O_P_T
Why Be Normal
Interesting article at Pats Pulpit
Discuss.
Editor's note: I thought this was extremely interesting for a discussion. Love to hear thoughts on this, especially the financial component of 3-4 vs 4-3 defensive linemen.
A quick disclaimer – the Patriots run a hybrid defense that incorporates elements of the 3-4 and 4-3, and we’ll see a mixture of both in 2016, as we do every year.
A comment chain on Rich Hill’s article got me thinking about the way that some of the moves the team has made this (and last) offseason seem to reflect the expansion of 3-4 concepts in the Patriots’ defense.
With respect to the defensive line, banditpats’ initial comment was essentially that Dominique Easley-Terrance Knighton-Malcom Brown looks a lot like Ty Warren-Vince Wilfork- Richard Seymour. I would add that while Brown (who played every position on the line in college) and especially Easley might be slightly undersized for a traditional 3-4 DE, Alan Branch has the size to play any one of those spots too. And while scheme fit was certainly not the biggest reason Chandler Jones was traded, he was arguably the front-seven player who most naturally fit the 4-3.
On the edge, Jabaal Sheard has 3-4 OLB experience from his time in Cleveland, Shea McClellin spent time there in Chicago, and we’ve certainly seen Rob Ninkovich succeed in New England when asked to play off the ball. Chris Long has spent most of his NFL snaps aligned at 4-3 DE but coming out of college his versatility to play end and linebacker was part of what made him highly touted.
But modern defenses spend two-thirds of their snaps in the nickel; if a front-seven player is coming off the field isn’t the alignment a moot point? Patrick Chung received an extension/raise last week after the team re-affirmed their commitment to his role going forward. If you lump him in with the linebackers as the big-nickel player on passing downs, bringing Harmon (quietly excellent) in as the second traditional safety, he can be that 4th linebacker sacrificing very little against the run without exposing the pass defense.
There’s also the financial component of collecting 3-4-centric set of players.
Knighton’s $4.5 million contract in Washington last year tied him for second highest paid 3-4 DT, and a year later he’s taking a one-year deal for a couple million dollars. Nose tackles, even top-notch ones, don’t make near as much money as their 4-3 counterparts (look what the Dolphins paid for Ndamukong Suh, for example).
On the edge, Sheard, Nink, McClellin, and Long have a collective 2016 cap hit of ~$16 million with practically zero long-term risk. Chandler Jones, as a 4-3 DE, will cost more than that all by himself this time next year with huge (~50%) guarantees (See: Vernon, Olivier). Throw in that both Brown and Easley have barely started their rookie contracts and that Alan Branch out-played his own modest contract last year and you’ve got an entire front seven (including strong rotational potential and depth) to surround scheme-proof stars Collins and Hightower for about $25 million, or a mere 1/8th of the total salary cap.
Breaking news – Bill Belichick exploits market inefficiencies, more at 11pm.
Of course, we know that Bill really just values versatility. Highlighting the fit of these players in the 3-4 without mentioning that they all have experience and success in 4-3 alignments would be disingenuous. He also likes finding a good deal and there are non-scheme reasons many of these players were had cheaply.
And finally, the difference especially in New England between the 3-4 and the 4-3 is, again, largely semantics. But the offseason moves of the last year or so support the notion that whether by schematic design, financial efficiency, or simple happenstance Belichick appears to be expanding the 3-4 component of the defense.
Now watch him draft three 4-3 DEs in May.
Discuss.