Looking at the Patriots - 2021

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Remember that story about Belichick showing the team a film of a horse race and he stopped it in the middle and asked the guys which horse won. Of course, the point was that a horse came
from the back of the pack and won going away. That's how I feel about projecting wins now. The race hasn't even started yet. Crunch all the numbers you want, but the data is incomplete. We're still building this team and should have a slightly clearer picture next Sunday, but there are way too many unsettled issues for me to want to guess at a win total in April.

I like to watch preseason games to get a better feel for where we're at and think those games can give more of an indication that many believe, but there is no way in hell I'm going to listen to anybody tell me that the New England Patriots are destined to be a .500 team based on the shitshow that was 2020.
 
It's like every year, when we get to Thanksgiving, we have a very good idea of what the Patriots in any given year are.

Every year we see teams blasting out of the traps, winning through September and into October, going 5/6-0 etc and the pundits always overreact. And then suddenly they just fall away. Sept/Oct are almost write-offs, you can tell nothing from what happens there, even though that's half the regular season. NFL coaches are razor sharp and learn every quickly so a hot team in Sept/Oct can be figured out by late Oct-Dec and very often fall away. Unless they are exceptionally good with a varied offense and complimentary defense.

Look at the Steelers last year, they went 11-0 and then just fell away quite dramatically.
 
I don't see Bill going for Julio Jones, does anyone here? I can see Gruden going for him for sure. From Peter King's FMIA today.

Ez5f89jWQAAjm_F


profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

2021 NFL Mock Draft for Football Morning In America - Peter King, NBC Sports

Peter King's Football Morning In America begins with the 2021 NFL Mock Draft, predicting all the picks for Thursday's first round.
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
 
Roberto71 said:
I don't see Bill going for Julio Jones, does anyone here? I can see Gruden going for him for sure. From Peter King's FMIA today.

Ez5f89jWQAAjm_F


profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

2021 NFL Mock Draft for Football Morning In America - Peter King, NBC Sports

Peter King's Football Morning In America begins with the 2021 NFL Mock Draft, predicting all the picks for Thursday's first round.
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
Click to expand...
That Peter King is right on top of things. He doesn't think a June trade will involve any picks from this April's draft.
 
Roberto71 said:
I don't see Bill going for Julio Jones, does anyone here? I can see Gruden going for him for sure. From Peter King's FMIA today.

Ez5f89jWQAAjm_F


profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

2021 NFL Mock Draft for Football Morning In America - Peter King, NBC Sports

Peter King's Football Morning In America begins with the 2021 NFL Mock Draft, predicting all the picks for Thursday's first round.
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
Click to expand...

I could see them getting rid of Jones solely because of cap purposes. They can draft one of the highly touted receivers this year, they have a very good #2 in Calvin Ridley, and the team is going nowhere. The issue is a team being interested in taking Jones' 20+ million cap hit.
 
Somehow I don't think that you would have much of a future in the distressed assets investment industry..."that asset is distressed so it has zero value!!" How very insightful.
 
Why bother with receivers when your QB can’t throw? Cam is barely over .500 in his win percentage for his career. He’s been around a long time and had decent coaches. I don’t understand this optimism. As a a fanbase we should be putting on pressure for a change.
I’ve never hated Cam though. I love his attitude and that the players love him. I’ve always said that. It’s just that over his career win wise he’s average. At this late stage he can’t get it done.
I definitely can’t stand Belichick on any level, at all.
Even if we had a QB, a true number one WR isn’t a great investment with what they command price wise. Better to have 3 or four slightly better than average guys. And how does Julio, who’s 55 in NFL years help a team that’s in rebuild mode?
 
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rivshark86 said:
Why bother with receivers when your QB can’t throw? Cam is barely over .500 in his win percentage for his career. He’s been around a long time and had decent coaches. I don’t understand this optimism. As a a fanbase we should be putting on pressure for a change.
I’ve never hated Cam though. I love his attitude and that the players love him. I’ve always said that. It’s just that over his career win wise he’s average. At this late stage he can’t get it done.
I definitely can’t stand Belichick on any level, at all.
Even if we had a QB, a true number one WR isn’t a great investment with what they command price wise. Better to have 3 or four slightly better than average guys. And how does Julio, who’s 55 in NFL years help a team that’s in rebuild mode?
Click to expand...
sCam is just a placeholder...I don't like him either, but, he's supposed to be the rookie QB's mentor and never got paid that much. The team will always need good WR's.
 
SkiptoMyLou said:
I could see them getting rid of Jones solely because of cap purposes. They can draft one of the highly touted receivers this year, they have a very good #2 in Calvin Ridley, and the team is going nowhere. The issue is a team being interested in taking Jones' 20+ million cap hit.
Click to expand...

Well, $5M of that has already been paid by Atlanta as a signing bonus. He's owed $15M for this year. The cap hits are atrocious for Atlanta.
Atlanta is begging someone to take him post June 1 since Atlanta only has a $7.75M cap hit for '21. (If they release him before June 1 they take a $40M cap hit in 2021 and if they trade him before June 1 his cap hit is $23M; they won't do either.)

Per Spotrac
A release after June 1: 2021 Dead Cap: $25,050,000 2022 Dead Cap: $15,500,000 2021 Cap Savings: $-2,000,000
A trade after June 1: 2021 Dead Cap: $7,750,000 2022 Dead Cap: $15,500,000 2021 Cap Savings: $15,300,000

Their only real option is a trade designated as being after June 1.

A team trading for him inherits his non-guaranteed salary of $15M for '21 and $11M for '22. Not bad for a proven WR1 but that can be renegotiated, too. IF he is healthy. And that's a Big IF with Julio who only played 9 games last year and it seems like he's always nursing one injury or another. Megatron retired at 30; at 32 Julio is close to the end and this could be a 1 year signing for him. I'm told he considered retirement for this year but decided to come back. Sounds like a 1 year rental to me.

The thought also occurs that Julio is doing Atlanta a favor by coming back for '21 so they don't take that massive $40M cap hit.
Health and desire are all important bc of the above.

For reference, BB paid 30 yr old Moss $5M for his deal in '07 and got one helluva ROI. ($9M/year over 3 years total)
 
Jones had a down year in 2020, but he was a Pro Bowl player in 2019, with 99 catches in 15 games, playing on a so-so Falcons team that started out 1-7, but finished up 7-9.

A lot of players didn't achieve their normal numbers in 2020 - some will bounce back in 2021. I could see BB taking a chance on Jones, if the trade and salary details can be worked out and BB is convinced that Jones is all-in on the 2021 season.
 
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rivshark86 said:
Why bother with receivers when your QB can’t throw? Cam is barely over .500 in his win percentage for his career. He’s been around a long time and had decent coaches. I don’t understand this optimism. As a a fanbase we should be putting on pressure for a change.
I’ve never hated Cam though. I love his attitude and that the players love him. I’ve always said that. It’s just that over his career win wise he’s average. At this late stage he can’t get it done.
I definitely can’t stand Belichick on any level, at all.
Even if we had a QB, a true number one WR isn’t a great investment with what they command price wise. Better to have 3 or four slightly better than average guys. And how does Julio, who’s 55 in NFL years help a team that’s in rebuild mode?
Click to expand...

Odd to follow a team where the most decorated HC in the team (and the league for that matter) is someone you can't stand. Would you prefer if instead of BB it were, say, Jeff Fisher. You strike me as that type. :coffee:
 
SkiptoMyLou said:
Odd to follow a team where the most decorated HC in the team (and the league for that matter) is someone you can't stand. Would you prefer if instead of BB it were, say, Jeff Fisher. You strike me as that type. :coffee:
Click to expand...
BB not going anywhere. He can just deal with BB & Cam this season . Join others rooting for Brady & Gronk in Tampa Bay.
 
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