http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2016/09/options_around_for_tom_brady_and_jimmy_garoppolo
While the league is starved for quality starting quarterbacks, the Patriots boast an embarrassment of riches. In Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo, they have an established superstar along with an up-and-coming star. (The collection expands to three if you throw Jacoby Brissett in there, though Thursday night’s 27-0 victory notwithstanding, he is still early in the process.)
With the signs promising on Garoppolo after seeing him effectively run the Patriots offense for a game and a half, even to the point of looking a bit like Brady with his quick reads and lightning release against Arizona and Miami, it’s opened up the discussion and sparked plenty of debate during the week.
Who stays? Who goes? And when?
“The Patriots are dealing from a position of strength,” ESPN analyst Damien Woody said when reached last week. “Everyone knows what you have in Brady. And now, you have a backup that could start for almost any organization.”
Of course, nothing is imminent. Garoppolo is signed through next season, and Brady through 2019, but the Patriots have to be thinking about the future and which quarterback will lead them going forward.
Will it be four-time Super Bowl winner Brady, who is 39 and falls in the age zone that typically sees quarterback play diminish? Only Brady, when last seen, was producing one of the best seasons of his storied career. Will it be Garoppolo, who just may have shown enough to convince the powers that be he is a worthy successor to the legend?
It’s hard to ignore how well Jimmy G played, how great he was against the blitz, and how much he looked the part.
So do you keep the quarterback who is more likely to bring you immediate success in another championship, or the kid who will take care of the position for the next decade, and, in theory, eventually crank out more titles?
Decisions, decisions.
The only thing anyone knows with any reasonable certainty is Brissett will be around for the next four years on his rookie contract. How he handled jumping in to start Thursday night on short notice thickens the plot, but essentially anchors him in Foxboro as a backup and possible heir to Brady if Jimmy G is dealt.
Whatever the case, the Patriots are rolling in quarterbacks, which is something no one else can say in the NFL.
“No one’s putting (Garoppolo) in Canton, but he’s a legitimate starter,” Woody added. “You can try and keep him, sign him and transition him to being the next guy for when Tom moves on, or you can trade him and get a high draft pick. The Patriots can’t go wrong in this whole thing.”
Now that Woody has thrown out some of the scenarios, let’s outline them.
Option 1: Keep Brady, trade Garoppolo. Assuming Brady is still operating at a superstar level when he returns, with an unknown timetable for when Father Time actually catches up with him, the Patriots have an asset in Garoppolo. Given the current landscape in the NFL, they’re likely to get a hefty return. It’s not outlandish to think some poor team would hand over a pair of first-round picks for him, one at the very least. It’s also not crazy to think a team like Cleveland, long mired in a quarterback slump, would make some kind of move for one at the end of the season. Their draft picks would be desired given where they’ll land in the pecking order.
The 49ers and Jets would also be in the mix, but it’s doubtful Bill Belichick would send Garoppolo to New York. The Pats would likely want to deal with a team where he wouldn’t come back to bite them. Plus, Belichick hates the Jets.
Option 2: Keep Garoppolo, trade Brady. Many of the all-time greats did not finish with their original team, be it Joe Montana, Peyton Manning or Brett Favre. This scenario is hard to imagine, but if anyone would have the guts to deal Brady and suffer the fallout, it would be Belichick. You can just hear him say, “I’m just doing what I think is best for the team.” If he thinks keeping a younger Garoppolo is best, that’s what will happen.
Behind his obvious icon status, however, the logistics of Brady’s deal would suggest it won’t happen. The Brady deal was reworked before the season to drop his base salary, and also give him a $28 million signing bonus, ostensibly to help offset the financial hit from the four-game suspension. The parameters of the deal also make it tough for the Pats to be without him. If Brady’s not on the Pats roster in 2017, his cap hit jumps from $14 million to $27 million in dead money. In 2018, it’s more palatable, with the hit going from $22 million to $14 million in dead money if he left. So this still doesn’t seem like a likely scenario.
Option 3: Keep Brady, keep Garoppolo. It’s not outlandish to think Jimmy G will be here at least part of next year, if not the entire year. If the Patriots wanted to keep Garoppolo beyond that as insurance, they could use the franchise tag. It’s awkward, expensive and crazy, considering the projected tag in 2018 for quarterbacks is $22 million. (Coincidentally, same as Brady’s 2018 cap hit.)
So it makes no sense to keep two quarterbacks at more than $40 million. The way it might work is if a now 40-something Brady adjusts his contract once again to lower his cap hit. But will the ultra-competitive Brady make all that work for his replacement to stick around, then gracefully walk off into the sunset when the time comes?
Another interesting subplot here is Brady and Garoppolo have the same agent, Don Yee. Might Yee work out something with the team that would bump up Garoppolo and allow both to stay a bit longer? Of course, the Pats might have others they’d consider more tag-worthy than Jimmy G, such as cornerback Malcolm Butler or linebacker Jamie Collins, who might be on his second tag at that point.
Option 4: Garoppolo walks. Can’t imagine this one at all, but Jimmy G sticks around the entire 2017 season as the backup and then is allowed to hit unrestricted free agency, which would likely land him a bundle. Remember Brock Osweiler, whom the Patriots just beat with Brissett, got $72 million from the Texans over four years. If it plays out this way, the Patriots get one more year of a top-shelf backup and net a third-round compensatory pick in the 2019 draft.
Those are the basic scenarios. And of course, having Brissett in the stable is icing on the cake. Maybe he plays next week against the Bills, or maybe not given the thumb injury he suffered in the second half on Thursday. Maybe it’s back to Jimmy G if he’s able to play with the shoulder problem. Perhaps we’re onto Julian Edelman or a quarterback to be named later.
Given how the Patriots have performed thus far, it doesn’t seem to matter.
“All I know is with Garoppolo playing well in those first two games, it’s just made for good sports radio fodder. What’s going to happen with Tom? What are they going to do with Garoppolo? It just gives everyone a lot of talking points,” said Woody. “But the more Garoppolo keeps playing well, they’re just in a position of strength. You don’t know when Tom Brady’s going to fall off. But at some point, he’s going to fall off. You just don’t know.
“But what I do know, is they got it better than any other team in the league right now.”