BSJ's QB assessment for the Pats
THE SKINNY
We think everyone knows the deal here.
Tom Brady will be 42 this season. Two years ago, he was the no-doubt MVP. Last season, he wasn’t in the conversation as
he had his fair share of issues through much of the regular season. Now, whether you (or the team, for that matter) think that was caused by age, decline, or a poor supporting cast, that will lead you into the future at the position. Either you think the clock is ticking and they need to get the Next Guy very soon, or the Patriots still have time to be selective. … Backup
Brian Hoyer will turn 34 this season and is in the final year of his contract. He’s fine as a stopgap, but anything else is pushing your luck. …
Danny Etling, a seventh-round pick last season, was deemed good enough to keep around on the practice squad. Throws a nice ball and showed good legs, but he’s very much a project.
POSSIBLE EARLY TARGETS
Daniel Jones, Duke (6-5, 222, 4.76)
Just 17-19 as a starter for the Blue Devils, but was hampered by a subpar supporting cast. … Jones missed two games in 2018 with a broken clavicle. In 11 starts, he completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,674 yards, 22 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Rushed for 319 yards and three scores. … Very good athlete who can tuck and run, but is sturdy in the pocket and willing to take plays late in the down. … Sees the field exceptionally well and will go through his progressions. Very smart and reads defenses well. … Arm is good enough and has good mechanics. Ball comes out quickly and in rhythm. … Wonder how big his upside is. Doesn’t possess any elite traits. Tough.
READ MORE: Duke OC Zac Roper on QB Daniel Jones’ strengths, weaknesses, and how he’d fit with Patriots
Will Grier, West Virginia (6-2, 217, 4.84)
Former top recruit to Florida but was suspended for a year for PEDs and transferred to West Virginia. … Finished with a passer rating of 113.0. … Tremendous teammate and locker room guy. Teammates will follow him anywhere. … Gunslinger with a solid arm. … Gets into trouble against pressure and can be very streaky. Will have games where he looks unstoppable, and others where it looks like he’ll go undrafted because he doesn’t take care of the ball. … Good deep touch; quick release underneath.
READ MORE: West Virginia’s former OC on Will Grier’s background in Patriots’ offense & QB’s ‘uncommon maturity’
POSSIBLE MIDDLE TARGETS
Clayton Thorson, Northwestern (6-4, 220)
Sort of a poor man’s Daniel Jones — they’re very similar. Good skills but nothing that screams elite. … Teams have concerns with his 58.4 completion percentage and 45 interceptions in his career (15 as a senior). … Many scouts don’t think he improved that much over the course of his career. … Very smart and has upside in a better system with better players.
READ MORE: Clayton Thorson’s OC talks about his development, smarts and potential as a backup to Tom Brady
Ryan Finley, North Carolina State (6-4, 209, 4.70)
Beat out
Brett Rypien for top job at Boise State and then got hurt, graduated, transferred and will now be 25 this season. … Very smart, has no issues running complicated offenses, and is a good leader. … In 2017, he completed 65 percent of his passes, throwing for 3,514 yards and 17 touchdowns. Very accurate against a high level of competition — last year, he had the longest streak of pass attempts without an interception in the FBS with 339. He had not thrown a pick since the Miami game in 2016 before throwing one vs. Notre Dame. That was second in school history to Russell Wilson (379). … Finished by completing 67.4 percent of his throws for 3,928 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. … More of a game manager than a playmaker.
POSSIBLE LATE TARGETS
Brett Rypien, Boise (6-2, 210, 4.95)
Nephew of former NFL QB
Mark Rypien. … Completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 3,705 yards and 30 touchdowns with seven interceptions last season. … Very consistent and polished passer who can function in a variety of schemes. … Knows how to play the game. Can manipulate defenders to make the play work.
Tyree Jackson, Buffalo (6-7, 248, 4.57)
Great athlete with a huge arm, but many teams will be scared off by his accuracy issues as a career 55.8 percent passer. … An ideal candidate to sit on the bench for two or three years. Has
huge upside with the right coaching. … Playmaker. Knows how to make big plays when it counts.
And EDGE assessment
HE SKINNY
This spot is somewhere in the middle of the Patriots’ needs list. The Patriots lost
Trey Flowers and
Adrian Clayborn this offseason, and while they do have youngsters like
Deatrich Wise and
Derek Rivers on the roster (as well as veterans
Michael Bennett and
John Simon), an additional edge defender for New England’s 4-3 could help provide a boost for the pass rush and give the Patriots another layer of depth. It will be tough to replace someone like Flowers, but it’s important to remember he basically took a redshirt year as a rookie in 2015, sitting behind the likes of
Rob Ninkovich,
Jabaal Sheard and
Chandler Jones. Could New England look for a similar young talent to sit for a year or two behind someone like Bennett before following a similar career arc? This draft will provide that answer.
POSSIBLE EARLY TARGETS
Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
Patriots scheme fit: Edge defender, pass rusher
Why he makes sense: Watching him in college, there were some times where he seemed to disappear for stretches, but there were also times where he was one of the most overwhelming defenders on a national championship defense. This 6-foot-4, 264-pound defensive end has some Flowers in his game when it comes to size (Flowers is 6-foot-4, 269 pounds), as well as an ability to hold up against the run, and a knack for getting to the quarterback (11.5 sacks). At this point on the calendar, most mocks have him going in the mid-20s, so if the Patriots are interested in landing Ferrell, they may have to trade up from No. 32. (
Maybe this is where New England gives the Raiders — at 24 and 27 — a call.) But he might be the most realistic and productive name on the board if New England is going to prioritize edge defenders toward the late stages of the first round.
Zach Allen, Boston College
Patriots scheme fit: Edge setter, possible positional versatility as a DT
Why he makes sense: New England hasn’t drafted a BC player for 10 years, but this Connecticut native could be a nice multipurpose defender for the Patriots’ front seven. Allen is a really interesting prospect on a number of levels, including the fact he appears caught in between a bit — at 6-foot-4 and 281 pounds, he might not have the length or explosiveness to be an every-down defensive end in the NFL, but his motor and strength do allow him to show some positional versatility to kick inside on occasion and work as a run defender. He has a knack for making plays (19 batted passes in three years and double-digit tackles for loss in three consecutive seasons), and watching his film, he reminds me a bit of Denver’s
Derek Wolfe, a high-octane defensive lineman who can beat you a few different ways. He’s a Day 2 selection, and while he might have to take a modified redshirt year as a rookie while he adjusts to the NFL, there’s a lot to like about his game.
Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech
Patriots scheme fit: Pass rusher, third-down defender
Why he makes sense: If you are the Patriots and you haven’t gotten a pass rusher at end of the second round, this could very well be the guy. A long and lean edge presence, this 6-foot-5, 271-pounder is the FBS record-holder with 45 career sacks. You might be inclined to grade him on a curve because of the level of competition, but there’s still enough good stuff on film to make him a legit NFL pass-rushing prospect who could be had somewhere between the second and third rounds. He’s still a work in progress when it comes to working as a run defender, but if you’re the Patriots, you could theoretically make him part of a rotation up front as a rookie and let his game evolve from there. There will be questions about a disinvite (an
unvitation?) to the combine because of an incident from his freshman year at Louisiana Tech, and that could drive his draft stock down a bit. But from an on-field perspective, he could be the guy who ultimately helps replace some of Flowers’ production going forward, at least from a pass-rush perspective.
POSSIBLE LATE TARGETS
Chase Winovich, Michigan
Patriots scheme fit: Edge setter, run defender, special teams
Why he makes sense: Watching Winovich play is
exhausting. This 6-foot-3, 256-pounder is always going 100 MPH — a relentlessly high motor who is always around the play. In his last three years with the Wolverines, he had 43 tackles for loss and 18.5 sacks. His size may force him to become more of an outside linebacker than a defensive end in the NFL, so transitioning from college defensive end to NFL outside linebacker could be a challenge. But you can be sure, regardless of what happens, he’ll be going full-tilt all the time. Trying to watch him from a New England perspective, the 3-cone time (6.94) really stands out. There are also elements of Ninkovich (as an edge presence) and
Tedy Bruschi (in terms of his energy and attitude) in his game. He strikes me as the sort of player who, if he’s chosen by the Patriots and ends up making the roster, will become a local folk hero because of the long hair and the gonzo playing style. I can see him becoming a special teams demon as a rookie. In the end, regardless of where he goes, he seems to be an early Day 3 type who will provide an instant jolt of energy to any team that takes him.
Jachai Polite, Florida
Patriots scheme fit: Rotational pass rusher
Why he makes sense: No shortage of opinions when it comes to this 6-foot-2, 258-pounder. He made some really impressive plays in college at a variety of spots — last year, he had 19.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, which made some believe he was ticketed for the first couple of rounds. But he followed that up with a
less-than-impressive combine performance that included him pulling out of drills, alienating teams in interviews and confessing he doesn’t watch a lot of film on himself. The bottom line, from an on-field perspective? There’s pass rushing talent there as an outside linebacker, but based on watching him as a collegian, he would project as a pass-rusher
first and foremost, and then, he could build from there when it came to his edge-setting skills. When it comes to Polite and the Patriots, this could be a case of New England buying low on a Day 3 guy who trashed his own draft stock after he left Florida.
