It's Cam!

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Hawg73
chevss454 said:
I knew I'd get kickback from that and that's fine. I guess it's the way I'm built but this doesn't bother me at all because I expected Cam to be back. I've also reconciled that if he had a proper off season with training camps, etc., not gotten COVID, and had some legit weapons last year that he'd have performed better. As it was, and I've posted many articles about this, he guided the O to a better EPA per drive than TB12 did in 2019. That's not to say he's better than TB12, instead it says TB12 didn't do any better with those weapons. For me, the lack of weapons and the poor defense led to our poor record more than Cam's poor play did.

So for me, someone who is always looking forward, it's time to get some weapons before crucifying this move by BB. A WR1 and a veteran TE would be a good start. And it's time to make sure the front 7 is up to par. I'm good with that but at the same time I realize others may not be. That's your prerogative.
Click to expand...

A wonderfully stated defense of your views and I certainly hope that you are correct and I am dead wrong about Cam, because it's about the Pats getting better and nothing else really matters.

I'm not really trying to crucify BB and I was half-expecting this to happen. I hope I made clear that I realize last year was far from ideal for Newton and the way he handled himself off the field was admirable and contained zero excuses. His broad shoulders took a lot of weight and he handled whatever inner turmoil was eating him (I thought that was evident) with great grace.

My primary reason for wanting us to go in a different direction was I thought there there were too many examples of him having time and open targets where I felt that he just couldn't resolve
the puzzle in front of him at a high enough level or couldn't pull the trigger. Yes, we could've helped him with better talent, but there were plays that we needed at critical junctures where Cam didn't/couldn't find a way to get it done or threw a duck when we needed a dime. At times, Newton was simply awful and it was embarrassing to watch him look so bad. I know he's a fine man, but I'm not sure if he's a fine QB and I want to feel sure about our QB1 and I can't do that.

In any case, we're getting a sequel to a disappointing film and the supporting cast, at least, figures to be substantially better so maybe the headliner will be as well.
 
chevss454

You're entitled to your opinion.

Brady did better? Brady was the recipient of the benefits of a great defense in 2019. He had far better field position and the D provided him with 21 turnovers in 2019 (Cam was given 3) and many more possessions coming from stops.
Here's an article with proof of that if you choose to read it. I posted it in January.


From the Athletic
Even though many want to blame Cam and the offense for our bad season, it was the defense that caused us to have a 7-9 season.

A predictable narrative took hold as the defeats piled up for the 7-9 New England Patriots this season: The team simply wasn’t the same without quarterback Tom Brady. How could it be? The narrative was undeniably true in important ways. Passing frequency plummeted without Brady. Quarterback runs proliferated with Cam Newton in his place. An offense that already wasn’t pretty by New England standards in Brady’s final season with the team became downright ugly with almost zero panache in the passing game.

But in assessing raw output without regard for playing style, the Patriots got about as much production from their 2020 offense as they got from the 2019 version. While conventional stats can capture this decently — both offenses averaged about 1.9 points per drive, for example — the expected points added (EPA) metric is especially well suited for measuring total output regardless of form. By that measure, New England’s offense was among the five stablest offensive or defensive units in the league, year over year. The Patriots’ defense was actually the NFL unit whose production changed the most from 2019. No other offensive or defensive unit came close to changing as much. This aspect of New England’s decline from 12-4 to 7-9 was easy to overlook with so much focus naturally on Brady’s absence.

Below we run through the offensive and defensive units that experienced the largest EPA changes year over year. First, a big congratulations to the Washington Football Team, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants and New Orleans Saints. These were the only teams whose defenses experienced EPA improvements from 2019 as crowd noise became a non-factor for road offenses. The offensive scoring gap that had always separated home teams from road teams disappeared in 2020 as stadiums fell silent. That is why you’ll see defensive teams dominate the “largest declines” category, with offenses dominating the “largest gains” section.

Five Largest EPA Declines, 2019 to 2020


1Patriots Defense+220.6-73.0-293.6
2Vikings Defense+51.7-114.8-166.5
3Titans Defense+32.7-130.8-163.5
4Jets Defense+57.4-90.7-148.1
5Bills Defense+98.3-41.1-139.4


1. New England Patriots defense​

The Patriots’ 2019 defense ranks No. 1 in EPA out of 670 defenses since 2000, ahead of the 2000 and 2003 Baltimore Ravens. There was nowhere to go but down from such heights, and that is exactly where New England headed defensively, helped along by multiple factors.

The 2019 Patriots faced the NFL’s easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks. Their schedule appeared tougher heading into 2020 with games against Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. Derek Carr was playing well when the Patriots faced him. Josh Allen’s emergence as a high-producing quarterback within the AFC East contributed. Losing linebacker Dont’a Hightower and safety Patrick Chung to COVID-19 opt-outs hurt. New England allowed 22 touchdown passes this season after allowing only 13 the year before. The Patriots collected seven fewer interceptions and allowed an additional 1.5 yards per pass attempt.

The Patriots actually improved in offensive EPA from last season while their scoring average plummeted from 23.1 offensive points per game to 18.6. That would seem to be impossible on the surface, but the team’s unusually dominant defensive performance last season set up the offense in easier scoring situations. EPA measures production in relation to expectation. Teams taking over possession with shorter fields should score more. The 2019 Patriots did just that. The 2020 team collected 14 fewer turnovers than the 2019 version. Its average starting field position was worse by 4.2 yards per drive. The 2020 team’s average drives were longer by about one-half play and by 17 seconds on average. New England had 157 offensive possessions, down from 190 last season.

While the Patriots were unrivaled in the size of their defensive regression, defense took a huge hit in the NFL overall, partly because road teams did not have to contend with noisy stadiums. Teams over the previous five years (2015-2019) averaged two fewer offensive points per game on the road. That disadvantage disappeared in 2020 as home and road teams both averaged 23.76 offensive points per game. While the Patriots’ offensive production did not crater, New England still lost ground as offensive production surged overall. Throw in the NFL’s largest decline on defense and it’s easy to see how 12-4 one year became 7-9 in the next.

The Patriots missed Tom Brady, but their biggest decline was on defense ​


The Patriots' defense, the Titans' defense and the Bills' offense are among the units with the biggest year over year changes in 2020.

theathletic.com
theathletic.com
 
Mazz22
Roberto71 said:
Speaking of QBs. Tom has signed a very team-friendly extension.

Saves the Buccs $19 million against the cap this year. The additional voidable years are there to defray the cost. Tom is great like that, does it to keep as much of the team together as possible.
Click to expand...
The juxtaposition is surreal - Brady getting the extension and Licht doing everything in his power to keep the players that won the chip together so they can make a run at another one and we sign Cam. All on the same day. Good heavens.
 
chevss454

What would your expectations be if the Pats signed Minshew or Winston or JimmyG or any other QB you would have preferred?
 
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