Divisional Round - Chiefs at Patriots 1/16 4:35pm (CBS)

[king of kings]

Just watched the weather report for Saturday. Upper 30s with mixed precip maybe changing to all snow before the game is over. Normally I pray for that kind of weather in Foxboro, but with KC's ground game does this work to their advantage?

I read freezing rain & some snow . Have to break out the camo rain gear for the game

 

[Hootie2485]

It is hidden now, to see the game you have to choose "unqualified" instead of "qualified", which first requires choosing "best games" instead of "all time best games", and then you have to sort to 2010 because several QBs have 100s in the "unqualified" listing. Why exactly he's "unqualified" now when Roethlisberger didn't throw a single pass in the game is much like the rest of QBR- bereft of explanation. The fact they've tried to hide that specific game away (following the article, most likely) does not change the fact that Charlie Batch did indeed get a 99.9 QBR on his 186 yard, 2 pick game.

But ultimately, ignoring the subjective nature of QBR, the fact that it grossly overvalues run yards and TDs (evident in just looking at the correlation of stat lines and QBRs), and going to the heart of the problem, QBR is a meaningless stat. I say that because, unlike passer rating, it does not have a strong correlation with success or victory. It is not predictive of anything. It basically boils down to some jackoff saying "I feel like the QB contributed strongly to this win" or "I feel like the team carried this QB". You keep saying how Tom Brady earned his low score that game, defending it on the basis of what much of QBR seems to be derived from- cumulative change in expected win probability on a play by play basis. However, change in expected win probability, in addition to not being predictive or useful for any analysis at all, of any kind, is also not representative of the quality of QB play.

The fact that someone changed win probability more with 12 completed passes in a row at the beginning of the game vs later in the game does not make those passes better, nor does it make the play of the QB superior. It's not just that QBR penalizes short passers or anything like that, it's that it's just not *useful*. It's not about "Tom Brady got jobbed" in QBR, it's that if Charlie Batch getting 186 yards and 2 Ints is perfect, what exactly are we supposed to be using QBR for at all? In what situation is it a useful tool for evaluating current QB performance, comparing QBs against each other, evaluating the odds of future success, or anything else?

Only 2 teams in the NFL this year that made the playoffs didn't have QB's that were in the top 13 of total QBR ... Denver and Houston.

If you go through the Total QBR leaders over the years there is actually a very strong correlation between high QBR and winning football games.

 

[Giant Octopodes]

Only 2 teams in the NFL this year that made the playoffs didn't have QB's that were in the top 13 of total QBR ... Denver and Houston.

If you go through the Total QBR leaders over the years there is actually a very strong correlation between high QBR and winning football games.

I think you misunderstood me. Being at least dependent on change in expected win probability, of course winning games is going to be required to have a high QBR (in most cases, though not always, run plays can save you). What I'm saying, though, is that it is not Predictive of success. Sure, you can look back, and say, for the most part, "oh, he had a high QBR, they probably won". You can *Not* look at the average QBR of two Quarterbacks entering a game and see a vast disparity and say "oh, this Quarterback is obviously superior to the other, so I'd expect his team to win". You *can* look at average Passer Rating, see a huge difference, and use that information to predict future success with enough accuracy to make it statistically relevant.

Again, my entire argument is that QBR is fundamentally useless (without useful qualities; of no practical good). If I'm wrong in that, tell me how exactly QBR would be used to where it is relevant. Don't tell me why it's not a bad stat, tell me why I would ever care about it, in short, why it's a good one.

 

[bideau]

I read freezing rain & some snow . Have to break out the camo rain gear for the game

Yes, we've all seen the camo gear and look forward to hearing about it again.

As far as the weather goes, forecasts are ranging from all rain to rain changing to snow. At this point, we just don't know because it will depend on the path of a storm that hasn't even formed yet. We'll have a better idea on Thursday.

 

[imapig]

Yes, we've all seen the camo gear and look forward to hearing about it again.

As far as the weather goes, forecasts are ranging from all rain to rain changing to snow. At this point, we just don't know because it will depend on the path of a storm that hasn't even formed yet. We'll have a better idea on 4pm Saturday.

fyp

 

[bideau]

Yes, we've all seen the camo gear and look forward to hearing about it again.

As far as the weather goes, forecasts are ranging from all rain to rain changing to snow. At this point, we just don't know because it will depend on the path of a storm that hasn't even formed yet. We'll have a better idea on 4pm Saturday.

fyp

For me, it begins at 11:30. I won't have camo gear on, but I'll be dry.

 

[Hootie2485]

I think you misunderstood me. Being at least dependent on change in expected win probability, of course winning games is going to be required to have a high QBR (in most cases, though not always, run plays can save you). What I'm saying, though, is that it is not Predictive of success. Sure, you can look back, and say, for the most part, "oh, he had a high QBR, they probably won". You can *Not* look at the average QBR of two Quarterbacks entering a game and see a vast disparity and say "oh, this Quarterback is obviously superior to the other, so I'd expect his team to win". You *can* look at average Passer Rating, see a huge difference, and use that information to predict future success with enough accuracy to make it statistically relevant.

Again, my entire argument is that QBR is fundamentally useless (without useful qualities; of no practical good). If I'm wrong in that, tell me how exactly QBR would be used to where it is relevant. Don't tell me why it's not a bad stat, tell me why I would ever care about it, in short, why it's a good one.

For instance,

Last year I thought Russell Wilson played a REMARKABLE Super Bowl and was literally the one guy on his team that kept them in the game in a game they were tremendously overmatched (mostly due to inferior coaching / game plan) ...

He was fantastic. (So was Brady, relax). After the game, people on ChiefsPlanet tried telling me "he choked" and "he was awful" and etc etc etc

without any surprise to me, at all, he had a 91 QBR for the game. He was great.

That's why I like QBR. Every time I watch a game I like to predict QBR and see how close I am ... like I said, it's especially fun with Alex Smith because his stat lines are so meager ...

QBR almost always backs up what I think I'm watching ... traditional QB Rating is useless ... QBR at least has content to it

Again, I've already stated, it has its flaws. Clearly it undervalues short passing games ... perhaps it overvalues running plays by QB's, as well ... but, again, it's the best tool out there to determine what kind of game the QB played

it seems like the only game Pats fans will reference is the Weeden game ... and I've yet to hear one person tell me how Tom Brady played good in that game ... I put context to every drive. Every single one. The Pats offense was abysmal in the 1st half ... put up 13 points in 8 drives with 2 of them starting deep in Cowboys territory .. took 5 sacks and fumbled 1 time

...and the 2nd half saw the game over with 13 minutes left in the 4th ... and the two biggest Pats plays were a 60 yard TD to Edelman (where he did the work) and a 10 yard TD to Lewis (where Lewis houdini'd into the end zone on a check down swing pass

seriously

all you guys are doing is looking at 20-27 for 275 and 2 and not putting any context to it and then equating it to 'fail'

when, for the 8th time ... 1st half 13-3 ... 8 drives ... 5 punts ... 2 field goals ... amazing field position ... took 5 sacks and fumbled 1 time ... 1 TD drive was 5 short passes, 1 penalty, 1 13 yard run to the inch line by Lewis, and 1 QB sneak to seal the TD

This game was a game the Pats dominated, easily, despite Tom Brady having almost no role in the game. Seriously. He was graded poorly because he played poorly ... and by the time he started clicking the game was over (Edelman TD).

I watched this game with great interest. I was a Pats fantasy fan boy. I am not trying to bash Tom Brady, the Patriots, or anything ... I am objectively telling you what happened in this game from the eyes of an unbiased fan (who's only bias was he had Tom Brady and Dion Lewis in FanDuel)

---------- Post added at 05:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:56 PM ----------

I grew up a massive Michael Jordan fan ... he had bad games. It's ok to say that. It's ok to acknowledge that Tom Brady practically had nothing to do with the win against Dallas in Dallas earlier this year. It's ok to say, "wow, the Patriots just totally overmatched Dallas in this one and we didn't really need any sort of game out of our all-time great QB!"

It's really not the end of the world.

 

[king of kings]

Yes, we've all seen the camo gear and look forward to hearing about it again.

As far as the weather goes, forecasts are ranging from all rain to rain changing to snow. At this point, we just don't know because it will depend on the path of a storm that hasn't even formed yet. We'll have a better idea on Thursday.

I'm waiting to the day before. I make a final decision. I prefer the snow to freezing rain . I hope your hip not in too much pain from the weather

 

[Hootie2485]

Here's a better example:

Derek Carr.

For two years, on your sister site at CP, a lot of members have bitched about the Chiefs not taking Derek Carr. Talking heads have been all over Derek Carr as a franchise QB. But he isn't. He's nowhere close. In fact, he's actually quite bad.

This is why I like QBR. He was the 23rd rated QB in the NFL. He was below replacement level on the QBR scale. And it's true. But people who don't watch him look at his "flashy" numbers and the occasional flashy pass and conclude, "franchise QB." The truth is, the NFL has very little learning curve for young guys now. The rules are too offense friendly. You come into the league, and you either have it, or you don't. Derek Carr does not have it.

Derek Carr is the reason the Chiefs made the playoffs. KC was in Oakland weeks back and Oakland had the game won ... it was a 2nd and 10 and they blew a coverage on a Crabtree cross route where Crabtree walks into the end zone to go up 2 scores in the 4th and Carr flat out sailed the pass 10 yards over his head ... a 7 yard crossing route. Flat out miss. A JV level pass ... next play he throws an ugly forced "fumble pick" where Muaga runs it to the 1 and the Chiefs tie it up, and then follow it up with a pick 6 on the following drive.

no one remembers that, though ... as after the game the same contingent still pined for Derek Carr and still clamored him as a franchise QB ... he isn't .. it will never happen.

He's not good. He'll never be good.

Two years in, he's been a terrible rated QB via QBR, too. Yet some people think he's a franchise QB. It's so laughable.

I like QBR because it generally backs up what I'm watching ... it passes the "smell" test for me. Again, it's my opinion, and I'm not one to pretend opinion is fact.

 

[bideau]

Here's a better example:

Derek Carr.

For two years, on your sister site at CP, a lot of members have bitched about the Chiefs not taking Derek Carr. Talking heads have been all over Derek Carr as a franchise QB. But he isn't. He's nowhere close. In fact, he's actually quite bad.

This is why I like QBR. He was the 23rd rated QB in the NFL. He was below replacement level on the QBR scale. And it's true. But people who don't watch him look at his "flashy" numbers and the occasional flashy pass and conclude, "franchise QB." The truth is, the NFL has very little learning curve for young guys now. The rules are too offense friendly. You come into the league, and you either have it, or you don't. Derek Carr does not have it.

Derek Carr is the reason the Chiefs made the playoffs. KC was in Oakland weeks back and Oakland had the game won ... it was a 2nd and 10 and they blew a coverage on a Crabtree cross route where Crabtree walks into the end zone to go up 2 scores in the 4th and Carr flat out sailed the pass 10 yards over his head ... a 7 yard crossing route. Flat out miss. A JV level pass ... next play he throws an ugly forced "fumble pick" where Muaga runs it to the 1 and the Chiefs tie it up, and then follow it up with a pick 6 on the following drive.

no one remembers that, though ... as after the game the same contingent still pined for Derek Carr and still clamored him as a franchise QB ... he isn't .. it will never happen.

He's not good. He'll never be good.

Two years in, he's been a terrible rated QB via QBR, too. Yet some people think he's a franchise QB. It's so laughable.

I like QBR because it generally backs up what I'm watching ... it passes the "smell" test for me. Again, it's my opinion, and I'm not one to pretend opinion is fact.

Please do us a favor.....Start a new thread about QBR so we don't have to pollute this thread with it. You have no chance to convince anyone here that it's nothing more than an ESPN propaganda creation.

It would be better to get this thread back on the rails and discuss the upcoming game.

 

[AkPatsFan]

Good god, I have never put anyone on ignore since joining this site, don't make me put you on ignore.

You're not going to convince anyone here that QBR is a meaningful stat so just stop with this shit already.

 

[patsload]

It would be better to get this thread back on the rails and discuss the upcoming game.

Ok, BB will bug the headsets and steal the Chiefs playbook and win, only way they can

/Chiefs fan

 

[Dartgod]

Oh, good, lemme guess. You worship at the altar of ESPN too?

God no. I don't get into stats and breaking down games and all that crap. I enjoy watching the games. I root for my team and hope for the best.

 

[Hootie2485]

Please do us a favor.....Start a new thread about QBR so we don't have to pollute this thread with it. You have no chance to convince anyone here that it's nothing more than an ESPN propaganda creation.

It would be better to get this thread back on the rails and discuss the upcoming game.

Sounds good, I'll keep QBR out of this thread. Only because I think we can be buds.

 

[imapig]

Sounds good, I'll keep QBR out of this thread. Only because I think we can be buds.

Hahahaha




ROFL

 

[yackittysacks]

If the weather is nasty the Chefs have a decent shot at this game. They can run, and the Pats not as well. But I really don't see The Chefs keeping up with the Pats in this game. The Pats are too good, and the QB play is key. And Brady is slightly better then Smith (am I using the coffee guy correct?) I see the Pats covering the spread and putting up 3/4 of the O/U.

 

[Hootie2485]

I respect the hell out of BB and I respect the fact that he'll never try to force anything

I know BB knows 100% New England won't be able to run on KC. It just won't happen. Brady throws 50 passes Saturday.

KC is arguably the best defense in the NFL right now ... but they are especially good against teams with immobile QB's and amazing at stopping the run on 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2. Outside of a patented Brady sneak, I'd be willing to bet that New England passes out of 3rd and short 100% of the time (outside of clock killing if it gets there in the 4th)

if the Pats are going to beat the Chiefs, it's going to be because the Chiefs couldn't handle Brady and his all-time great dink and dunk attack (not an insult)

 

[yackittysacks]

I respect the hell out of BB and I respect the fact that he'll never try to force anything

I know BB knows 100% New England won't be able to run on KC. It just won't happen. Brady throws 50 passes Saturday.

KC is arguably the best defense in the NFL right now ... but they are especially good against teams with immobile QB's and amazing at stopping the run on 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2. Outside of a patented Brady sneak, I'd be willing to bet that New England passes out of 3rd and short 100% of the time (outside of clock killing if it gets there in the 4th)

if the Pats are going to beat the Chiefs, it's going to be because the Chiefs couldn't handle Brady and his all-time great dink and dunk attack (not an insult)

you may have just single handedly sealed the Chefs fate. Bolden goes for 120yrds and 2 TD's

 

[Giant Octopodes]

you may have just single handedly sealed the Chefs fate. Bolden goes for 120yrds and 2 TD's

Close. BB already leaked his strategy, saying how it's important to prepare for folks on the other team's practice squad, as they may be activated before the game, not unheard of. The Pats activate Montee Ball off practice squad at the last second, and he goes for 120 yards and 2 TDs.

 

[305patriotfan]

If the weather is nasty the Chefs have a decent shot at this game. They can run, and the Pats not as well. But I really don't see The Chefs keeping up with the Pats in this game. The Pats are too good, and the QB play is key. And Brady is slightly better then Smith (am I using the coffee guy correct?) I see the Pats covering the spread and putting up 3/4 of the O/U.

I can't believe I'm gonna say this but we actually found more annoying other teams fans than you. I'm stunned