Divisional Round - Chiefs at Patriots 1/16 4:35pm (CBS)

[Hootie2485]

but see, all you're doing is referencing stat lines and not putting them into context ...

I just put Tom Brady's 20-27 game into total context ... his two TD passes were plays made 100% by his skill players (Edelman and Lewis). I'm sure you watched that game, how can you disagree?

And he totally eviscerated his QBR in the 1st half when they punted 5 times in 8 drives, settled for 2 field goals on drives starting deep in Dallas territory, and took 5 sacks and fumbled 1 time.

and after the Edelman 60 yard TD catch (all Edelman after the catch), the game was over, and Brady had no more time (or pivotal passing plays) to rebound from his bad 1st half.

Also, QBR does grade running plays for QBs ... and you referenced a Pryor stat line and a Kaepernick stat line where they had excellent games on the ground. How are you proving a point? You aren't, that's the thing.

Though, I am sure of one thing:

In 2007, when Tom Brady had an 84.5 QBR for the season to EASILY lead the league, QBR was probably the greatest thing ever on Pats Planet, if I were to guess:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/2007

 

[AkPatsFan]

QBR isn't graded that way ...

They both scored mid 20's ... that's a bad game. QBR is a formula. They both graded out poorly. I merely showed to you WHY Tom Brady graded our poorly. His two big plays were both made by his skill players (and try to argue otherwise, it was the Edelman catch & run and the Lewis houdini TD) ...

so, while his stat line is eye popping and is definitely great ... it was aided by two big plays in a blowout game that prevented him from building back his score after a really awful 26 minute start to the game.

It is what it is, man.

He had a 77.4 QBR in their loss to the Jets ... because he had a clutch 4th quarter drive and he was the best player on the field offensively for New England that day.

Against Dallas, he wasn't.

All QBR said that day was Tom Brady didn't have a huge hand in the outcome of the game against Dallas. And he didn't. You cannot argue otherwise, unless you're a total homer. It is what it is.

I realize that QBR doesn't automatically rank Tom Brady #1 in QBR every single season so Patriots fans do not like it. I totally understand that ... but he has had #1 overall finishes, is almost always in the top 10 ...

but again, for the 6th time, I don't think QBR gives enough credit to QB's who utilize the short passing game. Tom Brady is a short passing game QB ... and he's the best short passing game QB in the history of the NFL by an insanely wide margin.

So, I do agree, to a small extent, that QBR is a BIT unfair to Tom Brady.

 

[Darth Despot]

But QBR is the best tool we have to evaluate QB play. 9 of the top 11 made the playoffs ... only 2 teams didn't have a QBR QB ranked top 13 that made the playoffs (Denver / Houston). Both of these teams didn't have a QB who started over 10 games, either (it's a cumulative stat).

Do you work for ESPN, because if you do, honor dictates that I must challenge you to a duel.

 

[imapig]

If anyone thinks QBR is a good source of reference has zero common sense, and IQ less than 50...

 

[TommyD420]

Though, I am sure of one thing:

In 2007, when Tom Brady had an 84.5 QBR for the season to EASILY lead the league, QBR was probably the greatest thing ever on Pats Planet, if I were to guess:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/2007

Again, you're wrong.

We're not jackass honk Chargers fans.

As soon as people heard QBR was going to include some douche in Bristol deciding what "clutch" was, and that it was an integral part of the formula that it would be bullshit.

Brady played a pedestrian Brady game in Dallas. He was fine. The sacks in the first half were not his fault. There were 0 sacks in the second half.

He was ridiculously better than Brandon Weeden in that game, who was on the verge of being benched.

That you would sit there and defend QBR just tells me how limited your football knowledge actually is, and I'm glad you're not the typical Chiefs fan, who usually knows what the **** they're talking about.

 

[Undertaker #59*]

I never cared about QBR or the traditional QB rating for that matter, but stats are not all that important to me.

Just looking for a good game to watch.

 

[chevss454]

That was the exact game I just referenced ...

I watched that game. Brady was abysmal in the 1st half .. took several sacks and fumbled. Despite struggling, they held a 13-3 halftime lead.

And then, Brady propped up his stat line by throwing a TD to Edelman for 59 yards where Edelman had about the best run after catch I've seen all year.

He followed that up by throwing a TD to Dion Lewis where Dion Lewis somehow evaded 6 tacklers and houdini'd his way into the end zone.

I imagine Brady didn't get positive grades for those throws since he had very little to do with the outcome.

So, with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter of this game the score was 27-6. The game was over, and Brady no longer had the chance to improve his QBR, which was weighed down by the abysmal 26 minutes he had to start the game, and was not propped up by his two TD passes since they were largely aided by his skill players ability to make Dallas defenders look silly.

Again, this is not me bashing Tom Brady, this is me being realistic.

Drive charts in the 1st half:

4 plays; punt
5 plays, 14 yards, field goal (forced turnover)
5 plays; punt
5 plays; punt
7 plays; TD
3 plays; punt
4 plays, 16 yards, field goal (forced turnover)

There 1 TD drive started on their 45, was aided by a penalty, 5 short passes, and a 13 yard run by Dion Lewis.

These are just facts. I'm sorry. I've already said that I don't think QBR gives enough credit to QB's who rely on short passes about four times.

---------- Post added at 03:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:00 PM ----------

and again, I think Tom Brady is wonderful ... but he's not going to grade out 90 QBR every single game. I remember this game fondly because, again, he was my FanDuel QB and I was not having fun watching the 1st half of this one ...

if anything, FanDuel caused me to be a huge Tom Brady fan boy this year because for about the first 6 weeks I thought 'deflategate' was going to result in Tom Brady 2007 Part 2. I thought they were going to purposely try and break every record in the book.

---------- Post added at 03:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:04 PM ----------

and again, I think Tom Brady is wonderful ... but he's not going to grade out 90 QBR every single game. I remember this game fondly because, again, he was my FanDuel QB and I was not having fun watching the 1st half of this one ...

if anything, FanDuel caused me to be a huge Tom Brady fan boy this year because for about the first 6 weeks I thought 'deflategate' was going to result in Tom Brady 2007 Part 2. I thought they were going to purposely try and break every record in the book.

We don't pay much attention to QBR bc of it's built-in fallacies. However,
when facing teams in the top 15 in points allowed per game this year:
Chiefs: 2-2
Patriots: 7-2
and the 2 losses for the Pats were without Hightower at LB and 1 was without McCourty & Chung at S. They're all back now.

This is more relevant to us.

 

[AkPatsFan]

In other words..............WE DON'T GIVE A RATS ASS ABOUT QBR.

 

[Dartgod]

Save your breath Hootie.

How you doing man? Some of us missed you during the WS run.

 

[imapig]

We don't pay much attention to QBR bc of it's built-in fallacies. However,
when facing teams in the top 15 in points allowed per game this year:
Chiefs: 2-2
Patriots: 7-2
and the 2 losses for the Pats were without Hightower at LB and 1 was without McCourty & Chung at S. They're all back now.

This is more relevant to us.

Also as soon as the Patriots earned a Bye Bill Belichick went Vanilla with the game plans, and purposely sat players that were injured but could have still played... BB knew a healthy team with a Bye is far more deadly than a banged up team with a Bye and Home field throughout... Bill also knew the only way the Pats had a shot to repeat was to get healthy. That means do the bare minimum, and dont put your players in bad spots... Gronk staying out of the middle was an example... Edelman could have played in the final game and that would have gave us Home field though out, But BB is not scared of Denver in Denver..

 

[Troy_Brown]

I QBR'd Hootie's mom and made his dad watch

 

[Hootie2485]

I QBR'd Hootie's mom and made his dad watch

what did the guy in Bristol determine as your clutchest factor?

---------- Post added at 04:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:07 PM ----------

Save your breath Hootie.

How you doing man? Some of us missed you during the WS run.

couldn't be better as a sports fan! This is the greatest time of my life in that regard. Are you kidding me? The 2015 Royals will probably forever be my favorite team (I mean, wow) ... but this Chiefs team is pretty fun to cheer for, too. The fact that some of those naysayers are still naysaying disgusts me.

Pretty sad that one scumbag prevented me from sharing those WS moments with the rest of the regulars who participated in GDT's all year long ... but I believe in karma, so it is what it is. Hell, if it brings us a Chiefs Super Bowl as well, perhaps it was just destiny. Miss it, though.

---------- Post added at 04:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:09 PM ----------

Save your breath Hootie.

How you doing man? Some of us missed you during the WS run.

couldn't be better as a sports fan! This is the greatest time of my life in that regard. Are you kidding me? The 2015 Royals will probably forever be my favorite team (I mean, wow) ... but this Chiefs team is pretty fun to cheer for, too. The fact that some of those naysayers are still naysaying disgusts me.

Pretty sad that one scumbag prevented me from sharing those WS moments with the rest of the regulars who participated in GDT's all year long ... but I believe in karma, so it is what it is. Hell, if it brings us a Chiefs Super Bowl as well, perhaps it was just destiny. Miss it, though.

---------- Post added at 04:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:09 PM ----------

Again, you're wrong.

We're not jackass honk Chargers fans.

As soon as people heard QBR was going to include some douche in Bristol deciding what "clutch" was, and that it was an integral part of the formula that it would be bullshit.

Brady played a pedestrian Brady game in Dallas. He was fine. The sacks in the first half were not his fault. There were 0 sacks in the second half.

He was ridiculously better than Brandon Weeden in that game, who was on the verge of being benched.

That you would sit there and defend QBR just tells me how limited your football knowledge actually is, and I'm glad you're not the typical Chiefs fan, who usually knows what the **** they're talking about.

I am not even trying to argue with you ... I forgot that bringing up QBR on a Pats board might be a bad idea.

Weeden was quite bad in that game, for sure. The fact of the matter is, Brady did absolutely nothing in that game positive that would reflect in a positive score. The Pats won by default, because they were a much more talented team ...

Unless you think this pass should be graded positively for Mr. Brady :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KW5boWBvsV0

I've already broken down the context of that game for Tom Brady. These aren't Brady insults. It's just pure fact that he did very little in this one-sided game that would result in a good QBR score. But if you guys don't want to be objective, I understand.

 

[HSanders]

One thing I'm curious to see is if if the Pats win the toss and defer, as always, what they will do if they have a legit chance for a drive before the half.

...

Putting KC and Alex Smith in a hole as early as possible is likely part of the approach the staff is taking. Forcing him to throw a lot would be sort of a best-case scenario.

I do think they actually receive if they win the toss, especially if the weather is bad and will be getting worse. Just a hunch. I'm right about what BB will do or what he thinks approximately .00000000000259777134% of the time, so I'm due. ROFL

 

[TommyD420]

Save your breath Hootie.

How you doing man? Some of us missed you during the WS run.

Oh, good, lemme guess. You worship at the altar of ESPN too?

 

[bideau]

I am not even trying to argue with you ... I forgot that bringing up QBR on a Pats board might be a bad idea.

Bringing up QBR on any board is a bad idea.
I won't go postal as others have done because I believe that everyone has the right to make themselves a fool. But if you seriously consider QBR to be a valid stat, then you know very little about football.

I'm assuming you have no idea how it's calculated. There's a reason for that. ESPN refuses to explain how it works. A simple search on the topic will find plenty of people debunking it. I'll give you a jump start:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/11/esp...tom-brady-behind-ryan-fitzpatrick-what-is-qbr

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...6-yard-two-pick-game-has-espns-best-qbr-ever/

 

[Hootie2485]

Charlie Batch's game was not the best QBR game of all-time ... I'm not sure where they even got that.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/0/type/alltime-game

and all-time best seasons:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/0/type/alltime-season

The fact of the matter is, a few media types came out with some articles that made it seem like QBR was picking on Brady and referenced the Dallas game because they did exactly what QBR set out to fix ...

QBR or no QBR ... are you telling me Tom Brady played the game his stat line would suggest that Dallas game?

I mean, seriously ... you'd have to be a real homer to suggest he didn't struggle (as well as the entire offense) the entire first half of that Dallas game.

I remember, I had hundreds riding on Brady on FanDuel that week ... and every week for about the first 1/2 of the season. I was a Brady fantasy fan boy all year long.

---------- Post added at 04:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:43 PM ----------

and by no means do I think QBR is perfect ... I think it totally undervalues short passing QB's (like Tom Brady).

Of course, if you call Tom Brady a "short passing QB" some people take that as an insult. I have no idea why.

I think Tom Brady is a top 3 QB of all-time ... maybe even the best. I don't even understand why people think I'm bashing him. But people are up in arms about the way he was graded in a game against Dallas where he played a poor 1st half, and followed it up with a 2nd half that didn't allow him to do anything because the game got out of hand, and his two big plays were plays made by Lewis and Edelman.

If you guys all want to have a re-watch party so you can show me where it was that Tom Brady should have graded out better in that game ... then ... by all means.

 

[Shemp]

Just watched the weather report for Saturday. Upper 30s with mixed precip maybe changing to all snow before the game is over. Normally I pray for that kind of weather in Foxboro, but with KC's ground game does this work to their advantage?

 

[Hootie2485]

Just watched the weather report for Saturday. Upper 30s with mixed precip maybe changing to all snow before the game is over. Normally I pray for that kind of weather in Foxboro, but with KC's ground game does this work to their advantage?

Nah. Tom Brady is great in snow, too ... and it probably ends up hindering KC's pass rush. I'd prefer it to be a nice, clear, fair weather game, honestly! I sat through a terrible snow game in KC against Indy a few years back and they smoked us, and Alex Smith was putrid.

 

[TommyD420]

Just watched the weather report for Saturday. Upper 30s with mixed precip maybe changing to all snow before the game is over. Normally I pray for that kind of weather in Foxboro, but with KC's ground game does this work to their advantage?

Snow always favors the offense.

The wind is a bit disconcerting, but considering neither QB is going to be throwing more the 5 yards anyway, I don't think it will matter much.

 

[Giant Octopodes]

Charlie Batch's game was not the best QBR game of all-time ... I'm not sure where they even got that.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/0/type/alltime-game

and all-time best seasons:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/0/type/alltime-season

The fact of the matter is, a few media types came out with some articles that made it seem like QBR was picking on Brady and referenced the Dallas game because they did exactly what QBR set out to fix ...

QBR or no QBR ... are you telling me Tom Brady played the game his stat line would suggest that Dallas game?

I mean, seriously ... you'd have to be a real homer to suggest he didn't struggle (as well as the entire offense) the entire first half of that Dallas game.

I remember, I had hundreds riding on Brady on FanDuel that week ... and every week for about the first 1/2 of the season. I was a Brady fantasy fan boy all year long.

---------- Post added at 04:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:43 PM ----------

and by no means do I think QBR is perfect ... I think it totally undervalues short passing QB's (like Tom Brady).

Of course, if you call Tom Brady a "short passing QB" some people take that as an insult. I have no idea why.

I think Tom Brady is a top 3 QB of all-time ... maybe even the best. I don't even understand why people think I'm bashing him. But people are up in arms about the way he was graded in a game against Dallas where he played a poor 1st half, and followed it up with a 2nd half that didn't allow him to do anything because the game got out of hand, and his two big plays were plays made by Lewis and Edelman.

If you guys all want to have a re-watch party so you can show me where it was that Tom Brady should have graded out better in that game ... then ... by all means.

It is hidden now, to see the game you have to choose "unqualified" instead of "qualified", which first requires choosing "best games" instead of "all time best games", and then you have to sort to 2010 because several QBs have 100s in the "unqualified" listing. Why exactly he's "unqualified" now when Roethlisberger didn't throw a single pass in the game is much like the rest of QBR- bereft of explanation. The fact they've tried to hide that specific game away (following the article, most likely) does not change the fact that Charlie Batch did indeed get a 99.9 QBR on his 186 yard, 2 pick game.

But ultimately, ignoring the subjective nature of QBR, the fact that it grossly overvalues run yards and TDs (evident in just looking at the correlation of stat lines and QBRs), and going to the heart of the problem, QBR is a meaningless stat. I say that because, unlike passer rating, it does not have a strong correlation with success or victory. It is not predictive of anything. It basically boils down to some jackoff saying "I feel like the QB contributed strongly to this win" or "I feel like the team carried this QB". You keep saying how Tom Brady earned his low score that game, defending it on the basis of what much of QBR seems to be derived from- cumulative change in expected win probability on a play by play basis. However, change in expected win probability, in addition to not being predictive or useful for any analysis at all, of any kind, is also not representative of the quality of QB play.

The fact that someone changed win probability more with 12 completed passes in a row at the beginning of the game vs later in the game does not make those passes better, nor does it make the play of the QB superior. It's not just that QBR penalizes short passers or anything like that, it's that it's just not *useful*. It's not about "Tom Brady got jobbed" in QBR, it's that if Charlie Batch getting 186 yards and 2 Ints is perfect, what exactly are we supposed to be using QBR for at all? In what situation is it a useful tool for evaluating current QB performance, comparing QBs against each other, evaluating the odds of future success, or anything else?