He has to be better than Mac…right?
On short passes, long passes and against pressure for sure. On intermediate passes I'm not so sure Drake is there yet.
Right off the top, Maye’s 69.4% overall adjusted accuracy figure isn’t exciting. It’s slightly better than Will Levis and Anthony Richardson a year ago, marginally worse than Caleb Williams and JJ McCarthy this year. Should be better. Could be worse.
The numbers do anything but tell the whole story though because the more you dig into the film, the more bizarre his profile gets.
One of Maye’s two best areas of the field is the 1-5 range. That’s where you’re getting a lot of quick game concepts, checkdowns and hot throws versus the blitz. Maye crushes it here.
Maye is an efficient quick game operator under “normal” conditions and absolutely sensational when tasked with beating blitzes. There’s a blend of foresight and fearlessness to Maye’s game that makes it easy for him to handle all of that. Maye often beats “pressure” before it actually arrives.
As good as he is short, he’s even better down the field. Maye threw 17.5% of his passes beyond 20 yards and delivered a stellar 57.1% success rate. For reference, one of CJ Stroud’s main selling points last year was his deep accuracy and Stroud finished at 58.0% so Maye is right there with him.
Maye’s 51.0% success rate on nine routes does some heavy lifting there but it’s the post route success rate that really does it for me. While 64.7% success rate on post routes doesn’t actually push Maye into the green, it’s a remarkable number given nearly 10% of Maye’s throws were on those routes. To have that kind of volume and still crush it on those routes speaks to his arm talent.
But despite the big arm and the fact that he can make every single throw on the field, the truth is that Maye has shown inconsistency in making those throws.
Maye’s 54.1% success rate between 11-20 yards is simply not very good. In fact, two of the three intermediate zones of Maye’s heat map are red, meaning he’s a below average thrower to the areas of the field where most
good pro offenses thrive.
Some of that can be attributed to North Carolina’s simple offensive design and/or his receivers not getting open but it’s also Maye’s footwork. Maye’s initial drop back is clean, which is why his quick game operation is fine but he often gets out of sorts when working deeper into the progression, especially when he’s working to his right and aligns himself too narrow to his targets.
That’s fixable with the right coaching but an irritating wart to walk into the league with.
Some of that inconsistency vs high-end play bleeds into the rest of Maye’s profile as well. Maye’s open vs tight window stats are kind of hard to square.
Maye was only successful on 79.8% of his open-window throws. That’s not disaster territory like Levis and Richardson last year but it’s not good either. Again, footwork is the primary culprit.
But then the Tar Heel turns around and can absolutely stick it when throwing into tight windows. He posted a 46.0% success rate on tight-windows throws while also having to make those throws 31.0% of the time. Kind of like Maye’s deep ball ability, it’s absurd Maye could be that efficient in such a high-difficulty split with that kind of volume.
It’s easy to understand why Maye won’t be for everyone. The inconsistency is maddening. We know he can make every throw but clunky footwork and a weaker supporting cast in 2023 than in 2022 make watching Maye a roller coaster at times.
But at the end of the day what makes him so appealing is that all of the high-end traits are there. Maye brings the frame and all the tools you find in elite quarterbacks. He has the same pocket toughness and unabashed confidence in his arm that those players have as well. You see the flashes of greatness in Maye’s ability to beat the blitz or heave it down the field or spin the ball into tight windows.
Maybe it’s reductive to say drafting quarterbacks right now is all about keeping up in the arms race against Mahomes, but it’s true. The reality of the NFL is you need a quarterback who can keep up with
that guy and there are only a handful of signal callers who are even in the same ballpark. Maye has the potential to be in that group.
Drake Maye 2024 NFL Draft Profile| Reception Perception | Derrik Klassen
receptionperception.com
Bill Belichick, breaking down film of Drake Maye on
@PatMcAfeeShow
: "His footwork needs a lot of work. ... Too much hopping around. Step up and throw. A very talented kid. Good size, runs well, has a good arm,” Belichick said. “Just he hasn’t played very much. He really doesn’t have a lot of experience. He makes some big plays... He’s gonna need some work in reading defenses, reading coverages."
Maye discussion begins at 16:57