ESPN Insider take on how Vegas experts see this game.
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:shrug: Doesn't seem to want to let me in.
Cheers
A familiar matchup kicks off the divisional round with the
Baltimore Ravens traveling to Foxboro to take on the
New England Patriots. This will be the fourth time since the 2009 season these teams have met in the playoffs, and all the meetings have been in New England. The Ravens have won two of the three outright, and covered in all three. The two teams have combined to represent the AFC in seven of the past 14 Super Bowls and have won five of them.
The Ravens finished the regular season 9-7 against the spread and had a 7-9 over/under record. They also covered last week in their upset win over the
Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots finished 9-7 ATS and had a 9-7 O/U mark.
The line for this game has wavered between 7 and 7.5, identical to the two lines, respectively, of the 2012 and 2013 AFC Championship Games between these two teams.
According to
ESPN Insider's PickCenter, 53 percent of the public is backing the Ravens at a line of New England minus-7. It isn't often that the public throws its support against the Patriots, especially as a favorite.
Let's get some analysis and picks on the game from three Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley, Wunderdog and Erin Rynning -- and prop bets picks from John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information.
All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas as of Thursday morning.
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Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Spread: Opened
New England -7.5; now New England -7 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 49; now 48
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Public perception: The public is slightly favoring Baltimore at plus-7 at ESPN Insider's PickCenter and other bet-tracking sites are showing the same trend. New England is only 3-10 ATS in its past 13 playoff games, so the public has been burned a lot in recent years. Still, the Patriots are getting enough support to keep this line from dipping below a touchdown (so far).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps quickly scooped up all the Ravens plus-7.5s and above that were available after the line opened last Saturday night. Wiseguys have been more split on this game at 7. However, the books will probably face a lot of early teaser liability on the Patriots if they win straight up.
Tuley's take: I was among those who grabbed the Ravens right away at plus-7.5. Baltimore, with a lot of the same core players, has gone into New England twice in the playoffs in recent years (2009-10 and its 2012-13 Super Bowl season) and pulled outright upsets. But even if you want to throw out those results and look at the current teams, the Ravens match up well. The Patriots are regarded as an offensive juggernaut, yet they're No. 11 in the league at 365.5 yards per game with the Ravens right behind them at No. 12 with 364.9 YPG. While the Ravens' defense isn't as strong as in the past, it still ended up No. 8 at 336.9 YPG compared to the Patriots at 344.1 YPG. And the Ravens have allowed only an average of 15.5 points in their past five games.
The pick: Ravens +7
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Wunderdog says: The Patriots probably didn't want to see the Ravens in the playoffs again, but here they are. New England had a seven-week surge this season in which it went 7-0 and scored just shy of 40 points per game. The Patriots are, however, just 5-4 in their other nine games. The problem for them is that the 7-0 streak ended a month and a half ago. The 5-4 team scored 21.2 points per game -- a night and day difference. In its past five games, New England has averaged just 22.2 PPG.
As predicted here, Baltimore upset Pittsburgh last week.
Joe Flacco has now had a 100 or better passer rating in six straight playoff games, second only to Joe Montana with eight. A big issue for New England is
Tom Brady and his 73.2 passer rating versus Baltimore, which seems to have his number. That rating falls to 66.2 in his past five at home against the Ravens. New England is only generating a net positive 21 yards per game this season, and Baltimore generates plus-22 yards per game, so there is no edge for either team at the line of scrimmage.
Over their past five games, the Ravens have allowed just 15.5 points per game, and it's those kind of defenses that win in January. New England's defense is also playing at a high level, but the point is that these teams are not 7 points apart right now. Playoff teams that average more than 28.3 PPG and are taking on a team off a road win on at least six days of rest are 0-13 ATS in a playoff game, and just 4-9 SU despite being a minus-8.8 favorite on average.
I think this line is several points off where it should be. Take the points on Baltimore.
ATS pick: Baltimore +7
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Erin Rynning says: Look for Brady and the Patriots' offense to play extremely quick off their bye week with a determined short passing game. This Ravens secondary is vulnerable, while dealing with numerous injuries to their cornerbacks this season, including key cog
Jimmy Smith. The Ravens finished 24th in pass defense, but their schedule was hardly a list of above-average NFL quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak didn't hide their thoughts after beating the Steelers last week. They used an aggressive approach on offense and they'll need a similar philosophy to outscore the Patriots on Saturday. It's hard to argue with how Flacco has elevated his game in the postseason, while currently boasting a 13-0 touchdown to interception ratio over his past five playoff games. The bet in this contest is over the total.
Pick: Over 48
