mayoclinic
Sith Apprentice
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2010
- Messages
- 9,075
- Reaction score
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- Points
- 83
I. Overview
The Pats rebuilt their offense during 2010, changing from a spread dominated vertical scheme to a ball control offense structured around the TEs. The WR position was drastically changed by the Randy Moss and Deion Branch trades. The RB position was also overhauled. The result was spectacular: the second 500 point season in the past 4 years and one of the most efficient and effective offenses in history. The offense showed considerably less predictability than the 2009 version, and Bill O'Brien showed maturity and development in the de facto OC role. Nevertheless, the offense once again struggled in the playoffs with familiar problems: predictability, lack of an effective running game when the opposing defense focused on shutting down the pass, and poor pass protection.
Going into 2011 the major issues appeared to be age at the OL and RB units, and the need for a vertical threat WR to stretch the field and open up the short and intermediate passing game. Most people viewed the offense as the strength of the team, and the general consensus seemed to be that a few minor tweaks combined with some improvements on defense should help the Pats get over the top as a contender. But there is increasing evidence that the FO and coaching staff does not share that assessment, and is looking at major changes to the offense for 2011.
II. Positional Breakdown
QB
It still starts and ends with Tom Brady, who had one of his best seasons in 2010, setting a record for consecutive passes without an interception and racking up his second MVP award. TB seemed to reach a new level after the Randy Moss trade and thrive on a ball control short-intermediate passing game, allowing him to find the open receiver. His accuracy, red zone execution and decision making were considerably improved from 2009, and the offense performed on a historic level during the second half of the season. Nevertheless, the Jets were able to stack the field with DBs and dare the Pats to run the ball, underscoring the limitations of an offense completely oriented around a short-intermediate passing game.
Brian Hoyer looked solid as a backup last year, and performed well in limited action. Nevertheless, the Pats pulled a shocker by drafting Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft. Mallett, considered a possible top 10 talent and the consensus best pro QB prospect in the draft, fell because of non-specific "character" concerns. It is unclear how long he will take to develop, and whether the Pats see him as a true alternative or possibie successor to Brady or just as a valuable developmental asset. But for the first time in a decade the possibility of a Pats team with a franchise QB other than Tom Brady is at least remotely conceivable.
Overall prognosis: As good as its ever been. Brady was in MVP form in 2011, and the presence of a young turk in town should only stir his competitive juices and spur him on to greater heights. Mallett and Hoyer are also the most solid backup option the Pats have had since Brady and Bledsoe were both on the team. Add in some new weapons and improved protection up front, and the outlook should be extremely favorable.
RB
The Pats went into 2010 with Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and three 33+ year old veterans: Kevin Faulk, Sammie Morris, and the oft-injured Fred Taylor. It wasn't a particularly strong unit. Within the first few weeks of the season Taylor was injured again, Maroney was shipped off to Denver, Faulk sustained a season-ending injury, and the Pats had picked up a pint sized back from a Division II school who had been cut by the Jets. The results surpassed anyone's expectations as "Law Firm" ran over over 1000 yards and Danny Woodhead became a fan favorite and tremendous all-purpose offensive weapon.
With Faulk, Morris and Taylor all FAs and their return questionable, and BJGE a RFA, the long term situation at RB was somewhat up in the air. The Pats attacked the position aggressively in the 2011 draft, spending a 2nd round pick on Cal all-purpose slasher Shane Vereeen and a 3rd on LSU bruiser Stevan Ridley. Both were considered reaches by some, but the Pats seem quite high on both prospects. Ridley gives the Pats a clock-killing pounder who they have not had since Corey Dillon. Vereeen could develop into a 3-down back in time, though he will probably be used in a Kevin Faulk kind of role initially.
Overall prognosis: Optimistic. The Pats now have 4 talented young backs to implement their RBBC committee approach. BJGE and Danny Woodhead have a full season under their belt and a solid understanding of the offense. Vereen and Ridley should complement them well, provide fresh legs, integrate well into the passing attack, and provide depth in case of injury. While the labor situation may limit the ability of rookies to learn the playbook, RB is generally one of the easier positions for rookies to make an impact, and I'm sure the Pats will find a way to work the rookies into the rotation.
WR
The Pats unexpectedly overhauled the WR position during 2010, trading Randy Moss after game 4 and acquiring Deion Branch from Seattle. Many people felt that the lack of a vertical receiving threat would cripple the offense, but it thrived on a ball-control short-intermediate system in which Brady focused on finding the open man. Deion Branch was reinvigorated and had his best season since 2005. Wes Welker made a miraculous recovery from his late 2009 ACL injury; he should be 100% recovered for 2011, and is in a contract year. Brandon Tate showed flashes, though he did not make quite as much progress as many hoped. Julian Edelman shined in the preseason but played a much more limited role than expected. And rookie Taylor Price had mostly a red shirt year to learn the offense. The TEs largely filled the void. Unfortunately, the playoff game against the Jets raised all of the original concerns after the Moss trade about the limitations of an offense without a vertical passing attack. A stretch the field WR was considered a prime need by many, but was ignored by the team in the 2011 draft.
Overall prognosis: Fairly solid. Welker, Branch, Tate and Price give the Pats 4 talented players at the position. The fact that BB passed on a WR in the draft suggests that he has confidence in Tate's and Price's progress, or that he sees the need being addressed in other ways. A veteran FA signing is a possibility. Mike Sims-Walker and Brad Smith may be available; a big name like Sidney Rice seems like a long shot. It's even remotely possible that Randy Moss could be brought back. The other option is that Aaron Hernandez will be used more as a flanker to stretch the field.
TE
This position has been completely rebuilt. The Pats ended 2009 with Ben Watson and Chris Baker. They signed veteran Alge Crumpler, who became a team captain and provided both leadership and tremendous physicality and blocking. And they surprisingly turned the offense over to rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who became unique weapons. Gronk added a physical presence and unstoppable red zone threat who produced 42 receptions for 546 yards and 10 TDs. Hernandez created mismatches all over the field and produced 45 receptions for 563 yards and 6 TDs, though his effectiveness in the second half of the season was limited by a hip injury. The Pats used multiple TE sets considerably more than any other team in the NFL. The addition of 5th round pick Lee Smith from Marshall in the 2011 draft suggests that they plan to rely even more on the TE position, and perhaps use Hernandez more as a vertical threat and H-back than an in-line TE.
Overall prognosis: Sky high. Probably the best unit in the NFL, which should only get better with the addition of another bruising blocker in Lee Smith. The Pats will use the TEs as the "queen on the chessboard" as characterized by Mike Smith, and will run the offense through the position.
OT
The OL performed admirably again in 2010, ranking among the top units in the NFL. Matt Light anchored the LT position and Sebastian Vollmer stayed at RT, where he is arguably the best in the NFL. Nick Kaczur was lost to IR for the season, but the addition of Quin Ojinnaka from Atlanta combined with veteran Mark LeVoir provided adequate backup. In an intriguing move, the team signed converted TE Steve Maneri to the practice squad. Maneri, a 6'7" 270# mauler, offers considerable upside at tackle and could be a real contributor in 2011 or 2012.
The long term outlook entering 2011 was somewhat murky. Matt Light is a FA, and will turn 34; he has professed a desire to return if the terms are right. Nick Kaczur is coming off IR; there are rumors the team wants him to take a major salary reduction, and that he will refuse to do so. Finding a long term successor to one of the tackle positions was clearly a major priority. The ability of Sebastian Vollmer to play either tackle position meant that the Pats could find either an LT or RT. They managed to find both in the 2011 draft, selecting Colorado LT Nate Solder with the #17 selection and snatching up TCU mammoth Marcus Cannon in the 5th round after he fell due to lymphoma issues. Cannon offers flexibility at guard as well as tackle, and was considered a 1st/2nd round talent by most.
Overall prognosis: Terrific for the long term. Still not 100% settled for 2011. Nate Solder has almost unlimited potential at LT, and could end up being a Joe Thomas/Ryan Clady kind of talent to pair with Sebastian Vollmer. The fact that BB and Dante Scarnecchia were so high on Solder speaks volumes. He appears to have some work to do before being NFL-ready, but Scar worked wonders with Vollmer in 2009. It is likely that Solder won't start the 2011 season, and it's still quite possible that Matt Light could be brought back, or that Nick Kaczur could play RT while Vollmer mans LT under Solder is ready. Quin Ojinnaka is also a FA, but could be brought back at reasonable cost. If Steve Maneri develops, the Pats could have an amazing rotation of Solder-Vollmer as starting OTs and LeVoir-Maneri as backups.
OG/C
The interior OL position for 2010 was thrust into turmoil by the contract situation with Logan Mankins, which exploded when Mankins refused to sign his RFA tender and blasted the organization. That prompted a move to OG for Nick Kaczur, who then had back surgery and ended up on IR. Dan Connolly performed admirably in Mankins' absence at LG for 8 games, but Mankins' return week 9 clearly gave the offense a tremendous boost. Connolly then performed admirably again at RG when Stephen Neal got injured. Dan Koppen struggled somewhat at center and appears to be on the downside of his career. Quin Ojinnaka provided some decent depth, and youngsters Rich Ohrnberger and Ryan Wendell got some playing time and showed some promise.
The situation entering 2011 was quite up in the air. Stephen Neal retired. Logan Mankins received a franchise tender, but his FA status is up in the air with the current labor situation. Nick Kaczur is coming off of IR, and may also be a contract casualty. Quin Ojinnaka is a FA and can't be re-signed until the labor situation is resolved. That left Dan Koppen and Dan Connolly (both in a contract year) and youngsters Ohrnberger and Wendell at the position. The selection of TCU OL Marcus Cannon in the 2011 draft provides a major boost here. Cannon will likely be moved to RG. He is undergoing chemotherapy for Non-Hodgkins' lymphoma but should be finished in time for training camp. He could be put on PUP or IR for 2011, but is likely to emerge as the long term successor to Stephen Neal at RG by 2012.
Overall prognosis: The most uncertain position on offense. Too many question marks - Logan Mankins' contract status, Nick Kaczur's recovery and contract status, Marcus Cannon's lymphoma recovery, Quin Ojinnaka's contract status, and the development of Wendell and Ohrnberger. Scar always seems to work miracles, but for 2011 this may be the Achilles' heel of the offense.
III. Prognosis
From a personnel perspective, the overall prognosis on offense is very good for 2011 and beyond. BB seems to be attempting to address aging veteran issues before they reach critical status, as opposed to what happened with the defense a few years ago. The TE and RB position have been completely turned over. The OT situation is largely set, and should be solid for 2011 if Matt Light is re-signed. The QB position has better depth than ever. There is a strong nucleus at WR, with at most one major addition to be made to fill out the position for the long term. The interior OL is really the only area of the team which is a major question mark going into 2011, and for the future.
From a coaching perspective, Bill O'Brien showed considerable maturity and development in his second year, and should have more confidence as the official OC. I think that we will see him start to really put his stamp on the offense.
From a schematic perspective, it appears that the coaching staff is again looking at making significant changes for 2011, building on what was started in 2010. All signs suggest that these changes will involve bolstering the running game and becoming more physical and smashmouth. The 2011 draft certainly supports this theory. I'm guessing that the 2011 offense will be more balanced and less predictable than any since 2008, or even 2004. Ultimately, better balance and better predictability should help the Pats when the going gets tough. Mike Mayock recently summarized these changes:
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...id/4695829/after-draft-patriots-can-pound-it
I'm pretty excited.
The Pats rebuilt their offense during 2010, changing from a spread dominated vertical scheme to a ball control offense structured around the TEs. The WR position was drastically changed by the Randy Moss and Deion Branch trades. The RB position was also overhauled. The result was spectacular: the second 500 point season in the past 4 years and one of the most efficient and effective offenses in history. The offense showed considerably less predictability than the 2009 version, and Bill O'Brien showed maturity and development in the de facto OC role. Nevertheless, the offense once again struggled in the playoffs with familiar problems: predictability, lack of an effective running game when the opposing defense focused on shutting down the pass, and poor pass protection.
Going into 2011 the major issues appeared to be age at the OL and RB units, and the need for a vertical threat WR to stretch the field and open up the short and intermediate passing game. Most people viewed the offense as the strength of the team, and the general consensus seemed to be that a few minor tweaks combined with some improvements on defense should help the Pats get over the top as a contender. But there is increasing evidence that the FO and coaching staff does not share that assessment, and is looking at major changes to the offense for 2011.
II. Positional Breakdown
QB
It still starts and ends with Tom Brady, who had one of his best seasons in 2010, setting a record for consecutive passes without an interception and racking up his second MVP award. TB seemed to reach a new level after the Randy Moss trade and thrive on a ball control short-intermediate passing game, allowing him to find the open receiver. His accuracy, red zone execution and decision making were considerably improved from 2009, and the offense performed on a historic level during the second half of the season. Nevertheless, the Jets were able to stack the field with DBs and dare the Pats to run the ball, underscoring the limitations of an offense completely oriented around a short-intermediate passing game.
Brian Hoyer looked solid as a backup last year, and performed well in limited action. Nevertheless, the Pats pulled a shocker by drafting Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft. Mallett, considered a possible top 10 talent and the consensus best pro QB prospect in the draft, fell because of non-specific "character" concerns. It is unclear how long he will take to develop, and whether the Pats see him as a true alternative or possibie successor to Brady or just as a valuable developmental asset. But for the first time in a decade the possibility of a Pats team with a franchise QB other than Tom Brady is at least remotely conceivable.
Overall prognosis: As good as its ever been. Brady was in MVP form in 2011, and the presence of a young turk in town should only stir his competitive juices and spur him on to greater heights. Mallett and Hoyer are also the most solid backup option the Pats have had since Brady and Bledsoe were both on the team. Add in some new weapons and improved protection up front, and the outlook should be extremely favorable.
RB
The Pats went into 2010 with Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and three 33+ year old veterans: Kevin Faulk, Sammie Morris, and the oft-injured Fred Taylor. It wasn't a particularly strong unit. Within the first few weeks of the season Taylor was injured again, Maroney was shipped off to Denver, Faulk sustained a season-ending injury, and the Pats had picked up a pint sized back from a Division II school who had been cut by the Jets. The results surpassed anyone's expectations as "Law Firm" ran over over 1000 yards and Danny Woodhead became a fan favorite and tremendous all-purpose offensive weapon.
With Faulk, Morris and Taylor all FAs and their return questionable, and BJGE a RFA, the long term situation at RB was somewhat up in the air. The Pats attacked the position aggressively in the 2011 draft, spending a 2nd round pick on Cal all-purpose slasher Shane Vereeen and a 3rd on LSU bruiser Stevan Ridley. Both were considered reaches by some, but the Pats seem quite high on both prospects. Ridley gives the Pats a clock-killing pounder who they have not had since Corey Dillon. Vereeen could develop into a 3-down back in time, though he will probably be used in a Kevin Faulk kind of role initially.
Overall prognosis: Optimistic. The Pats now have 4 talented young backs to implement their RBBC committee approach. BJGE and Danny Woodhead have a full season under their belt and a solid understanding of the offense. Vereen and Ridley should complement them well, provide fresh legs, integrate well into the passing attack, and provide depth in case of injury. While the labor situation may limit the ability of rookies to learn the playbook, RB is generally one of the easier positions for rookies to make an impact, and I'm sure the Pats will find a way to work the rookies into the rotation.
WR
The Pats unexpectedly overhauled the WR position during 2010, trading Randy Moss after game 4 and acquiring Deion Branch from Seattle. Many people felt that the lack of a vertical receiving threat would cripple the offense, but it thrived on a ball-control short-intermediate system in which Brady focused on finding the open man. Deion Branch was reinvigorated and had his best season since 2005. Wes Welker made a miraculous recovery from his late 2009 ACL injury; he should be 100% recovered for 2011, and is in a contract year. Brandon Tate showed flashes, though he did not make quite as much progress as many hoped. Julian Edelman shined in the preseason but played a much more limited role than expected. And rookie Taylor Price had mostly a red shirt year to learn the offense. The TEs largely filled the void. Unfortunately, the playoff game against the Jets raised all of the original concerns after the Moss trade about the limitations of an offense without a vertical passing attack. A stretch the field WR was considered a prime need by many, but was ignored by the team in the 2011 draft.
Overall prognosis: Fairly solid. Welker, Branch, Tate and Price give the Pats 4 talented players at the position. The fact that BB passed on a WR in the draft suggests that he has confidence in Tate's and Price's progress, or that he sees the need being addressed in other ways. A veteran FA signing is a possibility. Mike Sims-Walker and Brad Smith may be available; a big name like Sidney Rice seems like a long shot. It's even remotely possible that Randy Moss could be brought back. The other option is that Aaron Hernandez will be used more as a flanker to stretch the field.
TE
This position has been completely rebuilt. The Pats ended 2009 with Ben Watson and Chris Baker. They signed veteran Alge Crumpler, who became a team captain and provided both leadership and tremendous physicality and blocking. And they surprisingly turned the offense over to rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who became unique weapons. Gronk added a physical presence and unstoppable red zone threat who produced 42 receptions for 546 yards and 10 TDs. Hernandez created mismatches all over the field and produced 45 receptions for 563 yards and 6 TDs, though his effectiveness in the second half of the season was limited by a hip injury. The Pats used multiple TE sets considerably more than any other team in the NFL. The addition of 5th round pick Lee Smith from Marshall in the 2011 draft suggests that they plan to rely even more on the TE position, and perhaps use Hernandez more as a vertical threat and H-back than an in-line TE.
Overall prognosis: Sky high. Probably the best unit in the NFL, which should only get better with the addition of another bruising blocker in Lee Smith. The Pats will use the TEs as the "queen on the chessboard" as characterized by Mike Smith, and will run the offense through the position.
OT
The OL performed admirably again in 2010, ranking among the top units in the NFL. Matt Light anchored the LT position and Sebastian Vollmer stayed at RT, where he is arguably the best in the NFL. Nick Kaczur was lost to IR for the season, but the addition of Quin Ojinnaka from Atlanta combined with veteran Mark LeVoir provided adequate backup. In an intriguing move, the team signed converted TE Steve Maneri to the practice squad. Maneri, a 6'7" 270# mauler, offers considerable upside at tackle and could be a real contributor in 2011 or 2012.
The long term outlook entering 2011 was somewhat murky. Matt Light is a FA, and will turn 34; he has professed a desire to return if the terms are right. Nick Kaczur is coming off IR; there are rumors the team wants him to take a major salary reduction, and that he will refuse to do so. Finding a long term successor to one of the tackle positions was clearly a major priority. The ability of Sebastian Vollmer to play either tackle position meant that the Pats could find either an LT or RT. They managed to find both in the 2011 draft, selecting Colorado LT Nate Solder with the #17 selection and snatching up TCU mammoth Marcus Cannon in the 5th round after he fell due to lymphoma issues. Cannon offers flexibility at guard as well as tackle, and was considered a 1st/2nd round talent by most.
Overall prognosis: Terrific for the long term. Still not 100% settled for 2011. Nate Solder has almost unlimited potential at LT, and could end up being a Joe Thomas/Ryan Clady kind of talent to pair with Sebastian Vollmer. The fact that BB and Dante Scarnecchia were so high on Solder speaks volumes. He appears to have some work to do before being NFL-ready, but Scar worked wonders with Vollmer in 2009. It is likely that Solder won't start the 2011 season, and it's still quite possible that Matt Light could be brought back, or that Nick Kaczur could play RT while Vollmer mans LT under Solder is ready. Quin Ojinnaka is also a FA, but could be brought back at reasonable cost. If Steve Maneri develops, the Pats could have an amazing rotation of Solder-Vollmer as starting OTs and LeVoir-Maneri as backups.
OG/C
The interior OL position for 2010 was thrust into turmoil by the contract situation with Logan Mankins, which exploded when Mankins refused to sign his RFA tender and blasted the organization. That prompted a move to OG for Nick Kaczur, who then had back surgery and ended up on IR. Dan Connolly performed admirably in Mankins' absence at LG for 8 games, but Mankins' return week 9 clearly gave the offense a tremendous boost. Connolly then performed admirably again at RG when Stephen Neal got injured. Dan Koppen struggled somewhat at center and appears to be on the downside of his career. Quin Ojinnaka provided some decent depth, and youngsters Rich Ohrnberger and Ryan Wendell got some playing time and showed some promise.
The situation entering 2011 was quite up in the air. Stephen Neal retired. Logan Mankins received a franchise tender, but his FA status is up in the air with the current labor situation. Nick Kaczur is coming off of IR, and may also be a contract casualty. Quin Ojinnaka is a FA and can't be re-signed until the labor situation is resolved. That left Dan Koppen and Dan Connolly (both in a contract year) and youngsters Ohrnberger and Wendell at the position. The selection of TCU OL Marcus Cannon in the 2011 draft provides a major boost here. Cannon will likely be moved to RG. He is undergoing chemotherapy for Non-Hodgkins' lymphoma but should be finished in time for training camp. He could be put on PUP or IR for 2011, but is likely to emerge as the long term successor to Stephen Neal at RG by 2012.
Overall prognosis: The most uncertain position on offense. Too many question marks - Logan Mankins' contract status, Nick Kaczur's recovery and contract status, Marcus Cannon's lymphoma recovery, Quin Ojinnaka's contract status, and the development of Wendell and Ohrnberger. Scar always seems to work miracles, but for 2011 this may be the Achilles' heel of the offense.
III. Prognosis
From a personnel perspective, the overall prognosis on offense is very good for 2011 and beyond. BB seems to be attempting to address aging veteran issues before they reach critical status, as opposed to what happened with the defense a few years ago. The TE and RB position have been completely turned over. The OT situation is largely set, and should be solid for 2011 if Matt Light is re-signed. The QB position has better depth than ever. There is a strong nucleus at WR, with at most one major addition to be made to fill out the position for the long term. The interior OL is really the only area of the team which is a major question mark going into 2011, and for the future.
From a coaching perspective, Bill O'Brien showed considerable maturity and development in his second year, and should have more confidence as the official OC. I think that we will see him start to really put his stamp on the offense.
From a schematic perspective, it appears that the coaching staff is again looking at making significant changes for 2011, building on what was started in 2010. All signs suggest that these changes will involve bolstering the running game and becoming more physical and smashmouth. The 2011 draft certainly supports this theory. I'm guessing that the 2011 offense will be more balanced and less predictable than any since 2008, or even 2004. Ultimately, better balance and better predictability should help the Pats when the going gets tough. Mike Mayock recently summarized these changes:
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...id/4695829/after-draft-patriots-can-pound-it
I'm pretty excited.
