Is Mahomes the most dangerous person in the NFL?

[Giant Octopodes]

Now, now, hear me out. I know there's multiple sins I'm making here: I'm asking a stupid, loaded, and subjective question, and instead of basking in the continued glory of the greatest age of sports NE will ever see and endlessly crowing the praises of the undisputed GOATs still reigning supreme in the aftermath of the latest win, I'm referencing someone on another team in a potentially positive way, and someone who even worse was annoyingly overhyped the entire year long. I freely acknowledge that, and I apologize. But I think there's a conversation worth having regarding the future, a hidden nugget of wisdom buried in otherwise inane conversation, so I'm committing those sins anyway.

See, here are some of the best QBs in the NFL, with the age they'll be at the start of next season:

35+
Brady
Brees
Roethlisberger
Rivers
Rodgers

30+
Russel Wilson
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Matt Ryan
Matt Stafford
Kirk Cousins

25+
Dak Prescott
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo
Mitchell Trubisky

20+
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Jared Goff

NFL QBs are, on average, older than ever. And of those who are younger, they aren't particularly impressive. Of the QBs under 30, I don't think anyone would hesitate to say the year Mahomes had was better than what they would hope for in a career year from the rest of that class. In 5 years, when most of the 35+ crew has retired, and Russel Wilson and Cam Newton are not the running threats they once were, who are the top 5 QBs? Do you feel comfortable picking Anyone and not feeling like it's a total crapshoot, other than Mahomes and Luck? I think it's fair to call Mahomes a bright spot at the QB position, and unusually talented, especially considering the dearth of talent under 30 at QB in the NFL right now.

So that being said, when I ask if Mahomes is the "most dangerous", here's what I mean by it- in the worst case scenario, how much could they damage the league? If Brady went out tomorrow and retired saying he's got to worry about his health, a lot of people would say that makes sense. Being real, a lot of folks especially fans of other AFC teams would say it's about damn time. The only way Brady could hurt the league is with off the field stuff. If Brady went out tomorrow and killed 5 people, it would be terrible. It would devastate NE, and be a dark day for the world at large, and a lot of people would stop watching the NFL.

Yet, the NFL has survived players being murderers before. Brady is on the back 9 of his career. A lot of people don't like New England. And attention, press, and drama, can in many cases bring more attention to the league. The NFL would survive. Beyond that, such an event would be unimaginable, anyway.

On the other hand, if Mahomes played lights out again next year, and then Turned Down a 200 million dollar deal afterwards, saying "I've got to consider my health, and with all the research regarding CTE and such, I can't in good conscience participate in this sport any longer" and announced he was joining the NFL or NBA or something instead, I truly believe it could legitimately threaten the dominance of the NFL, sooner rather than later.

With so much of its talent aging out, the NFL needs bright young stars more than ever, and if arguably the most talented young QB, an electrifying player who is drawing viewers left and right based on the ratings of his games (be honest, if you list the top 5 games of the year, are both Chiefs games making the list?), turns away and worse yet joins another sport? A huge amount of the fanbase could be taken with him, and it could threaten the NFL as we know it. More than that, such an event would not be nearly as inconceivable.

So I ask, is Mahomes the individual who could do the most damage to the NFL, while also being the player that perhaps more than any other the NFL is relying on for the foreseeable future to draw in more viewers? As such, would it be fair to argue that his future is the one which can have the greatest impact on the future of the league as a whole?

 

[Hogfarmer]

Yes!

 

[sprocketboy]

Jared Goff played for crappy teams at Cal and somehow made himself relevant.


Jared Goff's Rams beat Patrick Mahomes' Chefs in prime time.


Jared Goff went to the Super Bowl, and had a bad game against maybe the best Patriots' defensive scheming in their storied Super Bowl history.


Anyone who thinks Jared Goff is broken ... doesn't get Jared Goff.


Roll on, you Bears.

 

[spacecrime]

I think it's fair to call Mahomes a bright spot at the QB position, and unusually talented

Here's where we disagree.

You could have said this about a ton of QBs in their first season and you'd have been wrong. This is what all the talking heads said about Dak Prescott his rookie year. The next best thing. 13-3 his rookie year and looked terrific doing it. Then defensive coordinators had film on him and he fell to earth.

Rothlesberger went 13-0 his rookie year. He is good, but never cracked the elite top five.

With Mahomes you are basing his future on a sample size of 8 games. The first half of one season. The second half he went 4-4, hardly a bright spot by any definition. QBs with a better than .500 career W-L ratio include Brian Hoyer and Mark Sanchez.

Will Mahomes be any good going forward? Could be. Probably better than Hoyer and Canchez, but odds are highly against being great. He wasn't nearly as good the second half of the season. Why?

Another couple of seasons will give a better look at him. Until then, ESPN and all the mediots need someone to hype. Next year with will be someone else. And then someone else again the following year.

In the meantime, at least until the 2019 season starts, we will hear about Mahomes until we want to stick ice picks into our ears. And rest assured, if he has a normal sophomore slump, pundits will abandon him in a heartbeat for the next great thing.

SQUIRREL!!! anyone?

As far as damaging the NFL by retiring, The NFL survived Barry Sanders leaving early. Dieter Brock played awesomely for one year and retired when the next best QBs in the league were Marino and Esiason and somehow the NFL survived. I thing the game will survive Mahomes if he quits or flames out.

 

[TommyD420]

Revisit this when the Chiefs go 7-9 next year.

 

[Hogfarmer]

Here's where we disagree.

You could have said this about a ton of QBs in their first season and you'd have been wrong. This is what all the talking heads said about Dak Prescott his rookie year. The next best thing. 13-3 his rookie year and looked terrific doing it. Then defensive coordinators had film on him and he fell to earth.

Rothlesberger went 13-0 his rookie year. He is good, but never cracked the elite top five.

With Mahomes you are basing his future on a sample size of 8 games. The first half of one season. The second half he went 4-4, hardly a bright spot by any definition. QBs with a better than .500 career W-L ratio include Brian Hoyer and Mark Sanchez.

Will Mahomes be any good going forward? Could be. Probably better than Hoyer and Canchez, but odds are highly against being great. He wasn't nearly as good the second half of the season. Why?

Another couple of seasons will give a better look at him. Until then, ESPN and all the mediots need someone to hype. Next year with will be someone else. And then someone else again the following year.

In the meantime, at least until the 2019 season starts, we will hear about Mahomes until we want to stick ice picks into our ears. And rest assured, if he has a normal sophomore slump, pundits will abandon him in a heartbeat for the next great thing.

SQUIRREL!!! anyone?

As far as damaging the NFL by retiring, The NFL survived Barry Sanders leaving early. Dieter Brock played awesomely for one year and retired when the next best QBs in the league were Marino and Esiason and somehow the NFL survived. I thing the game will survive Mahomes if he quits or flames out.

If you compare the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half you'll see that Mahomes put up 24 TDs/ 6 int,s and 2571 yards the 2nd half. That's almost exactly half his years stats of 50/12/5097

Chiefs were 5-3 the 2nd half not 4-4

He did his part . The defense was the reason they took 3 losses and they lost those 3 by a total of 11 points.

 

[O.Z.O.]

If you compare the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half you'll see that Mahomes put up 24 TDs/ 6 int,s and 2571 yards the 2nd half. That's almost exactly half his years stats of 50/12/5097

Chiefs were 5-3 the 2nd half not 4-4

He did his part . The defense was the reason they took 3 losses and they lost those 3 by a total of 11 points.

I think he's counting the playoffs in that number. That's something we do here.

Anyway, a more accurate depiction would be that after starting 9-1 your boys finished 3-3. They went 2-4 vs. playoff teams vs. the Pats 5-1. The Pats beat them twice.

Kermit and the boys are not yet ready for prime time.

 

[TylerD]

It's just too early to tell..... Did he have a great year? Absolutely!! Did Dak have a great year with Dallas 3 years back? Absolutely..... And then shit the bed completely the next season. I mentioned this in another thread, I have seen far too many qb's have a really good season and then follow it with supreme crap. Not just rookie qb's either..... Raiders thought they had the next Tom Brady and were set for years to come.... Now they want Carr off the team lmao. Hell even Rodgers for the Packers sucked horrendously this year. And people can defend him all they want, but he hasn't really done much of anything since his Super Bowl year and the year after when they went 15-1. A lot of average seasons after, and no more Super Bowls to show for.

Mahomes was very good this season, nothing will take that away from him. If he does that again this season, I will give him a lot of respect as he likely will be one of the best qb's in the NFL. But I never get hung up on a qb in one single season. I personally think the Chiefs come back to Earth next season and finish 8-8 or 9-7 at best. All this discussion will stop completely if that happens. However if the Chiefs have another 12 plus win season and Mahomes has another good season I will be the first to say I was wrong.

 

[PatsFan09]

Take away all of his toys and then let us know. Name another QB who in his first starting year had the weapons that Kermit has.
When they’re gone, he’ll fall apart.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Yehoodi]

First off, to answer the title of thread, I do not think he is the most dangerous person in the NFL. There are too many players in the NFL for fans, and casual fans to follow. Brady (and NE) are loved and hated and bring a lot to the NFL for fans to love and hate, but when he retires, the NFL will still roll along, and would do the same if another QB where to retire.

As for someone to cheer for, a sport with star athletes needed, Mahomes will help. He has placed his stamp on the NFL even with just this one season. He does not need to continue to have over the top great years to be a marquee player in the NFL. Prescott, Wilson, and Luck for example have had average seasons and even missed the playoff but they are marquee players in the NFL. If Mahomes can perform like those guys, he will still be at the forefront of the NFL players.

Mahomes will also help as he is on a team that has not had a lot of success in a while and will bring fans in for this reason.

As for Mahomes moving forward, time will tell if he can maintain the level of the top 5 or so QBs in the NFL. He does not need to be the best every year to effect ratings imo.

As some have said in this thread and others, and as i have mentioned, time will tell if Mahomes can continue this years very high level of play once his contract kicks in and roster turnover.

 

[Yehoodi]

I think he's counting the playoffs in that number. That's something we do here.

Anyway, a more accurate depiction would be that after starting 9-1 your boys finished 3-3. They went 2-4 vs. playoff teams vs. the Pats 5-1. The Pats beat them twice.

Kermit and the boys are not yet ready for prime time.

I think the bold point is the key moving forward and if the team is able to win more games when more eyes are watching. Overall the team did not play well in those games and a good portion was due to the defense. If the D improves the question remains if Mahomes will maintain his level of performance in order to win.

With that said, with the regular season being a big portion of the schedule, folks can make a media impact even without being great in prime time.

Unless Mahomes does a Derek Carr 2.0, he will still be in the mix of fans wanting to watch.

As a side note, I am very curious to see how Mahomes and the Chiefs bounce back and go a full year without Hunt.

 

[foley11]

There is talk rampant in the press coming out of KC about signing Mahomes to a bank breaking record contract extension for Kermit. In one article I saw $200 Million extension was thrown around.


If history shows us anything, it shows us that the surest way to extinguish the bright light of an exciting player on his rookie contract, it is to make him the highest paid player at his position in the history of the league. Suddenly the pieces around him that helped him have success are headed out the door to greener, higher paying pastures because the club that signed the star can't afford to pay his supporting cast.


Simply talk to QB's named, Rodgers, Flacco, and Ryan about how much success they had after they got paid and their teams became a wasteland for having any depth on the roster.


I hope they give Kermit everything he deserves.

 

[TylerD]

First off, to answer the title of thread, I do not think he is the most dangerous person in the NFL. There are too many players in the NFL for fans, and casual fans to follow. Brady (and NE) are loved and hated and bring a lot to the NFL for fans to love and hate, but when he retires, the NFL will still roll along, and would do the same if another QB where to retire.

As for someone to cheer for, a sport with star athletes needed, Mahomes will help. He has placed his stamp on the NFL even with just this one season. He does not need to continue to have over the top great years to be a marquee player in the NFL. Prescott, Wilson, and Luck for example have had average seasons and even missed the playoff but they are marquee players in the NFL. If Mahomes can perform like those guys, he will still be at the forefront of the NFL players.

Mahomes will also help as he is on a team that has not had a lot of success in a while and will bring fans in for this reason.

As for Mahomes moving forward, time will tell if he can maintain the level of the top 5 or so QBs in the NFL. He does not need to be the best every year to effect ratings imo.

As some have said in this thread and others, and as i have mentioned, time will tell if Mahomes can continue this years very high level of play once his contract kicks in and roster turnover.

I think that is the point I am trying to make. I agree completely with you, that Mahomes doesn't have to put up identical numbers like this season. However Chiefs fans are making out like he will be the next Brady/Manning.... And I am not saying he won't.... He could be. But it is extremely hard to put together 11 plus win seasons and make playoffs every single year like Brady and Manning. A down year for Brady was 2005 and they still went 10-6 and made it to the second round of the playoffs. A down year for Peyton was 10-6 winning the division in 2010. Not many qb's can do this. Even the top QB's like Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, Rivers etc... miss the playoffs quite often. Rodgers has now missed the playoffs 3 times. Rivers has missed the playoffs more times than I can count. It is extremely difficult to consistently make playoffs and get double digit wins for your teams. It remains to be seen if Mahomes can do that. Will Mahomes be a decent QB in the NFL? Yes I think he will be.... Is he going to be a God like qb and lead his team to 12 plus wins every season.... Well that remains to be seen.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

6 rings.

Brady is an assassin.

 

[Jaric]

I think it's way too earlier in Mahomes career to make any kind of long term assessments, good or bad. He played great for most of last year and has a lot of potential.

That's about all I'm willing to say at the moment.

 

[TylerD]

6 rings.

Brady is an assassin.

Even aside from the Super Bowl rings, what Brady has managed to do with wins and losses is simply amazing. Him and Peyton Manning are a once in a life time..... Again not saying Mahomes can't do this..... But its just too hard to judge from one season.

Going back to the 2005 season, Brady has something like 182 wins to 55 losses. Peyton has 136 to 43 losses. And between the two there is 13 Super Bowl appearances in there. It's such a bold statement to make "Mahomes is the next Brady." Every team wants this no doubt..... But it's one thing to have one good season, it's another to consistently do this for the next decade or more.

 

[BostonTim]

I hope they give Kermit everything he deserves.

And half as much again for good measure?


Cheers

 

[Patriots71]

I think it's way too earlier in Mahomes career to make any kind of long term assessments, good or bad. He played great for most of last year and has a lot of potential.

That's about all I'm willing to say at the moment.

There are stages in QB careers. The first year starting is probably the most easy, because nobody has film on you and your expectations are low. Next comes the expecations, Oh well you did this last year and if you dont do that again then you are slipping. Then comes, the losing of players due to cap. Oh you like those receivers? Well here is a new set of receivers, then possibly coaching changes, injury, more expectations. etc etc. To get through all of that and still be going, then you are a great QB.

Also the biggest thing. When the Qb gets his 200 mil contract and the team goes to crap. See Aaron Rodgers, etc.

 

[grog]

The thing that impresses me most about Mahommes is his ability to make crazy athletic throws. But it is these throws that will eventually be his downfall. He throws the ball like a baseball shortstop, slinging it across his body. And then he makes those throws running to the right and flipping the ball across the field to the left side. If I recall, my coaches used to jump all over our QBs for trying to make that throw. Why? Because of the high probability the throw would be intercepted.

I think that unless Mahommes gets smarter, his eventual downfall will be Interceptions. He looks to be chance taker, and defenses will learn how to bait him into chances he shouldn't take.

I think he does have a high ceiling. He seems smart and very poised for a kid his age. It will be interesting to see how he does when the cast around him changes too. He is surrounded by a ton of talent on that team.

I think the guy missing from your list might that might have as much upside is Baker Mayfield. That kid seems to be a winner.

 

[TylerD]

The thing that impresses me most about Mahommes is his ability to make crazy athletic throws. But it is these throws that will eventually be his downfall. He throws the ball like a baseball shortstop, slinging it across his body. And then he makes those throws running to the right and flipping the ball across the field to the left side. If I recall, my coaches used to jump all over our QBs for trying to make that throw. Why? Because of the high probability the throw would be intercepted.

I think that unless Mahommes gets smarter, his eventual downfall will be Interceptions. He looks to be chance taker, and defenses will learn how to bait him into chances he shouldn't take.

I think he does have a high ceiling. He seems smart and very poised for a kid his age. It will be interesting to see how he does when the cast around him changes too. He is surrounded by a ton of talent on that team.

I think the guy missing from your list might that might have as much upside is Baker Mayfield. That kid seems to be a winner.

Agreed! Baker impressed me a ridiculous amount this season. Fans in Cleveland definitely have something to finally be excited about. Could be the same as Mahomes though, a good season.... Only to follow it up with crap, who knows. But Baker was damn good this year. I was actually happy for Browns fans even though they didn't make playoffs. If he keeps up that high level of play The Browns will be a playoff contender as soon as next season.