I was just looking at some too-early power rankings, and they had the Patriots at 19. I would put them at 14, and I think they have the potential to stretch into the top ~8. That's power. That doesn't necessarily mean it will translate into W/L record. The division is brutal, they have 4 games against teams that are in everyone's top 5, 9 against teams in most top 10s, and they only have 1-2 games on the schedule against teams that are likely to be terrible.
And yet...
Without knowing the schedule, byes, short weeks, travel weeks, etc., I think there's 10 wins there, squeaking into the playoffs as a team that no one wants to face, much like Jacksonville and Seattle were last year.
This defense has the potential to be nasty, and will almost certainly be better in weeks 15-18 than 1-4. They can matchup nicely against Miami's speed and Buffalo's size. The biggest question is how quickly someone gets up to speed in DMac's brain of the defense role. There is depth, flexibility, experience, and athleticism.
The offense has depth and flexibility, but not star power. Mac doesn't need to be a top 5 QB to make this offense go, though. Being a top 5 point guard should be sufficient to keep the defense out of bad situations and score enough most of the time. If Thornton has a 2nd year leap, and the tackles are adequate, this offense could dramatically outperform. If either one of those things happens they should be good enough to get to the playoffs, and if they're peaking at the right time, they could be very dangerous.
Special teams outright lost them two games last year, and that doesn't count Buffalo2. Back to adequacy should be enough.
The defense has very few areas of true weakness, which should provide consistency. They also have a broad range of options to deploy as chess pieces at a variety of positions, which should allow BB, Steve, and Mayo to scheme away part of opposing offenses. And with the pure playmaking ability and instincts of all 3 Joneses, Dugger, Uche, Judon, and potential emergence of playmaking ability in guys like Barmore and Gonzalez, they're going to get the ball back for the offense...a lot. The offense should, at the very least, have improved enough to not constantly be dumping additional strain on the defense. The benefit of moving on from Meyers (opportunity cost of having him as a security blanket, and the predictability of him as the target at critical times) will become apparent by midyear.
This could be a year of highly complementary football. As I said, right now I'd place them at around 14, ahead of teams like Pittsburgh, Vikings, Browns, Saints, and Giants, but behind Seattle, Detroit, Chargers and Jags. I think their floor is probably in the 19-21 range, ceiling in the 6-8 range. I don't see a reasonable way that by year's end they are a better team than KC, Philly, Cinci, or Buffalo, or SF if the 9ers get even reasonable play at QB. But they could definitely be better than one or more of Detroit, Chargers, Dolphins, Jets. And possibly the Seahawks, Jags, Cowboys, and/or Ravens if things break well.
All that is assuming a reasonably low & even level of injuries. When you take the attrition of a 17 game NFL season into account, the Pats look better, not worse. There are very few teams that can better absorb injuries to key starters than the Patriots. Of the 13 teams I put ahead of them now, 8 are AFC teams. I think it's a solid bet that they end up better than at least 2 of those 8, and are a playoff-worthy team. Given their schedule, that might not be enough to get in unless they get to that level more quickly than normal.
