Looking At The Patriots 2022

So, if you roll out the team we see today against all those teams today, it would be something like 6, maybe 7 wins.

But given what we're seeing from the team right now, I like this schedule for them.

They have some tough games to start out; they could be 1-3 out of the blocks and I'd be pretty happy with 2-2, particularly if one of the wins is Miami. But they'll be gelling, starting to trust each other, think less, play faster, and do their do their jobs.

The next 6 games will be at least 4-2, should be 5-1, and could realistically be 6-0. At 6-4 or 7-3, with confidence and cohesion growing, but with talent and depth that they didn't have last year, they're in position to take control of the rest of the season. If by that point they've shown they can dominate at times, and shown heart and clutch...there's no telling from there on out. Even at 5-5, if the wins are the right kind of wins they have the straight up talent to make a run if a few things click.

I mean, based on what we're seeing, if just the OL gels and starts clicking, what are the other significant concerns?
DBs? A month ago this was a huge concern. But not anymore. Not a ton of experience on the corners, and no stud #1 CB, but top to bottom as much talent as I can remember having. 4 and maybe 5 starting-caliber safeties, two (or three?) starting-caliber *CBs, and 3 boundary corners that are solid #2s (one a valid #1, but not a stud)? That ain't nothing. And the issues that are there are the kind that tend to be addressed as the year goes on.
LBs? I see at least 4 legit starters with wildly varied skillets that Mayo and La Familia Belichick can play chess with, plus a couple of role players. I think Jennings could be an absolute star. And Dugger and Peppers can play that hybrid box safety/speed LB role to ramp up that flexibility and customization even more. Here again, the concern is experience and cohesion, not talent. Those tend to become less of a concern as the year goes on.

That doesn't mean they will come together and have a 2001-style run. I'm just saying that this is the most talented group we've had in awhile. They are flawed in that they don't have the core veteran leadership we're so used to having, but if they keep a steady ship, continue to focus on the steady incremental improvements, and gel as a group...
If they do come together, this could be a terrifying group down the stretch. No one stud you can scheme to stop or avoid, on either side of the ball. And they have the depth to handle a moderate to even pretty bad injury run at most positions.

In my mind it comes down to the OL first, then confidence and cohesion. They need to start to get it by mid-October, then let the stars and heroes emerge.
 
We made the playoffs last year. You don't think that 2022 Mac is a better QB than Rookie Mac? Or that our receivers are far better than last year?
Realistically I call it a successful season. If they make playoffs again. They’re still a rebuilding team .Not yet a contender. Let’s see if they can exceed my expectations .
 
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L-@Miami
W-@Pittsburgh
W-Baltimore
L-@GB
W-Detroit
W-@Cleveland
W-Chicago
W-@NYJ
L-Indy
W-NYJ
W-@Minny
L-Buffalo
W-@Arizona
L-@Las Vegas
W-Cincy
W-Miami
L-@Buffalo

11-6 losing to Buffalo last game of the season for the Division. Wild card team.

They might beat GB and/or Indy too... Can you imagine?

I place less value on what we see in these joint practices and even the pre-season games. This year these are all about the individual players earning the specific spots. There is ZERO game/opponent planning. Belichick will scheme both sides of the ball the Patriots strengths.

FWIW (nothing), I think I had them at 12-5 last year and they came in 10-7 and made the playoffs. Yes, they are better (talent wise) this year. The thing that could blow up the season (not predicting it will) is if this "process" fails completely. I don't see BB waiting to much past the 4th week to change that up is it isn't humming by then.

Have at it.

I'm not so optimistic but, who knows, the team could come together sooner than usual.

L-@Miami. Yeah. It's in Miami, the only place the Pats suffer the Gillette Curse of Thierry Henry, Tiger Woods and Roger Federer. Each athlete's career was cut short by the razor's curse.
W-@Pittsburgh. Stacked on O and STs. A young QB similar to us. At Pitt. Toss up but the Pats take advantage of a mistake & Tomlin. W.
L-Baltimore. Stacked team with great D and STs. If they stay healthy they'll be a tough out against anyone.
L-@GB. Great D. O is suspect despite ARodgers. Young receivers. If we can stop their running game and if the stage isn't too big for Mac we should win. BIG IF.
W-Detroit.
W-@Cleveland. Tough physical game but I agree.
W-Chicago
W-@NYJ
L-Indy. Indy could be tough with their running game but this one is at Gillette. Toss up but, yeah, an L.
W-NYJ
L-@Minny. In Minny. Long trip. Cousins is a lot better than people think. Great D. Minny will be playing for their playoff lives. Toss up but I see another AWAY L.
L-Buffalo
W-@Arizona. Another long trip. Another team playing for a playoff berth. This toss up should be a W.
L-@Las Vegas. Vegas is VG on O and D. Carr is a vg QB. Practices there should help us with familiarity but...maybe next time. L.
W-Cincy. They lost in the SB so is the Loser's Curse on them? Burrow's emergency appendectomy says "yes". Our 4th toss up game
L-Miami. At home this time but it's still an L.
L-@Buffalo

I have 4 toss up games and the Pats go 2-2 in those games.

I have the Pats with an 8-9 record this morning but ask me again tomorrow or after we win Game 1 in Miami!
BB is showing less than nothing to opposing teams this preseason. That gives me some hope for a better record.
 
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I don't know what to think about this season. I think folks should be understanding that this is still a re-build. Our QB is only going into year two after what even his critics would have to concede was a pretty good rookie season. There has been a real coaching change as well and a new offensive style that will take time. I'm good with all this. You can't build a new team in one or two years. I think in Mac's 3rd year we'll see a further leap and that brings the team along as well.

My most optimistic scenario is below...10-7. I think we'll be rusty to begin in Miami, we should win a good chuck of the next games though. Then I think we go on a losing streak of about 4 games before finishing with two wins. But I think we lose both Bills games.

Screenshot 2022-08-25 at 11.33.03.png
 
So, if you roll out the team we see today against all those teams today, it would be something like 6, maybe 7 wins.

But given what we're seeing from the team right now, I like this schedule for them.

They have some tough games to start out; they could be 1-3 out of the blocks and I'd be pretty happy with 2-2, particularly if one of the wins is Miami. But they'll be gelling, starting to trust each other, think less, play faster, and do their do their jobs.

The next 6 games will be at least 4-2, should be 5-1, and could realistically be 6-0. At 6-4 or 7-3, with confidence and cohesion growing, but with talent and depth that they didn't have last year, they're in position to take control of the rest of the season. If by that point they've shown they can dominate at times, and shown heart and clutch...there's no telling from there on out. Even at 5-5, if the wins are the right kind of wins they have the straight up talent to make a run if a few things click.

I mean, based on what we're seeing, if just the OL gels and starts clicking, what are the other significant concerns?
DBs? A month ago this was a huge concern. But not anymore. Not a ton of experience on the corners, and no stud #1 CB, but top to bottom as much talent as I can remember having. 4 and maybe 5 starting-caliber safeties, two (or three?) starting-caliber *CBs, and 3 boundary corners that are solid #2s (one a valid #1, but not a stud)? That ain't nothing. And the issues that are there are the kind that tend to be addressed as the year goes on.
LBs? I see at least 4 legit starters with wildly varied skillets that Mayo and La Familia Belichick can play chess with, plus a couple of role players. I think Jennings could be an absolute star. And Dugger and Peppers can play that hybrid box safety/speed LB role to ramp up that flexibility and customization even more. Here again, the concern is experience and cohesion, not talent. Those tend to become less of a concern as the year goes on.

That doesn't mean they will come together and have a 2001-style run. I'm just saying that this is the most talented group we've had in awhile. They are flawed in that they don't have the core veteran leadership we're so used to having, but if they keep a steady ship, continue to focus on the steady incremental improvements, and gel as a group...
If they do come together, this could be a terrifying group down the stretch. No one stud you can scheme to stop or avoid, on either side of the ball. And they have the depth to handle a moderate to even pretty bad injury run at most positions.

In my mind it comes down to the OL first, then confidence and cohesion. They need to start to get it by mid-October, then let the stars and heroes emerge.
Belichick.
 
What do you think based on what we know now?
11-6 at the absolute low end. There's a real chance they're 9-0 at the bye. But people have allowed the BSM to slant their views. I said this when the schedule came out, if they're not 6-3 at the bye, there needs to be trades and staff changes, and a full tank job. 7-2 at the bye, 4-4 in the 2nd half is realistically what I see.
 
11-6 at the absolute low end. There's a real chance they're 9-0 at the bye. But people have allowed the BSM to slant their views. I said this when the schedule came out, if they're not 6-3 at the bye, there needs to be trades and staff changes, and a full tank job. 7-2 at the bye, 4-4 in the 2nd half is realistically what I see.

Man, I hope so. That would be outstanding. I have doubts with our OL playing so inconsistently...so far anyway.
 
I have no idea how this season will play out. Based on training camp news I think the offense will take some time to gel, especially since Mac basically has to start over (sort of).

I'm still optimistic because I feel if the pass rush becomes the monster that it looks like from time to time, it won't matter what corners are out there. I'd like to think that's exactly what BB was going for, but of course we gotta wait and see if that will be the case in the regular season. Also those limber LBs will have to prove they can stop the run.

If I were to be pressed for a record, I would say 11-6 -- a one game improvement from last year, but still not enough to make noise in the playoffs. I do think the team will go on a period where it'll string several wins together, and games we considered losses become dominant wins. The issue with young teams is how the season ends, which is the biggest issue Pats faced last year. Me thinks it'll be similar this year but with a noticeable improvement.
 
I like all of your optimism but I just can't seem to find much at this point. Everything I'm seeing/reading about training camp really worries me. I really hope that this is the biggest bamboozle that Belichick has ever pulled on the NFL and they come out guns blazing. But right now with the poor OL play I just worry that they're not going to be able to get the running game going and that's going to affect the entire offense. If they can match their record from last season I will be ecstatic but I'm anticipating a slight regression.
 
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Everything I'm seeing/reading about training camp really worries me.
Bear in mind these are the same people who roasted the Patriots draft, questioning if Belichick had dementia, and, shock and surprise, they can all play.

It's sad that the BSM agenda is stronger than it's ever been, but trust your eyes over the words of self-promoters, and remember this is a gameplan dependent team.

Would you be stunned if the Patriots come out in 12 or 22 personnel and run power week 1? I know I wouldn't, with a rookie hc on the other side.
 
I like all of your optimism but I just can't seem to find much at this point. Everything I'm seeing/reading about training camp really worries me. I really hope that this is the biggest bamboozle that Belichick has ever pulled on the NFL and they could out guns blazing. But right now with the poor OL play I just worry that they're not going to be able to get the running game going and that's going to affect the entire offense. If they can match their record from last season I will be ecstatic but I'm anticipating a slight regression.

Too many folks are trying to decide on this team based on camp and a couple of fake games. Don't do that. BB could NOT CARE LESS what things "look like" to us or the press. He wants to see certain things and those things have ZERO to do what we want to see. The pre-season can't be used to determine the regular season.
 
Bear in mind these are the same people who roasted the Patriots draft, questioning if Belichick had dementia, and, shock and surprise, they can all play.

It's sad that the BSM agenda is stronger than it's ever been, but trust your eyes over the words of self-promoters, and remember this is a gameplan dependent team.

Would you be stunned if the Patriots come out in 12 or 22 personnel and run power week 1? I know I wouldn't, with a rookie hc on the other side.


Nor would I be surprised to see Mac throw it 40 times if that is what the game plan calls for week 1.
 
Lawrence Guy has played plenty of fullback, that's all I'm saying.

Agreed. I am not predicting either. I am predicting we don't know (or have a clue) what the game plan will be and that BB does.

To those clutching pearls over the pre-season so far, can you please articulate the game plans used in the first 2 games? What was installed specifically to beat Carolina and the Giants?
 
Realistically I call it a successful season. If they make playoffs again. They’re still a rebuilding team .Not yet a contender. Let’s see if they can exceed my expectations .
We'll see. That's why the play the games instead of awarding Lombardis by analyzing rosters :toast:
 
I'm not so optimistic but, who knows, the team could come together sooner than usual.

L-@Miami. Yeah. It's in Miami, the only place the Pats suffer the Gillette Curse of Thierry Henry, Tiger Woods and Roger Federer. Each athlete's career was cut short by the razor's curse.
W-@Pittsburgh. Stacked on O and STs. A young QB similar to us. At Pitt. Toss up but the Pats take advantage of a mistake & Tomlin. W.
L-Baltimore. Stacked team with great D and STs. If they stay healthy they'll be a tough out against anyone.
L-@GB. Great D. O is suspect despite ARodgers. Young receivers. If we can stop their running game and if the stage isn't too big for Mac we should win. BIG IF.
W-Detroit.
W-@Cleveland. Tough physical game but I agree.
W-Chicago
W-@NYJ
L-Indy. Indy could be tough with their running game but this one is at Gillette. Toss up but, yeah, an L.
W-NYJ
L-@Minny. In Minny. Long trip. Cousins is a lot better than people think. Great D. Minny will be playing for their playoff lives. Toss up but I see another AWAY L.
L-Buffalo
W-@Arizona. Another long trip. Another team playing for a playoff berth. This toss up should be a W.
L-@Las Vegas. Vegas is VG on O and D. Carr is a vg QB. Practices there should help us with familiarity but...maybe next time. L.
W-Cincy. They lost in the SB so is the Loser's Curse on them? Burrow's emergency appendectomy says "yes". Our 4th toss up game
L-Miami. At home this time but it's still an L.
L-@Buffalo

I have 4 toss up games and the Pats go 2-2 in those games.

I have the Pats with an 8-9 record this morning but ask me again tomorrow or after we win Game 1 in Miami!
BB is showing less than nothing to opposing teams this preseason. That gives me some hope for a better record.
I basically agree with 6-4 to start, give or take a win. But given that most of the problems that we're seeing are cohesion issues and inexperience, don't you think a Belichick team is improving enough, and has enough depth, to close out better than 2-5? Yes, it's a tough schedule and I think it would probably be 2-5 or worse if we played each of those games now, but by Halloween...2-5 seems to really not trust the process.

If we played all our games immediately, I think we are 5-12 or 6-11. Playing them as they come out? Given cohesion, player development, system comfort, and the depth we have that so many teams lack, I'd say 9 wins is a disappointment, and 10 is a push. And I say that acknowledging that we could very reasonably start out 0-4.
 
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