Just to demonstrate how absolutely asinine and mythical the concept of a "ceiling" is for a player:
When someone says Mac Jones' ceiling is Andy Dalton, or Kirk Cousins, or whomever, they are NOT comparing Mac to Dalton, Cousins, etc, as they were at Mac's stage in their respective careers; they are NOT comparing rookie Dalton, Cousins, etc, to rookie Mac. Rather, they're comparing Mac right now to Dalton/Cousins right now, using the totality of an 8, 10, 12 year career (what a player's net career production is) in comparison to Mac's rookie season. Dalton's "ceiling" isn't a "ceiling" -- it's the outcome of his career. Dalton isn't a mediocre, middling QB because of his "ceiling" -- he's a mediocre, middling QB because he didn't play at a high level for a lot of his career. We cannot know what the outcome of Mac's career will be because it hasn't fully occurred yet. It's comparing apples and oranges. Either compare potential against potential, or production against production, but using the net sum career production of a player who has been in the league for 10+ years to project another player's potential is fundamentally flawed.
Another example of how stupid this "ceiling" stuff is: Josh Allen (using the terms laid out here) has always had a high "ceiling" since he entered the league. He has incredible physical tools, a strong arm, and some athleticism. Despite this high "ceiling" that has existed for all of his career, he's largely sucked until very recently. 2020/2021 were steps in the right direction, highlighted by two masterclasses against NE the most recent two times they played (my gut says those were outliers to a certain extent, but that's neither here nor there). Allen's ceiling was completely irrelevant until he actually started playing well. Despite his "ceiling", he sucked, until he didn't ... and he did not stop sucking because he all of a sudden had this magical moment of achieving his "ceiling" -- he stopped sucking because he started making better decisions with the ball and executed some incredibly accurate throws. Specific to his games against NE, he was (in part) so phenomenal because (for the first time that I've seen) he demonstrated patience and was willing to consistently/regularly check the ball down over the middle and in the flats, exposing NE's poor ILBs, which then opened up stuff down the field (again, Allen also made some incredibly accurate throws in those games, but his patience in softening up the defense opened some of those up).
So, again, "ceiling" is irrelevant; it's a myth, a hypothetical potentiality based on incomplete information, and has no actual bearing on what transpires on the field. It's a meaningless idea. All that matters is how a given player performs/executes on the field over the totality of their playing career. Really, Brady should be the ultimate example that sitting here discussing a player's "ceiling" is really stupid and meaningless. How one can watch his career arc and simultaneously buy into the idea that QBs have a "ceiling" is beyond me. Never thought I could bring myself to root for KC, but here we are.
When someone says Mac Jones' ceiling is Andy Dalton, or Kirk Cousins, or whomever, they are NOT comparing Mac to Dalton, Cousins, etc, as they were at Mac's stage in their respective careers; they are NOT comparing rookie Dalton, Cousins, etc, to rookie Mac. Rather, they're comparing Mac right now to Dalton/Cousins right now, using the totality of an 8, 10, 12 year career (what a player's net career production is) in comparison to Mac's rookie season. Dalton's "ceiling" isn't a "ceiling" -- it's the outcome of his career. Dalton isn't a mediocre, middling QB because of his "ceiling" -- he's a mediocre, middling QB because he didn't play at a high level for a lot of his career. We cannot know what the outcome of Mac's career will be because it hasn't fully occurred yet. It's comparing apples and oranges. Either compare potential against potential, or production against production, but using the net sum career production of a player who has been in the league for 10+ years to project another player's potential is fundamentally flawed.
Another example of how stupid this "ceiling" stuff is: Josh Allen (using the terms laid out here) has always had a high "ceiling" since he entered the league. He has incredible physical tools, a strong arm, and some athleticism. Despite this high "ceiling" that has existed for all of his career, he's largely sucked until very recently. 2020/2021 were steps in the right direction, highlighted by two masterclasses against NE the most recent two times they played (my gut says those were outliers to a certain extent, but that's neither here nor there). Allen's ceiling was completely irrelevant until he actually started playing well. Despite his "ceiling", he sucked, until he didn't ... and he did not stop sucking because he all of a sudden had this magical moment of achieving his "ceiling" -- he stopped sucking because he started making better decisions with the ball and executed some incredibly accurate throws. Specific to his games against NE, he was (in part) so phenomenal because (for the first time that I've seen) he demonstrated patience and was willing to consistently/regularly check the ball down over the middle and in the flats, exposing NE's poor ILBs, which then opened up stuff down the field (again, Allen also made some incredibly accurate throws in those games, but his patience in softening up the defense opened some of those up).
So, again, "ceiling" is irrelevant; it's a myth, a hypothetical potentiality based on incomplete information, and has no actual bearing on what transpires on the field. It's a meaningless idea. All that matters is how a given player performs/executes on the field over the totality of their playing career. Really, Brady should be the ultimate example that sitting here discussing a player's "ceiling" is really stupid and meaningless. How one can watch his career arc and simultaneously buy into the idea that QBs have a "ceiling" is beyond me. Never thought I could bring myself to root for KC, but here we are.
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. It's your job to build the forum into the way you want to see it, not mine. I just wanted to make one last entreaty.
