Okay, so here's what I'm puzzling in my little Flagg-head.
Can we assume that barring something pretty catastrophic Mac is the future QB of this team, and that Bill, Josh, etc. know this and are planning around it? I mean, I suppose if Cam suddenly starts getting the ball out right at the end of his drops, if his accuracy suddenly blossoms into command/precision, that sort of thing, it's a totally different conversation. But even in that case we'd still be looking at Mac as QB1 no later than 2022 - because Cam would suddenly be cost prohibitive after a year like that.
Can we also agree that while there's room for some disagreement around the margins, the two QBs seem to be playing more or less comparably thus far?
If both those things are true, what are you gaining (strictly in terms of the 2021 team) by playing Cam? If he's on a short leash, aren't you just counting on him failing and waiting for that to happen? Aren't you essentially assuring yourself of a split locker room, as any given performance will be evaluated by how close to The Cammac Line Cam's performance that day was? Going this route you're assuming either 1) that Cam gives you the best chance to win all year, OR 2) that he will fail at some point to a degree which provides you cover for making the switch to where you want to be, with Mac Jones taking over as QB1.
If you're assuming #2, isn't it better to avoid the split locker room, and the weekly drama of The Cammac Line analysis and start Mac from Week 1? Because you're assuming that you're going to be taking your lumps either way with #2, right? Once the season starts, there's no good way to get Mac good reps or get him in better sync with the starters - you'll need all that practice time for Cam if he's going to be successful. So wouldn't you be better off committing to him as early as possible?
So the only reason I can see that Bill would want Cam to start is because he's assuming #1 above - that Cam gives the Patriots the best chance to win all year. The only alternative I see is that he's willing to just take whatever comes this year as gravy, and he's trying to maximize Mac's effectiveness starting NEXT year. And while I appreciate that Bill plays the long game, I can't reconcile him doing anything that gives him a reduced chance to win any game - and certainly not taking that attitude towards a whole season - with what we know of his personality and outlook.
Maybe...maybe he's just waiting for Cam to get dinged up enough to provide him with the cover he needs to make the switch? Not hoping, but well aware of the likelihood that Cam's style of play will inevitably result in him needing to sit and recover, and that will be Mac's launch point? With the obvious benefit that if Mac is balling he keeps the job, but if he's struggling or needs a little more time Cam coming back provides that cover without damaging Mac's psyche.
I don't know. It's a tricky position to be in, especially given Cam's apparent status/standing in the locker room - there was even discussion that Cam being here influenced some of the FAs we were able to land in the offseason. I just think that the "Cam on a short leash" plan is assuming failure that "allows" for the change to Mac, which seems odd and essentially takes valuable reps away from Mac, potentially damaging both QBs.
