Drew Brees and the Cliff

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Giant Octopodes

Giant Octopodes

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Over 3 years ago now, Max Kellerman predicted Brady would fall off a cliff. He's a clickbait scammer playing the part of a moron and is most infamous for being dead wrong, which is exactly what he wants and hopes for.

Yet ironically, his initial argument was not totally off base. Look at the charts, when people fall off in the NFL they fall off fast. Brady did not, because he has a unique passion for the preparation and training part of the game. He has done more than any QB in history to preserve his level of performance and keep to a certain standard of performance.

So he has a good chance, but not a guarantee, to still be productive at 42, 43, etc. We all know, I think, that any given game could be his last good one. Nothing's guaranteed at this point and anything we get is a bonus gift. But regardless, many have looked at what Brady has done, and in their haste to denigrate Brady as nothing special have naturally assumed this is the new normal which QBs will do. I am under no such illusion.

Eli Manning is a bum. He fell off early at 36. Most fall off around 37-39. Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, there is no guarantee any of them puts forth an elite season again. Drew Brees in particular is going into his age 40 season. Historically, and statistically, by all that drove Kellerman's prediction, he should fall off by the middle of this season at the latest.

Yet no one is predicting that. Everyone is talking about how he's going to have a career year. Out of his last 5 games last year, 3 were pretty mediocre. This could be seen as the same kind of warning sign you normally see. Yet not a single person seems to be worried about it.

I'll be that guy. I have nothing against Brees, I like him as a football player and what he puts forth publically seems like a decent guy. Nonetheless, I think Brees will finish the year as a league average QB at best, and will be sub league average his final 6 games of the regular season. Obviously time will tell, but what do you think?

Will Brees continue to be great? Is playing into your 40s the new normal? Of those 4, how many will still be great, or will still be playing, at 42?
 
Brady's will to win, Gisele, Alex, pliability, diet/nutrition. Brady's done well for certain.

As for Brees and the Saints those last few games?
-Home vs away - NO historically plays poorly away. Dallas & TB are prime examples. I almost never bet on NO to win an away game.
-Poor OL play - NO's OL could do nothing against Dallas, TB or Pitt. Brees was sacked 7 times and had 4 ints his last 4 games while running for his life.

However, just 2 weeks earlier, Brees had his best game of the year and NO beat the Eagles by 41 points in NO.

I'm not ready to pack Brees' bags yet.
 
chevss454 said:
Brady's will to win, Gisele, Alex, pliability, diet/nutrition. Brady's done well for certain.

As for Brees and the Saints those last few games?
-Home vs away - NO historically plays poorly away. Dallas & TB are prime examples. I almost never bet on NO to win an away game.
-Poor OL play - NO's OL could do nothing against Dallas, TB or Pitt. Brees was sacked 7 times and had 4 ints his last 4 games while running for his life.

However, just 2 weeks earlier, Brees had his best game of the year and NO beat the Eagles by 41 points in NO.

I'm not ready to pack Brees' bags yet.
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I am. The last month of the season and the playoffs was a dramatic difference from the MVP level he played at most of the year.

If there was an injury we all weren't aware of, that would change my mind, but there were no severe injuries on that offense, nothing that should have changed Brees' production.

He looked done. Like Manning's last year, done.
 
I was looking the other day and if my memory is correct Brady should pass the giant forehead guy this year in career TD's.

I think Brady is at 520 and PM is at 539

Brees is at 517
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Mahomes at 50
 
Hogfarmer said:
I was looking the other day and if my memory is correct Brady should pass the giant forehead guy this year in career TD's.

I think Brady is at 520 and PM is at 539

Brees is at 517
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Mahomes at 50
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You have Brees and Brady switched in terms of regular season TDs, regardless yeah he should pass Manning this year.

Though total career TDs including postseason it's Brady 590, Manning 579, Brees 553, Mahomes 53.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
You have Brees and Brady switched in terms of regular season TDs, regardless yeah he should pass Manning this year.

Though total career TDs including postseason it's Brady 590, Manning 579, Brees 553, Mahomes 53.
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Ah, I wonder how many TD's Manning would have if he had been aligned with BB and Brady would have been aligned with whoever the hell Mannings coach was.
 
The Kellerman "Cliff" statement ... the guy has gotten more mileage out of that than any other stupid thing a talking head has said...


The cliff keeps moving back, and it will continue to do so... yes eventually everyone retires, but we are seeing players play longer and longer... there are a lot of veterans in their thirties who can still compete... only problem for them is that they usually aren't cheap, like the younger players... so they get cut... not because they can't play, but they are replaced by younger, and more importantly, cheaper


but that said, we are now seeing the benefits/effects of modern sports training, nutrition, the rule changes protecting players from themselves and the overall improvement of modern medicine...



anyone remember when tommy john surgery was revolutionary? when a torn acl doomed a career? god bless modern medicine
 
Hogfarmer said:
Ah, I wonder how many TD's Manning would have if he had been aligned with BB and Brady would have been aligned with whoever the hell Mannings coach was.
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Not sure how many TDs Manning would have had in his career had things been different, but the answer to how many he would have had under Belichick is 'not many'. Ty Law was cut despite being a hall of fame caliber player because his cap hit was too high. Jamie Collins was cut despite being the best player on the defense because he freelanced too much.

Put that together and it doesn't look good for the guy who likes to run the offense his way with total control, who demanded routinely to be paid top dollar.

As to Brady, well, Manning got to play over 100 games under a dome in Indy, and would've been under an offensive minded coach instead of a defensive minded one. I don't think he would've won as many games, but as far as the number of touchdowns, arguably he would've had more.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
Not sure how many TDs Manning would have had in his career had things been different, but the answer to how many he would have had under Belichick is 'not many'. Ty Law was cut despite being a hall of fame caliber player because his cap hit was too high. Jamie Collins was cut despite being the best player on the defense because he freelanced too much.

Put that together and it doesn't look good for the guy who likes to run the offense his way with total control, who demanded routinely to be paid top dollar.

As to Brady, well, Manning got to play over 100 games under a dome in Indy, and would've been under an offensive minded coach instead of a defensive minded one. I don't think he would've won as many games, but as far as the number of touchdowns, arguably he would've had more.
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Yeah but Manning played so good in wind and cold.....
 
Patriots71 said:
Yeah but Manning played so good in wind and cold.....
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That's a great point. In games at 30 or under Manning averaged the same number of TDs as Ints, completed 61% of his passes, had a passer rating of 76, and won only 25% of his games.

That's the conditions the Patriots play under somewhere between a quarter and half their games each year. Forget being cut because his style doesn't mesh with Belichick's coaching, though it doesn't, I'm not sure he wouldn't have been cut based on performance alone had he been up there his whole career.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
That's a great point. In games at 30 or under Manning averaged the same number of TDs as Ints, completed 61% of his passes, had a passer rating of 76, and won only 25% of his games.

That's the conditions the Patriots play under somewhere between a quarter and half their games each year. Forget being cut because his style doesn't mesh with Belichick's coaching, though it doesn't, I'm not sure he wouldn't have been cut based on performance alone had he been up there his whole career.
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And IIRC didn't Tom have a better Dome career than the 5head?
 
BostonTim said:
And IIRC didn't Tom have a better Dome career than the 5head?
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Yes his dome stats are better than Manning's dome stats (Passer Rating 109 vs 99) and his outdoors stats are better than Manning's outdoors stats (Passer Rating 97 vs 94) but that's hardly surprising because his career stats are better despite playing virtually all his games outdoors instead of half of them. The difference in outdoors stats is actually understated because they were in a division with the Texans and Jags, neither of whom is exactly a cold weather team despite theoretically being "outdoors".

I mean there's really no way to spin Manning to make him seem like a better QB than Brady. All his splits, his overall stats, his results, they're all worse, across the board. But yes, weather in particular is something Manning benefited from to prop up his stats pretty heavily, same with Brees in his dome (104 in a dome, 91 outdoors for his passer ratings).
 
Hogfarmer said:
Ah, I wonder how many TD's Manning would have if he had been aligned with BB and Brady would have been aligned with whoever the hell Mannings coach was.
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If Peyton had been aligned with BB when he was drafted, he'd have been a Jet.

Wait. Are you asking if Brady would have made the playoffs with Jim Mora of the Colts? Playoffs? Don't talk about—playoffs?! You kidding me? Playoffs?

Playoffs!
 
How many TDs would Mahomes have had if he played last season with the Raiders or Jets or whatever?

Ifs and buts and all that jazz.
 
I know this. If Manning had to play outside, especially in a place like New England, his numbers wouldn’t be close to that. Same for brees.
 
rivshark86 said:
I know this. If Manning had to play outside, especially in a place like New England, his numbers wouldn’t be close to that. Same for brees.
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He had a few really good years in Denver. In fact I believe his best year was there but he had that defense that was elite helping him get the back back.
 
Hogfarmer said:
Ah, I wonder how many TD's Manning would have if he had been aligned with BB and Brady would have been aligned with whoever the hell Mannings coach was.
Click to expand...



Fewer. Peyton sucked at handling pressure situations. Carried by his defense twice to SB victories. Great regular season QB only.


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