I noticed the same thing about the contradictory measurements between Prioleau and Blakeman and thought it was quite notable but didn't have time to dig into it.
While I admire the method you employed to attempt to crack the case, I fear that it won't matter much even if you are close to the truth. It's too arcane for public scrutiny and the Wells Report leaves no doubt as to the honor and integrity of the officials, even though the atmosphere in that ref's room at halftime was probably far more total confusion and a sort of how-can-I-keep-my-ass-covered-here guessing game than any swiss laboratory-like precision by anal retentive pigskin technicians. At least I find that scenario more probable than not.
I counted no fewer than a dozen WTF curiosities that seemed to be a little too neatly tied up for my cynical tastes, but the inflation stats are really the foundation of the NFL's case and when those results are questionable then it makes you see nazis in the woodpile.
OK, I've looked at the numbers some more. A few things of note.
I looked at the difference in psi measured by Blakeman and Prioleau.
For the Pats 11 balls at halftime, Blakeman's measurements were 0.3 - 0.45 psi less than Prioluea, with an average of 0.38 and a standard deviation of 0.05.
If the claim about the logo vs. non-logo gauges is correct, then that could explain the difference simply based on who used which gauge.
Now let's look at the Colts 4 balls. The difference is 0.35 to 0.45, however, the difference is of the opposite polarity for 3 of the 4 balls. That is Blakeman measured 3 of the 4 balls more than Prioleau.
So the average difference is -0.19, with a standard deviation of 0.37. Such a large standard deviation raises a huge red flag regarding the quality of this data.
If we assume that for some reason, they swapped gauges for 3 of the four balls, then the difference is 0.35 to 0.45, which is very similar to the 11 Pats balls.
However, one has to wonder how this occurred and wasn't reported. If they made this type of error in their testing and documentation, what else did they get wrong? I'd say it's "more probable than not" that they screwed up their documentation.
On page 69, the report indicates that the 11 Pats balls should be inflated to 13 psi and checked. No air was added to the Colts balls.
After the game, four balls from each team was tested. (page 72)
They don't specify who was measurement #1 and who was #2.
For the Colts, their balls had an average psi of 12.71 and 12.35. The relative pressure difference between #1 and #2 was consistent and the same 0.35 to 0.40 psi.
The Pats balls were 13.46 and 13.08, again with a consistent relative pressure difference of 0.35 to 0.40.
Now if we adjust the measurement of the 4 Colts balls at halftime, assuming they had the gauges swapped, then the average value was 12.74 and 12.33. Recall
no air was added to the Colts balls at halftime. So they basically stayed the same.
The Pats balls actually
increased in pressure in the second half, if they were set to 13 psi.
However, since they didn't record the pressure they were set to, or at least they didn't say they recorded them, we don't know if they were actually at 13.5 psi or not.
However, since they relied on Coleman's statement that he inflated the Pats balls to 12.5 psi, and the Colts to 13.0 psi without any written record, then we should also accept that the Pats balls were inflated to 13.0 psi at halftime.
If so, then how the frack did the pressure
go up?
IMHO, there are only two possible explanations.
The psi measurements are unreliable to the point of being useless, or the claims of pre-game and half time inflation psi values are meaningless.
So in conclusion,
if the #'s don't fit, you must acquit.
