My final QB rankings for the draft. Comps are given for perspective comparisons.
Tier 1. Pro Bowl Potential.
1. Trevor Lawrence. Out in front in a diff class. High floor/high ceiling. Comp - Andrew Luck
2. Trey Lance. The most fundamentally sound quarterback in addition to excellent physical talent. Lance's upside could eventually approach Lawrence, if not exceed it, but his inexperience creates a longer acclimation period. Steve McNair X Matt Stafford
3. Mac Jones. Jones has some Brady-like upside to his mental game & as an accurate pocket player/passer. However, it's more realistic to consider him to be a better version of a stylistically similar player in Kirk Cousins. Comp - Kirk Cousins X Tom Brady.
4. Justin Fields. Fields has all the physical and technical skills of a top prospect with a high ceiling but he has a lower floor because of the processing flaws he must fix. He'll need a team that has the vision to play him early but also gives him room and direction to grow into a player with better processing speed. Comp - Josh Allen
Tier 2. Starter Potential.
5. Davis Mills. He's an accurate passer with fundamentally-sound throwing technique and a good start with reading defenses. He has no flaws that should prevent steady development into a starter in the NFL within 3-4 years. Comp - Eli Manning, Matt Ryan
6. Zach Wilson. I don't understand the hype to put him over the players I have ranked higher. He's often compared to Mahomes with his flash plays but he's far closer to Drew Lock or Jordan Love than he is to Mahomes. He's more fluff than he is substance although some team will be enamored by his fluff. Not worth his high draft capital. Comp - Baker Mayfield X Drew Lock X Johnny Manziel
Tier 3. Fringe Starter/Backup
7. Sam Ehlinger. Comp - Mark Sanchez
8. Jamie Newman. Comp - David Garrard, Jacoby Brissett
9. Kyle Trask. Comp - Trent Edwards X Matt Leinart
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Tier 4. Out of the NFL/Canadian Football
*. Kellen Mond. He's missing all the nuanced points of a well-schooled QB - his footwork, his drop backs, his pocket movements, his reads of coverage and his progressions are all lacking. You know the well built hyper-athletic 13 year old who played QB for the sandlot team? That's Mond. Comp - Manziel X Kaepernick
WRs
Small Slot
1.Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
2.Devonta Smith, Alabama
3.Kadarius Toney, Florida - Toney is my real No.1 on this list since Waddle and Smith will being playing outside. He’s as close to Golden Tate that I have seen with a dash of Percy Harvin’s electric athletic ability. Toney tracks the ball well and his contact balance for his size is superb.
4.Elijah Moore, Ole Miss - He has great feel for working open against zones, he catches everything, and he can give you a slot option who can get vertical 20-30 yards downfield, as well as a scatback who works the outlet routes. Slightly built jitterbug.
5.Rondale Moore, Purdue - Probably the slot receiver on this list with the most upside. He has moves like Barry Sanders and he’s built like Sanders at least by receiver standards. Moore has sudden footwork and terrific burst-balance-power combination. His big-play elements will mostly come after the catch and he'll tie a secondary in knots as they try to corral him.
6.Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - St. Brown is a technically sound route runner with toughness at the catch-point and enough speed to do some work downfield. He’s a good example of a player who does a lot of things well but not one thing stands out as special.
7.D’Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - Eskridge is likely regarded as an outside receiver, but he saw his share of time in the slot and his size and quickness make him well-suited for the role. He’s also a hell of a blocker who could be an asset in the run game when the offense goes to 11 personnel or needs to bunch him to the formation. He ranks lower bc he has a few too many drops.
8.Dazz Newsome, North Carolina - A shifty and physical slot receiver for his size, Newsome has some hands issues but these are correctable flaws. They don’t happen enough that it should stall his development long-term into an effective slot receiver who can deliver as a contested-catch target, screen weapon, and return threat.
9.Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Iowa - Used more as an outside threat at Iowa, Smith-Marsette has the quickness to do work inside where his releases won’t be as challenging. He’s an imaginative runner in tight spaces and wins the ball on quick-hitting plays that match well to the slot.
10.Jalen Darden, North Texas - Sudden and quick, Darden's slim build is concerning.
Big Slot
1.Ja’Marr Chase, LSU - It’ s likely that Chase will be a starting receiver on the outside, but he has all the skills to thrive inside. He’ll be moved around the offense if he’s matched with a decent NFL coordinator because what he does best is win the football and make plays after the catch.
2.Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - Although he lacks the top gear of the best speedsters in this class, he has enough skill to win outside. Think of him as another receiver in the Michael Thomas-Justin Jefferson mold who is too big, quick and savvy to lose in the middle of the field. He also poses problems outside the hash.
3.Terrace Marshall, LSU - Marshall, like his former teammate, Justin Jefferson, played outside and inside during his LSU career. He will likely do both in the NFL. Physical, fluid, and quick, look for Marshall to make an impact as a situational contributor with starter upside as a rookie.
4.Amari Rodgers, Clemson - Built like a feature running back, Rodgers has the speed to play flanker but will likely make his money in the middle where he can use his patience, finishing power, and toughness at the catch point. He’ll also stretch the field up the seams with his speed.
5.Simi Fehoko, Stanford - On paper, he looks like a star split end. On tape, he’s a player best used in the middle of the field where he uses his athletic ability the best.
My Overall Rankings (for the Pats)
Tier 1 Only. (I have 200+ pgs of typewritten notes on 30+ prospects - I'll give a full report on the WRs the Pats take after the draft)
1. Ja'marr Chase - 6', 208. Built to take it. Tough. Fast, quick, great vision, YAC. Comp. De'Andre Hopkins but faster.
2. Jaylen Waddle - 5'10", 182. Tyreek Hill clone. Inside, outside, slot, RB. Let him rip.
3. Rashod Bateman - 6'2", 210. Tough, good blocker, good size with route skills. Comp. Michael Thomas or Keenan Allen.
4. Kadarius Toney - 5'11", 193. Fast, quick with good hands and YAC galore. Slot is ideal. Comp. Golden Tate but more electric.
5. Terrace Marshall - 6'2", 205. Big, fast, tough, strong, good blocker. 3 position WR. Comp. Justin Jefferson but faster.
6. Tylan Marshall - 6/, 185. Stefon Diggs clone.
7. Rondale Moore - 5'7", 180. Very fast and very quick but 180 lbs is my cut off for the Pats otherwise he'd be a little higher. Comp. another Tyreek Hill guy.
Right or wrong, I've chosen not to include players < 180 lbs for durability concerns. DeVonta Smith, Elijah Moore, Jaelon Darden and Tutu Atwell are not on my board bc it would be a major shift for BB to draft a player so slightly built.