.
Personally, I hope they do sign him for a ton of money because it would help the Patriots. He doesn't scare me one bit.

FYI, their defense is playing 90-95% as well as last year. Their regression this year is on O. These graphs clearly show that.

Looking at the Patriots - 2020

Henry is good, but, gets injured a lot... Sounds like he would fit right in.

www.patriotsplanet.net

Mazz22 has some strong opinions, but I have to admit, usually backs it up with solid data.

Jackson has those games where he is right on the spot, like the final winning drive last night (all I saw of it) and some where he seems pretty wild, but I think the prime reason why many folks aren't sold on him is that running QBs are often one bad hit away from Averageville. On that the experts are all in synch.

His stats do look impressive, but how much of that is the extreme measures teams have to employ to keep him from running wild on them?

I will also allow that he looked pretty skinny at Louisville, but is now a lot more solid and he can both avoid and take a hit. He's tougher than a week-old bagel.

Still, one of these days he's going to get a serious leg injury and I don't know what will happen if he loses a step or two. I'm not going to bet against him, though.

I hate the Ravens and their coach, but I admire the chance they took over several years to develop a new/old style that is radically different from the NFL norm and I have to take my hat off to them for pulling it off and Jackson was the guy that makes it go. Their OL is pretty shaky now, but they can still put up 40 plus. That's unusual.

Her solid data is past history. Teams know how to defend his running game. The blueprint is to make him pass. Some teams were able to use personnel to do that this year but others need another year to add personnel to scheme for next year. The trend is going down for him right now. The Ravens beat the Browns by 34 early in the season but by only 5 Monday night. An ailing Steelers team beat them twice a few weeks apart recently. They beat the hobbling Wentz-led Eagles by 2 points and the lowly Pats beat them soundly a month ago. Fortunately, the Ravens have an easy schedule to finish the year - Jags, Giants and Bengals. The Giants could be trouble but, lucky for them, they only need to win 2 to get in the playoffs. Another one-and-done is certainly possible the way it's shaping up.

 

[Mazz22]

Lamar Jackson is the AFC offensive player of the week

The Ravens and Browns played perhaps the most memorable game of the year on Monday night and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was right in the middle of it.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

 

[Mazz22]

Her solid data is past history. Teams know how to defend his running game.

They do?

2019 rushing stats: 1206 yards/7 TDs
2020 rushing stats with 3 games left to play: 793 yards/6 TDs

So he is on pace to rush for 1000+ yards this year and 8 TDs and of course he missed a game due to Covid.

 

[rivshark86]

I’d take Goff long term over Jackson.
Now this year to win one game? Yeah I’m probably taking Lamar. We all know what the future holds for him though. It probably looks way worse than Cam this year btw.

 

[chevss454]

They do?

2019 rushing stats: 1206 yards/7 TDs
2020 rushing stats with 3 games left to play: 793 yards/6 TDs

So he is on pace to rush for 1000+ yards this year and 8 TDs and of course he missed a game due to Covid.

Yep. He's not as effective as he was & it's not just LJ, it's the entire offense.
The Ravens were 1st in rushing in 2019; they're 14th now.
In 2019 their point differential was almost +250 points; it's 90 now with 3 games to play. Not even close.
You'll see when when the playoffs begin.

 

[Mazz22]

Yep. He's not as effective as he was & it's not just LJ, it's the entire offense.
The Ravens were 1st in rushing in 2019; they're 14th now.
In 2019 their point differential was almost +250 points; it's 90 now with 3 games to play. Not even close.
You'll see when when the playoffs begin.

Did you not read the stats? LJ is just as effective this year as he was last year in terms of yardage and scoring more TDs. In terms of their overall rushing attack, it was always going to be difficult to duplicate the dominance they had last year but instead of blaming the dynamic QB, you may want to look at the Oline for their drop off this year. After being the most dominant offensive line in the NFL last season, they are struggling mightily this year given the retirement of Marshal Yanda. Center Matt Skura has a 63.8 overall grade from Pro Football Focus while Yanda's replacement, rookie Tyre Phillips is at 48.8 — both well below average at their respective positions.

Like I have been saying, the Ravens for sure have had some issues across the board this year both on offense and defense but Lamar is the LEAST of their concerns. He still needs to progress as a passer but what he brings to the table wins them games at a stunning clip. They are on track for 11 wins and playoffs for a third straight year. I don't believe his play or skillset gives them any pause in terms of paying him a long term contract which has been your assertion. We will find out most likely as soon as this off-season.

 

[SkiptoMyLou]

Did you not read the stats? LJ is just as effective this year as he was last year in terms of yardage and scoring more TDs. In terms of their overall rushing attack, it was always going to be difficult to duplicate the dominance they had last year but instead of blaming the dynamic QB, you may want to look at the Oline for their drop off this year. After being the most dominant offensive line in the NFL last season, they are struggling mightily this year given the retirement of Marshal Yanda. Center Matt Skura has a 63.8 overall grade from Pro Football Focus while Yanda's replacement, rookie Tyre Phillips is at 48.8 — both well below average at their respective positions.

Like I have been saying, the Ravens for sure have had some issues across the board this year both on offense and defense but Lamar is the LEAST of their concerns. He still needs to progress as a passer but what he brings to the table wins them games at a stunning clip. They are on track for 11 wins and playoffs for a third straight year. I don't believe his play or skillset gives them any pause in terms of paying him a long term contract which has been your assertion. We will find out most likely as soon as this off-season.

He might be just as effective statistically according to you, but the offense isn't. If they can't open up rushing lanes to keep their scheme going then they gotta resort to passing. Lamar has not proven to be a reliable drop back and make reads type of passer. His passing is all dictated off the run. If the run is contained he seems to be completely lost. Most NFL teams are catching on or already caught on.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Ravens decide to move on from him and then some lowly team break the bank on him in hopes that they get that type record, but I just don't see it happen unless he improves his passing tenfold.

 

[Mazz22]

He might be just as effective statistically according to you, but the offense isn't. If they can't open up rushing lanes to keep their scheme going then they gotta resort to passing. Lamar has not proven to be a reliable drop back and make reads type of passer. His passing is all dictated off the run. If the run is contained he seems to be completely lost. Most NFL teams are catching on or already caught on.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Ravens decide to move on from him and then some lowly team break the bank on him in hopes that they get that type record, but I just don't see it happen unless he improves his passing tenfold.

He is still developing as a passer. Their issues on offense this year are primarily the offensive line and lack of receiver separation as well and also Covid just like most teams this year. That being said, they are still running 2 WR routes which is not sustainable. I don't think you can look at Lamar and try to put him into a traditional box. He is not Vick. He is not Cam. He is something completely different. He literally dominates games. He may be the most elusive football player that has ever taken the field. It is up to the Ravens to see if they can continue to make this type of unique offense work. They have done an amazing job so far. I really don't see them moving on from a QB that has won so many games for them. Harbaugh was ready to be fired until Lamar showed up. I think the org loves him from every indication and based on his production.

 

[king of kings]

This is probably one of his better draft classes in years. Only big disappointed I'm seeinf is TEs

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

Lamar Jackson is a RB that can throw sometimes.

 

[chevss454]

He is still developing as a passer. Their issues on offense this year are primarily the offensive line and lack of receiver separation as well and also Covid just like most teams this year. That being said, they are still running 2 WR routes which is not sustainable. I don't think you can look at Lamar and try to put him into a traditional box. He is not Vick. He is not Cam. He is something completely different. He literally dominates games. He may be the most elusive football player that has ever taken the field. It is up to the Ravens to see if they can continue to make this type of unique offense work. They have done an amazing job so far. I really don't see them moving on from a QB that has won so many games for them. Harbaugh was ready to be fired until Lamar showed up. I think the org loves him from every indication and based on his production.

Your hyperbole is showing.

 

[Mazz22]

Probably time to bump this with Lamar's first playoff win.