Towards the 53...

Flagg the Wanderer

Sonic sez: Clawk Moar Ringz!
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
15,300
Reaction score
4,131
Points
113
Age
45
Location
Iowa
...and PS, and injury stashes, and shadow roster.

A thread for roster projections, cut downs, and everyone's favorites: projected trades!

I can't remember a camp with more interesting roster questions and battles. Within position groups, and real, impactful questions about how many to keep at each position group.

Key questions beyond simple positional battles:
  • Because of Montgomery, how many combined RB & WR? In theory it could be less, but if he's a key contributor/chess piece, does it end up meaning we keep more?
  • It seems that there are a number of guys pushing the traditional ST Ninja core. Does Schooler push someone out? Do the tight positional battles squeeze out a "Teams only" guy for a guy who provides depth/high potential and can contribute on STs?
  • 3 QBs on the 53? Would Zappe and/or Hoyer make it to PS?
  • Up to 16 practice squad slots this year, and almost anyone can be on it. Plus, 2 can go from PS to game day roster each week, so it's useful to play matchups. BUT there are maximum PS salaries, so it's hard to prevent guys from getting poached as we've done in the past.

Absolute roster locks in all cases except injury/retirement (31):
--- Offense (13)
QB Jones
RB Stevenson, D Harris, Strong
TE Henry, Smith
WR Parker, Bourne, Thornton
OT Brown
IOL Andrews, Strange
OL Onwenu
--- Defense (14):
F7 Barmore, Godcheaux, Guy, Bentley, Judon, McMillan, Wilson
DB Mills, Jon Jones, Mar Jones, Jack Jones, Phillips, Dugger, McCourty,
--- Spec (4) Bailey, Folk, Cardona, Slater

Potential trades (in order of likelihood, though all are unlikely) (3):
  • Agholor or (much less likely) Meyers (both are locks unless traded)
  • Wynn (near roster lock unless traded)
  • (One of the depth DBs TBD)

(34 above, plus) Near-locks (45):
QB (2): Zappe*
Skill (11): Montgomery
OL (7): Ferentz, Cajuste
F7 (10): Wise (should probably be above, but let me dream that there's at least some small chance of cutting him...), Jennings, Uche
DBs (10): Mitchell, Peppers
Spec (5): Bethel

That's what I see as the core of the game day roster: those 45 (*most likely swapping Hoyer for Zappe on game day, but I see at least some small chance of Hoyer getting cut, but almost zero chance of Zappe getting cut, and it may be easier to get Hoyer to the PS), plus 3 others, one of whom has to be an OL.

But that leaves a bunch of questions. Without even looking at the OL, there are a LOT of guys left who I'm pretty confident deserve to be playing (or at least wearing pads) on Sundays. Here are 11:
  • Hoyer
  • WRs Nixon & Humphries
  • F7 Anderson, Davis & Ray
  • DBs Bledsoe, Bryant, & Wade
- Spec: Davis & Schooler

A little less confident in this group of 9 more, but they're close and/or have strong upside and have shown something significant:
Skill: Harris & Wilkerson
F7: Roberts, Ekuale, McGrone, Mitchell, & Tavai
DB: Butler, Elliot

That's 65 guys, with only 7 OL included! There are some tough decisions ahead.

...but not today. Today, please cut Joejuan Williams and move on. Unless you think he's useful as a TC physical press corner for training purposes, I guess. In that case, cut WR Josh Hammond so the other 8.5(!) viable WRs get that many more reps.

Getting close now...

What are your thoughts, key questions?
 

chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
69,425
Reaction score
25,407
Points
113
Location
Canton, MA
Always a tough exercise. Kudos.

Williams went to IR with an injury. I guess he could be cut with an injury settlement. He still has around $2M on the books for this year if on IR.
 
OP
OP
Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

Sonic sez: Clawk Moar Ringz!
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
15,300
Reaction score
4,131
Points
113
Age
45
Location
Iowa
I think any of the people who were sat out in Week 1 of the preseason should be considered roster locks.
I was going to start with that, but there were a few that made me go 🤔. Since there were potentially other reasons they might be on the list, I decided not to do that. That first group are absolute mortal locks, where I couldn't imagine any reasonable scenario where they're not on every game day roster when they're healthy, even if surprise guys emerge as superheroes behind them, etc.
 

3 Point Stan

POW! Right in the kissah.
Joined
Oct 24, 2005
Messages
15,642
Reaction score
3,268
Points
113
Age
45
Location
MA
As we live and breath on August 16th, I can't find anything to dispute, Flagg. Good stab.
 

sg14

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2012
Messages
2,411
Reaction score
439
Points
83
This mean Perkins (amongst others) are out?
Think I counted 6 lbs making it?
I can see Russey in lieu of Ferentz.
Watch out for a late push by Hines.
I can see Uche being traded.

So much potential with Roberts how do you let him go,,,

Good luck
 
OP
OP
Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

Sonic sez: Clawk Moar Ringz!
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
15,300
Reaction score
4,131
Points
113
Age
45
Location
Iowa
This mean Perkins (amongst others) are out?
Think I counted 6 lbs making it?
I can see Russey in lieu of Ferentz.
Watch out for a late push by Hines.
I can see Uche being traded.

So much potential with Roberts how do you let him go,,,

Good luck
In order:
Yes, but he could show enough to PS;
3 off the line, 2 Edge LBs, 1 that looks to be both, yes. But one of the extra guys is probably a true DL;
Definitely possible;
I was high on Hines, but haven't watched him much to date; aaaand
True, and this is something that crossed my mind but didn't make the post.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

Too Weird to Live/Too Rare To Die
Joined
Apr 8, 2008
Messages
67,725
Reaction score
21,545
Points
113
Location
America (Fuck Yeah)
...and PS, and injury stache, and shadow roster.

A thread for roster projections, cut downs, and everyone's favorites: projected trades!

I can't remember a camp with more interesting roster questions and battles. Within position groups, and real, impactful questions about how many to keep at each position group.

Key questions beyond simple positional battles:
  • Because of Montgomery, how many combined RB & WR? In theory it could be less, but if he's a key contributor/chess piece, does it end up meaning we keep more?
  • It seems that there are a number of guys pushing the traditional ST Ninja core. Does Schooler push someone out? Do the tight positional battles squeeze out a "Teams only" guy for a guy who provides depth/high potential and can contribute on STs?
  • 3 QBs on the 53? Would Zappe and/or Hoyer make it to PS?
  • Up to 16 practice squad slots this year, and almost anyone can be on it. Plus, 2 can go from PS to game day roster each week, so it's useful to play matchups. BUT there are maximum PS salaries, so it's hard to prevent guys from getting poached as we've done in the past.

Absolute roster locks in all cases except injury/retirement (31):
--- Offense (13)
QB Jones
RB Stevenson, D Harris, Strong
TE Henry, Smith
WR Parker, Bourne, Thornton
OT Brown
IOL Andrews, Strange
OL Onwenu
--- Defense (14):
F7 Barmore, Godcheaux, Guy, Bentley, Judon, McMillan, Wilson
DB Mills, Jon Jones, Mar Jones, Jack Jones, Phillips, Dugger, McCourty,
--- Spec (4) Bailey, Folk, Cardona, Slater

Potential trades (in order of likelihood, though all are unlikely) (3):
  • Agholor or (much less likely) Meyers (both are locks unless traded)
  • Wynn (near roster lock unless traded)
  • (One of the depth DBs TBD)

(34 above, plus) Near-locks (45):
QB (2): Zappe*
Skill (11): Montgomery
OL (7): Ferentz, Cajuste
F7 (10): Wise (should probably be above, but let me dream that there's at least some small chance of cutting him...), Jennings, Uche
DBs (10): Mitchell, Peppers
Spec (5): Bethel

That's what I see as the core of the game day roster: those 45 (*most likely swapping Hoyer for Zappe on game day, but I see at least some small chance of Hoyer getting cut, but almost zero chance of Zappe getting cut, and it may be easier to get Hoyer to the PS), plus 3 others, one of whom has to be an OL.

But that leaves a bunch of questions. Without even looking at the OL, there are a LOT of guys left who I'm pretty confident deserve to be playing (or at least wearing pads) on Sundays. Here are 11:
  • Hoyer
  • WRs Nixon & Humphries
  • F7 Anderson, Davis & Ray
  • DBs Bledsoe, Bryant, & Wade
- Spec: Davis & Schooler

A little less confident in this group of 9 more, but they're close and/or have strong upside and have shown something significant:
Skill: Harris & Wilkerson
F7: Roberts, Ekuale, McGrone, Mitchell, & Tavai
DB: Butler, Elliot

That's 65 guys, with only 7 OL included! There are some tough decisions ahead.

...but not today. Today, please cut Joejuan Williams and move on. Unless you think he's useful as a TC physical press corner for training purposes, I guess. In that case, cut WR Josh Hammond so the other 8.5(!) viable WRs get that many more reps.

Getting close now...

What are your thoughts, key questions?
Whose stache got injured?!?!
 

Big/Sky/Fly

Too Weird to Live/Too Rare To Die
Joined
Apr 8, 2008
Messages
67,725
Reaction score
21,545
Points
113
Location
America (Fuck Yeah)
...and PS, and injury stashes, and shadow roster.

A thread for roster projections, cut downs, and everyone's favorites: projected trades!

I can't remember a camp with more interesting roster questions and battles. Within position groups, and real, impactful questions about how many to keep at each position group.

Key questions beyond simple positional battles:
  • Because of Montgomery, how many combined RB & WR? In theory it could be less, but if he's a key contributor/chess piece, does it end up meaning we keep more?
  • It seems that there are a number of guys pushing the traditional ST Ninja core. Does Schooler push someone out? Do the tight positional battles squeeze out a "Teams only" guy for a guy who provides depth/high potential and can contribute on STs?
  • 3 QBs on the 53? Would Zappe and/or Hoyer make it to PS?
  • Up to 16 practice squad slots this year, and almost anyone can be on it. Plus, 2 can go from PS to game day roster each week, so it's useful to play matchups. BUT there are maximum PS salaries, so it's hard to prevent guys from getting poached as we've done in the past.

Absolute roster locks in all cases except injury/retirement (31):
--- Offense (13)
QB Jones
RB Stevenson, D Harris, Strong
TE Henry, Smith
WR Parker, Bourne, Thornton
OT Brown
IOL Andrews, Strange
OL Onwenu
--- Defense (14):
F7 Barmore, Godcheaux, Guy, Bentley, Judon, McMillan, Wilson
DB Mills, Jon Jones, Mar Jones, Jack Jones, Phillips, Dugger, McCourty,
--- Spec (4) Bailey, Folk, Cardona, Slater

Potential trades (in order of likelihood, though all are unlikely) (3):
  • Agholor or (much less likely) Meyers (both are locks unless traded)
  • Wynn (near roster lock unless traded)
  • (One of the depth DBs TBD)

(34 above, plus) Near-locks (45):
QB (2): Zappe*
Skill (11): Montgomery
OL (7): Ferentz, Cajuste
F7 (10): Wise (should probably be above, but let me dream that there's at least some small chance of cutting him...), Jennings, Uche
DBs (10): Mitchell, Peppers
Spec (5): Bethel

That's what I see as the core of the game day roster: those 45 (*most likely swapping Hoyer for Zappe on game day, but I see at least some small chance of Hoyer getting cut, but almost zero chance of Zappe getting cut, and it may be easier to get Hoyer to the PS), plus 3 others, one of whom has to be an OL.

But that leaves a bunch of questions. Without even looking at the OL, there are a LOT of guys left who I'm pretty confident deserve to be playing (or at least wearing pads) on Sundays. Here are 11:
  • Hoyer
  • WRs Nixon & Humphries
  • F7 Anderson, Davis & Ray
  • DBs Bledsoe, Bryant, & Wade
- Spec: Davis & Schooler

A little less confident in this group of 9 more, but they're close and/or have strong upside and have shown something significant:
Skill: Harris & Wilkerson
F7: Roberts, Ekuale, McGrone, Mitchell, & Tavai
DB: Butler, Elliot

That's 65 guys, with only 7 OL included! There are some tough decisions ahead.

...but not today. Today, please cut Joejuan Williams and move on. Unless you think he's useful as a TC physical press corner for training purposes, I guess. In that case, cut WR Josh Hammond so the other 8.5(!) viable WRs get that many more reps.

Getting close now...

What are your thoughts, key questions?
Harris could be traded...
 

rivshark86

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 7, 2011
Messages
1,364
Reaction score
532
Points
113
I think Harris is worth keeping. This offense is going to be driven by the run game. Either Harris or Stevenson could get dinged up and miss a few weeks. It’s awfully nice having two quality RBs to split carries and punishment over the course of the season. I’ve got no faith in Montgomery. He’s a washed up jag. I’m sure I’ll get called a hater for that opinion. The rookies like always will be eased in over time.
And hell, Harris has never really been unleashed. I hope they feed him. He knows it’s a crucial year for his next contract. Let him go get some!
 

Big/Sky/Fly

Too Weird to Live/Too Rare To Die
Joined
Apr 8, 2008
Messages
67,725
Reaction score
21,545
Points
113
Location
America (Fuck Yeah)
I think Harris is worth keeping. This offense is going to be driven by the run game. Either Harris or Stevenson could get dinged up and miss a few weeks. It’s awfully nice having two quality RBs to split carries and punishment over the course of the season. I’ve got no faith in Montgomery. He’s a washed up jag. I’m sure I’ll get called a hater for that opinion. The rookies like always will be eased in over time.
And hell, Harris has never really been unleashed. I hope they feed him. He knows it’s a crucial year for his next contract. Let him go get some!
He's good, but, he's not getting a big contract in NE. He usually gets injured/not durable. He's on top of his trade value now.

It's possible...
 

Roberto71

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 17, 2012
Messages
14,518
Reaction score
6,763
Points
113
Location
Dublin, Ireland
I thought you had luckily purchased this when I read the title!

zlbHh7iiRgWXCQLrYh6Mbg_pb_x600.png
 

Hawg73

Mediocre with flashes of brilliance
Joined
Nov 26, 2002
Messages
23,902
Reaction score
8,032
Points
113
Age
66
Location
Gumdrop house on Lollipop Ln.
I'd love to make a bunch of predictions, but there is so much churn between now and, say, game 3 or 4 that it's somewhere between
difficult and impossible to handicap the bubble guys now.

I will comment that both the pro and college scouting people appear to have done a good job, because the defensive backfield and O line have more good, young prospects than
we have slots for and some of them we've yet to see at all or barely seen. For instance, I don't want to get overly impressed over Bill Murray when we haven't seen Chasen Hines yet.

Maybe the next two preseason games will give us some more data, but all I know for sure is that we're going to lose some good kids when we have to trim down.
 
OP
OP
Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

Sonic sez: Clawk Moar Ringz!
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
15,300
Reaction score
4,131
Points
113
Age
45
Location
Iowa
I think with the new practice squad rules, the depth of this team, and the mix of youth/potential and veteran experience, a huge part of this exercise comes down to who you think you can get to the practice squad. The 53 is really 48+5+16.

Maybe what makes sense is to look at the players who aren't mortal locks and assess how likely it is that they would clear waivers? Some of that assessment stands on its own , and some of it will shift based on the injury situation around the league.

I'll start with the offense.

QB: neither Hoyer nor Zappe is likely to get through, and I think hoyer's contract is structured to make it difficult to stash him.

RB:
Strong: nope.
Harris: probably not.
Taylor: maybe. He's not a player. You just add if you're not sure what to do with him. But as a backup to a team that has a scat back, or scout team value. More broadly, I don't think anybody would panic if we lost him.

WR:
Thornton: hard no. He's got to be on the 53, then to IR and we can grab someone else to protect them.
Humphries: no
Nixon: probably not, given injuries at WR
Wilkerson: I think he's the most likely to clear waivers unless there's a team who hasn't settled their return depth.

OL: I'm going to keep skipping this for the moment as it's a mess and I haven't really watched the players closely to assess.

Broader question: if there's a player you want to protect, maybe there's value in cutting them a day early, while teams are scrambling to cut rather than add? And would they then clear waivers by the time other teams reach their roster minimums, so you could scoop them back up quickly?

I don't know the rules to know if that's possible, or if the waivers all start together, regardless of when the player was actually cut.
 

Hawg73

Mediocre with flashes of brilliance
Joined
Nov 26, 2002
Messages
23,902
Reaction score
8,032
Points
113
Age
66
Location
Gumdrop house on Lollipop Ln.
After watching a few dozen snaps of each, I'd settle for one, maybe two of Bill Murray, Drew Desjarlais and Will Sherman to the PS.

I don't see any improvement from Herron. Durant makes Fred Munster look fluid, yet both could get on the PS because nobody
would want them based on film and we still haven't seen anything out of Andew Steuber to see if he can take a run at Cajuste for
swing tackle. We need somebody in the pipeline, but I'm tired of waiting on Herron to go a couple of series without fucking up.

Some people think Steuber is a guard, but I think the plans for him will be to compete for the swing job. No idea where we are
at with him, but he's not a scrub like Durant, I don't think.

I doubt the staff has it all sorted just yet. Too close to call. Too many Guards with potential.

We could end up bringing a vet tackle in late and throw all predictions out the window. Counting on Cajuste is a leap of faith.
 

Hawg73

Mediocre with flashes of brilliance
Joined
Nov 26, 2002
Messages
23,902
Reaction score
8,032
Points
113
Age
66
Location
Gumdrop house on Lollipop Ln.
This mean Perkins (amongst others) are out?
Think I counted 6 lbs making it?
I can see Russey in lieu of Ferentz.
Watch out for a late push by Hines.
I can see Uche being traded.

So much potential with Roberts how do you let him go,,,

Good luck

Perkins went ham last Friday. Easily his best. You have to keep him.

I agree on Hines. He could end up starting at RG. He's eerily similar to Shaq Mason as a player.

Uche? Trading him would be nuts. He's getting it and is a top specimen physically.

Roberts should be going absolutely nowhere except to the 53, but now DaMarcus Mitchell is making a bid along
with LaBryan Ray. Something has to give, but out of those 3 Roberts is the one I would pound the table for.

I was worried about the front 7 coming into the year, but now it appears like we've got plenty of young talent and
will lose some that would have stuck in a typical year.
 

spacecrime

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Messages
8,531
Reaction score
3,485
Points
113
Location
Down the lane
I think with the new practice squad rules, the depth of this team, and the mix of youth/potential and veteran experience, a huge part of this exercise comes down to who you think you can get to the practice squad. The 53 is really 48+5+16.

Maybe what makes sense is to look at the players who aren't mortal locks and assess how likely it is that they would clear waivers? Some of that assessment stands on its own , and some of it will shift based on the injury situation around the league.

I'll start with the offense.

QB: neither Hoyer nor Zappe is likely to get through, and I think hoyer's contract is structured to make it difficult to stash him.

RB:
Strong: nope.
Harris: probably not.
Taylor: maybe. He's not a player. You just add if you're not sure what to do with him. But as a backup to a team that has a scat back, or scout team value. More broadly, I don't think anybody would panic if we lost him.

WR:
Thornton: hard no. He's got to be on the 53, then to IR and we can grab someone else to protect them.
Humphries: no
Nixon: probably not, given injuries at WR
Wilkerson: I think he's the most likely to clear waivers unless there's a team who hasn't settled their return depth.

OL: I'm going to keep skipping this for the moment as it's a mess and I haven't really watched the players closely to assess.

Broader question: if there's a player you want to protect, maybe there's value in cutting them a day early, while teams are scrambling to cut rather than add? And would they then clear waivers by the time other teams reach their roster minimums, so you could scoop them back up quickly?

I don't know the rules to know if that's possible, or if the waivers all start together, regardless of when the player was actually cut.
Good question about cutting a player a day early but like you just not sure if it would help. He'd be exposed for a couple of weeks because we wouldn't or couldn't sign up to the practice squad yet. IDK
 
OP
OP
Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

Sonic sez: Clawk Moar Ringz!
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
15,300
Reaction score
4,131
Points
113
Age
45
Location
Iowa
Good question about cutting a player a day early but like you just not sure if it would help. He'd be exposed for a couple of weeks because we wouldn't or couldn't sign up to the practice squad yet. IDK
I thought you signed to the PS basically as soon as the 24h waiver from cutdown day was complete. Am I misremembering?
 

spacecrime

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Messages
8,531
Reaction score
3,485
Points
113
Location
Down the lane
Great, but he could be signed by anyone as soon as we cut him . He'd be part of their 80-man roster
 
OP
OP
Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

Sonic sez: Clawk Moar Ringz!
Joined
Jun 24, 2004
Messages
15,300
Reaction score
4,131
Points
113
Age
45
Location
Iowa
Great, but he could be signed by anyone as soon as we cut him . He'd be part of their 80-man roster
They are working to figure out who to cut, same as us, and he'd still need to go through waivers. They need to go from 80 to 53 in 28 hours. Suddenly we cut a guy. He clears waivers
4h before the cutdown deadline. You're telling me that in the middle of that chaos they'd get the GM staff and coaching staff together and analyze everything to cut one of their guys early so they can put in a waiver claim for the possibility of signing a guy (who they can't evaluate before the deadline, remember) and then continue with their cuts?

Hell, even if it's someone you are neutral on and lose them, it might be worth it just to introduce that much incremental chaos and confusion into the front office operations of every other team during an already stressful time.
 
Top