2 point conversion

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subroc

subroc

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2 point conversion.

It appears that this pre-season, more teams are attempting 2 point conversions. Maybe the new extra point rule change is responsible, maybe teams just want the extra offensive plays, maybe it means nothing at all.

NFL teams made 59 2 point attempts last season (2014) and made 28 of em'. A 47% success rate. In 2013, teams made 69 attempts and made 33 of em' for a 48% success rate.

Is the pre-season a portent of things to come this year? Will we see more teams talking more chances at the 2 point conversion or is this rule change nothing at all?

link
 
subroc said:
2 point conversion.

It appears that this pre-season, more teams are attempting 2 point conversions. Maybe the new extra point rule change is responsible, maybe teams just want the extra offensive plays, maybe it means nothing at all.

NFL teams made 59 2 point attempts last season (2014) and made 28 of em'. A 47% success rate. In 2013, teams made 69 attempts and made 33 of em' for a 48% success rate.

Is the pre-season a portent of things to come this year? Will we see more teams talking more chances at the 2 point conversion or is this rule change nothing at all?

link
Click to expand...

Where did you get that data from?

The link you provide only shows 2014 and earlier. I didn't see anything about this pre-season.

I'm not disputing your claim, I simply am curious just how much "more" teams are doing this this pre-season, as opposed to previous pre-season years.

I would assume that teams would try a 2 point conversion more in pre-season than the regular season.

It's a classic "situational football" thing that smart coaches would want to try in a real game situation to see how the players execute.

So to judge if the rule change affects the 2 point attempts, one would need to see just how much the attempts have changed, vs. previous pre-seasons.
 
O_P_T said:
Where did you get that data from?

The link you provide only shows 2014 and earlier. I didn't see anything about this pre-season.

I'm not disputing your claim, I simply am curious just how much "more" teams are doing this this pre-season, as opposed to previous pre-season years.

I would assume that teams would try a 2 point conversion more in pre-season than the regular season.

It's a classic "situational football" thing that smart coaches would want to try in a real game situation to see how the players execute.

So to judge if the rule change affects the 2 point attempts, one would need to see just how much the attempts have changed, vs. previous pre-seasons.
Click to expand...

I don't have pre-season data. I have just watched quite a bit of pre-season action on NFL network. The link was provided just to illustrate some sort of baseline. It seems like every preseason game teams are trying 2. I believe the Patriots have gone for 2 a few times already. If you haven't noticed it I don't have any data to prove it to you but, that's what I see.
 
aloyouis said:
Maybe, but he will make more of them relative to the league....
Click to expand...

How many more? What will the miss % be for a 32 yd (still a basic chip shot)?

BTW. I have 0 Problem with the Ghost signong.
 
subroc said:
I don't have pre-season data. I have just watched quite a bit of pre-season action on NFL network. The link was provided just to illustrate some sort of baseline. It seems like every preseason game teams are trying 2. I believe the Patriots have gone for 2 a few times already. If you haven't noticed it I don't have any data to prove it to you but, that's what I see.
Click to expand...

Again, I'm not disputing it.

I simply wonder how different it is this year from previous pre-season games.

I would assume that teams are more likely to try a 2 point conversion in the pre-season, since the games don't count.

To be able to judge if this year is any different, one would need to compare it to previous seasons.

I don't watch any pre-season games, except for the Patriots, so I can't judge if there is any difference between this year and previous pre-seasons.

You may very well be right. If teams think that they are more likely to go for 2 point conversions in the regular season, I am certain they would try it more often in the pre-season.

BTW, based on your post count, I assume you haven't been here long.

My questioning the data supporting your assertion is nothing personal. I often question the basis for claims made by posters. That's the curse or blessing of a major in Physics and a minor in Math and Philosophy I suppose. :coffee:

Some find this type of questioning enlightening, others maddening.

I suspect the response all depends on if one gets the bear or the bear gets you.
 
BostonTim said:
How many more? What will the miss % be for a 32 yd (still a basic chip shot)?

BTW. I have 0 Problem with the Ghost signong.
Click to expand...

No idea. They were going to pay a certain amount for a kicker of his abilities anyway.
 
O_P_T said:
Again, I'm not disputing it.

I simply wonder how different it is this year from previous pre-season games.

I would assume that teams are more likely to try a 2 point conversion in the pre-season, since the games don't count.

To be able to judge if this year is any different, one would need to compare it to previous seasons.

I don't watch any pre-season games, except for the Patriots, so I can't judge if there is any difference between this year and previous pre-seasons.

You may very well be right. If teams think that they are more likely to go for 2 point conversions in the regular season, I am certain they would try it more often in the pre-season.

BTW, based on your post count, I assume you haven't been here long.

My questioning the data supporting your assertion is nothing personal. I often question the basis for claims made by posters. That's the curse or blessing of a major in Physics and a minor in Math and Philosophy I suppose. :coffee:

Some find this type of questioning enlightening, others maddening.

I suspect the response all depends on if one gets the bear or the bear gets you.
Click to expand...

I am thinking that your approach on this is a good one. I typically watch at least a little bit of every preseason game that they show on NFLN (which is all 65 of them) every season. It's certainly not scientific, but from my memories of preseasons past, teams most definitely have gone for 2 more often than in the regular season (i.e.: it's not just this preseason). It just makes sense to practice that in the preseason because it doesn't come up much during the regular season and it's not the same in practice.

I'm not sure that this rule change will affect much of anything except to maybe a select few teams (Philly comes to mind). It's sure nice having a kicker like Ghost to make those long XPs, though.
 
I think it's safe to assume teams will kick the PAT during the regular season. I have no data to support this, but a 32 yd FG should be a gimme at this level one would think. If your team's kicker can't hit that, then it's very safe to assume he will be out of work

I never want to see the Patriots go for 2. It means something bad is going on, unless they're running up the score, which is perceived as bad, but good for us
 
I think it's safe to assume teams will kick the PAT during the regular season. I have no data to support this, but a 32 yd FG should be a gimme at this level one would think. If your team's kicker can't hit that, then it's very safe to assume he will be out of work

I never want to see the Patriots go for 2. It means something bad is going on, unless they're running up the score, which is perceived as bad, but good for us
 
(P - shoulder) said:
I fully expect Chip Kelly to go for 2 90% of the time going forward :coffee:

Sent from the moon using lasers
Click to expand...

I actually hope he does. I think if he did, it would be pretty crazy (and maybe even forward thinking if he can pull it off) and entertaining. I'm not one of those people that likes to root against others (unless you're talking about the Jets), but I'm rooting for Chip to succeed in all of his crazy schemes unless he's playing the Pats. I don't think he's as whacky as a lot of people like to make him out to be though. He's been pretty innovative as a coach, but remains to be seen if he can continue to evolve in the pro game.
 
Well, let's do the numbers. If we combine the two years of data in the OP, then 47.5 % of conversions make it, so a try is worth .95 points. If the new 15 yrd XP is made less than 95% of the time, then you go for 2 every time, easy. According to http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/5/19/8606641/nfl-rule-changes-extra-point-2-point-conversion-approved <-- this article, 15 yd FG's are made at a 93% clip. So the 2 point try is officially the correct move now. Let's see who figures it out and who refuses to change with the times. The whole world is watching, Ron Rivera!

Now, obviously, the success rates will be different for different teams, so there should be a testing out period. Also, I wonder if 2 point conversion success will go down if it's used more, or because there is no longer the option of doing a fake FG.
 
Patriots4ever said:
I think it's safe to assume teams will kick the PAT during the regular season. I have no data to support this, but a 32 yd FG should be a gimme at this level one would think. If your team's kicker can't hit that, then it's very safe to assume he will be out of work

I never want to see the Patriots go for 2. It means something bad is going on, unless they're running up the score, which is perceived as bad, but good for us
Click to expand...

What about going for 2 against teams that still can't stop the run such as the Colts? :wink:

Or against teams so stupid they fall for trickery every single time such as the Ravens? :thumb:

Or against teams the Pats/BB/TB/RK have every right to want to embarrass the shit out of & pound into submission such as the Colts :wink: & the Ravens :thumb:?

Give me 2 every effing time!
woohoo

With the new ineligible receiver rules there's a reason BB brought in a 300lb OT and gave him a TE number. Think about that for a second!
:devil:
 
chevss454 said:
What about going for 2 against teams that still can't stop the run such as the Colts? :wink:

Or against teams so stupid they fall for trickery every single time such as the Ravens? :thumb:

Or against teams the Pats/BB/TB/RK have every right to want to embarrass the shit out of & pound into submission such as the Colts :wink: & the Ravens :thumb:?

Give me 2 every effing time!
woohoo
Click to expand...

Bingo, we've got Bingo!

chevss454 said:
With the new ineligible receiver rules there's a reason BB brought in a 300lb OT and gave him a TE number. Think about that for a second!
:devil:
Click to expand...

So I assume that means this will be illegal next year.
 
Just saw the preseason stats on this on TV:


Code: 
                        2014     2015
PAT Conv %               97%      94% 
Missed Pats              8         14
2-pt att pct             10%      20%
2-pt conv %              40%      44%
 
chevss454 said:
What about going for 2 against teams that still can't stop the run such as the Colts? :wink:

Or against teams so stupid they fall for trickery every single time such as the Ravens? :thumb:

Or against teams the Pats/BB/TB/RK have every right to want to embarrass the shit out of & pound into submission such as the Colts :wink: & the Ravens :thumb:?

Give me 2 every effing time!
woohoo

With the new ineligible receiver rules there's a reason BB brought in a 300lb OT and gave him a TE number. Think about that for a second!
:devil:
Click to expand...

Against teams that tend to give up 2 pt conversions, after 3-4 TDs, you would gain an additional FG lead. It would be like stealing a possession.
 
subroc said:
2 point conversion.

It appears that this pre-season, more teams are attempting 2 point conversions. Maybe the new extra point rule change is responsible, maybe teams just want the extra offensive plays, maybe it means nothing at all.

NFL teams made 59 2 point attempts last season (2014) and made 28 of em'. A 47% success rate. In 2013, teams made 69 attempts and made 33 of em' for a 48% success rate.

Is the pre-season a portent of things to come this year? Will we see more teams talking more chances at the 2 point conversion or is this rule change nothing at all?

link
Click to expand...


The solution chosen to move the extra point kick back is wrongheaded, IMHO.

To make it more intriguing play, I would have moved the Line of Scrimmage to the 1 or 1.5 yard line, thus encouraging two point attempts. :bow:

Then I would have moved the kicking point to the hash marks instead of the center of the field, making kicks tougher. And the closer LOS encourages more two point attempts The acute kicking angle in effect narrows the goalposts making kicks tougher. :bow:

Choosing this way makes it more uncertain what a team is going to try, making the extra point conversion attempt more of a surprise.:wink:
 
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