Game of the Week
New York Jets 23 at New England Patriots 30
Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 4 (20-16)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (46-71 at 4QC and 61-72 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Tom Brady (36-29 at 4QC and 48-31
overall 4QC/GWD record)
Coming into the week, the Jets and Patriots were the only two offenses in the NFL that had yet to have a 4QC/GWD opportunity this season. That changed on Sunday in what was a very competitive game that lived up to the hype for a change.
Rex Ryan's big mouth has been replaced by a more reserved Todd Bowles, but the results were still the same: outcoached by Bill Belichick.
Seriously, name another team who would scoff at offensive balance and attack a defense with 61 dropbacks and five handoffs. True,
Dion Lewis was out, but even if he had played, the only difference probably would have been more passes to him and fewer to
Brandon LaFell, who dropped six balls in his season debut. Yes, a few were barely above the ground and a couple more were defensed, but that was a brutal game for the wide receiver. The Patriots respected the Jets'
No. 1 run defense so much that they handed the ball off five times for 1 net yard.
Tom Brady finished as the leading rusher with 15 yards on four carries.
New England approached this game in a very similar fashion to the way it played Baltimore and Seattle in the playoffs last year.
Against the Ravens, the Patriots picked on a depleted secondary with 51 passes and seven handoffs for 14 yards.
Against Seattle, New England eventually abandoned the run (19 carries for 60 yards) and continued to dink and dunk, avoiding the best cornerback on the field (Richard Sherman) and shredding the weakest link (Tharold Simon). On Sunday, the Patriots mostly avoided
Darrelle Revis and anything deep outside the numbers, but what the Jets did a strong job of was tackling. The Patriots averaged a season-low 3.4 YAC per completion.
The Jets did a lot of things well, but they were not going to match New England's bold strategy of relentlessly attacking the defense's weakness. For New England this season, that is the secondary. You have to attack it, but the Jets still handed the ball off 24 times for 60 yards because that's what their offense is about. Even though
Chris Ivory was not 100 percent, he still got 17 carries for 41 yards.
Ryan Fitzpatrick did well to not throw an interception, but he really should have been allowed to throw more than 19 targets to
Eric Decker and
Brandon Marshall if the Jets were going to score enough points to win this one.
Still the Jets led 17-16 and were driving to start the fourth quarter. On third-and-7, Fitzpatrick's back-shoulder pass to Marshall was dropped on what would have been a touchdown. I wonder if NFL Films got Fitzpatrick's reaction to this one. He was
dumbfounded over a much more difficult Marshall touchdown caught in Week 6 against Washington. This one was a big miss, and once the field goal went through to put the Jets up 20-16, the New England comeback felt inevitable.
People always say "you have to score touchdowns and be aggressive to beat the Patriots in New England" and they are not lying. I have the proof. Teams that attempt a fourth-quarter field goal in Foxboro when the game is within three points either way are now 1-13 since 2001. Only the 2008 Jets won, but that was a little different since their 34-yard field goal came in overtime.
You have to be aggressive in New England. Adding a field goal to stretch your lead out to four to six points is just opening yourself up to allowing a game-winning touchdown drive. Kicking a field goal in a tied game leaves Brady an opportunity to beat you with a touchdown. (Isn't that right,
Jason Garrett and Rob Ryan?) You need to turn that 3-point lead into a 10-point lead. You need to break a tie with a touchdown to keep a real advantage. Some of these games are not directly applicable to this, because
the 2005 Bills actually built a 16-7 lead before losing 21-16 in ESPN's hilariously announced (
see this parody)
Tedy Bruschi return game. Teams such as the
2004 Colts (Mike Vanderjagt) and
2011 Ravens (Billy Cundiff) missed late field goals that would have forced overtime. However, you could always point to
Edgerrin James fumbling on first down at the 1-yard line with 3:43 left and
Lee Evans not hanging onto that ball in the end zone as to why those teams were still losing in the final seconds.
You have to execute, because you expect the Patriots will when given their chance. The Jets still almost made the stop, thanks to a 7-yard loss by
LeGarrette Blount on a rare run. Maybe that's why the Patriots never tried to run in this one. On third-and-17, Brady threw his longest pass of the day, a 26-yarder, and
Julian Edelman was there for a sliding catch.
Danny Amendola finished the drive with a tough 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:16 left.
Fitzpatrick is 1-5 at 4QC opportunities against the Patriots, with four interceptions on those drives. On third-and-7, he threw a deep ball to
Devin Smith that was not even close and the Jets punted with 5:32 left. That was not high-percentage offense.
The Patriots stuck to their bold pass-happy strategy in a situation where almost any team would have tried running the ball. But when you are running nothing but high-percentage plays, why not keep throwing? This was refreshing to see in the NFL. Can you imagine another team throwing incomplete passes on first and second down outside of the two-minute warning and in long field goal range? The Patriots did not care, because the Jets weren't able to stop the trio of Edelman, Amendola and Rob Gronkowski.
Brady continued to throw after the two-minute warning, setting up a second-and-3 at the New York 22. For some reason, Bowles was still holding onto his three timeouts. He
defended his strategy on Monday, and had some valid points about the earlier plays not presenting the opportunity to call timeout, but he should have used one before second-and-3. Two stopped gains there still would have left Bowles with about 65 seconds and one timeout, down 26-20. Is that really better than having about 1:40 and no timeouts? If Bowles was so worried the Patriots would convert on second down to "waste" his timeout, does he not realize by not calling one that a conversion there would have likely left the Jets with 25 seconds to score a touchdown? That's basically hopeless. If Bowles' hope was for a second-down incompletion, then he called one of the worst defensive plays imaginable. How do you rush seven and leave Gronkowski completely wide open for a walk-in touchdown? And that's just a little reminder of why the Patriots have owned this division for 15 years.
Sure, the Jets managed a 55-yard field goal and actually recovered an onside kick, but only 14 seconds remained. A short pass over the middle was risky given the time, and sure enough the Jets botched the spike with one second left. Marshall was not set, resulting in a game-ending 10-second runoff. A Hail Mary attempt from the New England 37 would have been a great ending to this game, but as is usually the case, the game ended with a frustrated opponent leaving the Patriots' field.
Since 2001, teams are 1-47 (.021) at 4QC opportunities in New England.
GO CAN of RAID!!!!!!
