The NFL 2023 Draft

sg14

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I haven't seen Alt's name on any of the draft sites. I check the underclassmen who have declared and his name was not on that list. I don't know when the deadline to declare is this year. In past years it's been around 1/25.
1/16 this year.
 
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chevss454

chevss454

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Is it common to have 10 OTs with over an 80 draft grade. How many 2021 draft OTs had a pff grade over 80? I think half the names on this list aren’t really mentioned on other draft sites as first rounders. I’m not familiar with PFFs robustness in the college game, if one can see their metrics with the same rigor as their NFL grades

It's not a real draft grade, it's PFF's grade, so take it with a grain of salt.

A RAS score of 8 or better has historically signified a potentially great OT. Lots of All Pro OTs scored above 9.
It's another metric to use.
 

DropKickFlutie

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I haven't seen Alt's name on any of the draft sites. I check the underclassmen who have declared and his name was not on that list. I don't know when the deadline to declare is this year. In past years it's been around 1/25.

Jon Alt’s dad was a multi-selection pro bowl tackle. So if this kid is available he’s a great option. Only 19 and will get even bigger over time.
 

DropKickFlutie

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A RAS score of 8 or better has historically signified a potentially great OT. Lots of All Pro OTs scored above 9.
It's another metric to use.

Not sure how much I value RAS. We’ll see if Strange and Thornton pan out. In general I care 500x more if a player can play football and has football skills compared to physical measurables. I care zero about combine figures except in a couple cases.

Example: Care more about a WR’s actual route running skills of short and medium routes, release at the line, catch%. Do not care what the 40-time is unless it’s too slow (>4.65). Do not care that a WR can run a 4.3, this is how we end up with Bethel Johnson using a 2nd rounder.
 
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chevss454

chevss454

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Not sure how much I value RAS. We’ll see if Strange and Thornton pan out. In general I care 500x more if a player can play football and has football skills compared to physical measurables. I care zero about combine figures except in a couple cases.

Example: Care more about a WR’s actual route running skills of short and medium routes, release at the line, catch%. Do not care what the 40-time is unless it’s too slow (>4.65). Do not care that a WR can run a 4.3, this is how we end up with Bethel Johnson using a 2nd rounder.

I agree. RAS, as I said above, is another tool in the toolbox.
 

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Flagg the Wanderer

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Figured I should move this over here:

Possibly 5 CBs who are first round worthy. Team is still missing a true CB1. It ain’t Jon Jones. It ain’t Marcus (slot). It could be Jack but not right now (and he’s on thin ice). It might be fitting to see BB take another CB from Rutgers.



WalterFootball.com: 2023 NFL Draft: CB Rankings
I haven't seen Melton play, but I'll take a look.

I actually really love the "early depth" of this CB class. I don't see a clear top 3 level CB, if you don't think the depth is there, take a few publications and compare their CB rankings: there is no agreement on the rank order from the mid-1st through the 4th round.

I've been following Illinois's Witherspoon this season and I love his skillset, he just looks fragile out there. If NE rolled him, Jack, and Marcus out the 3 CBs would total less than 550#, but the kid is a willing and good tackler. I'm also a little concerned about him in zone. If I'm honest, I'm not sure he'll be the best pro DB from his own school this year - I really like Quan Martin more than most. I want more consistency, because I see him as a smother corner rather than a dangerous playmaker, and possibly a cover safety if he really gets the Xs and Os. Love him in zone and as a sure tackler.

I'm a big fan of "Joey Porter's kid." He plays even taller than his 6'2" height - dude can scratch an itch behind his knees without bending and rumored to have a vert over 30" to boot. He loves to hit and takes pride against the run. He's at his best in press man, so I'd like to see him add 5-10# to be able to be an eraser against the bigger pros. I think he'll be excellent in zones, but he needs to improve in loose man coverage. I have a hunch that Belichick might love this kid as well, and he'll likely be hanging around in the mid- to late-teens, especially with Witherspoon & Ringo pushing ahead of him in a lot of rankings recently. I'd be thrilled to see Belichick trade down to 18-20 and get Porter there, but I'd be happy with him at 14. Porter isn't a big-play pick machine, he's just a smothering cover man. Jack and Marcus Jones are "fire," this kid would be "ice."

Look for two playmakers to fall due to size concerns: Kris Abrams-Draine (5'11"/175) out of Mizzou and Clark Phillips (5'9"- maybe - @180) out of Utah. Technically they are first rounders IMO, and explosive as hell - especially Phillips. He's short, but a rugged 5'9", if there is such a thing in the NFL. If we want to max out on the "playmaking sprites on speed" strategy in our defensive backfield, look at these two. Mississippi's Emmanuel Forbes is almost in this category, but he's rated higher and I hope/expect him to fill out. I really like him as a TO machine (in 3 year career: 22 PBUs and 14 picks, 6 of those were pick-6s!) but he takes too many risks, and the risk of not being able to coach that out of him his real. He's tall and long enough, but I'm not sure if he can add the weight to that frame to hold up. Basically, he's Jack Jones, who we already have. I really like the player, but not for us right now unless he's falling a bunch.

On the other side of that coin is my pick for a mid round DB to be a red zone and run-down CB and every down cover safety: Julius Brents out of K-State. I want to see how he runs in Indy, but as long as he comes in close to 4.5 he could be a steal, maybe even in the round 4 or 5 range. He's 6'4" and still filling out at 205ish. Loves to hit, but I'm worried that he might be a bully, used to being bigger than the WRs he faced in college. And he has the long arms to augment his size - would be great to cover big WRs and those pesky TEs who are basically just big WRs, plus defend planned high-point passes in the red zone and beef up the perimeter when you're betting hard on run. Has coverage skills down, but not the fluidity/hips/agility to be a true cover corner. He has instincts, plays smart, and looks good in zone, though, and I think he could be a rangey cover safety and specialist CB to erase TEs without getting bullied. Side note: I expect "length-CB" to be a specialist position in the NFL soon.

I also like Cam Smith out of South Carolina more than most. Offenses (even in the SEC!) avoided him some this year after he got pub in 2021, but he can absolutely play. I think he has NFL speed, good explosiveness & ball skills, and is plenty big at 6' with long arms. I think he's the lowest rated CB in this class that has the real potential to be a true CB1. I don't think he has the potential to be Deion or Revis, but he could be Gilmore or Law. I think he is now considered a 2nd rounder because his numbers fell off: 41 tackles, 3 int, 11 PBUs in 2021 vs 27/1/5 this year. This is also evidenced by the fact that the other starting corner, Dial, racked up 40+ tackles, 3 picks, and 12 PBUs - QBs were throwing away from Smith even when Dial was in good coverage position. He thrives against the short game - seems like his favorite things are jumping outs, slants, and hitches, and loves to deliver the big hits. But he runs routes with WRs smoothly. He does have a "Madden hit-stick" attitude about tackling, and needs to work on his technique - that shit don't fly in the NFL. Coverage technique is outstanding, though. His athleticism is...weird. He's not crazy explosive, but plenty fast and has good size. He doesn't have that crazy, twitchy explosiveness like a Marcus Jones or Tyreek Hill, but it's because he's so smooth it all looks easy and natural, like you shouldn't raise your eyebrows at it. Almost doesn't look like he's straining himself, but it's rare to see him athletically outclassed. Don't love the posing after hits & PBUs - he has a Richard Sherman thing going on - but that is what it is. If he falls towards the 30s or into round 2 I'd move up to get him, and if our targets at 14 are gone and we add 2nd and 3rd rounders moving into the late-ish 20s, I'd be happy with decent value there.

All the draft slotting is silly this early, of course, since the projections will move all over the place.
 

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Interesting how high they have Dawand Jones graded, not that I disagree. The initial stuff I read about him
indicated he was slow-footed and not that athletic, but I was surprised how well he moved for a Giant when
I've watched him. Sort of like Jordan Mailata of Philly. Jones' body is a bit odd-looking and he's not exactly a
gazelle, but he's not slow and could be a guy that becomes dominant as a pro.

I knew Paris Johnson was going to be one of the top guys, but I kept watching Jones.

There should be some kind of metric that measures speed relative to body size. If so, Jones would likely
score higher than his teammate.

Also, Notre Dame has had some OLs drafted that were supposed to be top guys and weren't, but I agree
with the positive comments on Alt. I'd be surprised if he wasn't very solid at the next level and maybe a lot
better than that.
 
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chevss454

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The Pats will be coaching him at the Shrine Game.
For the Pats I'd play him at the Slot position bc of his short area quickness but he also has great speed (4.35) and vision to line up outside the numbers or flanker.
 
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chevss454

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chevss454

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I think they are trying to move away from the 3rd/passing back....having one makes the Offense's tendencies easier to read.

I agree. In fact, they've already completed the move. The Pats RBs now are adept at receiving and running. Stevenson led the Pats in receptions this year.
FB was another position like that. FB in = run 95% of the time.
 

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I agree. In fact, they've already completed the move. The Pats RBs now are adept at receiving and running. Stevenson led the Pats in receptions this year.
FB was another position like that. FB in = run 95% of the time.
And yet, Patricia managed to screw these changes up via QB position so badly it was obvious to the D what was coming. Unreal.
 
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