2011 Pats Post-Draft Analysis

[mayoclinic]

The 2011 NFL draft is finally in the books. The UDFA signings and FA are in limbo, so the overall picture is still not complete. But the Pats' draft itself shocked many people, and is worth taking a look at. But first, some perspective.

The Rebuilding of a Perennial SB Contender

The Pats won their last SB in 2004, which seems eons ago. Then the defense started to fall apart, beginning with Ted Bruschi's stroke. The 2006 team came within a minute of the SB but was let down by an old and slow defense that finally wilted under the effects of the flu, fatigue, and Peyton Manning. The 2007 historic offense led to another SB appearance and a 17-0 regular season which masked some of the problems, but the defense continued to struggle with a lack of youth and athleticism.

The rebuilding of the defense started in 2007 but really began in earnest in 2008 and took off over the past 3 drafts. Between 2007 and 2010 the Pats drafted 9 defensive players in the first 2 rounds, and 11 in the first 4:

- 2007: Brandon Meriweather (24)
- 2008: Jerod Mayo (10), Terrance Wheatley (62), Shawn Crable (78), Jonathan Wilhite (129)
- 2009: Patrick Chung (34), Ron Brace (40), Darius Butler (41), Tyrone McKenzie (97)
- 2010: Devin McCourty (27), Jermaine Cunningham (53), Brandon Spikes (62)

Not to mention late additions such as Gary Guyton (UDFA), Dane Fletcher (UDFA), Kyle Arrington (UDFA), Kyle Love (UDFA), Sergio Brown (UDFA), Myron Pryor (2009 6th), Darryl Richards (2009 6th) Brandon Deaderick (2010 7th) and Kade Weston (2010 7th) as well as trades or signings of players such as Leigh Bodden, Tully Banta-Cain, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon McGowan, Jarad Page and Eric Moore.

By 2010 the defense was one of the youngest, fastest and most athletic in the NFL, but also one of the most inexperienced. It suffered from a lack of pressure and soft coverage, and for a while was on a record pace in terms of worst 3rd down % allowed. The defense improved considerably over the second half of the 2010 season before struggling with injuries and fading.

Most people seem to think that the 2011 defense should be improved because of (1) a year of experience under the belt of the young players, (2) expected development and improvement, and (3) the return of some key veterans who missed 2010, particularly Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden. Nevertheless, most people agreed that the #1 priority for the 2011 draft was to complete the rebuilding of the defense by adding a stud DL and pass rusher, particularly in a draft with a historically strong class. Statements by BB that how teams do in the 2011 draft would be defined by their ability to evaluate the DL class supported this. Although a few people like Tedy Bruschi questioned whether the Pats might be getting too young on defense and others felt that OL was at least as big a need, just 48 hours ago most people were expecting an aggressive draft targeted at bolstering the defensive front 7 and completing the rebuilding of the defense.

Another Letdown, or a Brilliant Draft?

Most of us are by now used to surprises from the Pats, and without a "WTF?" moment or two it just wouldn't be right. But this year seemed a bit more of a "WTF?" draft than usual. In general, 2 things seem to have occurred:

1. The draft fell almost perfectly for the perceived needs, with many, many talented players who were expected to be off the board falling to the Pats' many picks, or to well within tradeup reach. This included guys like Nick Fairley (13), Robert Quinn (14), Prince Amukamara (19), Cameron Jordan (24), Mark Ingram (28), Muhammad Wilkerson (30), Cameron Heyward (31), Jabaal Sheard (37), Akeem Ayers (39), Brooks Reed (42), Da'Quan Bowers (51), Mikel Leshoure (57), Randall Cobb (64), Justin Houston (70), DeMarco Murray (71), Martez Wilson (72), Allen Bailey (86), Kenrick Ellis (94), KJ Wright (99), Sam Acho (103), Karl Klug (142), Greg Romeus (226), Tom Keiser (undrafted) or Mark Herzlich (undrafted). Time and time again it seemed like there were multiple players who addressed the perceived major needs who either fell to the Pats or who were within easy reach.

2. And the Pats passed on all of them. Over and over. No true DL drafted at all. One unheralded situational pass rusher and STer taken in the 6th round. 3 defensive players taken out of 9 overall picks. So what does all this mean? Some possibilities which have been suggested include:

- BB is arrogant beyond belief and thinks he can put together a top defense with leftovers and castaways
- BB is clueless about the true needs of the team, which are readily evident to luminaries such as John Clayton, Pete Prisco and Ron Borges
- BB is perverse and likes to do the contrary of what everyone says the Pats should do, to the point of passing up good players
- BB is focused on accumulating future draft picks to the point of passing up good players
- BB didn't like the DL and DE/OLB options in this much-heralded class
- BB doesn't expect rookies to contribute much for 2011, especially given the labor situation
- BB prioritizes the secondary over the defensive front 7
- BB felt that the true priority for the team was not the defensive front 7, but getting younger and more physical on offense
- BB felt that there is more talent on defense than most of us appreciate, and that what is needed is not an infusion of new young blood but time and experience

There may be some truth to several of these perspectives. My favorites:

1. The talent on defense theory. The Pats have a strong nucleus of defensive playmakers. Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Devin McCourty are pro bowl cornerstones of the defense. Brandon Meriweather is a 2 time pro bowler. Pat Chung may be an emerging pro bowler. Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes are promising players who should develop and become defensive mainstays. Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden are solid pro bowl caliber veterans who should give a big boost to the defense in 2011. And there are some up and coming youngsters including Ron Brace, Brandon Deaderick, Eric Moore, Kyle Arrington, Dane Fletcher, Sergio Brown and Kyle Love. BB seems to feel like there is a lot of talent on defense, and that experience is needed more than young blood. The defense did perform quite well during the second half of 2011 in terms of turnovers, sacks and points allowed.

2. The offense takes priority theory. There is no doubt that BB waited too long before starting to rebuild the defense, and that the defense got old. Most people perceive the defense as a bigger problem than the offense, particularly with two 500 point seasons in the past 4 years. But the defense is young and athletic, whereas the offense is showing its age. Tom Brady will be 34. The Pats had 3 RBS over 33 on the roster. Deion Branch is near the end of his career. And the OL in particular is reaching the end of a long run, with Stephen Neal retiring, Nick Kaczur and Matt Light near the end of their careers and FAs, Dan Koppen on the downside of his career, and Logan Mankins an angry free agent who may be hard to sign. Only Sebastian Vollmer was a safe long term fixture on the all-important OL. The unexpected emergence of BJGE and Danny Woodhead gave a boost to the RB corps, but there was certainly a need for youth and depth.

So let's look at what BB did in the 2011 draft. The Pats came in to the draft with 9 picks: 17, 28, 33, 60, 74, 92, 125, 159 and 193. They also had only 5 picks for 2012 (1 each in the first 5 rounds). What they came away was 7 picks in 2012 (2 each in rounds 1 and 2, and 1 each in the next 3 rounds) along with:

17. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado. 6'8" 320#. "The expected surprise". With the draft falling perfectly to 17 and lots of defensive otpions on the board, it was too good to be true, so of course BB did something unexpected. 4 year player, tremendous upside, high character kid, athletic freak, hard worker, coachable. Considered a top 10 pick by the Pats. The Pats are new set at the all-important OT position for the foreseeable future with Solder and Vollmer as potential all-pro bookends and 6'7" Mark LeVoir and Steve Maneri as backups. Matt Light may stay on for 1-2 years to ease Solder's transition and provide stability, and could also move to LG depending on the Mankins situation. Nick Kaczur, Quinn Ojinnaka and Marcus Cannon (see below) also provide flexibility.

[28. Many people wanted Mark Ingram here once Ingram fell. The Pats apparently preferred Shane Vereen, and essentially traded Ingram and the 28th pick to NO for Vereen and the 56th pick and a 2012 1st round pick.]

33. Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia. 6'1" 198#. "The teaser". Consensus top-20 pick at CB entering the 2010 season who was dinged up and missed most of his senior year. Provides flexibility at CB and FS, insurance in case Brandon Meriweather leaves after 2011, and long term bookend CBs with Devin McCourty, much as Solder provides a long term bookend solution along with Sebastian Vollmer. The consensus seems to be that this was a solid pick, but that BB may have erred in passing up a pass rusher such as Jabaal Sheard or Brooks Reed, and teased us by keeping those guys just within reach. I'm guessing that BB felt that Dowling was just a better player and better value than those guys (I personally didn't like either Sheard or Reed for the Pats), and that Da'Quan Bowers was too much of a risk.

56. Shane Vereen, RB, Cal. 5'10" 210#. "The puzzler". A lot of people would have cheered if the Pats had taken Ingram at 28 or Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure (who went one pick later). But Ivan Fears pretty much publicly said that the Pats weren't high on either. Vereen fits the classic mold for the Pats - tough, versatile, durable, a good blocker and receiver who can do a lot of things well. He's not really any smaller than Ingram and has better speed. He will be a multi-purpose threat for the Pats, and could be a more durable 3-down version of Kevin Faulk.

[60. Traded to Tennessee for 73 and 138. Obviously, BB didn't like the values on the board at #60. Who did he pass up between 60 and 73: RBs Leshoure, Daniel Thomas and DeMarco Murray; WRs Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb and Greg Little; CB Brandon Harris; DT Terrell McClain; and DE/OLBs Dontay Moch, Justin Houston and Marquez Wilson. Clearly the Pats did not feel that any of those guys were worth taking at #60, and they traded down at a discount, suggesting that BB did not like the remaining values.]

73. Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU. 5'11" 230#. "The reach". A big back to replace Sammy Morris and give the Pats a pounder which they've lacked since at least 2008, and possibly 2004. Considered a reach by many draftniks. A team captain as a junior who came on strong. He'll either turn out to be a classic reach, or he'll end up being a Vollmer-like guy who is picked earlier than projected and who turns out to be worth every penny.

74. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas. 6'7" 245#. "The shocker". Either the worst or the best pick, depending on your perspective. A stunner, kind of like the Randy Moss trade in 2007. An undeniable 1st round talent and possibly the best pro talent at QB in the draft, who fell for undefined "character" reasons despite being a coaches' son and chalkboard junkie. BB seems to have obviously bonded with Mallett. He will be anything from a wasted pick to a guy who lights a fire under Brady to future trade bait to just possibly the long term successor to QB that the Pats have never before had.

[92 and 125. Traded to Oakland for a 2012 1st. Again, ridiculed by many draftniks/mediots as BB gunning for the future at the expense of the present. But there has already been evidence that BB wasn't wild about the values in the 2011 draft here.]

138. Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU. 6'5" 350#. "The medical redshirt". A consensus 2nd round talent prior to being diagnoses with Non-Hodgkins's lymphoma a week ago, Cannon dropped like an enormous stone. He's more of a road grader than one would usually project to the Pats but has very nimble feet for a guy his size, and is an undeniable talent. Gives the Pats versatility at tackle and guard, and pretty much makes the Pats set for the long term at 3/5 OL positions: Solder at LT, Cannon at RG, Vollmer at RT. The prospect of Cannon and Vollmer on the right side together is very intimidating. They will just destroy opposing DLs. Will probably start next year on PUP, and could spend a year on IR, but will likely be the starting LG for 2012. I think this is a great pick, because it solidifies so much of the OL for the Pats and gives them a tremendous talent base. If Mankins can be kept then 4/5 of the OL is set for the next 5 years, and will be the best in the NFL. Even if Mankins leaves, the Pats are now in a much stronger position.

159. Lee Smith, TE, Marshall. 6'6" 266#. "The mauler". A physical force of a blocking TE. Smith should eventually replace Alge Crumpler as the blocking TE and 3rd member of the Pats TE corps along with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This effectively completes the TE position for the next decade as one of the strengths of the team.

194. Markell Carter, DE/OLB, Central Arkansas. 6'4" 250#. "The STer, part I". This is normall where BB loads up on developmental guys with ST capabilities, and Carter fits the bill. He'll have every opportunity to win a spot on ST and then work his way into the rotation. A low risk pick.

219. Malcolm Williams, DB, TCU. 5'10" 204#. "The STer, part II". See Markell Carter. Same story, but at DB. Will have every chance to work his way onto the team at ST, a la Kyle Arrington and Sergio Brown. Provides versatility at CB and FS. A low risk pick.

What BB did was to get younger and more physical on offense, and to either replace or anticipate replacing a number of key personnel:

- Stephen Neal, RG - replaced with a bigger, more physical, more talented version in Marcus Cannon. A classic Pats strategy of taking a guy who dropped due to medical issues.
- Matt Light, LT - eventually replaced with a bigger, more talented version in Nate Solder.
- Alge Crumpler, TE - eventually replaced with an equally physical specimen in Lee Smith.
- Sammie Morris, RB - replaced with a younger version in Stevan Ridley.
- Kevin Faulk, RB - replaced with a younger, bigger, more physical version in Shane Vereen.

At this point the Pats seem to be pretty much set on offense at QB, RB, TE and OT. The interior OL and WR positions can still use some tweaking, but are not glaring holes at the moment. On defense, DB seems to be set and there is considerable depth and talent at DL and ILB. We're still missing that elusive pass rusher and a Seymour-like impact DE.

All things considered, I think this is a pretty good draft. IBWT.

(continued due to size limitations)

 

[mayoclinic]

(continued from OP)

What Does the Future Portend?

Remember, in previous years FA preceded the draft, and BB's modus operandi was to plug holes in FA so that he could have the luxury of acquiring talent in the draft without focusing on needs. TE in 2010 was an exception. This year FA has not yet taken place due to the labor situation, so BB has not had that option. UDFAs cannot be contacted because of the lockout. So we are in an unprecedented position. Nevertheless, I think it is fair to assume that whenever things sort out the Pats will address some of their unmet needs via UDFAs and FA. There will certainly be areas to upgrade for 2012 and beyond.

[u[UDFAs[/u]

Here's one list of some of the better UDFA's currently available:

http://www.draftcountdown.com/Results/Undrafted.php

Some UDFAs currently available who I could see being on the Pats' radar include:

- Tom Keiser, DE/OLB, Stanford. 6'5" 245#. Long and athletic. Smart. Good kid. Definitely a Pats kind of UDFA.
- Mark Herzlich, LB, Boston College. 6'4" 240#. Another medical case, a top 20 pick prior to his sarcoma. Tremendous intangibles.
- Cedric Thornton, DE/DT, Southern Arkansas.
- Willie Smith, OT, East Carolina. 6'5" 310#. Very athletic developmental LT, lots of upside.
- David Mims, OT, Virginia Union. 6'8" 340#. Massive developmental guy with surprising agility.
- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St. / Joe Lefeged, S, Rutgers. Blue collar guys who could be James Sanders replacements in 2012.
- Terrance Tolliver, WR, LSU. There's room for a devleopmental WR to keep the pipeline going.
- Ricardo Lockette, WR, Fort Valley St. A speedster at WR and on STs.
- Jamar Newsome, WR, UCF. Big, strong, high upside.
- Jake Kirpatrick, C, TCU / Ryan Bartholomew , C, Syracuse / Ryan Pugh, C, Auburn / Kris O'Dowd, C, USC. Developmental centers are always good.
- Will Yeatman, TE/OT, Maryland. This year's Steve Maneri. Great upside. Could be a stud at TE or OT.
- Graig Cooper, RB, Miami. Lots of upside. Depth at RB is always good.
- Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia / Derrick Locke, RB, Kentucky. Versatile all-purpose weapons. Depth at RB is always good.
- Ryan Winterswyk, DE/OLB, Boise St. / Brandon Bair, DE/OLB, Oregon - developmental guys who could undergo position changes. Bair is an imposing presence.
- Ugo Chinasa, DE/OLB, Oklahoma St. / Stephen Friday, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech. Developmental pass rushers.

If history has anything to say, the Pats should get 1-2 guys who make the roster from UDFAs. Perosnally, I'd go after Ricardo Lockette (6'2" WRs with 4.37 speed are worth taking a chance on, and he has ST ability), Tom Keiser, Mark Herzlich, Will Yeatman and one of the centers.

Free Agency

Who knows when it will start at this point, but there will be free agency at some point, under some rules. Areas which I could see the Pats addressing include:

- WR: Brad Smith and Mike Sims-Walker look like nice targets to me.
- DE/OLB: I doubt the big names will hit FA (Tamba Hali, LaMarr Woodley), but there will be some lesser values. Could Vernon Gholston be worth a look? He had talent, and BB is a master at finding ways to use talent. It might be worth a look just to drive the Jets fans crazy, the way we did with Danny Woodhead.

2012 Draft

The Pats have double picks in the first 2 rounds, and will once again have the luxury of doing whatever they want in the 2012 draft. With QB, OT, TE,RB, ILB and DB likely set, the biggest areas of need which are likely to get attention (or not) in 2012 include WR, OG/C and DE/OLB. There some strong prospects for 2012, including:

- OG David DeCastro, Stanford. 6'5" 312#. The second coming of Logan Mankins, only better.
- OC Mike Brewster, Ohio St. 6'5" 295#. Would have been the top rated center in 2011 if he had declared.
- OC Peter Konz, Wisconsin. 6'5" 313#. Classic big, powerful center who can handle the 3-4 NTs.
- DE/OLB Vinny Curry, Marshall. 6'5" 250#. Sack artist who has the strength to set the edge and the agility to cover.
- DE/OLB Andre Branch, Clemson. 6'5" 260#. Classic Pats measurables. Looked comfortable dropping into space in 2010.
- DE Quintin Coples, North Carolina. 6'6" 272#. Another elephant possibility.

WR is particularly likely to be stacked next year. Justin Blackmon and Ashley Jeffery will likely go top 15 or higher, just like AJ Green and Julio Jones this year. But there is much more depth for 2012, and a number of guys who are top talents could fall to the late 1st or early 2nd round. Some guys who come to mind include Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M), Chris Owusu (Stanford), Juron Criner (Arizona), Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) and Greg Childs (Arkansas).

That's it. Sorry to be so long winded. All things considered, while the draft was not what I expected, I think that when we look back this will turn out to be a very good draft, and the Pats have once again positioned themselves to be ahead of the rest of the NFL. I'm happy, even if they didn't do what I wanted or take my guys.

Thoughts?

 

[Patsfaninpa]

Good job Mayo. Don't want to put words in your mouth. But, you can put me in the puzzled we didn't get a two gap de and an olb too. Well, not really olb. We don't draft them even when they seem a good fit. And, I don't think there were any good fits this year. I had us picking Solder at 28. Glad we got him. My only disagreement with BB is at 28.:fight: I would have either traded up to get Cam Jordan. Or picked Heyward. I didn't see much of Darling. But, he seems like a fine pick. I'll trust BB on that one. Awfully, big of me.ROFL

The rb's. I thought we would address this in free agency. But, if Fears likes Vereen that's ok by me. I had us taking Ridley in the 4th in my mock. So, not surprised there. I wanted a wr. But, I would be willing to bet we target a pretty good one in free-agency. We're in good shape cap wise.

I'm thrilled with the Mallett pick. Not sure what drugs he took. If it's just weed. No biggie. If the other rumors out there coke/meth. Uh oh. Just an FYI everyone may have forgotten about. BB's son was busted for having weed. He may not look aghast at people who test positive for that. He did grow up in the 60's. I had Mallett the 2nd qb behind Gabbert. He completed 64.7pct with 32 tds and 12 int against a killer SEC sked. Has htat pro arm the other qb's dont have. Leadfooted. But, I don't take that as a total negative if he learns how to read defenses. I want my qb in the pocket. Not roaming around and turning the ball over. Time will tell. My guess is he's be traded after two season here for somebody's first rounder in 2013. Al Davis

I like the Cannon pick. The Jets challenged us to run the ball in the playoff game. And, we refused to. That's gotta change. Line this dude up next to Vollmer and go right at em. They won't be able to play 6-7 db's against us any more. Just, a basic nickel if that. And, A.Hernandez is a nightmare matchup if we're running the ball well.

Gotta love getting that 1st and 2nd. Atlanta's not going to hand the division to NO. So, they could be a wild card and right back in the same boat next year. On the road to start the playoffs. I think that oak pick will be around 40-42. I don't see them being 8-8 next year. They ain't going 6-0 in their division again.

 

[BostonTim]

Other benefits of long, split posts? You can get a +2!


Cheers, BostonTim

 

[City Point]

I like getting two rb's. As the previous poster said, the Jets put 7 dbs out there in the playoffs and the Pats couldn't get anything going. I'm not a huge BJGE fan. Vereen adds a dynamic threat out of the backfield but I'm not sold on Ridley esp where he was taken.

I've talked myself into Solder. Position of need that's hard to fill, high character, smart kid etc...

The pick of Ras-I probably signals BB's lack of faith in Darius Butler and Wilhite. I'm not so sure he can play safety but we'll see. I'm skeptical of this pick.

I like the value of the Mallet pick but he reminds me of Bledsoe. If he can't learn to move out the pocket and throw effectively on the run I don't see him being Bradys successor. Good trade bait possibiliy though.

I'm definitely not feeling as good as I was last year at this time but I'm cautiously optimistic. IBBWT

 

[mayoclinic]

Great thoughts.

Good job Mayo. Don't want to put words in your mouth. But, you can put me in the puzzled we didn't get a two gap de and an olb too. Well, not really olb. We don't draft them even when they seem a good fit. And, I don't think there were any good fits this year. I had us picking Solder at 28. Glad we got him. My only disagreement with BB is at 28.:fight: I would have either traded up to get Cam Jordan. Or picked Heyward. I didn't see much of Darling. But, he seems like a fine pick. I'll trust BB on that one. Awfully, big of me.ROFL

I didn't like the "passrushers" in this draft:

- Von Miller - was going top 5, and thought he was a one trick pony and too light to play in our system
- Robert Quinn - thought he was a 4-3 DE only
- Aldon Smith - thought he was probably a 4-3 DE
- Justin Houston - didn't like him at all, thought he was a 4-3 DE
- Jabaal Sheard - thought he was really stiff and only a 4-3 DE
- Brooks Reed - thought he was a one trick pony and overrated

To me, there were only 4 guys of real interest:

- Cam Jordan. My binky as an elephant/hybrid.
- Da'Quan Bowers. My other binky as an elephant/hybrid. But the medical issue was obviously a huge one.
- Greg Romeus. I liked him a lot as an elephant/hybrid coming into 2010. But the medical issues were obviously significant.
- Ryan Kerrigan. Loved his motor. Not great physical skills, but wouldn't have put it past him.

But I can certainly argue that Nate Solder at LT is less risky than moving up a spot or two to get Ryan Kerrigan and trying to convert him to 3-4 OLB.

As for 3-4 DEs, I wasn't as wild about this class as some. My take:

- I thought JJ Watt was overrated. Only 1 year of tape. A nice motor, but I think he is more of a big 4-3 DE. Not strong enough to 2-gap. I thought #11 was a reach.
- I didn't like Cam Heyward. Thought he was inconsistent. Nice length, but not physical enough. I was glad to see Pittsburgh take him at 31.
- Muhammad Wilkerson. I liked him 6-8 months ago when he was unknown and a 3rd rounder. I thought he got overhyped, with Reiss even suggesting we take him at 17. I like him better than Watt or Heyward, but not so much that I was crying about losing him.
- I didn't like Cam Jordan as a 3-4 DE. Didn't think he was big enough to take the bounding. I liked him as a hybrid.

The guys that I liked on the DL:

- Marcell Dareus. But he was always going top 5 and was out of reach.
- Nick Fairley. If you really wanted a Seymour replacement, I thought he was the guy. I would have traded 17+74 to Minnesota and grabbed him at 12 if he was the target (Minny could probably have gotten Ponder at 16, and would have wanted their 3rd round pick back). We still could have gotten Mallett with the trade back from 60 to 73, and maybe gotten Ridley later on. But I can understand if BB decided that Fairley was either too much of a one-gapper or too much of a risk.
- Marvin Austin. Lots of upside. But I understand passing on him. Lots of risk.
- Jarvis Jenkins. A lot of people saw Jenkins in the 56-60 range. He went earlier than I expected, and I would not have taken him at 33.
- The "super jumbo" guys - Phil Taylor and Kenrick Ellis. Taylor went too high at 22. I kept hoping we would take Ellis, but BB looked at him and obviously decided to pass, so I have to defer to his judgment.

So all in all, I'm not that shocked about passing on the DLs. The ones I liked went too high or had risk factors, and we passed on the guys I wasn't crazy about.

The rb's. I thought we would address this in free agency. But, if Fears likes Vereen that's ok by me. I had us taking Ridley in the 4th in my mock. So, not surprised there. I wanted a wr. But, I would be willing to bet we target a pretty good one in free-agency. We're in good shape cap wise.

I had us taking RB day 3. My target was Johnny White at 125, and White went #132. I would have been happy with that. I always had Shane Vereen in the 3rd round as an option if the Pats wanted to go RB day 2, and I thought that Vereen was the best fit for the Pats. I've always liked him and thought he was a good fit for the Pats. 56 was a tad higher than I had in mind, but the Pats have never worried about being aggressive in targeting the guys they like, and if they liked him that much I'm thrilled.

I did not have Ridley on my radar. I had Alex Green from Hawaii, Stanley Haviili from USC and Harper from Clemson as my big back targets. Good job mocking Ridley in the 4th. I totally missed that one.

I'm thrilled with the Mallett pick. Not sure what drugs he took. If it's just weed. No biggie. If the other rumors out there coke/meth. Uh oh. Just an FYI everyone may have forgotten about. BB's son was busted for having weed. He may not look aghast at people who test positive for that. He did grow up in the 60's. I had Mallett the 2nd qb behind Gabbert. He completed 64.7pct with 32 tds and 12 int against a killer SEC sked. Has htat pro arm the other qb's dont have. Leadfooted. But, I don't take that as a total negative if he learns how to read defenses. I want my qb in the pocket. Not roaming around and turning the ball over. Time will tell. My guess is he's be traded after two season here for somebody's first rounder in 2013. Al Davis

Good points. The best thing for me about the Mallett pick is that BB seems to have bonded with him. Likes his coaches' background and football junkie attitude. He could end up being another Rothlisberger (though hopefully not such a meathead). Great risk/reward pick. I suggested a couple of months ago that the Pats could take a QB as high as 33 if they felt the value was too good to pass up. I think we'll get value for Mallett - whether in trade, as a backup, or as an eventual successor to Brady - so I'm not terribly concerned.

I like the Cannon pick. The Jets challenged us to run the ball in the playoff game. And, we refused to. That's gotta change. Line this dude up next to Vollmer and go right at em. They won't be able to play 6-7 db's against us any more. Just, a basic nickel if that. And, A.Hernandez is a nightmare matchup if we're running the ball well.

The Cannon pick is my personal favorite of this draft. Cannon and Seabass on the right side will be just as intimidating to opposing defenses as Suh and Fairley will be to opposing offenses. They will manhandle and destroy DLs. Imagine playing Indy. Any time we want we can run right side and pick up 5+ yards. Any time.

The increased beef on OL and at RB and TE make us less one-dimensional and that is good. I've been clamoring for a more physical and less one-dimensional offense for years. The TEs last year were a great start. The process looks to be continuing. A big, physical mauler of a WR will be the last element (Jeff Fuller in 2012, please).

Gotta love getting that 1st and 2nd. Atlanta's not going to hand the division to NO. So, they could be a wild card and right back in the same boat next year. On the road to start the playoffs. I think that oak pick will be around 40-42. I don't see them being 8-8 next year. They ain't going 6-0 in their division again.

I love the extra picks. I completely agree about Oakland - they will be at best the #3 team in the AFC West, and they won't beat SD twice next year, for sure. Just being able to root against the Raiders makes me feel better. I admire the Saints as much as any organization (other than the Pats) in the NFL, but both Atlanta and Tampa Bay did a fine job of improving themselves, and they are in for a dogfight. A don't care if their pick is late 1st, there will be more value in 2012 than there was next year. That pick could get us a David DeCastro or Jeff Fuller kind of impact player. Love it.

BTW, Charlie Casserly rates the Pats draft as the best overall. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

 

[The Gr8est]

Excellent job mayo.

My thoughts:

BB has quite often been a contrarian, if he sees the strength of a draft in one area, he'll let the other teams fight over that and mine the areas that they are neglecting. Thus the offensive flavor this year.

It may not just be THAT however, there is talk of the Pats changing up their offense and this draft goes a long way towards doing just that. The prolific Pats offense of the past few seasons has been just that; prolific, but predicable and too pass oriented. The Rats dared us to run in the playoffs and we were not able to take advantage.

The RBs were down to BJGE and Woodhead as the reserves were old, fragile, or otherwise unavailable. It isn't advisable to wear down your RB as much as we were forced to do with those two, and Woodhead in particular, will not have a long career if he is continually used that way. Adding Vereen and Ridley, and hopefully an encore season from Faulk will give us more bodies to share the burden as well as disparate, though complementary, skill sets that an imaginative OC can use to gr8 advantage; kind of like what the Saints did in their SB winning year. If we can have a more traditional running threat, then TFB can take the snaps from center and give the defense more to have to be concerned with.

We didn't add a WR this draft, but maybe a contrite Randy Moss would be a nice addition for a year or two. As long as he is willing to bide his time and be a team player, he will be a constant threat to explode on a bomb at any time, and this time it will be harder to guess when it is coming.

Adding Solder and Cannon will add much needed youth and power to the aging OL and next year, conveniently, the Pats have four top picks in a year that looks strong at C. Sign Mankins to a long term deal and pick a top center next year and BB has overhauled the shaky OL into an area of strength in one year.

On defense, the worries about the deficiencies may have been a bit overstated. We all know the Bodden and Ty Warren will be returning, but there were a whole lot of other players who were quite dinged up, such as , reportedly TBC, that we were unaware about. We have added a lot of young players recently, and maybe a chance to gel without adding any more inexperienced players, would pay more dividends than too large an injection of youth. BB did a toss nice bone to the defense in Ras-I Dowling, an ideal sized player to an area that could use a boost, and who has the versatility to help in multiple roles in the defensive backfield.

During the workups to the draft we discussed many different DL choices and it was hard to fit in more than one where we would not have to cut a potentially useful player. Without a lot of solid pass rushers, who were not limited as players overall, just adding defensive linemen often resulted in duplication of talents that we already had.
Consider also how many of the DL were available for us vs the Rats in the playoffs; we were literally signing guys off the street because we were so banged up, and the healthy players were not getting much rest. Good health and another year of experience will go a long way towards solving a lot of our defensive woes.

Considering that BB has kept us stocked up in extra high picks for the next draft, and after considering what we got in this draft with an open mind, I am as enthusiastic as ever about the upcoming season. BB drafted just as he intended to do, regardless of whether we expected it to be that way.

 

[Hawg73]

BTW, Charlie Casserly rates the Pats draft as the best overall. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day, so theoretically that means Charlie could be correct just this once.

 

[bob]

Mayo, you put in a lot of work around here!

 

[mayoclinic]

Excellent job mayo.

My thoughts:

Gr8 thoughts!

BB has quite often been a contrarian, if he sees the strength of a draft in one area, he'll let the other teams fight over that and mine the areas that they are neglecting. Thus the offensive flavor this year.

I agree. BB evaluates the market. Buy low, sell high. Everyone went crazy on the DLs. He found values elsewhere.

It's interesting, as the media (and fans) have gotten more interested and knowledgeable about the draft process it becomes harder and harder to find guys who have been "overlooked" in the draft process. I had Muhammad Wilkerson identified as a target of interest 8 months ago. By 3-4 months ago Rob Rang had him as a 1st round talent who would go in the 2nd round. By March he was going top 15 in some mocks. It's just very hard for guys to fly totally under the radar.

But what the intense draft scrutiny has created is an opportunity to find values by virtue of overanalysis. There are only 32 spots/round, other than comp picks. For every guy who rises, someone has to fall. Prospects get overanalyzed, or fall for medical or other issues. Rumors fly right before the draft as teams jockey to get prospects pushed down to them. Ryan Mallett fell by virtue of overanalysis. Marcus Cannon fell for last minute medical concerns, which teams didn't have time to fully evaluate. Both were 1st/2nd round prospects.

It may not just be THAT however, there is talk of the Pats changing up their offense and this draft goes a long way towards doing just that. The prolific Pats offense of the past few seasons has been just that; prolific, but predicable and too pass oriented. The Rats dared us to run in the playoffs and we were not able to take advantage.

The RBs were down to BJGE and Woodhead as the reserves were old, fragile, or otherwise unavailable. It isn't advisable to wear down your RB as much as we were forced to do with those two, and Woodhead in particular, will not have a long career if he is continually used that way. Adding Vereen and Ridley, and hopefully an encore season from Faulk will give us more bodies to share the burden as well as disparate, though complementary, skill sets that an imaginative OC can use to gr8 advantage; kind of like what the Saints did in their SB winning year. If we can have a more traditional running threat, then TFB can take the snaps from center and give the defense more to have to be concerned with.

I'm all for a more physical and more diverse offense. I've been calling for that since 2009. The talent level in the NFL is too good not to adjust. The spread offense which was devestating in 2007 was too predictable in 2009, and was easily shut down in the 2nd half. Last year was a big improvement with the TEs and the "too many weapons to cover", but was still too skewed to the passing game. More run/pass balance and more power offense will go a long way to making the offense not only explosive but also unstoppable in crunch time. It will also wear down opposing defenses, and keep our defense off the field. All of those things are good.

We didn't add a WR this draft, but maybe a contrite Randy Moss would be a nice addition for a year or two. As long as he is willing to bide his time and be a team player, he will be a constant threat to explode on a bomb at any time, and this time it will be harder to guess when it is coming.

Given Randy's professed love for BB, I think bringing him back for a year or two is a real option. I wouldn't be averse to it. He's not going to get that huge long term contract, so maybe he'll stop worrying about it so much, and focus on rehabbing his image by being a team player.

Adding Solder and Cannon will add much needed youth and power to the aging OL and next year, conveniently, the Pats have four top picks in a year that looks strong at C. Sign Mankins to a long term deal and pick a top center next year and BB has overhauled the shaky OL into an area of strength in one year.

It's amazing how quickly BB can overhaul an area. RB has been almost completely overhauled in 9 months. TE 13 months ago was a disaster, now its one of the greatest strengths of the team. ILB is a major strength. Just amazing. I think that OL will be completely fixed for the long term a year from now.

On defense, the worries about the deficiencies may have been a bit overstated. We all know the Bodden and Ty Warren will be returning, but there were a whole lot of other players who were quite dinged up, such as , reportedly TBC, that we were unaware about. We have added a lot of young players recently, and maybe a chance to gel without adding any more inexperienced players, would pay more dividends than too large an injection of youth. BB did a toss nice bone to the defense in Ras-I Dowling, an ideal sized player to an area that could use a boost, and who has the versatility to help in multiple roles in the defensive backfield.

During the workups to the draft we discussed many different DL choices and it was hard to fit in more than one where we would not have to cut a potentially useful player. Without a lot of solid pass rushers, who were not limited as players overall, just adding defensive linemen often resulted in duplication of talents that we already had.

Consider also how many of the DL were available for us vs the Rats in the playoffs; we were literally signing guys off the street because we were so banged up, and the healthy players were not getting much rest. Good health and another year of experience will go a long way towards solving a lot of our defensive woes.

I actually think that Kade Weston could be our new impact rookie on DL for 2011. Weston is very talented. He has nearly identical size (6'5" 315#) and build to Muhammad Wilkerson, and comes out of the SEC. He is raw, but very talented. Compare their measurables:

- Weston: 6'5" 315#. 4.97 40. 1.63 10 yard split. 4.85 short shuttle. 8.01 3-cone. 29" vertical, 8'01" broad jump. 21 reps @ 225#.
- Wilkerson: 6'4" 315#. 4.96 40. 1.73 10 yard split. 4.59 short shuttle. 7.31 3-cone. 26" vertical, 8'10" broad jump. 27 reps @ 225#.

A lot of people would have cheered if we had taken Muhammad Wilkerson at #28. I'm not sure that Wilkerson will be a significant upgrade over what Weston could bring to the team. The fans and media may have forgotten about Weston, but I'm sure BB hasn't, and I'm sure that his evaluation of Weston, Deaderick and Brace strongly factored in to his calculus as to how aggressively to pursue DL prospects in this draft.

Considering that BB has kept us stocked up in extra high picks for the next draft, and after considering what we got in this draft with an open mind, I am as enthusiastic as ever about the upcoming season. BB drafted just as he intended to do, regardless of whether we expected it to be that way.

Agreed. Again, great thoughts.

 

[mayoclinic]

FWIW, Clifton Brown of the Sporting News gives the Pats an A+ (along with the Lions) for their draft:

No pass rusher, but a slew of talented players led by Nate Solder, Ras-I Dowling, Shane Vereen and Ryan Mallett. Plus they have two picks next year in both the first and second rounds.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/sto...patriots-ace-their-tests-jets-swing-and-miss

 

[midgar8784]

Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day, so theoretically that means Charlie could be correct just this once.

He is sucking up. He falls to Bill's feet at every thought, BB has him on a leash.

 

[midgar8784]

FWIW, Clifton Brown of the Sporting News gives the Pats an A+ (along with the Lions) for their draft:



http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/sto...patriots-ace-their-tests-jets-swing-and-miss

Jets took a D just for FYI.

 

[TipRoast]

Terrific post, Mayo.

I think the big-time WR you referenced is named Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina.

 

[JD10367]

As you point out, 14-2 with all the youth and key injuries ain't too shabby. I think Belichick simply decided that the talent he has on D already was better than the talent he was seeing in the draft, and that he didn't think it made sense to draft defensive guys simply because "the Pats need a pass rusher", only to cut them in camp because they suck more than the guys we have. Instead, he took players who are almost guaranteed to make the roster (two backs to replace two who will probably leave, a TE to replace a vet TE who will probably leave, O-linemen to replace O-linemen who will probably leave, a raw talented QB who will either beat out Hoyer for the backup job or sit at #3 on the depth chart to learn, etc.,.).

The lockout also cannot be ignored (i.e. the point you made about rookies not contributing as much this coming season). Unless something miraculous happens, these kids will miss their rookie minicamps--where a lot of their programming is installed--and won't have coach input, playbooks, workout help, nada. And if the lockout drags on towards training camp... I shudder to think how those teams who truly need rookie help must feel. Hell, there may not even BE a season, as much as it sucks to think about. If that's the case, having those two 1s and two 2s next year seem even better.

No, they didn't get the coveted OLB/passrush help everyone said they needed. Yes, they got help just about everywhere else at key spots like OT, OG, CB, RB... maybe another exception to the OLB drought is wideout, where they didn't pick up anyone to add to the mix. But there's still (hopefully) free agency and trading to be done.

While nothing can be determined for a few seasons, on potential I'd give this draft a solid B for them, around the level of Kansas City's and only bested probably by some teams like Detroit and Green Bay and New Orleans (who I thought made out excellently).

 

[Jewfro]

Terrific post, Mayo.

I think the big-time WR you referenced is named Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina.

I hope we pick up Alshon next year, fits the Pats perfect. Fantastic hands with great size, speed, and athleticism... and not a diva.


Mayo, what do/did you think of Allen Bailey?

I'm still disappointed we don't have a pass-rush to speak of.

 

[MAYHEM]

Are the Pats at 4-5 hbs and 4-5 te's on their roster?

2 high picks at HB and grabbing smith make me think they want to run more. Gronk/smith/Crump may make a good tank set if smith or crump can handle FB.

Hernandez and woodhead can fill in at WR some so I'd guess they roll with 4wr/4hb/4te come gamedays.

 

[mayoclinic]

Are the Pats at 4-5 hbs and 4-5 te's on their roster?

2 high picks at HB and grabbing smith make me think they want to run more. Gronk/smith/Crump may make a good tank set if smith or crump can handle FB.

Hernandez and woodhead can fill in at WR some so I'd guess they roll with 4wr/4hb/4te come gamedays.

Figuring out the roster is going to be a bitch, but I certainly see more of an emphasis on power blocking and the running game. Unless there is roster expansion, the Pats will be very pressed to find room for all the bodies. There will especially be a huge logjam at OL.

Not that you asked for it, but your post begs the question of how the 2011 roster make end up sorting out. So here goes.

Offense:

The Pats have generally carried 24-26 players on offense. In 2010 it was 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 TEs and 9-10 OL.

QB(3): Brady, Mallett, Hoyer. This is a given unless someone goes on PUP/IR, or there is a trade (unlikely). The Pats only carried 2 QBs the past several years, so this is a real squeeze on the rest of the roster. Jonathan Crompton may stick on the PS.

RB(4-5): BJGE, Woodhead, Vereen, Ridley. This is pretty much a given. Thomas Clayton, Shun White and Eric Kettani will get a shot and the Pats could sign a UDFA or FA. But I think there's a good chance they will only carry 4 RBs this year, plus whoever lands on the PS. They essentially operated with only 3-4 RBs most of last season, as they carried an injured Fred Taylor on the roster and Sammie Morris was also injured at times.

WR(5-6): The Pats have carried 6 in the past. Welker, Branch, Tate and Price are a given. Edelman seems very likely, which makes 5. Slater will be on the bubble agian - I've never understood how he keeps surviving, despite his ST prowess. He'll be pushed by a number of people on STs, and is in a contract year. A UDFA or veteran FA signing is definitely a possibility. With 4 TEs likely and the RBs integrated more into the passing game, the Pats could drop down to 5 WRs. Buddy Farnham and Darnell Jenkins are on the PS. One could sneak onto the roster, though I think it's unlikely. Tyree Barnes comes off of military reserve and will also get a look, but is a longshot. This position will be a huge logjam.

TEs(4): Gronkowski, Hernandez, Crumpler, Smith. The first 3 are a given. I think Smith is too valuable not to keep, as he will likely replace Crumpler in 2012-2013. He was drafted for his blocking prowess, and that should be something that he can contribute right away. He'll never make it to the PS, so unless someone goes on PUP/IR it will come down to a roster decision.

OTs(4-5): Vollmer, Solder, Light, LeVoir, Maneri. Light may not be re-signed, but I suspect he will be back. I'm guessing Maneri will make the team off of the PS. LeVoir could be a casualty, but he's been a valuable swing reserve in the past. Kaczur and Ojinnaka could be options here as well as at guard.

OG/C(5-6): Mankins, Connolly, Koppen, Kaczur, Cannon, Ojinnaka, Wendell, Ohrnberger. Thomas Austin may stick on the PS, but there's a huge logjam here. I'm guessing that Cannon starts the year on PUP and may go on IR. Kaczur may or may not be back depending on contract, and Ojinnaka duplicates some of his skill set. Mankins' situation is obviously a huge factor. But I count 13 OLs who could make the roster, and the Pats will be very hard pressed to keep more than 10.

So to keep to 26 players on offense the Pats will likely carry 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 TEs, 5- WRs and 9-10 OLs. It will be hard to get down to that number, and that would limit the team to 24 players on defense, which is going to be very difficult to achieve. There will be some squeezes. WR and OL are the main places I see major work to sort out the bodies.

Defense:

DL(6-9). There will be a logjam here. Vince Wilfork is a given. No one else is 100% safe. Ty Warren, Marcus Stroud, Ron Brace, Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, Brandon Deaderick, Kade Weston, Kyle Love. Marlon Favorite is on the PS. I'm not sure about Daryl Richard's status. Gerard Warren could be brought back, though that seems a long shot. I'm counting Eric Moore under LBs for now, though he also will get time at DE. The team has had problems the past 2 seasons keeping enough healthy DL through the season and there is a lot of depth here, so they may want to carry 8+ DLs, but that will create a roster squeeze, and even then there will be some trouble keeping all of them. So perhaps that is part of why BB didn't seem particularly focused on adding more through the 2011 draft. I'm guessing there will be some surprise cuts and roster moves here.

OLB(4-5): Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich are probably givens. Rumors are BB loves Eric Moore and wants to see what he can do. TBC is not a given this year, though he was reportedly banged up last year and he will probably make the team. A UDFA or veteran FA is a possibility here. Markell Carter will get a chance to earn a spot by virtue of his STs prowess, but the PS is more likely.

ILB(4): Mayo, Spikes, Guyton and Fletcher seem pretty set here. A relative oasis of stability on defense.

S(4-5): Another logjam. Pat Chung, Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders seem set barring injury or trade. Jarrad Page seems likely. Brandon McGowan could be back. Bret Lockett could as well, though that seems unlikely. Sergio Brown performed well in 2010. The Pats snatched up Josh Barrett from the Broncos, and Barrett is a ST demon. Ross Ventrone seems likely to stay on the PS if at all. Rookie Malcolm Williams' best bet is to fight Ventrone for the PS. Ras-I Dowling will also provide some crossover capability at FS.

CB(5-6): You can never have too many DBs, but how to keep them all on your roster is a problem. Barring injury/trade Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, Ras-I Dowling and Kyle Arrington seem set. Arrington played well as a starter under fire in 2010 and is a ST demon, so I can't see him leaving. Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite are in jeapardy. Probably one will make the team as a slot/dime CB, but not likely both. Thad Turner was re-signed from the PS, and will have a battle just holding on to that spot. I'm not 100% sure of Tony Carter's status, but he will probably be squeezed out.

Realistically I see the Pats keeping 8-9 DLs, 8-9 LBs and 9-10 DBs. That makes 25-28 bodies. Hmm ... the math is going to be a problem.

Special Teams:

Stephen Gostkowski and Zoltan Mesko are givens. Shayne Graham did a nice job filling in, but is gone. The Pats have always carried a dedicated LS so Matt Katula is probably safe, though every year I keep hoping that they can save a spot here because things are so tight. The rest of the ST players will come from the roster, and there is a ton of ST talent to choose from.

Summary:

The Pats could easily carry 60 players for 2011. Unless roster expansion occurs, that won't happen. Even without UDFA and FA signings, it's going to be a war getting the roster down to size. The fiercest competition will come at WR, OL, DL and DB. As with every year, unexpected injuries will almost certainly play a role in determining the final outcome, and there will be some late transactions (assuming we ever get to a point where football is played). I can definitely see some bubble players being traded for late round picks given that the Pats have no 6th or 7th round picks in the 2012 draft.

The lockout and potential late start to the season will make it all the more difficult to sort things out. Players already on the roster have a huge advantage in terms of knowing the playbook. Someone like Kade Weston who was on IR last year has had a year to work on strength and conditioning and learn the playbook, which a rooking DL may not get for some time depending on the labor situation. That kind of thing could be a factor in BB's thinking. Who knows at this point when players will come under contract, when there will be free agency, whether there will be OTAs, and how much of a training camp we'll have. Hell, we still don't know if we'll have football for 2011. It's a mess. But once things do get going, there will be an awful lot of work sorting out the talent and the eventual 2011 roster.

Getting back to your post, I'm guessing that there will be more of an emphasis on a smashmouth power game, including power running and blocking. BB obviously wanted to get younger and more physical on offense, and to move away from just a ball control passing game.

 

[mayoclinic]

From Tom Curran, who yesterday was scratching his head about why the Pats didn't take a DL or pass rusher:

The list of 2011 Patriots draft picks needs a parenthetical warning to other NFL coaches at the bottom.

(This draft was conducted by a trained professional with five Super Bowl rings, 10 consecutive seasons finishing in first place and job security equal to the pope. DO NOT ATTEMPT THIS WITH YOUR DRAFT.)

On Friday and Saturday, Bill Belichick drafted a promising cornerback who hasn't been able to stay healthy, a promising quarterback with significant off-field concerns, a promising offensive lineman with cancer and prospects in the sixth and seventh rounds that left armchair draft watchers scrambling to identify. Belichick put his chips on all the numbers every one else chose to stay away from and now he'll let the wheel spin. And if/when he hits on one or two of them, it was all worth it.

http://www.csnne.com/05/01/11/Belic...ing_patriots.html?blockID=514312&feedID=3946

Job security equal to the Pope. ROFL. Wish I'd thought of that one.

 

[mayoclinic]

I saw this elsewhere, and didn't know where to put it.

Imagine the following formation on 3rd and goal from the 2:

Ram it down their throats, or play action to the TEs. Deadly.

I love the idea of the offense getting more smashmouth and physical. Love it.