How does Mac Jones compare with other QB's?

Who has the lowest potential of these quarterbacks drafted since 2018?

  • Josh Allen

  • Justin Herbert

  • Joe Burrow

  • Lamar Jackson

  • Kyler Murray

  • Trevor Lawrence

  • Mac Jones


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crawhammer

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Ja'Marr Chase was the best rookie in the NFL this season. In terms of individual production, impact on team's win/losses, and future potential, Chase is way ahead of all other rookies on offense. Micah Parsons similarly on defense.

Statistically Mac Jones had a better year than all other rookie quarterbacks. He also had the best supporting cast and best coaching staff of any rookie quarterback. Trey Lance gets an incomplete so I'm essentially excluding him. Davis Mills gets an honorable mention for his performance with the worst supporting cast of any rookie quarterback. I also think the Patriots may have been better off if they had traded up to select Micah Parsons and then selected Kyle Trask or Mills with their subsequent pick. Although in that scenario they're probably losing out on Barmore. Still, Parsons looks like he'll be terrorizing opposing quarterbacks for the next decade at least. And I like Trask's potential from the second tier 2021 draft prospects at quarterback.

Considering Mac Jones' potential with other quarterbacks drafted in rounds 1-3 since 2018, here is my ranking, most potential to least:

01. Josh Allen (2018 1st Rd)
02. Justin Herbert (2020 1st Rd)
03. Joe Burrow (2020 1st Rd)
04. Lamar Jackson (2018 1st Rd)
05. Kyler Murray (2019 1st Rd)
06. Trevor Lawrence (2021 1st Rd)
07. Trey Lance (2021 1st Rd)
08. Justin Fields (2021 1st Rd)
09. Mac Jones (2021 1st Rd)
10. Jalen Hurts (2020 2nd Rd)
11. Zach Wilson (2021 1st Rd)
12. Daniel Jones (2019 1st Rd)
13. Kyle Trask (2021 2nd Rd)
14. Baker Mayfield (2018 1st Rd)
15. Davis Mills (2021 3rd Rd)
16. Jordan Love (2020 1st Rd)
17. Mason Rudolph (2018 3rd Rd)
18. Tua Tagovailoa (2020 1st Rd)
19. Sam Darnold (2018 1st Rd)
20. Drew Lock (2019 2nd Rd)
21. Josh Rosen (2018 1st Rd)
22. Dwayne Haskins (2019 1st Rd)

The bad news is the top 4 are in the AFC and play for already playoff contending teams. Allen is going to be a constant beast in the division and Buffalo is loaded with young talent. And none of this includes Mahomes in KC.

Mac Jones needs a true #1 receiver. They've got the complementary run game. But the receives aren't good enough for Jones to maximize his potential. I don't trust the Patriots draft board as it relates to receivers. I'd like to see them take a run at Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay seems unlikely to retain him and his cost is probably depressed due to the ACL. His versatility would do wonders for any offense (assuming full health). Not sure how attractive New England is for receivers at this point.
 

chevss454

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Statistically Mac Jones had a better year than all other rookie quarterbacks. He also had the best supporting cast and best coaching staff of any rookie quarterback. Trey Lance gets an incomplete so I'm essentially excluding him. Davis Mills gets an honorable mention for his performance with the worst supporting cast of any rookie quarterback. I also think the Patriots may have been better off if they had traded up to select Micah Parsons and then selected Kyle Trask or Mills with their subsequent pick. Although in that scenario they're probably losing out on Barmore. Still, Parsons looks like he'll be terrorizing opposing quarterbacks for the next decade at least. And I like Trask's potential from the second tier 2021 draft prospects at quarterback.

Considering Mac Jones' potential with other quarterbacks drafted in rounds 1-3 since 2018, here is my ranking, most potential to least:

01. Josh Allen (2018 1st Rd)
02. Justin Herbert (2020 1st Rd)
03. Joe Burrow (2020 1st Rd)
04. Lamar Jackson (2018 1st Rd)
05. Kyler Murray (2019 1st Rd)
06. Trevor Lawrence (2021 1st Rd)
07. Trey Lance (2021 1st Rd)
08. Justin Fields (2021 1st Rd)
09. Mac Jones (2021 1st Rd)
10. Jalen Hurts (2020 2nd Rd)
11. Zach Wilson (2021 1st Rd)
12. Daniel Jones (2019 1st Rd)
13. Kyle Trask (2021 2nd Rd)
14. Baker Mayfield (2018 1st Rd)
15. Davis Mills (2021 3rd Rd)
16. Jordan Love (2020 1st Rd)
17. Mason Rudolph (2018 3rd Rd)
18. Tua Tagovailoa (2020 1st Rd)
19. Sam Darnold (2018 1st Rd)
20. Drew Lock (2019 2nd Rd)
21. Josh Rosen (2018 1st Rd)
22. Dwayne Haskins (2019 1st Rd)

The bad news is the top 4 are in the AFC and play for already playoff contending teams. Allen is going to be a constant beast in the division and Buffalo is loaded with young talent. And none of this includes Mahomes in KC.

Mac Jones needs a true #1 receiver. They've got the complementary run game. But the receives aren't good enough for Jones to maximize his potential. I don't trust the Patriots draft board as it relates to receivers. I'd like to see them take a run at Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay seems unlikely to retain him and his cost is probably depressed due to the ACL. His versatility would do wonders for any offense (assuming full health). Not sure how attractive New England is for receivers at this point.

Hard to know "potential" since circumstances play so much into that.
I'll give a go as I see it. I tend to like smart QBs who understand their offense and what the defense is trying to do against him.
That way he knows, with time and experience, how best to attack the defense.

Tier 1 All Pro careers
Tie between the first 3.
01. Josh Allen (2018 1st Rd)
01. Justin Herbert (2020 1st Rd)
01. Joe Burrow (2020 1st Rd)
04. Mac Jones (2021 1st Rd)
05. Trevor Lawrence (2021 1st Rd) (Skills are there but is his brain and drive?)

Tier 2 Good starter caliber. Needs complementary players built around his skill with a scheme to fit.
06. Lamar Jackson (2018 1st Rd)
07. Trey Lance (2021 1st Rd)
08. Justin Fields (2021 1st Rd)
09. Kyler Murray (2019 1st Rd)
10. Zach Wilson (2021 1st Rd)
11. Tua Tagovailoa (2020 1st Rd)

Tier 3 Starter Caliber. But won't get you where you want to go. Bridge QBs in my mind.
12. Baker Mayfield (2018 1st Rd)
13. Jalen Hurts (2020 2nd Rd)
14. Davis Mills (2021 3rd Rd)
15. Drew Lock (2019 2nd Rd)

Tier 4 Backup QB for most teams
16. Kyle Trask (2021 2nd Rd) (Almost put Trask into Tier 3 but he hasn't shown enough for that yet)
17. Jordan Love (2020 1st Rd) (Really unsure about this guy)
18. Daniel Jones (2019 1st Rd)
19. Sam Darnold (2018 1st Rd)
20. Mason Rudolph (2018 3rd Rd) (ROFL)
21. Josh Rosen (2018 1st Rd)
22. Dwayne Haskins (2019 1st Rd)
 

patsload

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I like how the thread title is "How does Mac Jones compare with other QB's?"

Then the first sentence is

"Ja'Marr Chase was the best rookie in the NFL this season. In terms of individual production, impact on team's win/losses, and future potential, Chase is way ahead of all other rookies on offense. Micah Parsons similarly on defense."

um....ok
 

chevss454

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I like how the thread title is "How does Mac Jones compare with other QB's?"

Then the first sentence is

"Ja'Marr Chase was the best rookie in the NFL this season. In terms of individual production, impact on team's win/losses, and future potential, Chase is way ahead of all other rookies on offense. Micah Parsons similarly on defense."

um....ok

When I replied I deleted all that nonsense.
 

Mazz22

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Obviously Mac needs a #1 WR. He also needs an Edelman like WR too.
How much do you expect Bill to spend on the skill group this off-season given how much he spent last year? I don't think he sees a need to upgrade anywhere given how much money is tied up in Agahlor, Bourne, Smith and Henry. I think he will spend a ton on defense which he needs to but would be surprised to see anymore allocated to the receiver skill spots. Maybe he tries to draft a slot guy in the Edelman/Amendola mode later in the draft.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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How much do you expect Bill to spend on the skill group this off-season given how much he spent last year? I don't think he sees a need to upgrade anywhere given how much money is tied up in Agahlor, Bourne, Smith and Henry. I think he will spend a ton on defense which he needs to but would be surprised to see anymore allocated to the receiver skill spots. Maybe he tries to draft a slot guy in the Edelman/Amendola mode later in the draft.
Draft?
 
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crawhammer

crawhammer

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I like how the thread title is "How does Mac Jones compare with other QB's?"

Then the first sentence is

"Ja'Marr Chase was the best rookie in the NFL this season. In terms of individual production, impact on team's win/losses, and future potential, Chase is way ahead of all other rookies on offense. Micah Parsons similarly on defense."

um....ok
I only added that because I got admonished for bringing it up elsewhere. Although, I do think it's relevant how Jones stacks up with the entire '21 1st round draft class (as a subtopic).

How much do you expect Bill to spend on the skill group this off-season given how much he spent last year? I don't think he sees a need to upgrade anywhere given how much money is tied up in Agahlor, Bourne, Smith and Henry. I think he will spend a ton on defense which he needs to but would be surprised to see anymore allocated to the receiver skill spots. Maybe he tries to draft a slot guy in the Edelman/Amendola mode later in the draft.
I think the spending spree last off-season, which yielded mixed results, will impact how they approach this off-season (i.e. conservatively). Presently they're also relative pennies under the cap.
 

spacecrime

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We've been saying this since Moss ...
True #1 would be nice but hardly necessary, and probably not the best bang for the buck. The Patriots won plenty of superbowls without a true #1, and none with Moss.

We've made a living with a smart QB who is better at short accurate passing than going all Brett Favre. Ability to read defenses, anticipate throws, and make good decisions A good TE, slot receiver, and a hard driving RB can be had for the price of a #1 WR and IMO would make the team more competitive. Especially as Jones' strengths check off those boxes nicely, and did awesomely as a rookie starter

All that said, Jameson Williams would be a nice first round pick if Jordan Davis is taken by 21. The advantage of a top defensive player is that they figure into most defense plays, whereas WRs only in a fraction of the offensive plays.
 

Mazz22

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True #1 would be nice but hardly necessary, and probably not the best bang for the buck. The Patriots won plenty of superbowls without a true #1, and none with Moss.

We've made a living with a smart QB who is better at short accurate passing than going all Brett Favre. Ability to read defenses, anticipate throws, and make good decisions A good TE, slot receiver, and a hard driving RB can be had for the price of a #1 WR and IMO would make the team more competitive. Especially as Jones' strengths check off those boxes nicely, and did awesomely as a rookie starter

All that said, Jameson Williams would be a nice first round pick if Jordan Davis is taken by 21. The advantage of a top defensive player is that they figure into most defense plays, whereas WRs only in a fraction of the offensive plays.
Yeah. I'm not sure Bill thinks the skill group is as bad as most of us because it was year one in a new system with a rookie QB. I think he feels good about them and his RBs and if he drafts anything on offense it will be Online.
 

foobahl

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Hard to know "potential" since circumstances play so much into that.
I'll give a go as I see it. I tend to like smart QBs who understand their offense and what the defense is trying to do against him.
That way he knows, with time and experience, how best to attack the defense.

Tier 1 All Pro careers
Tie between the first 3.
01. Josh Allen (2018 1st Rd)
01. Justin Herbert (2020 1st Rd)
01. Joe Burrow (2020 1st Rd)
04. Mac Jones (2021 1st Rd)
05. Trevor Lawrence (2021 1st Rd) (Skills are there but is his brain and drive?)

Tier 2 Good starter caliber. Needs complementary players built around his skill with a scheme to fit.
06. Lamar Jackson (2018 1st Rd)
07. Trey Lance (2021 1st Rd)
08. Justin Fields (2021 1st Rd)
09. Kyler Murray (2019 1st Rd)
10. Zach Wilson (2021 1st Rd)
11. Tua Tagovailoa (2020 1st Rd)

Tier 3 Starter Caliber. But won't get you where you want to go. Bridge QBs in my mind.
12. Baker Mayfield (2018 1st Rd)
13. Jalen Hurts (2020 2nd Rd)
14. Davis Mills (2021 3rd Rd)
15. Drew Lock (2019 2nd Rd)

Tier 4 Backup QB for most teams
16. Kyle Trask (2021 2nd Rd) (Almost put Trask into Tier 3 but he hasn't shown enough for that yet)
17. Jordan Love (2020 1st Rd) (Really unsure about this guy)
18. Daniel Jones (2019 1st Rd)
19. Sam Darnold (2018 1st Rd)
20. Mason Rudolph (2018 3rd Rd) (ROFL)
21. Josh Rosen (2018 1st Rd)
22. Dwayne Haskins (2019 1st Rd)
Where would you put Tyler Huntley?
 

chevss454

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Where would you put Tyler Huntley?

I'd put him in Tier 4 for now. He doesn't run as well as Lamar but he throws a little better. I know nothing of his ability to read defenses. That's the key for me.
 

sg14

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Where would you put Tyler Huntley?
Interesting player, heard that he will be in high demand this FA season. Think
Baltimore did fine with him at QB. He was perfect as Lamar's backup. Be interesting to see where he goes this spring.
When watching him at Utah I found him to be annoying because I was rooting for the opposing team and all he did was make play after play.
There are some crappy QBs on the OP list. I would put Huntley at about #13. Huntley seems to know where to go with the ball, can't say that about all of them.
 
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