Bill Polian's QB rankings for 2021 as stated on Late Hits last night.
This was a terrific segment with loads of info. Yeah, yeah...Polian. But he's very different on the radio than he was as the Colts' GM.
If you want to listen here's the link:
Sirius XM NFL Radio
He bases his Elite list on
-QBR (which he says is an accepted metric within the NFL. Elite QBR = > 100)
-Comp% (65% min),
-Yds/game (250+ consistently),
-TDs (30 min),
-TD/Int ratio (3-1 or better).
1. ARod - Far and away the best QB in the league. No one is close.
2. Deshaun Watson
3. Mahomes - Accuracy isn't where it needs to be.
4.
Josh Allen - Rising but with limited sample size. Elite for now.
5. Russell Wilson - Accuracy and sacks dropped Wilson
6. Tom Brady - He dropped Brady because Brady's QBR has trended down since 2017 despite last year's bump winning the SB last year. Polian thinks Brady needs vg to elite weapons at this stage of his career to win consistently. The numbers back up Polian.
stats here:
Free NFL football player stats and stats leaders in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks qb rating statistics.
www.teamrankings.com
Then Wade Phillips came on and was asked about the future of running QBs like Lamar Jackson & Kyler Murray ---> Would you bank on a running QB for your team? I wouldn't. Injuries are inevitable. Then he pointed out that Lamar was injured during the playoffs. He said the hardest QB to plan for in his career was Cam but, again, injuries.
Play extenders are very different...ARod, Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen - they are not running QBs according to Wade Phillips. Those QBs will always have a place and pocket passers will be the NFL's future whether or not they can extend plays.
2nd tier: Tannehill, Cousins, Carr - all had QBRs > 100 (and were equal to or better than TB12 last year)
3rd tier: Herbert, Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray. Polian thinks Herbert will be elite soon and has a bright future. He thinks Jackson and Murray have a ceiling of being 2nd tier QBs. Stafford has an opportunity but it's limited due to age.
4th tier/on the fence/not good enough: Mayfield, Fitzpatrick, Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Minshew (did well with little support, however)
5th tier/lots of work needed:
Tua, Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones
6th tier/Injury modified: Cam Newton. Has had a great career but his injuries caught up with him the last 3 years. He's probably a backup at this point but he could surprise this year if his injuries have resolved and if he can hold off recent draftees.
Red Flags for drafting any QB.
"The historical data is clear, 68 percent of first-round quarterbacks between 2009 and 2016 failed.”
- Arm strength - physical ability but good enough is good enough
- Play processing speed - mental
- Speed of delivery - mental
- Work ethic - mental & drive
- Accuracy/ball placement - physical ability
- Pre-existing injury history
- Intangibles amount to 40% of most teams' grades - the media and fans have no clue about the psych testing and depth of background checks that go on in today's NFL.
This was a really good segment.