The player list format for all these posts will be:
PLAYER (2012 cap hit) (2013 cap hit) (2014 cap hit) ... etc.
The cap hit numbers are given as $k (e.g., $2.15 million is written as 2150) for easier comparison and are a combination of info published by spotrac.com, nyjetscap.com and rotoworld, all of which seem to pretty much verify each other, and are certainly close enough for the rough figuring we'll be doing here.
DL Core (interior DL "heavies")
(as of 1/28/13)
WILFORK .. (8600) (10600) (11600) (UFA)
LOVE ......... (790) ..(1000) ..(UFA)
DEADERICK ...(558) ..(648) ...(UFA)
FORSTON ...............(480) ....(570) .(RFA)
ARMSTEAD .............(405) ....(495) .(585) (RFA)
ROBERTSON ............(405) ....(495) .(ERFA)
PRYOR (IR)..(565) (UFA)
BRACE .....(1370) (waived 12/29/12)
WILFORK (6012/325+) continued to play a huge percentage of snaps in 2012 and at a HOF-worthy level. He'll turn 32 next November and the obvious question is how many more seasons might he be able to sustain such extreme usage and still maintain this level of play consistently? A decline is inevitable at some point and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to begin to see signs of it next season or in 2014. HOWEVER, his role on the DL has been primarily as a block-eating gap-stuffer and only secondarily as a penetrator. It's entirely possible that he could continue to be effective in that primary role for a couple years beyond 2014 - IF he's paired with another guy who's a serious interior force, even if the guy isn't the greatest run-stuffer. After all, there are three pretty good, relatively big-bodied run-stuffers behind the DL now to quickly catch what the DL might allow in terms of runs between the tackles.
LOVE (6011/315) has been a pretty solid undertackle "sidekick" for Wilfork for the past two seasons - a reliable gap-controlling run-stuffer who, according to PFF, actually graded out a bit higher than Deaderick in terms of rush-pressure, though that's not saying a whole lot. I see him sticking on the roster for 2013, but I'm not sure he gets and early extension beyond that.
DEADERICK's (6037/305) run-D appeared to improve a bit in 2012, but it was still not nearly as solid as Love's. That Deaderick started getting more snaps than Love beginning in the Wk-12 embar-ass-ment of the Jets (even though he's seen by PFF as a slightly less effective penetrator than Love) might be due to his greater effectiveness shifting to 3-4DE mode and coming off an edge. But I don't see him as ever becoming a mainstay DT. It's possible he sticks for 2013, but he has some competition now for his role in the taller, DT/34DE role, and I don't see him staying with the Pats beyond the end of his rookie deal in any case.
ARMSTEAD (6042/298) was a pretty effective DL for USC as a Junior in 2010 (sat out 2011), and for Toronto in 2012, so it's not unreasonable to have some expectations for him on the 2013 Pats DL, likely targeting a similar role to Deaderick's. But nothing is proven, yet.
ROBERTSON (6035/286) played mostly on the interior for Baylor (which is why I have him here for now, rather than with the edge-rushers) providing consistent, if not inspiring, production for three seasons. He could end up anywhere from a reserve on the 53 to being merely a Camp body.
FORSTON (6012/301) had a very good Junior season in 2010 for the Hurricanes as a solid tackler who got good penetration, but got derailed by injury as a Senior. He may be a Myron Pryor type or an insurance policy for Love or just a perennial PS guy. Hard to know where he fits yet.
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PRYOR hasn't played a down of football since mid-September 2011 and, with the new guys aboard, I don't see any real reason to offer him a new contract. I think he's done.
BRACE is already gone, of course.
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2013 potential UNIT CAP HIT (with currently signed players above) = $13.6M (not including any additional signings)
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Here's the thing for me. I don't see any among Love, Deaderick, Armstead, Robertson and Forston as being a long-term understudy/replacement for Wilfork, though a Love-Armstead tandem could relieve Wilfork of a few more snaps in 2013, if Armstead meets the higher expectations that many have for him.
So, I think there still exists the possibility that the Pats draft a big-body DT and/or sign a veteran in FA. However, with Armstead aboard, it may not now be the 1st/2nd round pick or a high-end FA that I was previously thinking it might be. In any case, a DT selected at #29 only hits the 2013 cap for around $1.3M, and, if BB trades down into the 2nd, he can probably still get a pretty good prospect at a "discount" from that. But almost any FA would hit the cap for at least $3.0M for 2013 with a contract that generates some dead money if he's cut. Below are some POTENTIAL FA adds (with their 2012 cap-hits). I'm not recommending anyone, just listing a few for some perspective:
- Glenn Dorsey (KCY) ......6'2"/316 AGE 27 ($6.4M) currently on IR (calf)
- Randy Starks (MIA) ......6'3"/312 AGE 29 ($5.0M)
- Alan Branch (SEA) .......6'6"/324 AGE 28 ($4.6M)
- Mike DeVito (NYJ) .......6'3"/298 AGE 28 ($2.5M)
- Desmond Bryant (OAK) ....6'5"/290 AGE 27 ($1.9M)
- Terrance Knighton (JAX) .6'2"/295 AGE 26 ($1.5M)
- Vance Walker (ATL) ......6'2"/295 AGE 25 ($1.3M)
- Sammie Lee Hill (DET) ...6'4"/329 AGE 26 ($1.3M)
- Justin Bannan (DEN) .....6'3"/305 AGE 33 ($1.0M)
So, the questions are:
- Do the Pats need to add more at DT in the first place?
- If so, what draft picks/FAs seems best to fill out the UNIT for 2013 and going forward?
PLAYER (2012 cap hit) (2013 cap hit) (2014 cap hit) ... etc.
The cap hit numbers are given as $k (e.g., $2.15 million is written as 2150) for easier comparison and are a combination of info published by spotrac.com, nyjetscap.com and rotoworld, all of which seem to pretty much verify each other, and are certainly close enough for the rough figuring we'll be doing here.
DL Core (interior DL "heavies")
(as of 1/28/13)
WILFORK .. (8600) (10600) (11600) (UFA)
LOVE ......... (790) ..(1000) ..(UFA)
DEADERICK ...(558) ..(648) ...(UFA)
FORSTON ...............(480) ....(570) .(RFA)
ARMSTEAD .............(405) ....(495) .(585) (RFA)
ROBERTSON ............(405) ....(495) .(ERFA)
PRYOR (IR)..(565) (UFA)
BRACE .....(1370) (waived 12/29/12)
WILFORK (6012/325+) continued to play a huge percentage of snaps in 2012 and at a HOF-worthy level. He'll turn 32 next November and the obvious question is how many more seasons might he be able to sustain such extreme usage and still maintain this level of play consistently? A decline is inevitable at some point and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to begin to see signs of it next season or in 2014. HOWEVER, his role on the DL has been primarily as a block-eating gap-stuffer and only secondarily as a penetrator. It's entirely possible that he could continue to be effective in that primary role for a couple years beyond 2014 - IF he's paired with another guy who's a serious interior force, even if the guy isn't the greatest run-stuffer. After all, there are three pretty good, relatively big-bodied run-stuffers behind the DL now to quickly catch what the DL might allow in terms of runs between the tackles.
LOVE (6011/315) has been a pretty solid undertackle "sidekick" for Wilfork for the past two seasons - a reliable gap-controlling run-stuffer who, according to PFF, actually graded out a bit higher than Deaderick in terms of rush-pressure, though that's not saying a whole lot. I see him sticking on the roster for 2013, but I'm not sure he gets and early extension beyond that.
DEADERICK's (6037/305) run-D appeared to improve a bit in 2012, but it was still not nearly as solid as Love's. That Deaderick started getting more snaps than Love beginning in the Wk-12 embar-ass-ment of the Jets (even though he's seen by PFF as a slightly less effective penetrator than Love) might be due to his greater effectiveness shifting to 3-4DE mode and coming off an edge. But I don't see him as ever becoming a mainstay DT. It's possible he sticks for 2013, but he has some competition now for his role in the taller, DT/34DE role, and I don't see him staying with the Pats beyond the end of his rookie deal in any case.
ARMSTEAD (6042/298) was a pretty effective DL for USC as a Junior in 2010 (sat out 2011), and for Toronto in 2012, so it's not unreasonable to have some expectations for him on the 2013 Pats DL, likely targeting a similar role to Deaderick's. But nothing is proven, yet.
ROBERTSON (6035/286) played mostly on the interior for Baylor (which is why I have him here for now, rather than with the edge-rushers) providing consistent, if not inspiring, production for three seasons. He could end up anywhere from a reserve on the 53 to being merely a Camp body.
FORSTON (6012/301) had a very good Junior season in 2010 for the Hurricanes as a solid tackler who got good penetration, but got derailed by injury as a Senior. He may be a Myron Pryor type or an insurance policy for Love or just a perennial PS guy. Hard to know where he fits yet.
---------------
PRYOR hasn't played a down of football since mid-September 2011 and, with the new guys aboard, I don't see any real reason to offer him a new contract. I think he's done.
BRACE is already gone, of course.
---------------
2013 potential UNIT CAP HIT (with currently signed players above) = $13.6M (not including any additional signings)
---------------
Here's the thing for me. I don't see any among Love, Deaderick, Armstead, Robertson and Forston as being a long-term understudy/replacement for Wilfork, though a Love-Armstead tandem could relieve Wilfork of a few more snaps in 2013, if Armstead meets the higher expectations that many have for him.
So, I think there still exists the possibility that the Pats draft a big-body DT and/or sign a veteran in FA. However, with Armstead aboard, it may not now be the 1st/2nd round pick or a high-end FA that I was previously thinking it might be. In any case, a DT selected at #29 only hits the 2013 cap for around $1.3M, and, if BB trades down into the 2nd, he can probably still get a pretty good prospect at a "discount" from that. But almost any FA would hit the cap for at least $3.0M for 2013 with a contract that generates some dead money if he's cut. Below are some POTENTIAL FA adds (with their 2012 cap-hits). I'm not recommending anyone, just listing a few for some perspective:
- Glenn Dorsey (KCY) ......6'2"/316 AGE 27 ($6.4M) currently on IR (calf)
- Randy Starks (MIA) ......6'3"/312 AGE 29 ($5.0M)
- Alan Branch (SEA) .......6'6"/324 AGE 28 ($4.6M)
- Mike DeVito (NYJ) .......6'3"/298 AGE 28 ($2.5M)
- Desmond Bryant (OAK) ....6'5"/290 AGE 27 ($1.9M)
- Terrance Knighton (JAX) .6'2"/295 AGE 26 ($1.5M)
- Vance Walker (ATL) ......6'2"/295 AGE 25 ($1.3M)
- Sammie Lee Hill (DET) ...6'4"/329 AGE 26 ($1.3M)
- Justin Bannan (DEN) .....6'3"/305 AGE 33 ($1.0M)
So, the questions are:
- Do the Pats need to add more at DT in the first place?
- If so, what draft picks/FAs seems best to fill out the UNIT for 2013 and going forward?