2013 UNIT REVIEWS: DL Core

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MaineMan

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The player list format for all these posts will be:

PLAYER (2012 cap hit) (2013 cap hit) (2014 cap hit) ... etc.

The cap hit numbers are given as $k (e.g., $2.15 million is written as 2150) for easier comparison and are a combination of info published by spotrac.com, nyjetscap.com and rotoworld, all of which seem to pretty much verify each other, and are certainly close enough for the rough figuring we'll be doing here.

DL Core (interior DL "heavies")

(as of 1/28/13)
WILFORK .. (8600) (10600) (11600) (UFA)
LOVE ......... (790) ..(1000) ..(UFA)
DEADERICK ...(558) ..(648) ...(UFA)
FORSTON ...............(480) ....(570) .(RFA)
ARMSTEAD .............(405) ....(495) .(585) (RFA)
ROBERTSON ............(405) ....(495) .(ERFA)

PRYOR (IR)..(565) (UFA)
BRACE .....(1370) (waived 12/29/12)


WILFORK (6012/325+) continued to play a huge percentage of snaps in 2012 and at a HOF-worthy level. He'll turn 32 next November and the obvious question is how many more seasons might he be able to sustain such extreme usage and still maintain this level of play consistently? A decline is inevitable at some point and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to begin to see signs of it next season or in 2014. HOWEVER, his role on the DL has been primarily as a block-eating gap-stuffer and only secondarily as a penetrator. It's entirely possible that he could continue to be effective in that primary role for a couple years beyond 2014 - IF he's paired with another guy who's a serious interior force, even if the guy isn't the greatest run-stuffer. After all, there are three pretty good, relatively big-bodied run-stuffers behind the DL now to quickly catch what the DL might allow in terms of runs between the tackles.

LOVE (6011/315) has been a pretty solid undertackle "sidekick" for Wilfork for the past two seasons - a reliable gap-controlling run-stuffer who, according to PFF, actually graded out a bit higher than Deaderick in terms of rush-pressure, though that's not saying a whole lot. I see him sticking on the roster for 2013, but I'm not sure he gets and early extension beyond that.

DEADERICK's (6037/305) run-D appeared to improve a bit in 2012, but it was still not nearly as solid as Love's. That Deaderick started getting more snaps than Love beginning in the Wk-12 embar-ass-ment of the Jets (even though he's seen by PFF as a slightly less effective penetrator than Love) might be due to his greater effectiveness shifting to 3-4DE mode and coming off an edge. But I don't see him as ever becoming a mainstay DT. It's possible he sticks for 2013, but he has some competition now for his role in the taller, DT/34DE role, and I don't see him staying with the Pats beyond the end of his rookie deal in any case.

ARMSTEAD (6042/298) was a pretty effective DL for USC as a Junior in 2010 (sat out 2011), and for Toronto in 2012, so it's not unreasonable to have some expectations for him on the 2013 Pats DL, likely targeting a similar role to Deaderick's. But nothing is proven, yet.

ROBERTSON (6035/286) played mostly on the interior for Baylor (which is why I have him here for now, rather than with the edge-rushers) providing consistent, if not inspiring, production for three seasons. He could end up anywhere from a reserve on the 53 to being merely a Camp body.

FORSTON (6012/301) had a very good Junior season in 2010 for the Hurricanes as a solid tackler who got good penetration, but got derailed by injury as a Senior. He may be a Myron Pryor type or an insurance policy for Love or just a perennial PS guy. Hard to know where he fits yet.

---------------
PRYOR hasn't played a down of football since mid-September 2011 and, with the new guys aboard, I don't see any real reason to offer him a new contract. I think he's done.

BRACE is already gone, of course.
---------------

2013 potential UNIT CAP HIT (with currently signed players above) = $13.6M (not including any additional signings)
---------------

Here's the thing for me. I don't see any among Love, Deaderick, Armstead, Robertson and Forston as being a long-term understudy/replacement for Wilfork, though a Love-Armstead tandem could relieve Wilfork of a few more snaps in 2013, if Armstead meets the higher expectations that many have for him.

So, I think there still exists the possibility that the Pats draft a big-body DT and/or sign a veteran in FA. However, with Armstead aboard, it may not now be the 1st/2nd round pick or a high-end FA that I was previously thinking it might be. In any case, a DT selected at #29 only hits the 2013 cap for around $1.3M, and, if BB trades down into the 2nd, he can probably still get a pretty good prospect at a "discount" from that. But almost any FA would hit the cap for at least $3.0M for 2013 with a contract that generates some dead money if he's cut. Below are some POTENTIAL FA adds (with their 2012 cap-hits). I'm not recommending anyone, just listing a few for some perspective:

- Glenn Dorsey (KCY) ......6'2"/316 AGE 27 ($6.4M) currently on IR (calf)
- Randy Starks (MIA) ......6'3"/312 AGE 29 ($5.0M)
- Alan Branch (SEA) .......6'6"/324 AGE 28 ($4.6M)
- Mike DeVito (NYJ) .......6'3"/298 AGE 28 ($2.5M)
- Desmond Bryant (OAK) ....6'5"/290 AGE 27 ($1.9M)
- Terrance Knighton (JAX) .6'2"/295 AGE 26 ($1.5M)
- Vance Walker (ATL) ......6'2"/295 AGE 25 ($1.3M)
- Sammie Lee Hill (DET) ...6'4"/329 AGE 26 ($1.3M)
- Justin Bannan (DEN) .....6'3"/305 AGE 33 ($1.0M)

So, the questions are:
- Do the Pats need to add more at DT in the first place?
- If so, what draft picks/FAs seems best to fill out the UNIT for 2013 and going forward?
 
So, the questions are:
- Do the Pats need to add more at DT in the first place?
- If so, what draft picks/FAs seems best to fill out the UNIT for 2013 and going forward?
Click to expand...

VW and Love need some backup. Armstead projects to be a DE or a Mike Light type penetrating DT for pass rush. Brace could always be brought back; same with Pryor since BB has held on to him this long. I don't expect either back, though, so adding at least 1 DT would help but I actually expect 2 as replacements for Brace & Pryor. If BB intends to use a nascar front, Armstead and Deaderick can be the DTs. But I agree, Deaderick's performance this year is key.

I'd rather see a mid to late round developmental draftees over an expensive FA. BB does have a knack for finding bigs in teh draft if they are there. Scouts are saying there are way more good DTs in this draft than usual. BB can draft 1 in the 4-6th rnd and sign an UDFA, too.
 
chevss454 said:
I'd rather see a mid to late round developmental draftees over an expensive FA. BB does have a knack for finding bigs in teh draft if they are there. Scouts are saying there are way more good DTs in this draft than usual. BB can draft 1 in the 4-6th rnd and sign an UDFA, too.
Click to expand...
God I hope so. We need a monster DT so badly. I know he's getting old, but there isn't any chance you guys plan on parting ways with big Vince is there?
 
Jaric said:
God I hope so. We need a monster DT so badly. I know he's getting old, but there isn't any chance you guys plan on parting ways with big Vince is there?
Click to expand...

LOL. I don't know about BB, but I don't have any intention of letting the big guy go anytime soon.
 
chevss454 said:
LOL. I don't know about BB, but I don't have any intention of letting the big guy go anytime soon.
Click to expand...

If I could steal any player off your roster it would be Vince Wilfork about 5-6 years ago. For reasons on and off the field.
 
So by the way Chevss we're getting to that time of year where I pick a college player to fall in love with so I can have a rooting interest on draft day. I'm thinking this year I should go DT. (hah, this year. It's a linemen every year)

However I don't watch college football, so help me out here. Remember, we want big boys now. Actually, we're probably looking for similar players on defense now. Thats a new wrinkle.
 
MaineMan said:
The player list format for all these posts will be:

PLAYER (2012 cap hit) (2013 cap hit) (2014 cap hit) ... etc.

The cap hit numbers are given as $k (e.g., $2.15 million is written as 2150) for easier comparison and are a combination of info published by spotrac.com, nyjetscap.com and rotoworld, all of which seem to pretty much verify each other, and are certainly close enough for the rough figuring we'll be doing here.

DL Core (interior DL "heavies")

(as of 1/28/13)
WILFORK .. (8600) (10600) (11600) (UFA)
LOVE ......... (790) ..(1000) ..(UFA)
DEADERICK ...(558) ..(648) ...(UFA)
FORSTON ...............(480) ....(570) .(RFA)
ARMSTEAD .............(405) ....(495) .(585) (RFA)
ROBERTSON ............(405) ....(495) .(ERFA)

PRYOR (IR)..(565) (UFA)
BRACE .....(1370) (waived 12/29/12)


WILFORK (6012/325+) continued to play a huge percentage of snaps in 2012 and at a HOF-worthy level. He'll turn 32 next November and the obvious question is how many more seasons might he be able to sustain such extreme usage and still maintain this level of play consistently? A decline is inevitable at some point and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to begin to see signs of it next season or in 2014. HOWEVER, his role on the DL has been primarily as a block-eating gap-stuffer and only secondarily as a penetrator. It's entirely possible that he could continue to be effective in that primary role for a couple years beyond 2014 - IF he's paired with another guy who's a serious interior force, even if the guy isn't the greatest run-stuffer. After all, there are three pretty good, relatively big-bodied run-stuffers behind the DL now to quickly catch what the DL might allow in terms of runs between the tackles.

LOVE (6011/315) has been a pretty solid undertackle "sidekick" for Wilfork for the past two seasons - a reliable gap-controlling run-stuffer who, according to PFF, actually graded out a bit higher than Deaderick in terms of rush-pressure, though that's not saying a whole lot. I see him sticking on the roster for 2013, but I'm not sure he gets and early extension beyond that.

DEADERICK's (6037/305) run-D appeared to improve a bit in 2012, but it was still not nearly as solid as Love's. That Deaderick started getting more snaps than Love beginning in the Wk-12 embar-ass-ment of the Jets (even though he's seen by PFF as a slightly less effective penetrator than Love) might be due to his greater effectiveness shifting to 3-4DE mode and coming off an edge. But I don't see him as ever becoming a mainstay DT. It's possible he sticks for 2013, but he has some competition now for his role in the taller, DT/34DE role, and I don't see him staying with the Pats beyond the end of his rookie deal in any case.

ARMSTEAD (6042/298) was a pretty effective DL for USC as a Junior in 2010 (sat out 2011), and for Toronto in 2012, so it's not unreasonable to have some expectations for him on the 2013 Pats DL, likely targeting a similar role to Deaderick's. But nothing is proven, yet.

ROBERTSON (6035/286) played mostly on the interior for Baylor (which is why I have him here for now, rather than with the edge-rushers) providing consistent, if not inspiring, production for three seasons. He could end up anywhere from a reserve on the 53 to being merely a Camp body.

FORSTON (6012/301) had a very good Junior season in 2010 for the Hurricanes as a solid tackler who got good penetration, but got derailed by injury as a Senior. He may be a Myron Pryor type or an insurance policy for Love or just a perennial PS guy. Hard to know where he fits yet.

---------------
PRYOR hasn't played a down of football since mid-September 2011 and, with the new guys aboard, I don't see any real reason to offer him a new contract. I think he's done.

BRACE is already gone, of course.
---------------

2013 potential UNIT CAP HIT (with currently signed players above) = $13.6M (not including any additional signings)
---------------

Here's the thing for me. I don't see any among Love, Deaderick, Armstead, Robertson and Forston as being a long-term understudy/replacement for Wilfork, though a Love-Armstead tandem could relieve Wilfork of a few more snaps in 2013, if Armstead meets the higher expectations that many have for him.

So, I think there still exists the possibility that the Pats draft a big-body DT and/or sign a veteran in FA. However, with Armstead aboard, it may not now be the 1st/2nd round pick or a high-end FA that I was previously thinking it might be. In any case, a DT selected at #29 only hits the 2013 cap for around $1.3M, and, if BB trades down into the 2nd, he can probably still get a pretty good prospect at a "discount" from that. But almost any FA would hit the cap for at least $3.0M for 2013 with a contract that generates some dead money if he's cut. Below are some POTENTIAL FA adds (with their 2012 cap-hits). I'm not recommending anyone, just listing a few for some perspective:

- Glenn Dorsey (KCY) ......6'2"/316 AGE 27 ($6.4M) currently on IR (calf)
- Randy Starks (MIA) ......6'3"/312 AGE 29 ($5.0M)
- Alan Branch (SEA) .......6'6"/324 AGE 28 ($4.6M)
- Mike DeVito (NYJ) .......6'3"/298 AGE 28 ($2.5M)
- Desmond Bryant (OAK) ....6'5"/290 AGE 27 ($1.9M)
- Terrance Knighton (JAX) .6'2"/295 AGE 26 ($1.5M)
- Vance Walker (ATL) ......6'2"/295 AGE 25 ($1.3M)
- Sammie Lee Hill (DET) ...6'4"/329 AGE 26 ($1.3M)
- Justin Bannan (DEN) .....6'3"/305 AGE 33 ($1.0M)

So, the questions are:
- Do the Pats need to add more at DT in the first place?
- If so, what draft picks/FAs seems best to fill out the UNIT for 2013 and going forward?
Click to expand...

Thorough. Informative, forward-looking and yet understated. Outstanding post.

I'd also like to thank you for mentioning Armstead without getting giddy like most observors. He's got some potential, he could be good, but we don't know much of anything about the guy yet. It mystifies me how nuts some people get talking about him.
 
Is Bequette strickly a DE or can he play inside too? He did little this year.
 
grog said:
Is Bequette strickly a DE or can he play inside too? He did little this year.
Click to expand...
His frame looks like it would be maxed out around 270 to my eyes, guessing he's more Cunningham/Price/insert average OLB/DE hybrid backup here kind of player. He could maybe sub in a Nascar style package but the fact that he barely saw the field doesn't bode all that well to me. With his frame and length I was hoping he'd be more of an edge setter who could spell/push Jones, but when Jones went down, they subbed Ninko to that side, and brought Price/Cunningham/RutgersUDFA in instead...again, doesn't bode too well...
 
Lack of strength was one concern with Bequette during the draft process AFAIR. Maybe he'll be able to contribute with a year of NFL strength & conditioning under his belt. :shrug:
 
Jaric said:
So by the way Chevss we're getting to that time of year where I pick a college player to fall in love with so I can have a rooting interest on draft day. I'm thinking this year I should go DT. (hah, this year. It's a linemen every year)

However I don't watch college football, so help me out here. Remember, we want big boys now. Actually, we're probably looking for similar players on defense now. Thats a new wrinkle.
Click to expand...

You draft 24th iirc.

25. Shariff Floyd, DL, FLorida<hr>26. Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State (SCOUTING REPORT)
27. Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama
28. Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
29. Keenan Allen, WR, California (SCOUTING REPORT)
30. DJ Fluker, OL, Alabama (SCOUTING REPORT)
Click to expand...
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2013-nfl-draft-top-100-prospects

Pick one.
 
Jaric said:
The last time we drafted an oohi DT he decided he'd rather play call of duty than be an nfl player so that's out. However, this guy might fit the bill even though he's not a DT, we'll need an olb that's actually suited for a 3-4/4-3 hybrid and this kid sounds like he fits.

Plus his name is Ezekiel.

So it sounds like Jaric has a front runner for draft binky!
Click to expand...

Ansah will likely go top 20 so don't get your hopes up too high. Plus, he's as raw as they come and will need a year or 2 in training.

The Colts have to protect Luck. OL is mandatory. You should take either of the 2 Bama OLs, Jones or Fluker. 10-12 yrs of exceptional protection.
 
chevss454 said:
Ansah will likely go top 20 so don't get your hopes up too high. Plus, he's as raw as they come and will need a year or 2 in training.

The Colts have to protect Luck. OL is mandatory. You should take either of the 2 Bama OLs, Jones or Fluker. 10-12 yrs of exceptional protection.
Click to expand...

Agree 100% on the oline, but I'm kinda expecting to handle that via free agency but if not...

I did find the scouting report on Fluker intriguing. NFL draft countdown had us taking a guard from North Carolina. Jon Cooper I think his name was. Know much about him?
 
This is so cool! Hopefully it's accurate.

NFL salaries by team and position

The National Football League has a salary cap, an upper limit on what teams can spend on their players, of $120.6m. But where the teams choose to spend that money is entirely up to them. Some, like Tampa Bay, overload their offence, while others invest heavily in defence. These figures are based on individual 'cap hit' numbers which include base salary and bonuses for the 2012-13 season. Read more about our methodology

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/int...ion#new-england-patriots,new-england-patriots
Click to expand...
 
Hawg73 said:
Thorough. Informative, forward-looking and yet understated. Outstanding post.

I'd also like to thank you for mentioning Armstead without getting giddy like most observors. He's got some potential, he could be good, but we don't know much of anything about the guy yet. It mystifies me how nuts some people get talking about him.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

I tend not to idolize or demonize players. They're human, not gods or machines. They all have their "feet of clay". And that only becomes a problem if we idolize them in the first place since, once the clay feet that they've had all along are finally revealed, they're typically demonized. Or a personnel guy is a "genius" until he effs up, and then it's "Oh! He must've been an idiot who got lucky all along!"

Call it the manic-depressive approach to fandom. I can't live like that.
 
chevss454 said:
This is so cool! Hopefully it's accurate.
Click to expand...

There's a little note at the bottom stating that they got their data from the NFL and Spotrac (one of my sources), so they probably shouldn't be too far off from the numbers I've been posting.

Spotrac is here: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/

Spotrac also lists dead money by player (under the "Contract Terms" section) and has a year-by-year breakdown of salary/bonuses/total cap-hit for each player.
 
More on Armstead & how he fits in the 3 man and 4 man fronts by Erik Frenz.

Argonauts general manager Jim Barker told ESPN Boston, "[Armstead] played on the edge some in the 30 front [3-4] but not much. It wasn’t that he couldn’t do it, it’s that we didn’t play a lot of 30 front. He was moved around inside and was mainly an inside player for us."
That should be good news for the Patriots, who have struggled to create interior pressure for years. The role that was once filled by defensive tackle Mike Wright as the team's interior presence in sub packages has been a revolving door since his career was cut short by concussion issues.

  • In 2010 (Wright's last year, with just 320 defensive snaps), the Patriots leaned on 543 snaps from defensive tackle Gerard Warren, along with a rotation of Ron Brace (285 snaps), Brandon Deaderick (258) and Myron Pryor (242).
  • In 2011, Vince Wilfork played 1,173 snaps and Kyle Love played 696 snaps. Shaun Ellis was largely ineffective in 421 snaps, and Deaderick saw his snap total rise to 383. Gerard Warren (371) continued to contribute, as well. Albert Haynesworth (134) was released after eight games.
  • In 2012, Wilfork (1,041) and Love (591) once again carried a significant load. The Patriots utilized defensive end Jermaine Cunningham (487) as an interior pass-rusher in some nickel packages. Deaderick (467) once again saw his snap total increase. Defensive ends Justin Francis (301) and Trevor Scott (289) were the only other defensive linemen to carry a significant workload in 2012.
As we can see, over the years, the Patriots' options on the interior defensive line have been dwindling.
The Patriots filled their need for an edge rusher in drafting Chandler Jones with their first-round pick last year, but the question now becomes whether they will continue to run the 4-3 alignment we saw in 2012 or if they will eventually shift back to the 3-4.
patriotsdefensivealignment_original.png

Scheme is dictated by personnel, so it's not difficult to imagine that happening, especially if Armstead turns out to be a gem. It would also allow for Rob Ninkovich to return to his more suitable role as a 3-4 outside linebacker.Wilfork is versatile enough to not only play both schemes, but to play multiple positions within those schemes. He was moved around in the 3-4 front quite a bit in both 2010 and 2011.
By now, however, we should know that the Patriots will never be solely in either front; they want players to be versatile enough to switch between the fronts. Trying to pin them down as either a 3-4 or 4-3 defense is an exercise in futility.
Since he has less experience in the 3-4, though, expect to see him earn the bulk of his workload as an interior linemen in four-man fronts, at least in the early going.
For now, Belichick is probably just happy to have an athletic defensive lineman to add to the Patriots' defensive arsenal.
Click to expand...
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-new-england-patriots-utilize-armond-armstead
 
I'll be keeping an eye on David Bass as the draft gets closer.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/XJtozzcJTNs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
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