2019 Draft - WR Prospects The Patriots Way

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Hawg73 said:
I get the argument that SB winning teams haven't had a ton of blue-chip draft choice WRs.

However, I can't wrap my brain around the notion that a guy like that, assuming he can do the required Vulcan mind-meld with Brady, couldn't make our offense be significantly better.

The second we lose Edelman this offense is toast the way it's presently constructed. James White isn't going to be able to sneak out on a LB and Sony isn't going to get an extra yard per carry because defenses won't bother doubling anybody and will be looking for him.

Seriously, who is going to need to be doubled with no Gronk and a hypothetical lack of Julian?

So maybe we don't get a Julio or an Antonio, but maybe it's not so unthinkable that Bill would love to have a big-ass Hakeem outside the hashes to make life more manageable for everybody else.

Just because we've never drafted a guy with his size profile doesn't mean Bill wouldn't do it this year if he sees something in a guy. The man has no absolute rules when it comes to the draft, except he'll try to help the team as much as possible with every move he makes.
Click to expand...

Hakeem’s been my fav since the second I watched him. I’d LOVE a trade up, if need be. We’re excellent at RB. Solid at TE. Not good at WR. Fix it.
 
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Hakeem Butler, Iowa State (721)

Hakeem Butler is so much more than a big-bodied possession receiver. The 6-foot-5, 227-pound Iowa State product can stretch the field, as evidenced by his FBS-high 721 deep receiving yards in 2018. He caught 19-of-37 targets, including eight contested catches, of 20-plus yards for 721 yards and four touchdowns in 2018.


Andy Isabella, Massachusetts (705)

Few draft analysts are as high as we at PFF are on former Massachusetts wide receiver Andy Isabella. A former Ohio high school track star turned UMass wideout, Isabella gets behind defenses in a flash with his blazing straight-line speed. He caught 14-of-32 targets of 20-plus yards for 705 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago, ranking second in deep receiving yards and tied for first in deep touchdowns among draft-eligible wideouts.

Jamal Custis, Syracuse (614)

Flying a bit under the radar in this class, Syracuse’s Jamal Custis ranked third in the 2019 draft class in deep receiving yards with 614 a year ago. He doesn’t have blazing speed but still found ways to get open deep down the field.

Preston Williams, Colorado State (605)

A tall, athletic receiver with a bit of a discouraging history, Preston Williams has much more to prove off the field than he does on the field. He turned in an outstanding 2018 season with Colorado State and was quite the force in the deep area of the field, catching 17-of-42 deep targets for 605 yards and six touchdowns.


Marquise Brown, Oklahoma (592)

What Marquise Brown lacks in size he makes up for in speed and quickness. The former Oklahoma phenom not only ranked fifth in deep receiving yards (592) in 2018, but he also ranked 10th in the class in 2017.
 
Doug Kyed picks his WRs for the Pats in every round.


I have 3 objections:
First round pick: Hakeem Butler with AJ Brown as the alternate choice.
Third round pick: Miles Boykin w/ Hardman as alternate.
Fourth round pick: Stanley Morgan Jr. w/ JJAW as alternate
The only player he picked that I don't like for the Pats is David Sills. NFL
CBs will have no trouble covering him.
His 6th rnd pick, Jalen Hurd > David Sills for the Pats. Sills isn't on my board for the Pats.

FIRST ROUND
Picks: No. 32
A.J. Brown, Mississippi
At 6-foot, 226 pounds, Brown has the frame of a running back but the speed, quickness and agility of a slot receiver. He did the majority of his work out of the slot in 2018 but also showed the versatility to line up outside. Given his size and athleticism, we believe he could play the X, Z and slot positions in the Patriots’ offense.
He ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash with a 7-second three-cone. That’s impressive since he’s the fifth-heaviest receiver in the 2019 draft class.
Alternate choice: Parris Campbell, Ohio State
Campbell is more of a slot playmaker than a refined receiver.
SECOND ROUND
Picks: Nos. 56, 64
Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
Samuel is another slot receiver with the build of a running back. He’s 5-foot-11, 214 pounds and ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash, 7.03-second three-cone drill and 4.14-second short shuttle. He returned 42 kicks in college and brought back four of them for touchdowns.
Alternate choice: Andy Isabella, UMass
Isabella can play inside or outside and ran a 4.27-second hand-timed 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine.
THIRD ROUND
Picks: Nos. 73, 97, 101
Mecole Hardman, Georgia
Hardman has similar physical traits to Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett with more positional versatility. He did the majority of his work out of the slot in 2019. He ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash with a 6.75-second three-cone at 5-foot-10, 183 pounds. He also returned punts and kicks.
Alternate choice: Miles Boykin, Notre Dame
At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Boykin ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash with a 1.54-second 10-yard split, 43.5-inch vertical leap, 11-foot, 8-inch broad jump, 6.77-second three-cone and 4.07-second short shuttle.
FOURTH ROUND
Picks: No. 134
David Sills, West Virginia
Sills isn’t quite as good of an athlete as many of these players, but his smarts make up for it. He’s a former quarterback who might be top in his class at reading a defense. At 6-foot-3, 211 pounds, he ran a 6.97-second three-cone with a 4.28-second short shuttle and 37.5-inch vertical leap.
Alternate choice: Terry McLaurin, Ohio State
Athletically, McLaurin is nearly a perfect fit for the Patriots.
FIFTH ROUND
Picks: None
Hunter Renfrow, Clemson
Folks have been projecting Renfrow to the Patriots since he arrived at Clemson. He’s not a speed demon, but his 6.80-second three-cone drill is a fit for the Patriots.
Alternate choice: Jalen Guyton, North Texas
Guyton would be a project as a perimeter receiver worth the investment for his athleticism.
SIXTH ROUND
Picks: No. 205
Jalen Hurd, Baylor
The Patriots brought in Hurd for a pre-draft visit. He played running back and wide receiver in college at 6-foot-5, 228 pounds. He ran an impressive 4.15-second short shuttle.
Alternate choice: Jon’Vea Johnson, Toledo
On 18 deep targets, Johnson caught 10 passes for 380 yards with seven (!) touchdowns.
SEVENTH ROUND
Picks: Nos. 243, 246, 252
Dillon Mitchell, Oregon
Oregon quarterbacks had a 112 passer rating targeting Mitchell out of the slot and 124.7 targeting Mitchell on deep passes. At 6-foot-1, 197 pounds, Mitchell ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash with a 6.93-second three-cone and 4.29-second short shuttle.
Alternate choice: DeAndre Thompkins, Penn State
Another good athlete, Thompkins ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11, 192 pounds.

https://nesn.com/2019/04/picking-a-w...019-nfl-draft/
 
From the OP and today I'm adding Minimum athletic requirements in Blue

Round means "Round the Pats might draft him".
Red = Those eliminated based on min. athletic requirements.


Later on things may change as we hear about injuries, character concerns, interviews, smarts, etc. My ranking will not necessarily agree with the general rankings bc I'm drafting specifically for the Patriots. Minimum athletic requirements will probably knock some of these out when Pro Days are finished. This isn't a finished list.

1. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State, 6'5", 227. 4.48 40, 3c NA, VJ 36".
He's a primary weapon no matter where he's lined up. He's as close to
Calvin Johnson as we've seen and he's being trained by Calvin Johnson.
Butler is best WR1 in this draft imo.

Butler meets or exceeds 4/5 athletic requirements & he didn't do a 3c.
Round 2. comp = Calvin Johnson with some Plaxico Burress mixed in

2. Miles Boykin, NDame, 6'4", 220. 4.42 40, 6.77 3 cone, VJ 43.5".
Boykin was the wonder of the combine & he has the talent and athleticism to be a great WR1 at flanker or X. Under rated on most rankings.
meets or exceeds 5/5 athletic requirements
Round 2-3. comp = a mix of Terrell Owens and Josh Gordon.

3. AJ Brown, Miss., 6', 226. 4.49 40, VJ 36.5".
Brown is a thick, durable, strong player known for his slot work but he can do just as much damage at
flanker or even outside. Brown may be the safest WR in this draft. WR1 at slot or flanker.
meets or exceeds 5/5 athletic requirements
Rounds 1-2. Comp = Anquan Boldin on speed

4. DK Metcalf, Miss, 6'3", 228. 4.33 40, 7.38 3c, 40.5 VJ.
Metcalf wins on go routes and jump balls and that's good enough for a lot of teams. He drops for the Pats bc
he is far from a complete WR even though he's a beast as a deep threat and in the RZ.
meets or exceeds 3/5 athletic requirements, missing on 3c and ss.
Round 1 but fails to meet athletic requirements of the Pats. comp = Vincent Jackson

6. Deebo Samuel, S.Carolina, 5'11", 214. 4.48 40, 6.83 3c, VJ NA.
Samuel will kill opponents with a quick strike or 1000 paper cuts. ++ quicks and he's gone.
All 3 WR positions and RB. Name it and he'll win wherever he's put.
meets or exceeds 5/5 athletic requirements
Round 2. comp = Jimmy Smith https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Smith_(wide_receiver)


7. N'Keal Harry, Az St., 6'2", 228. 4.53 40, 3c NA, 38.5 VJ.Harry is a big, strong (27 BP) slot WR who may earn X duties bc of his
toughness and high pointing skill. Right now he's a big slot guy with a
potential for outside fades and RZ catches. WR2 upside.
meets or exceeds 4/5 athletic requirements
Round 2. comp = Dez Bryant

8. Stanley Morgan, Jr., Nebraska, 6', 202. 4.53 40, 6.78 3c, VJ NA.
Morgan is a physical, quick and sure-handed flanker or slot guy who has ++ possession skill.
He reminds me a little of Malcolm Mitchell on the field with a little more physicality than MM.
I'm surprised to rank him this high but he's another one I could see as a Patriot. Slot or Flanker possession guy.
meets or exceeds 5/5 athletic requirements
Round 3-4 (consensus is round 4-5 so he'd be a real value there). comp = Roddy White

9. Parris Campbell, OSU, 6', 205. 4.31 40, 3c NA, 40" VJ.
Explosive, big play slot guy who is a threat on the field. He needs refinements in his game but his
fundamentals are solid. He should develop quickly to be a star focal point if he wants to be.
Lots to work with here.
meets or exceeds 5/5 athletic requirements
Round 2. comp = Wes Chandler https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Chandler

10. Kelvin Harmon, NC St., 6'2", 221. 4.6 40, 7.15 3c, 32.5" VJ.
Harmon's lack of athleticism will eventually drop him from Patriots' consideration. He's a physical possession guy from the flanker position who lacks speed for the X position. He'd benefit by being on a run first team with a surprise pass thrown in.
meets or exceeds 2/5 athletic requirements, missing on 3c, VJ and 40
Fails to meet athletic requirements so he's an UDFA for the Pats comp = Allen Robinson with some Mohamed Sanu

10. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, 6'2", 225. 4.49 40, NA 3c, 34" VJ, 9'10" BJ.
As a skilled box out specialist, JAW is a skilled possession receiver and RZ specialist who has the ability to be more with work. He has good speed and runs good routes but he'll drop a few too many passes by catching with his palms. As I watch JAW I'm reminded of a power forward who backs into his defender to post him up to make the catch. He'll make the highlight reel 1 handed catch on fade routes. I've seen comparisons to Mike Evans and even to Larry Fitzgerald but JAW has lots of work to get to those heights. Some have him going in the 1st round but many more have him as a 2nd or 3rd round guy. I have him as a 3rd round pick for the Pats but his lack of ideal quickness may drop him off the Pats' board.
meets or exceeds 3/5 athletic requirements but didn't perform 3c or SS at his Pro Day. Benefit of the doubt.
Round 4. comp = Muhsin Muhammad

11. Jalen Hurd, Baylor, 6'5", 226. Knee scope prevented Combine and Pro Day Drills. 5 star recruit. Very good athlete on tape.
Hurd was a UTenn RB (1,285 yards on 4.6 ypc in 2015) who transferred to Baylor for a change to WR. As such he started from scratch learning a new position but did quite well in his 1 season as a WR/RB combination - 69 passes for 946 yards and four touchdowns. Hurd also rushed 48 times last year for 209 yards and three scores. That's versatility and BB likes that. IF his knee checks and IF BB is willing to wait a year, Hurd has outstanding physical traits, I've heard a great work ethic and the drive to get much better very quickly. Imo, his best days are in front of him. Big slot now and eventual X with WR1 upside. He's a 4th round value pick in my mind. Think Terrelle Pryor with RB skills.
Unknown athleticism due to knee scope but he should meet 4/5. Benefit of the doubt.
Round 4. comp = Kenny Golladay

12. Riley Ridley, GA, 6'2", 200. 4.58 40, 7.22 3c, 4.28 ss, 30.5" VJ, 124" BJ.
Riley doesn't have Calvin's speed or explosion but he's a tough, physical possession guy who has had good training in the WR position. He runs good routes but often rounds his breaks which allows the CB to undercut him for the int. Everything about him is pretty average but his understanding of the position gives him a high floor but with all that training, he's still average and that drops his ceiling. He's not fast enough to play X & he's not quick enough to play slot, therefore he's a flanker. I doubt he's on BB's board but you never know.
meets or exceeds 3/5 athletic requirements
UDFA for the Pats.


Slot WRs Board.

1. Butler, 2. Brown, 3. Samuel, 4. Harry, 5. Morgan, 6. Campbell in that order from above for my Slot WR rankings.

In addition...

Slot &/or STs Return Guys

7. Hunter Renfrow, Clemson, 5'10", 184. 4.59 40, 6.8 3c, 35 VJ.
Renfrow is a refined slot route runner with great production and good hands. He's quick and his long speed is good enough. His experience in the slot earns him a high draft pick, probably out of BB's reach but if he falls he'd be a good pick imo.
meets or exceeds 4/5 athletic requirements
Round 5. comp = DAmendola

8. Andy Isabella, UMass, 5'9", 188. 4.31 40, 6.95 3c, 36.5 VJ.
Super fast and quick enough, Isabella is much loved here on the Planet. He's a player but he'll have to move from outside to slot which is a concern for me. Like Renfrow, he'll likely be picked before he comes up on BB's board.
meets or exceeds 5/5 athletic requirements.
Round 3-4. He should go higher. comp = Wes Welker with speed. Philip Dorsett with quicks.

9. Marquise Brown, OK, 5'9", 166, LisFranc fracture derailed his Combine and ProDay.
Another with blazing speed & super productive with BMayfield and KMurray as his QBs but he's small and comes with injury concerns. Some team will take a chance on him fairly high in the 1st rnd but for most he'll fall bc of his size & injury. If he turns into a Santonio Holmes or DeSean Jackson kind of player, the team that drafts him high will be happy. The Giants, Steelers and Chiefs have been linked to Hollywood Brown.
Unable to perform due to injury.
Round 1 for the NFL but UDFA for the Pats despite his terrifying speed (unless BB drastically changes his WR prototype.)
comp = Gary Clark https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Clark
 
Nice write up Chevs. I will read the rest later but I stopped when I read Anquon Boldin on speed. A.J. Brown is my pick.
 
Which WRs played in pro style offense? As mentioned by Mike R.
 
sg14 said:
Which WRs played in pro style offense? As mentioned by Mike R.
Click to expand...


None, really. AJ Brown comes the closest but his tree was limited by his QB.
Any rookie BB brings in will have a lot to learn but as Malcolm Mitchell showed, it can be done. IQ and football IQ are all important.

Wonderlic scores aren't out on this draft class yet unfortunately. The test scores are being kept secret it seems.

Here is the website database for past scores.
https://footballiqscore.com/wonderlic-score-database

10 = illiterate
20 = avg
But even that is taken with a grain of salt. Moss scored a 14, for example.
I remember clearly Caserio saying that Cordarrelle Patterson wasn't on the Pats board bc of his 11 back in 2013.
 
chevss454 said:
None, really. AJ Brown comes the closest but his tree was limited by his QB.
Any rookie BB brings in will have a lot to learn but as Malcolm Mitchell showed, it can be done. IQ and football IQ are all important.

Wonderlic scores aren't out on this draft class yet unfortunately. The test scores are being kept secret it seems.

Here is the website database for past scores.
https://footballiqscore.com/wonderlic-score-database

10 = illiterate
20 = avg
But even that is taken with a grain of salt. Moss scored a 14, for example.
I remember clearly Caserio saying that Cordarrelle Patterson wasn't on the Pats board bc of his 11 back in 2013.
Click to expand...

Thought Georgia and Stanford were considered a pro style?

Read Vanderbilt and Virginia were pro style and both have low round or UDFA WRs, maybe Dortch? from Vandy, and the unpronouceable name from Va who reminded me of Branch but he is tiny.
 
chevss454 said:
None, really. AJ Brown comes the closest but his tree was limited by his QB.
Any rookie BB brings in will have a lot to learn but as Malcolm Mitchell showed, it can be done. IQ and football IQ are all important.

Wonderlic scores aren't out on this draft class yet unfortunately. The test scores are being kept secret it seems.

Here is the website database for past scores.
https://footballiqscore.com/wonderlic-score-database

10 = illiterate
20 = avg
But even that is taken with a grain of salt. Moss scored a 14, for example.
I remember clearly Caserio saying that Cordarrelle Patterson wasn't on the Pats board bc of his 11 back in 2013.
Click to expand...

Some people are terrible test takers. Anxiety, ADD/ADHD, maybe you have to go the bathroom...and you're freaking out...not able to concentrate on the whole thing. Not enough coffee and you're tired. Etc. It's not 100% legit. Several factors to consider.
 
chevss454 said:
None, really. AJ Brown comes the closest but his tree was limited by his QB.
Any rookie BB brings in will have a lot to learn but as Malcolm Mitchell showed, it can be done. IQ and football IQ are all important.

Wonderlic scores aren't out on this draft class yet unfortunately. The test scores are being kept secret it seems.

Here is the website database for past scores.
https://footballiqscore.com/wonderlic-score-database

10 = illiterate
20 = avg
But even that is taken with a grain of salt. Moss scored a 14, for example.
I remember clearly Caserio saying that Cordarrelle Patterson wasn't on the Pats board bc of his 11 back in 2013.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I never heard that one, but it might not be a coincidence that Cordarelle, as helpful as he was to us, never really ran much of a route tree even though he's had 6 years to develop one.

Dude has plenty of heart, but it could be that he just isn't great at processing a ton of instruction and options.

Personally, I prefer guys that did reasonably well on the Wonderlic.

It's just a part of the puzzle, but I think it might be more relevant here than it would be on most teams.
 
I like higher wonderlic test scores too but then realize people like moss took the test and mot likely saw it as a hindrance, blowing it off, but you know which ones are good or bad during the interview.
 
chevss454 said:
Evan Lazar with a terrific write up on Andy Isabella


https://www.clnsmedia.com/exclusive-andy-isabella-isnt-typical-slot-receiver/
Click to expand...

Lazar is pretty good and I read all his Pats mock stuff and agreed with a number of them.

One guy he also likes for the Pats that plays the position we're discussing is Ohio State's Terry McLaurin. I get that he's not a top-tier prospect and I don't want him to be anything more than the 2nd WR we draft, but Matthew Slater isn't going to last forever and we could use a fast guy to groom as a gunner while he's working his way into the rotation as a WR.

Two-time captain and Urban Meyer says he's one of the hardest workers he's ever coached. I think he checks some boxes.
 
Hawg73 said:
Lazar is pretty good and I read all his Pats mock stuff and agreed with a number of them.

One guy he also likes for the Pats that plays the position we're discussing is Ohio State's Terry McLaurin. I get that he's not a top-tier prospect and I don't want him to be anything more than the 2nd WR we draft, but Matthew Slater isn't going to last forever and we could use a fast guy to groom as a gunner while he's working his way into the rotation as a WR.

Two-time captain and Urban Meyer says he's one of the hardest workers he's ever coached. I think he checks some boxes.
Click to expand...


I loved McLaurin for the Pats early on in my work but his 40 dropped him out for me. He's a 5th rnder to me.
 
chevss454 said:
I loved McLaurin for the Pats early on in my work but his 40 dropped him out for me. He's a 5th rnder to me.
Click to expand...

His 40? Was he too fast for you?

He ran a 4.35 in the combine.

There are some pretty interesting analytics out there on McClaurin:


He caught 71 percent of his targets, ninth-best in the class. He averaged 14.3 yards per target, No. 1 in the class. He caught 11 touchdowns, tied for sixth-most. It helped to play in an elite Ohio State offense quarterbacked by Dwayne Haskins, but there’s no statistical indicator that McLaurin’s anything other than a star.

But he’s not going to be a Day 1 or maybe even Day 2 pick. While McLaurin drew positive reviews out of the Senior Bowl in January, he’s lagged behind a bunch of his peers in draft hype. NFL.com’s scouting report says he has backup or special teams potential.

Maybe that’ll go up some after McLaurin ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine (fifth among receivers), repped 18 times on the bench (tied for 10th), and broad-jumped 125 inches (tied for ninth). At 6’, his measureables and athletic testing are closely aligned with some good players (like Pierre Garcon) and some bad (like Breshad Perriman). But he’s certainly one of the most athletic players in the class.

I figure that you add the speed, the ST potential and the captain/hard worker then he might be worth a 5th, if we had one.
 
chevss454 said:
I loved McLaurin for the Pats early on in my work but his 40 dropped him out for me. He's a 5th rnder to me.
Click to expand...

Hawg73 said:
His 40? Was he too fast for you?

He ran a 4.35 in the combine.

There are some pretty interesting analytics out there on McClaurin:


He caught 71 percent of his targets, ninth-best in the class. He averaged 14.3 yards per target, No. 1 in the class. He caught 11 touchdowns, tied for sixth-most. It helped to play in an elite Ohio State offense quarterbacked by Dwayne Haskins, but there’s no statistical indicator that McLaurin’s anything other than a star.

But he’s not going to be a Day 1 or maybe even Day 2 pick. While McLaurin drew positive reviews out of the Senior Bowl in January, he’s lagged behind a bunch of his peers in draft hype. NFL.com’s scouting report says he has backup or special teams potential.

Maybe that’ll go up some after McLaurin ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine (fifth among receivers), repped 18 times on the bench (tied for 10th), and broad-jumped 125 inches (tied for ninth). At 6’, his measureables and athletic testing are closely aligned with some good players (like Pierre Garcon) and some bad (like Breshad Perriman). But he’s certainly one of the most athletic players in the class.

I figure that you add the speed, the ST potential and the captain/hard worker then he might be worth a 5th, if we had one.
Click to expand...


Yeah, my bad. Thanks for the call out. I should've checked my notes. Athleticism isn't his problem. In his audition he ran much faster than he does in games so in my head he's slow. Back to the notes:

McLaurin dropped for me (for the Pats) because of his poor ball skills: lack of radius, failing to extend, below average tracking ability, body catching and poor contested catch ability. He does run good routes except for his release at the LOS. He tends to favor too many quick steps (foot fire) in an attempt to fake his opponent when a quick arm swipe would set him free instantly. That can be coached. He's also a poor blocker. His best asset for the Patriots is as a gunner on STs. He's often the 1st man down the field and that trait alone may draw BB's attention. Like Slater, McLaurin is a high character guy with no concerns known about plus he graduated early.

When there’s a difference beween performance in a controlled environment versus his game performance under live fire, I’m picking the game. McLaurin may reach the point of development that his game performance matches his track performance but until then, it’s potential versus reality. I consider him a depth or complimentary WR with a chance to make the Pats on STs a la Slater. Late mid round pick.
 
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