A Thought On 1st & 2nd Round Picks

[Den-in-NH]

3 Championships in his first 4 years. How many more did we think Brady would win? The future seemed limitless - could Brady end up with 4, 5, or even 6 Superbowl Rings by the time all was said and done? Hope reigned eternal in 2004...

And yet here we are, seven seasons later and without another championship. Indeed we were close - a few catches away from winning it all in 06, 07 and 11...

But the reality is Brady's window is closing. We've got another 5 or 6 seasons, tops - and of those probably only 3 or 4 at a very high level. That said, the time is now! We must capitilize because a Brady only comes along once in a lifetime.

So Bill, please, please, please use those picks this year! Both first rounders, both second rounders - all of it! I know we could continually roll picks into future years, amassing an extra pick or two every year - but we no longer have the luxury of thinking about the future. We're so close, but the window is closing...

We need to use all of these picks where they stand to get immediate impact players to get this team over that last small hurdle -

So please, Bill, let's use those picks this year and bring it home! We owe it to Brady to get him back to the promised land!

 

[Number Cruncher]

this

 

[rivshark86]

I say screw it, they should go get Larry Fitzgerald and win some rings. What whould it take? A first rounder? A first and a sencond? Two first rounders? Do that, bring in a bunch of vets for the DL like they did this year, one or two will stick. Hell with Fitzgerald, Gronk, Welker, and Hernandeze you could fill in the holes on defense with people from this forum and I think the team could make a superbowl.
Id rather see that then watch Belichick make another miss on a corner or safety late in the first or early in the second. They may not have all been misses, but for all the draft ammo Bill has spent towards the secondary in the past 5 years, they are not that great. I guess I just trust Belichick more when he is bringing in free agents for defense.

At least go get Dwayne Bowe.

 

[midgar8784]

3 Championships in his first 4 years. How many more did we think Brady would win? The future seemed limitless - could Brady end up with 4, 5, or even 6 Superbowl Rings by the time all was said and done? Hope reigned eternal in 2004...

And yet here we are, seven seasons later and without another championship. Indeed we were close - a few catches away from winning it all in 06, 07 and 11...

But the reality is Brady's window is closing. We've got another 5 or 6 seasons, tops - and of those probably only 3 or 4 at a very high level. That said, the time is now! We must capitilize because a Brady only comes along once in a lifetime.

So Bill, please, please, please use those picks this year! Both first rounders, both second rounders - all of it! I know we could continually roll picks into future years, amassing an extra pick or two every year - but we no longer have the luxury of thinking about the future. We're so close, but the window is closing...

We need to use all of these picks where they stand to get immediate impact players to get this team over that last small hurdle -

So please, Bill, let's use those picks this year and bring it home! We owe it to Brady to get him back to the promised land!

Good post....I think the one thing that hurts is, Football is different than it used to be, you could keep a team together and keep winning titles....how the pats have even stayed in the hunt this long with so many changes is flat out amazing, no other teams really have for that long of a time. We see a team pop up and win and then not even make the playoffs...so yeah, its time to get some players in here, and well we flat out needed them anyway. I think most thought the ocho thing would work out better than it did, but when it failed, it really left a huge hole and it was covered up by great players like Gronk, welker, Brady and ahern....and then you have an injury and the hole opens. That has to be taken care of.

 

[Undertaker #59*]

Actually, I think this year they are more likely to use their picks, or even trade up for the right player, now that rookie salaries are much more reasonable and more in line with what they should be. The top picks are much more affordable now. Before, it made sense to trade down to a certain point because the price paid was way too much for the uncertainty.

 

[Annihilus]

Actually, I think this year they are more likely to use their picks, or even trade up for the right player, now that rookie salaries are much more reasonable and more in line with what they should be. The top picks are much more affordable now. Before, it made sense to trade down to a certain point because the price paid was way too much for the uncertainty.

This right here.

I'm pretty excited for this draft - and that doesn't usually happen (for me).

 

[PatsFanLisa]

Actually, I think this year they are more likely to use their picks, or even trade up for the right player, now that rookie salaries are much more reasonable and more in line with what they should be. The top picks are much more affordable now. Before, it made sense to trade down to a certain point because the price paid was way too much for the uncertainty.

I completely agree. It's not like they haven't done it before, and there are some exceptional D players coming out. I think they move up.

This right here.

I'm pretty excited for this draft - and that doesn't usually happen (for me).

Me too.

 

[Hawg73]

Just a recommendation for people who like to speculate on BB's drafts to pick up Mike Holley's The War Room if for no other reason than the way it covers his approach and philosophy to the draft.

It doesn't provide concrete proof that we will trade down and amass more picks like we have consistently done, but it does shed some light on the process and how much Bill truly loves the draft.

I hate being a wet blanket, but I don't see this one playing out any different. BB will target guys he thinks can play and will guess at where they will fall and trade if he thinks he can steal a couple of picks and still get his guys.

Plus, we only have six picks to start with and we took nine last year and an even dozen the previous two.

Hey, if he loves, for instance, Claiborne or Upshaw, thinks they would be dramatic upgrades over the incumbents and wants to go get one of them, I'd be thrilled.

I think everybody is tired over project guys like Cunningham or Brace and wants an IMPACT guy RIGHT. FRIGGING. NOW. I'm no exception, but I ain't holding my breath.

 

[Smudger]

could Brady end up with 4, 5, or even 6 Superbowl Rings by the time all was said and done?

I still think he could.

 

[thomas144]

I hate being a wet blanket, but I don't see this one playing out any different. BB will target guys he thinks can play and will guess at where they will fall and trade if he thinks he can steal a couple of picks and still get his guys.

....

I think everybody is tired over project guys like Cunningham or Brace and wants an IMPACT guy RIGHT. FRIGGING. NOW. I'm no exception, but I ain't holding my breath.

i agree. Every year we want them to move up to get that one impact player, but it's much more rational to keep doing things the way they've been doing it. If someone offers them a 2nd this year and 1st next year for one of their first round picks this year, of course they should do it (I find it inconceivable that picking where they are that there would be any sure-fire impact player available, unless something crazy happens).

 

[Hawg73]

i agree. Every year we want them to move up to get that one impact player, but it's much more rational to keep doing things the way they've been doing it. If someone offers them a 2nd this year and 1st next year for one of their first round picks this year, of course they should do it (I find it inconceivable that picking where they are that there would be any sure-fire impact player available, unless something crazy happens).

That's the beauty of it.

There absolutely WILL be an impact player available at where they are picking right now because there is every year.

Using 2010 as an example; Gronkowski was the 42nd pick well behind such highly-touted "impact" guys that a lot of fans wanted such as Brandon Graham (13), Jared Odrick (28) and Jerry Hughes (31).

Graham, in particular, was a guy that a lot of people liked as a sure-fire pass rusher. Most experts agreed that the Eagles panicked and reached for him, but the guy has 17 tackles and 3 sacks in 16 career games.

How could you even calculate the difference in value between a Gronk at 42 and a Graham at 13? Gronk was a brilliant gamble. Team's fortunes swing based on either case.

If you go back to the previous year Tyson Jackson was the 3rd pick in the draft and has 3 career sacks. Connor Barwin went at 46 and has 16. Clay Matthew went at 26 and has 29.5. Either could have been Pats easily, but they didn't want them or see what they would turn out to be.

This is not to say that you are better off drafting where we usually do than in the top ten. The odds are worse, but there are still "impact" players available further down if you are smart enough to find them.

 

[Beaglebay]

Having sat through last year's draft on this board, I recall the disbelief and confounded reactions to BB's picks, and I anticipate another head-scratching draft this year. Between re-signings, trades and other acquisitions, BB will again creatively morph NE into a competitive and unfamiliar entity which will challenge opponents to strategize from outside their comfort zones and strengths.

I can't wait

 

[Grumpy_Bottom]

Having sat through last year's draft on this board, I recall the disbelief and confounded reactions to BB's picks, and I anticipate another head-scratching draft this year. Between re-signings, trades and other acquisitions, BB will again creatively morph NE into a competitive and unfamiliar entity which will challenge opponents to strategize from outside their comfort zones and strengths.

I can't wait

Yeah, I've given up on draft predictions. I'm pretty safe saying "if I, or anyone else here, thinks they might do it, they probably won't"

 

[thomas144]

This is not to say that you are better off drafting where we usually do than in the top ten. The odds are worse, but there are still "impact" players available further down if you are smart enough to find them.

right, but I guess I mean not just an impact player but an obvious "can't miss" - who are pretty rare. I'm not sure I can think of one since O.J. Simpson.

 

[midgar8784]

Having sat through last year's draft on this board, I recall the disbelief and confounded reactions to BB's picks, and I anticipate another head-scratching draft this year. Between re-signings, trades and other acquisitions, BB will again creatively morph NE into a competitive and unfamiliar entity which will challenge opponents to strategize from outside their comfort zones and strengths.

I can't wait

I just do not want to be sitting here next year and wonder....why do we have such a gaping hole in this area....yet again!. I understand building a team takes time, and sometimes you go through rough area's, but the pats have needed a "good" young receiver for the past....ok for a long time. I do not mind taking a project as long as you do not cut him 2 years later and that seems to be the case lately....oh I will draft all of these corners and none are on the team a couple years later, thats when you start to have questions...Oh what a bargain we got drafting this guy cause he had injury issues in college and then....you guessed it, he has injury issues at the NFL level too. I have seen teams with lesser talent at Qb get receivers that make an impact, so with this QB and this team, if you cannot find one, then something is wrong.

 

[O_P_T]

If you go back to the previous year Tyson Jackson was the 3rd pick in the draft and has 3 career sacks. Connor Barwin went at 46 and has 16. Clay Matthew went at 26 and has 29.5. Either could have been Pats easily, but they didn't want them or see what they would turn out to be.

I've said this before, but it bears repeating.

Looking at the numbers any player puts up on Team A does not necessarily translate to what they would do on Team B.

The two teams do not necessarily run the same scheme, and a player may be perfectly suited to scheme X and be horrible in scheme Y.

The player does not play in isolation but with 10 other guys. The performance of one or more of those other 10 guys may make a huge difference over how the player is game planned for by the other teams.

How many times has some DL free agent been a stud with Team A, sign with Team B and had a huge drop in performance, because he played next to a guy who was double teamed all the time and he only saw a single blocker. Once he changed teams he was double teamed.

Now as far as BB's drafting of defensive talent over the past 6 odd years, there's another wrinkle to add to the mix.

When BB first became head coach of the Pats there weren't as many teams running a 3-4 defense, and some of those (i.e. Pitt) used a different scheme.

So there wasn't as much as a demand in the rest of the league for the type of player who fit his scheme. So he had a better chance of having his kind of guy available when our turn came to draft.

This is no longer the case.

 

[sunnyownage]

Belichick loves to draft in "pairs". Hopefully he drafts a "pair" of pass rushers this year

Well the more I think about it I may as well attach wings on pigs and hope they fly. We've demanded 1st round pass rusher for the past 3 years, and have only draft one in the 2nd round that is currently failing and released a 3rd rounder.

 

[Sea'sBiscuits]

I say screw it, they should go get Larry Fitzgerald and win some rings. What whould it take? A first rounder? A first and a sencond? Two first rounders? Do that, bring in a bunch of vets for the DL like they did this year, one or two will stick. Hell with Fitzgerald, Gronk, Welker, and Hernandeze you could fill in the holes on defense with people from this forum and I think the team could make a superbowl.
Id rather see that then watch Belichick make another miss on a corner or safety late in the first or early in the second. They may not have all been misses, but for all the draft ammo Bill has spent towards the secondary in the past 5 years, they are not that great. I guess I just trust Belichick more when he is bringing in free agents for defense.

At least go get Dwayne Bowe.

Fitz would require two firsts - one this year, one following year most likely.

D.Bowe is pretty underrated. Year before last he was dominant and he was double covered a lot.

If Brandon Lloyd comes in, produced like he did in McDans offense in Denver, StL all I think the Pats need is a fast outside guy. Said it before will say it again - trade for Desean when he gets franchised. Maybe a 2nd rounder at most for him, coming off such a terrible season?

That means we can still use those two firsts to trade up/down get some more talent on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[Sea'sBiscuits]

I've said this before, but it bears repeating.

Looking at the numbers any player puts up on Team A does not necessarily translate to what they would do on Team B.

The two teams do not necessarily run the same scheme, and a player may be perfectly suited to scheme X and be horrible in scheme Y.

The player does not play in isolation but with 10 other guys. The performance of one or more of those other 10 guys may make a huge difference over how the player is game planned for by the other teams.

How many times has some DL free agent been a stud with Team A, sign with Team B and had a huge drop in performance, because he played next to a guy who was double teamed all the time and he only saw a single blocker. Once he changed teams he was double teamed.

Now as far as BB's drafting of defensive talent over the past 6 odd years, there's another wrinkle to add to the mix.

When BB first became head coach of the Pats there weren't as many teams running a 3-4 defense, and some of those (i.e. Pitt) used a different scheme.

So there wasn't as much as a demand in the rest of the league for the type of player who fit his scheme. So he had a better chance of having his kind of guy available when our turn came to draft.

This is no longer the case.

Ill happily take DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson and Super mario in freeagency and we'll test that scheme theory.

Great players are great in any scheme.

 

[CreamedCorn]

Hopefully he drafts a "pair" of pass rushers this year

you spelled "wide receivers" wrong bro