Looking at the Patriots - 2020

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chevss454 said:
JMc has come through nicely as well.
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Hooray! Glad to know Chung is healthy!

Chung and the Patriots have agreed to a two-year extension that runs through the 2023 season, sources told Field Yates of ESPN. The Oregon Ducks product will receive a reported signing bonus of $3 million as part of the pact, and can earn up to $12.8 million over the next four years.
But the short-term plan is in focus.
New England now carries the financial flexibility to get fellow safety Kyle Dugger, selected No. 37 overall in April, under contract. The first-team All-American and Cliff Harris Award winner out of Lenoir-Rhyne began the week as the last unsigned member of the Patriots’ 2020 draft class.
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Now being reported that Duggar has signed. The Pats are the 1st team to have all their draft picks under contract,
 
bideau said:
Now being reported that Duggar has signed. The Pats are the 1st team to have all their draft picks under contract,
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I like it. I'll look at it this way: Chung restructures, and will help the new guy learn the ropes.
 
Edelman is the new offensive leader for the Pats and he's leading by example. Loving this!


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chevss454 said:
JMc has come through nicely as well.
================

Hooray! Glad to know Chung is healthy!

Chung and the Patriots have agreed to a two-year extension that runs through the 2023 season, sources told Field Yates of ESPN. The Oregon Ducks product will receive a reported signing bonus of $3 million as part of the pact, and can earn up to $12.8 million over the next four years.
But the short-term plan is in focus.
New England now carries the financial flexibility to get fellow safety Kyle Dugger, selected No. 37 overall in April, under contract. The first-team All-American and Cliff Harris Award winner out of Lenoir-Rhyne began the week as the last unsigned member of the Patriots’ 2020 draft class.
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Chung is the epitome of an unsung Patriot. Guy is just steady and not flashy at all. Glad to see he's redone his deal to allow them to get Duggar signed.
 
EasyBigFella said:
Chung is the epitome of an unsung Patriot. Guy is just steady and not flashy at all. Glad to see he's redone his deal to allow them to get Duggar signed.
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He knows how to break down and wrap-up with the best of them.
 
Happy 34th Birthday to Jules, our new leader on offense.


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I'd buy me a Jules jersey, but so far all my jerseys are from former Pats players. Last one being Brady. So maybe I'll just get a JE shirt instead...
 
The top 3 logical cut prospects for cap savings?



Cap Space=$650,989@patscap·8m
Wise, Eluemunor, Burkhead

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Wise was ineffective last year - $2.33M cap savings.
Eluemunor is a deep depth piece - also a $2.33M cap savings.
Burkhead is a rotational RB that is BB's binkie - $2.9M cap savings.


Wise and Eluemunor are prime candidates to be cut.
Burkhead stays unless BB can trade him and get a prime Steven Jackson clone for similar money. (He stays)
 
chevss454 said:
The top 3 logical cut prospects for cap savings?



Cap Space=$650,989@patscap·8m
Wise, Eluemunor, Burkhead

----------------------

Wise was ineffective last year - $2.33M cap savings.
Eluemunor is a deep depth piece - also a $2.33M cap savings.
Burkhead is a rotational RB that is BB's binkie - $2.9M cap savings.


Wise and Eluemunor are prime candidates to be cut.
Burkhead stays unless BB can trade him and get a prime Steven Jackson clone for similar money. (He stays)
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I'm fine cutting both Rivers and Wise.

re: Eluemunor: Do the Pats intend on keeping Thuney or trading him? That's the key question. With Thuney we don't need Eluemunor. Without Thuney we can afford him.
 
chevss454 said:
The top 3 logical cut prospects for cap savings?



Cap Space=$650,989@patscap·8m
Wise, Eluemunor, Burkhead

----------------------

Wise was ineffective last year - $2.33M cap savings.
Eluemunor is a deep depth piece - also a $2.33M cap savings.
Burkhead is a rotational RB that is BB's binkie - $2.9M cap savings.


Wise and Eluemunor are prime candidates to be cut.
Burkhead stays unless BB can trade him and get a prime Steven Jackson clone for similar money. (He stays)
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Burkhead is the best back we have as of now disguising run or pass. Harris is an unknown. White in = pass. Michel in = run.

He’s Josh’s binkie.

With the game on the line in KC for a trip to the SB it was ALL Burkhead. What more needs to be said?
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Burkhead is the best back we have as of now disguising run or pass. Harris is an unknown. White in = pass. Michel in = run.

He’s Josh’s binkie.

With the game on the line in KC for a trip to the SB it was ALL Burkhead. What more needs to be said?
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Actually Burkhead is a binkie of BB's although Josh also likes him. As I said, he's staying unless BB can get a prime Steven Jackson type player for the same money.

Now, as for Michel, last year's ineffectiveness wasn't all on him. He faced a lot of stacked boxes so I looked it up. He finished 2nd in the league with 82 rushes against defenses with 8 or more men in the box per PFF. That's a big hill to climb especially with a beat up OL. That was with TB at QB!

Teams actually wanted Brady to throw so they took away the ground game to put more pressure on TB and the WR corps. You can bet defenses will continue to stack the box to stuff the run and dare our next QB to beat them. Michel is going to attract plenty of attention in 2020. Throwing more and actually getting completions on 1st and 2nd down would mitigate the stacked defenses. If TB couldn't do it, can Stid or Hoyer? I'm hopeful - back to "throwing to open up the ground game"?
 
chevss454 said:
Actually Burkhead is a binkie of BB's although Josh also likes him. As I said, he's staying unless BB can get a prime Steven Jackson type player for the same money.

Now, as for Michel, last year's ineffectiveness wasn't all on him. He faced a lot of stacked boxes so I looked it up. He finished 2nd in the league with 82 rushes against defenses with 8 or more men in the box per PFF. That's a big hill to climb especially with a beat up OL. That was with TB at QB!

Teams actually wanted Brady to throw so they took away the ground game to put more pressure on TB and the WR corps. You can bet defenses will continue to stack the box to stuff the run and dare our next QB to beat them. Michel is going to attract plenty of attention in 2020. Throwing more and actually getting completions on 1st and 2nd down would mitigate the stacked defenses. If TB couldn't do it, can Stid or Hoyer? I'm hopeful - back to "throwing to open up the ground game"?
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That won’t change much if he doesn’t develop as a receiving threat. With the Pats RB by committee approach when White comes in they pass, Michel they run. Nobody will respect pass when Michel is in there. By now, a 1st round pick that showed plenty of receiving potential at Georgia should be further along in his game than he is.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
That won’t change much if he doesn’t develop as a receiving threat. With the Pats RB by committee approach when White comes in they pass, Michel they run. Nobody will respect pass when Michel is in there. By now, a 1st round pick that showed plenty of receiving potential at Georgia should be further along in his game than he is.
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Also, his flashes of the clutch Gene have not gone unnoticed.

Keep him, I say. :shrug:

Cheers. :toast:
 
PFF guesses the Patriots starters. Kind of hard to imagine Phillips replaces Chung as the starter at SS, at least right away. I can see it once Phillips learns the system. Chung's new contract is guaranteed for $4.1M and his dead cap doesn't get manageable until after the 2021 season. I see value in both players being on the field in big nickel situations. Phillips can cover RBs and TEs quite well.


New England Patriots

Offense
QB: Jarrett Stidham
RB: Sony Michel
WR: Mohamed Sanu
WR: N’Keal Harry
Slot: Julian Edelman
TE: Devin Asiasi
LT: Isaiah Wynn
LG: Joe Thuney
C: David Andrews
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Marcus Cannon
Defense
DI: Lawrence Guy
DI: Adam Butler
EDGE: Chase Winovich
EDGE: John Simon
LB: Dont’a Hightower
LB: Ja’Whaun Bentley
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: Jason McCourty
CB: Jonathan Jones
S: Devin McCourty
S: Adrian Phillips
Battle to watch: Adrian Phillips vs. Patrick Chung at strong safety
For years, Chung has been the player the Patriots have let loose in the box to take on opposing tight ends in the passing game. He has played at least 500 defensive snaps every season since 2010, and all but one of those seasons came with the Patriots. Last season, Chung saw his role and performance take a hit, though, earning an overall grade of just 55.6 after bringing in 70-plus grades in four of the five previous seasons. At 33 years old, his days as the Patriots’ starting strong safety may be numbered.
Phillips missed much of the 2019 season with the Chargers due to a fractured forearm, but he played well in limited action with an 87.5 overall grade on just shy of 300 defensive snaps. He earned grades of 65.0 or higher in each of 2017 and 2018, as well. There’s a good chance that Phillips could push Chung for the starting job despite Chung’s longtime standing with the team.
Name to watch: Josh Uche
It’s hard to imagine a better landing spot for Uche than New England given Bill Belichick’s experience with hybrid pass rushers. Uche may be undersized for a traditional edge defender, but he flat-out produced in his limited opportunities at Michigan, picking up a pass-rushing grade of 91.7 over the 2018 and 2019 seasons combined. I could see Uche carving out a role for himself on this defense at some point during the 2020 season.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-projecting-all-32-nfl-starting-lineups-ahead-of-the-2020-season
 
33 yrs old. Often injured now. Coming off his poorest season.

I’m not high on the Chung extension.

Flies in the face of everything we’ve been spoon fed. It’s not what you’ve done for us it’s what you can do.

This is the 180 degree opposite tact taken on Brady.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
That won’t change much if he doesn’t develop as a receiving threat. With the Pats RB by committee approach when White comes in they pass, Michel they run. Nobody will respect pass when Michel is in there. By now, a 1st round pick that showed plenty of receiving potential at Georgia should be further along in his game than he is.
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I don't know about that, last year White had a 3:2 ratio of passes vs runs (95 targets vs67 rushes). Not enough for the defenses to cheat IMO. I do know that the Pats are equally effective pass or run when White is on the field
White yards per target =6.8
White yards per run = 6.8
So what difference does it make if they pass more when he is on the field? Obviously defenses can't take advantage of it because whether the Pats attempt a pass or run, the result is the same: a gain of 6.8 yards.

For comparison, Michel's targets and rush attempts are way more skewed, and it showed in his production.
247 rushes and only 20 targets, so you are right: he runs a lot more than he catches and defenses take advantage by successfully stacking the box.
Michel yards per target - 4.7
Michel yards per rush - 3.7

Still, when Michel went out for a pass his yards per target was higher than when he rushed. I guess the problem is that he should have been thrown to more often.

In 2018 Michel did much better running, average 4.5 yard per carry (and also 4.5 yards per target). As you say, Michel had a sophomore slump last year. Will he snap back or continue downhill? IDK

I don't think the White-pass/Michel-run plan is all that different than other teams, though. Most teams have feature backs and third down (change of pace) backs. We're just lucky to have White who rushes and catches equally well. Like McCaffrey and Kamara.

How boring is my life that I have so much time to spend on pro-football-reference.com? Sad.
 
spacecrime said:
I don't know about that, last year White had a 3:2 ratio of passes vs runs (95 targets vs67 rushes). Not enough for the defenses to cheat IMO. I do know that the Pats are equally effective pass or run when White is on the field
White yards per target =6.8
White yards per run = 6.8
So what difference does it make if they pass more when he is on the field? Obviously defenses can't take advantage of it because whether the Pats attempt a pass or run, the result is the same: a gain of 6.8 yards.

For comparison, Michel's targets and rush attempts are way more skewed, and it showed in his production.
247 rushes and only 20 targets, so you are right: he runs a lot more than he catches and defenses take advantage by successfully stacking the box.
Michel yards per target - 4.7
Michel yards per rush - 3.7

Still, when Michel went out for a pass his yards per target was higher than when he rushed. I guess the problem is that he should have been thrown to more often.

In 2018 Michel did much better running, average 4.5 yard per carry (and also 4.5 yards per target). As you say, Michel had a sophomore slump last year. Will he snap back or continue downhill? IDK

I don't think the White-pass/Michel-run plan is all that different than other teams, though. Most teams have feature backs and third down (change of pace) backs. We're just lucky to have White who rushes and catches equally well. Like McCaffrey and Kamara.

How boring is my life that I have so much time to spend on pro-football-reference.com? Sad.
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Well, no more to be said I guess.

They must be WAY overthinking it. Just play White every offensive down. Voluntarily give up 3rd and 4th down too. At 6.8 per we don’t need them.

#unstoppable

If that’s what you took out of last year I ....

I’ll stop.
 
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