From The
Athletic
1/2
FOXBORO, Mass. — The last time the
Bills and
Patriots played was late last December in an empty Gillette Stadium. The Bills had already wrapped up the division. The Patriots were winding down their first losing season in 20 years The Bills poured it on in a runaway, 38-9, in which they pulled Josh Allen with nearly a full quarter to play. They became the first team to sweep the Patriots in a season in 19 years. It felt like they were trying to erase two decades of torment in a single night.
“It just shows that we have evolved as an organization and as a team that we’re nobody’s little brother,” Bills tackle
Dion Dawkins said after the game. “We’re not nobody’s little cousin, little dog, no. We’re here. You’re going to respect us. You’re going to play us hard and you’re going to circle us on your schedule, and we’re going to give you the hardest 60 minutes of football that you’ve ever seen.”
The Bills had earned the right to strut. Rare was the chance in the first 20 years of Bill Belichick’s tenure. But the Patriots didn’t stay down for long. They already have more wins this season than they did in 2020. Their roster looks unrecognizable from the one the Bills dominated last December. They got key players back from opt-outs. They spent $160 million in guaranteed money in free agency. They drafted a quarterback in the first round of the draft, and that quarterback is in the running for offensive rookie of the year.
Now they’re heading to Orchard Park for the first of two December meetings with the Bills. The Patriots enter this stretch in first place of the AFC East but have spent the week showing deference to the defending division champions.
“They are the team to beat in the AFC East,” linebacker
Kyle Van Noy said. “They were No. 1.”
Were is the operative word. Sean McDermott made a point to refer to the Patriots as the “first place Patriots” in his news conference earlier this week. While Buffalo fans may have basked in New England’s 2020 demise, those within the Bills organization never took their eye off Belichick and the Patriots. Even when the Patriots were 2-4, the Bills knew the object in the mirror was closer than it appeared.
These two teams have been on a collision course since the Patriots began their six-game winning streak. They’re now set to play in arguably the most high-stakes game these two franchises have played since the late 1990s. It’s been that long since this game meant this much to both teams. In 2019, the division was still in the balance when these teams met in December, but the Patriots made easy work of that Bills team.
Tom Brady was still in New England, and Allen was only in his second season.
For the 19 years prior to that, the Patriots beat up on the Bills at a historic rate. Brady was 32-3 against the Bills with the Patriots. Belcihick has a 35-7 record against Buffalo. While the Patriots enjoyed an unprecedented run of success beginning in 2001, the Bills were caught in a historic playoff drought prior to McDermott’s arrival in 2017.
Even when the Bills-Patriots matchup meant everything to Buffalo, it wasn’t a game the Patriots needed. You have to go back to 1998 to find a game that had this type of playoff implications for both teams. They played two times in three weeks in November, splitting the season series. Both ended up as wild-card teams. Between then and 2017, the Bills and Patriots weren’t in the postseason at the same time. Since Belichick took over, the Bills and Patriots have both made the playoffs in the same year just twice. This season could mark the third such occasion.
After a one-year slump, the Patriots have themselves right back in contention for the division title. And now that they’re back, the Patriots finally have a worthy foe in the AFC East.
“Good as anybody we’ve played,” Belichick said this week.
Here’s what to look for in this Monday night matchup.
When the Bills have the ball
1. Everything starts with Allen. Belichick is always complimentary of the Patriots’ opponents, but he took it to another level with Allen this week.
“His improvement has just been tremendous,” Belichick said. “Where it was three years ago, completion percentage, passer rating, decision making, production, it has just gone up. It’s risen at a really remarkable rate. It’s just remarkable how good he has become. Last year, this year, he’s built on that, what it was when he came into the league, but he’s really made tremendous improvement and has a lot of command of the offense … He doesn’t get fooled much by anything. It’s really, really impressive to watch how he’s developed there.”
Allen has will be in the MVP race. He has been a bit shaky in the last month, though. He has interceptions in four straight games and multiple interceptions in three of Buffalo’s last four games. That’s something to watch in this game. The Patriots lead the
NFL in interceptions with 19 and are intercepting 4.8 percent of passes thrown. Before Allen had his 320-yard, four-touchdown game against the Patriots last December, he hadn’t thrown for more than 217 yards in a game against Belichick and completed 60 percent of his passes only once. We’ll see whether he cracked the code at the end of last season or if Belichick can bring him down to earth.
Allen is still prone to a mistake now and again, but the Patriots know how explosive this offense can be. Allen is no longer just a talented player capable of explosive plays. He’s a quarterback, reading and manipulating defenses and executing the vision of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.
“We can’t let them get rolling, because once they get rolling it’s tough,” safety
Devin McCourty said. “Then you’re getting a little bit of everything from the offense. It’s going to be our toughest challenge of the season.”
2. In the final meeting between these two teams a year ago,
Stefon Diggs had nine catches for 135 yards and three touchdowns. New England’s defense will look a lot different than it did then, but the Bills also added
Emmanuel Sanders and got another year of development from
Gabriel Davis and
Dawson Knox. They still have
Cole Beasley in the slot. Under Belichick, the Patriots have always been great at taking away a team’s biggest threat, but that’s tougher to do against Buffalo.
“You can’t just take Diggs away and think the game is solidified,” McCourty said.
3. The Patriots are coming off a game in which they allowed 270 rushing yards. That wasn’t an ideal performance from a defense that had performed well in that area for much of the season. Buffalo hasn’t had much success running the ball.
Devin Singletary leads the team with 459 rushing yards, and Allen is right behind him with 383. The Bills were able to run on the Patriots in their two meetings last season, but this New England defense has improved personnel and the results to back it up.
4. Despite bringing back the same group from a year ago, the Bills’ offensive line has been average. They rank in the middle of the pack, allowing pressure on 33.3 percent of Allen’s dropbacks. Left tackle Dion Dawkins has taken a step back this year. He’s allowed at least four pressures in three different games this season. He only did that once in the entire 2020 season. Lucky for him, Matthew Judon is often lined up over the right tackle. But that may not necessarily be a better situation for the Bills.
“You watch the film of him impacting quarterbacks and it’s not fun to watch,” McDermott said. “I can promise you that.”