Giant Octopodes
Well-known member
I dissected the data that I could find regarding QBs, their cap hits, and so forth in the era of free agency, to see if the arguments I've seen flying around that the Seahawks were removing themselves from contention with the new salary for Wilson held merit. Here's what I found:
In the last 16 years, someone named Tom Brady or someone on their 1st, Rookie Contract, won the Super Bowl 10 times. 5 of those are Brady, 5 were on their Rookie Contract (Roethlisberger in 2005, Eli Manning in 2007, Flacco in 2012, Wilson in 2013, Wentz* in 2017).
The other 6 QBs to have won were on veteran contracts, Peyton Manning (twice), Eli Manning in 2011, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. Which is to say, if they're not on a rookie contract, they had better be an "elite" QB, or named Eli Manning and facing the Patriots for some reason.
From 2008, the first year I could find comprehensive QB salary data, only 1 QB in the top 5 highest paid QBs won the Super Bowl, and that was Eli Manning in 2011, who was exactly the 5th highest paid QB that year.
Tom Brady last year set new records for highest paid QB to win the Super Bowl, and highest percentage of cap eaten while winning the Super Bowl, at $22 Million and 12.4% of the cap, all while being the 11th highest paid QB. The ONLY QBs to win a Super Bowl while absorbing 10% or more of their team's Salary Cap in the last 16 years are Peyton Manning (Twice), Tom Brady (Twice), and Eli Manning in 2011, which again is an aberration on so many levels.
The lowest percentage of cap and salary QB to win a Super Bowl in that time is Russell Wilson, who won while being paid $0.6 Million, which was not only the 53rd highest paid QB in the league, it was less than his backup was making.
Finally, it's not like high paid QBs haven't made the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning in 2009 set records for highest percentage of cap to reach the Super Bowl, as the highest paid QB that year with a $21.2 Million salary worth 17.2% of the cap. He just lost that Super Bowl to Brees. He again was in the top 5 highest paid QBs (3rd highest) in 2013 when reaching the Super Bowl vs the Seahawks, at 14.2% of the cap, before his team got embarrassed by the team led by someone absorbing 0.6% of the cap. Matt Ryan was the 3rd highest paid QB, and would have set records with his $23 million, 15.3% of the cap contract had he won, and he was wildly ahead. But Tom Brady is Tom Brady, the Patriots are the Patriots, and that's not how it played out.
It hasn't been all high paid QBs losing in the Super Bowl either, of course. The Rams made it with someone on a rookie contract, the Seahawks did too. In the last 10 years, the average cap hit of the QB on the Losing teams has only been 9.78%, compared to the cap of the QB on the winning teams being on average 8.27%. However, the contract sums for the top paid QBs have been ballooning to amounts wildly disproportionate to that. In 2008, at 6.9%, Roethlisberger was the 10th highest paid QB. In 2018, at 12.4%, Brady was the 11th highest.
The highest paid QB in 2018, Jimmy Garoppolo, was absorbing 20.9% of his team's total cap space. They finished with a record of 4-12. Of course, he was hurt. Rounding out the top 5 you had Matt Stafford (6-10), Derek Carr (4-12), Joe Flacco (10-6, but they went 4-5 under Flacco before he was injured, and then went 6-1 under a QB on a rookie contract while he was hurt), and Andrew Luck (10-6, made it to the playoffs, before being eliminated by a team with a QB on a rookie contract).
So what does all this mean? Have the Seahawks cemented their fate, and will they join the Lions, the Raiders, the 49ers, and Packers of the world, and sign a massive contract for their franchise QB only to languish and miss the playoffs? Perhaps. They were on the decline already and this makes it even more difficult to reload, and they only have 4 draft picks this year. Yet perhaps not. Russell Wilson IS an elite QB, and elite QBs have gone to and won Super Bowls even while absorbing a disproportionately high percentage of his team's cap space. If anyone can do it, it's someone like him. One thing is for sure, though- it will be an uphill battle to do so, and if he manages to win it with the kind of percentage of the cap he'll be absorbing, it would be the highest cap percentage for a Super Bowl winning QB of all time. Interestingly, that would make him both the highest and lowest percentage of the cap for a Super Bowl winning QB in the salary cap era. I'll be interested to see how it goes.
In the last 16 years, someone named Tom Brady or someone on their 1st, Rookie Contract, won the Super Bowl 10 times. 5 of those are Brady, 5 were on their Rookie Contract (Roethlisberger in 2005, Eli Manning in 2007, Flacco in 2012, Wilson in 2013, Wentz* in 2017).
The other 6 QBs to have won were on veteran contracts, Peyton Manning (twice), Eli Manning in 2011, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. Which is to say, if they're not on a rookie contract, they had better be an "elite" QB, or named Eli Manning and facing the Patriots for some reason.
From 2008, the first year I could find comprehensive QB salary data, only 1 QB in the top 5 highest paid QBs won the Super Bowl, and that was Eli Manning in 2011, who was exactly the 5th highest paid QB that year.
Tom Brady last year set new records for highest paid QB to win the Super Bowl, and highest percentage of cap eaten while winning the Super Bowl, at $22 Million and 12.4% of the cap, all while being the 11th highest paid QB. The ONLY QBs to win a Super Bowl while absorbing 10% or more of their team's Salary Cap in the last 16 years are Peyton Manning (Twice), Tom Brady (Twice), and Eli Manning in 2011, which again is an aberration on so many levels.
The lowest percentage of cap and salary QB to win a Super Bowl in that time is Russell Wilson, who won while being paid $0.6 Million, which was not only the 53rd highest paid QB in the league, it was less than his backup was making.
Finally, it's not like high paid QBs haven't made the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning in 2009 set records for highest percentage of cap to reach the Super Bowl, as the highest paid QB that year with a $21.2 Million salary worth 17.2% of the cap. He just lost that Super Bowl to Brees. He again was in the top 5 highest paid QBs (3rd highest) in 2013 when reaching the Super Bowl vs the Seahawks, at 14.2% of the cap, before his team got embarrassed by the team led by someone absorbing 0.6% of the cap. Matt Ryan was the 3rd highest paid QB, and would have set records with his $23 million, 15.3% of the cap contract had he won, and he was wildly ahead. But Tom Brady is Tom Brady, the Patriots are the Patriots, and that's not how it played out.
It hasn't been all high paid QBs losing in the Super Bowl either, of course. The Rams made it with someone on a rookie contract, the Seahawks did too. In the last 10 years, the average cap hit of the QB on the Losing teams has only been 9.78%, compared to the cap of the QB on the winning teams being on average 8.27%. However, the contract sums for the top paid QBs have been ballooning to amounts wildly disproportionate to that. In 2008, at 6.9%, Roethlisberger was the 10th highest paid QB. In 2018, at 12.4%, Brady was the 11th highest.
The highest paid QB in 2018, Jimmy Garoppolo, was absorbing 20.9% of his team's total cap space. They finished with a record of 4-12. Of course, he was hurt. Rounding out the top 5 you had Matt Stafford (6-10), Derek Carr (4-12), Joe Flacco (10-6, but they went 4-5 under Flacco before he was injured, and then went 6-1 under a QB on a rookie contract while he was hurt), and Andrew Luck (10-6, made it to the playoffs, before being eliminated by a team with a QB on a rookie contract).
So what does all this mean? Have the Seahawks cemented their fate, and will they join the Lions, the Raiders, the 49ers, and Packers of the world, and sign a massive contract for their franchise QB only to languish and miss the playoffs? Perhaps. They were on the decline already and this makes it even more difficult to reload, and they only have 4 draft picks this year. Yet perhaps not. Russell Wilson IS an elite QB, and elite QBs have gone to and won Super Bowls even while absorbing a disproportionately high percentage of his team's cap space. If anyone can do it, it's someone like him. One thing is for sure, though- it will be an uphill battle to do so, and if he manages to win it with the kind of percentage of the cap he'll be absorbing, it would be the highest cap percentage for a Super Bowl winning QB of all time. Interestingly, that would make him both the highest and lowest percentage of the cap for a Super Bowl winning QB in the salary cap era. I'll be interested to see how it goes.
