Miami Christmas Thoughts

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Before I post I hope everyone here had an enjoyable Christmas. The games on Saturday certainly helped (and even a Knicks win on Sunday :D).

Starting with McCourty. A huge, huge issue was the safety help, for sure. He got beat deep early in the 1st largely because there was no initial safety help, and by the time Sergio was able to come over it was far too late. The same thing happened to him in the 2nd, as Patricia or BB trusted the DBs to stay tight 1 on 1 on their man. Devin got scorched on 1 on 1 coverage with absolutely 0 safety help. It was a streak route from Marshall, and Devin had no business staying on him on single coverage, IMO.

McCourty made a few plays in the 2nd half and in the 2nd quarter and even caught his first INT. I believe he missed/dropped an INT in the 1st half as well. You're going to read a lot of anti-McCourty comments that still linger out of the depths of the game thread and it will appear as though McCourty was absolutely horrendous and worse than he was in week 1 to someone who didn't see the game, but IMO, he wasn't all bad. He wasn't "good" by any means, but not nearly as bad as week 1 or as people proclaim.

The DL played well this game, with Shaun Ellis coming up big and making plays. I noted in the game thread that this was probably the first time this season that I've noticed Ellis on the field, as he was in on 2 sacks and made a couple of good stops on the ground. He seemed to be fired up all game, but unfortunately I didn't take notice too much in the latter part of the 2nd half. Brandon Deaderick was also solid in the same respect, and Kyle Love continues to improve next to Wilfork. Fine performance by the DL on Saturday, I think.

Mayo and Fletcher were great, and Fletcher seems to be getting faster and faster with each game. He shot the gap and was the master of guessing the opposing snap count. IIRC, he got into the backfield and missed a tackle but he was still very good. To have Fletcher and Spikes as LBs against the run sounds like a lethal duo.

Ridley was great. I noticed that BOB called a lot of outside runs with BJGE, and then with Ridley. Not sure how many times it will take BOB to realize that BJGE does not have the speed or agility to successfully execute the outside runs, but Ridley was phenomenal with them. He was able to make his decisions quickly, cut into the right holes and power up field. Woodhead was also good.

2nd half OL was a lot better than the 1st half because as Chevs said, they came out in spread formations so that they could better dictate the pressure/defense. Scar did a great job making adjustments at the half and great job getting his OL to keep focus.

Thank God the team got lit up at the half because they deserved it. The offense looked like the way they did against the Giants/Cowboys but after the half they came out firing on all cylinders. A disappointment as the offense played closest to 60 minutes last week at Denver, but they came back and came back strong.
 
O_P_T said:
MHO, the two biggest questions from this game are

Light
Mankins

Yes, I know it's 3 odd weeks till a playoff game, but if they are not healthy and ready to go that would be a big problem.
Click to expand...

Meh.

I thought they played better once Mankins went out. :shrug:
 
I thought there was a lot of interesting things going on in this game. Pats came in attacking on defense playing mostly even front one gap defenses with occasional odd fronts and getting up the field. They run blitzed Fletcher a lot as well sometimes getting a big play and sometimes taking him out of position.

I thought the defensive line played pretty well, especially considering the configuration was new. Deadrick had his ups and downs. He was very active and worked all game long which was great to see. He generated pressure and made tackles down the field. He had trouble when playing run force a few times as he was not disciplined and allowed Bush to pull him inside which gave Bush the bounce. As the game wore on they starting using more safety force. Ellis was pretty active generating pressure and working hard against the run from the backside. He also made a nice play against the sweep the Dolphins were running all night getting around the lead puller to tackle Bush in the backfield when his upfield running lane was squeezed inside by Kyle Love. Love was consistently solid against the run defeating some doubles. He got moved here and there though. I thought this was the best I've seen Vince play in awhile. He was very consistent making a lot of plays in the run game and setting up more than one stunt to generate pressure. Silvestro saw quite a few snaps generating pressure on his first snap at DE, lining up as an inside rusher and trying to be active against the rush. He was knocked around a bit but is a fighter.

The LB corps had it's ups and downs. Fletcher had a fine game playing the run well and generating pressure on a couple of beautiful blitz calls. He was very good inserting against the Fins' lead blockers (on one play getting under an ISO block to stop Bush in the hole, and made a great play reading a sweep and attacking under the second puller to stop Bush behind the LOS. He brings life and excitement to this defense. There was a reason BB kept him off the IR all those weeks. He is a play maker.

Niko had a subdued role being used as a run force guy and as a jammer and low zone player against the pass. He was asked to do some lunch pail stuff and he did it for the most part. A few times he should have re-routed receivers and didn't letting them get down the field for big plays. Sometimes he's just not athletic enough to get the jam but there are times he could re-route the receiver and just doesn't.

Mayo continues to disappoint me. He made some great plays in the game but he also gets caught standing around a lot, especially against the run. He played better this week than he did against Denver but his run fits were bad as he kept trying to mirror Bush bailing out on his gap allowing Bush to cut and go. On one side you have Fletcher getting his fits and on the other Mayo is all over the place. A guy like Bush can make you look silly if you're undisciplined. He did make some stops but he was also responsible for too many good Bush runs IMO. On Miami's last TD before the half, he was tasked with walling off their TE to prevent him getting under the coverage across the formation. He jammed the TE but didn't wall him allowing him to cross under Digbo. Mayo was visibly frustrated after the TD but he needs to look in the mirror. Dig is a serviceable back-up doing his best but he's not a top echelon safety by any means. Help the guy out.

Mayo did have an impact sack on a beautiful blitz from 0 Man Patricia called on a second and long and he also had a fantastic play in coverage that led to the Tuck rule situation we saw in the second half when Moore had to pull up on his throw. The Pats showed man free coverage on 3rd & long from which they had been bringing pressure. The Fins called a mesh play to create a rub to free up a crossing receiver. The Pats didn't blitz but instead Robbed the low middle with Mayo who read the mesh and disrupted both the primary and secondary receiver destroying the rub and killing the pattern forcing Moore to pull the ball down.

The secondary had it's ups and downs. As I said, Dig is doing his best but he's not a play maker. He's adequate. Chung can't get healthy soon enough. The Pats ask Dig to do some things he's not capable of like covering Reggie Bush one on one on a blitz situation (Fletch was in for a near sack but Dig couldn't stick with Bush giving Moore an outlet--hardly surprising). The Pats also had Sean Ellis cover Bush later on in the game on the play when Mayo sacked Moore. That could have been interesting.

McCourty made some plays and gave up some plays. He is being asked to do a lot of one on one coverage against wide outs while BB & Patricia play games underneath him. He had to defend a Curl by himself (he stripped Marshall of the ball after he bobbled it) when Dig was involved in a brackett underneath on the TE. He was also alone on another long pass to Marshall when Patricia sat Dig down low as a "rat in the hole" which is a technique where a DB sits low opposite a certain player to rob him of a crossing route. The Pats were expecting Bess to cross and sat Dig in the hole but got a different look which occupied the MOF safety and left McCourty one on one outside. The long throw outside when McCorty failed to get turned around was a check at the line by Moore. There were two plays called in the huddle, Moore saw McCourty one on one with Marshall and called out "Alert" checking to the singled up throw to Marshall. McCourty was fantastic against the run. The Fins cracked the Pats' run force numerous times and McCourty did a great job as the secondary force replacing the cracked force to make plays on the LOS.

Arrington had his usual decent game. People don't throw on him much but he does get to make plays here and there as he moves around. One interesting thing he was doing in this game was showing soft coverage with one leverage, dropping with that leverage and then changing his leverage after the receiver read him. Moore pulled the ball down a couple times after Arrington did this because the receiver was seeing and reacting to one thing and getting another.

Sergio is Sergio. He's a back-up guy trying to get it down but's he doesn't have the jump to take away one route, read the throw and react to a different route like top safeties do. He did get over the top of one route and made a few tackles in the run game but he is who he is. He was taken out of the game for the end of one series and the start of another after a poor attempted tackle against Reggie Bush in the alley. He dived at his ankles missing poorly and was taken out in favor of Ventrone until it was time to blitz.

Much of the defense's early problems were a matter of poor execution and mismatches. Poor run force by Deadrick, poor fits by Mayo, Bush and Moore making some plays to take advantage of mismatches. The Pats got pretty exotic in the second half disguising coverages, attacking Gaps and bringing heat. As disappointing as they appeared at times, there are some signs of progress with this defense.

Offensively, things got off to a bad start and then went downhill from there. Loosing Light and then Mankins effectively eliminated a huge part of the team's game plan as they came in looking to work the three TE package in this game. In the long run the OL performed better than anyone had a right to expect. They moved the ball well on the ground initially but kept putting themselves in poor down and distance situations that they couldn't overcome. Some of that was the OL, some of it was the RBs and some of it was Brady.

Early on, we saw Woody give up a sack when he blocked the man Mankins was blocking on a three man strong-side pass rush. To be fair though, Mankins was initially confused which put Woodhead in a bind. Brady has to take the heat on the bad pass to Welk under pressure against the double A-Gap blitz. Bennie picked up the first blitzer but Connolly missed the second. Gronk read this right and went hot for Brady but Tom didn't take the hot throw and tried to hit Welk to no avail. He had faith in Connolly but man the heat was on. Brady checked Gronk into the protection a bunch of times which after awhile Miami attacked getting a hit on Brady after Cameron Wake cut under Gronk. There were some one on one losses by the OL as well. Odrick beat Solder for a pressure leading to a Brady run and Wake beat Cannon when Cannon gave up on the deep rush. Early on, Taylor beat Solder when Solder was in Max pro from the TE position.

The run blocking by the OL wasn't too bad. They had problems early dealing with Miami's safeties who they were trying to crack without success. Later in the game, Branch and Hernandez started getting the cracks giving Ridley room to run. Dansby and Burnett played very well in the first half against both the run and the pass but Burnett slowed down noticeably after getting dinged and Dansby was less effective after the Pats switched things up in the second half.

Some of the changes the Pats made to get going in the second have were to use an empty package that didn't feature a running back. Rather than the set that usually features Woody or Ridley (which was used in this game too) they came out with a set featuring five true receivers. A real nice wrinkle we saw (built on from last week) was the use of Hernandez as a RB both running the ball and running routes from the backfield. This is a fantastic development as the Pats can go no huddle and still run the ball or go six and seven man protections without switching groups forcing the defense to keep their empty group on the field. This lead to Hernandez running a route out of the backfield against an LB, a colossal mismatch. This group also allowed the Pats to go extended no-huddle with Ocho on the field allowing him to make an important and fantastic catch.

BOB also switched up his protections making heavy use of a hot read system that just killed the Fins the entire second half as Brady hit Welk again and again when the Fins blitzed. The Fins did some interesting stuff that worked (a double coverage against Welk from a high safety spot which jarred a throw loose was successful) and a play where they tried to bait Brady into a hot throw (when Brady hit Welk down the field for a huge throw) that didn't. After a penalty put the Pats at 2nd and 15, the Fins tried to bait Brady into a hot throw to Gronk by putting Barnett on Welk and showing a dual safety look with a safety over the top of Welk. They Fire Zone Blitzed the backer aligned over Gronk who correctly read hot and sat down. The Fins rolled the Safeties, dropping one down to hit Gronk on the hot throw and leaving Burnett one on one with Welk who couldn't keep up. Brady and Welk weren't fooled reading the Fire Zone and killing on the seam down the field.

A few other things I noticed here and there. A goalline bracket Miami ran on Hernandez lead directly to Branch's TD when Davis got burned on a pivot route in one on one coverage. BOB ran the same inside concepts several times but swapped Hernandez and Welk. This once put Hernandez on Allan, who isn't physical enough to handle Ahern, for a nice pick-up. Welk ran an unreal route against Allan at 5:36 of the Fourth when he takes an inside release from the number 3 spot, sells a crossing route, squares Allan up by getting vertical then speed cuts out and stacks Allan for a wide open catch and long gain. Welk's route was a work of art.

I noticed that someone fell out of the stands and was injured just before Miami's third score before half-time. He was either into the egg nog early or got a little excited when the Pats' stopped Reggie on the Goalline. He fell out right after that play, the medics are there for the kick-off and have him boarded up and are wheeling him out just before Mesko's punt after the Pat's three and out. I've never seen anyone fall out of the stands before but I guess it happens.

I thought the overhead views of the practice fields were interesting. There are new landmarks on the two far fields that are not there during training camp. During camp, the landmarks we see are the numbers, the hash marks and the red go route lines which are three yards inside the boundary. The new landmarks are two lines inside the hashes on one end and outside them on the other end. There are also two lined boxes in the red zone. I'm guessing BB had these landmarks put in to help with their pass coverage drills as defenders use the existing landmarks and invisible mid-lines by formation to set up coverage. The boxes must be used as landmarks in their red zone pass coverage practice. The guys were probably having trouble getting on their landmarks so BB had them painted on the field for practice. Either that or the fields were painted to assist Ocho's learning of his coverage leverage sight adjustments. I'm guessing it's coverage related for several reasons but it's always possible it's Ocho related or special teams related.
 
That was such a great synopsis, I'm going to have to come back and read it again tomorrow, AWTE.

Thanks again!
 
Damn.

When I watch, I see Brady drop back and throw the ball. Then I wait until the cameras switch to a view of the receivers. Then, assuming they are on the correct guy, I hope he catches it.

Watching on the computer via some stream from Europe really sucks too.
 
AWTE, I look forward to your evaluation every week to put into perspective what I'm seeing on the field. Your explanations give me a new appreciation for in-game adjustments when you point out a chess move here and there that makes all the difference for ultimate success when all looks lost.

I'm so glad you point out visible progress with this defense that is now, finally, learning to disguise coverages effectively and beginning to play as a unit. Your evaluation is comforting to my lying eyes.
 
Thanks AWTE great as always!

~Dee~
 
Thanks all.

I found out what happened to the dude who "fell" out of the stands. Too much egg nog. He told his brother he was going to run out on the field and went over the wall. I guess he didn't realize it's like 8 feet high and landed on his head. Merry Christmas.
 
I hope he doesn't sue. I am sick to death of people who do dumbass things then sue everyone else like THEY are at fault.
 
AllWorldTE said:
I thought there was a lot of interesting things going on in this game.
Click to expand...


You analyze the game like no one else period. You investigate the practice fields, analyze the markings and determine the range of possibilities for which they are used. You analyze fans in the upper deck and their techniques for rapidly finding a better seat in the lower deck. You analyze the medics attending to the fans moving from upper to lower deck and the treatments being administered.


This here is some serious full service analysis. ROFL ROFL ROFL

Cheers, BostonTim
 
BostonTim said:
You analyze the game like no one else period. You investigate the practice fields, analyze the markings and determine the range of possibilities for which they are used. You analyze fans in the upper deck and their techniques for rapidly finding a better seat in the lower deck. You analyze the medics attending to the fans moving from upper to lower deck and the treatments being administered.


This here is some serious full service analysis. ROFL ROFL ROFL

Cheers, BostonTim
Click to expand...

What BT said.

AWTE, I'm glad you're on OUR side!
 
BostonTim said:
You analyze the game like no one else period. You investigate the practice fields, analyze the markings and determine the range of possibilities for which they are used. You analyze fans in the upper deck and their techniques for rapidly finding a better seat in the lower deck. You analyze the medics attending to the fans moving from upper to lower deck and the treatments being administered.


This here is some serious full service analysis. ROFL ROFL ROFL

Cheers, BostonTim
Click to expand...

Thanks Tim. I had never seen markings like that on a football field before and was intrigued. BB leaves no teaching tool unexplored.

I meant to talk about Marshall's 47 yard pick-up too. McCourty's failure to turn around to locate the ball was frustrating to everyone watching the game (including me!) but it is the technique he is being taught. The reason he didn't turn around there is because Marshall had leverage on him. If you lose leverage (you're not at least even w/the receiver) then the DBs are taught to read the receiver's eyes and attack his hands because the idea is that it's impossible to defend the outside ball by turning around unless you are at least even.

I was thinking about this and looked up an old Nick Saban interview I recalled from a few years ago where he talks about this using his terminology and teaching. He uses the phrase "in phase" and "out of phase" through the "Move zone" which is 14-18 yards deep. He teaches his guys to determine if they are in phase or not by reading the receiver's near number.

It's worth a look for anyone interested in what the Pat's are trying to get done there as I'm certain BB and Saban are teaching very similar techniques.

http://smartfootball.com/defense/nick-saban-schools-you-on-how-to-play-pass-coverage

Rather than wondering why McCourty doesn't turn around often on those throws left I'm wondering why he's loosing leverage so often?
 
AllWorldTE said:
Rather than wondering why McCoury doesn't turn around often on those throws I'm wondering why he's loosing leverage so often?
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Especially when he knows he doesn't often get solid S help over the top. :confused:
On that play, iirc, McCourty bit on Marshall's inside fake and responded late when Marshall broke long. I'd think McCourty would have learned his lesson by now and play for the deep ball first.
 
chevss454 said:
Especially when he knows he doesn't often get solid S help over the top. :confused:
On that play, iirc, McCourty bit on Marshall's inside fake and responded late when Marshall broke long. I'd think McCourty would have learned his lesson by now and play for the deep ball first.
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I don't recall an inside fake there but the threat alone could do what you're suggesting. McCourty was left all alone against Marshall frequently and the Fins did try some in-breaking routes with him earlier. McCourty may have been sitting on an in-breaking route or did get faked out and wasn't able to regain his leverage.

I think that BB has concluded that stopping Bess and Miami's TE's are more important than stopping Marshall. Based on this and the previous two games against Miami, I think that BB willingly gives up a few plays here and there to Marshall to gain in other areas. The Pats blitzed on the long throw to Marshall. Moore saw the five man rush coming and alerted to that throw. Sergio was playing centerfield over the top of Bess (and in no position to help McCourty) who I believe was trailed by Jones after going vertical. I'm betting it is one of BB's ol "if so and so has a big game we win" kind of things.
 
So AWTE, since I think many/most of us would trust your evaluations over the casual fan's, which Pats players do you see as most needing to be replaced/upgraded?

How about some FA candidates who you think would be good fits?

Thanx in advance.
 
chevss454 said:
Especially when he knows he doesn't often get solid S help over the top. :confused:
On that play, iirc, McCourty bit on Marshall's inside fake and responded late when Marshall broke long. I'd think McCourty would have learned his lesson by now and play for the deep ball first.
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Haven't we been giving Devin a hard time all year about allowing slants and in-cuts? Perhaps he is refining his game to better take those away and got caught?
 
The Gr8est said:
So AWTE, since I think many/most of us would trust your evaluations over the casual fan's, which Pats players do you see as most needing to be replaced/upgraded?

How about some FA candidates who you think would be good fits?

Thanx in advance.
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Well, I see what most see. Poor safety play, down seasons from McCourty, Wilfork & Mayo, No Ras-I so who knows what's he is about (BB obviously was very high on him in the game and a quarter he played). BB needs better one on one CBs to do much of what he's trying to do.

It's also tough for me to say as I don't see much NFL football during the year. I wonder just how much the injury situation has contributed to the poor defense. Earlier in the year, Chung was taking away TEs with help from Niko but now BB has to use two players to do it and there's no one on the active roster capable of taking away great slot receivers alone so the CBs are finding themselves one on one too often for their talents.

BB is doing an awful lot of game planning and moving of bodies to get a mix that just barely works.

The defense is made up of a bunch of "solid" guys but no superstars. Wilfork and Mayo should be but haven't played that way this year.

If I had a wish list I could fullfill, I'd like to see a dominant Defensive lineman who controls at least one side of the LOS, a fast cover backer who can really play (unlike Guyton) and a top free safety who can move around and make plays sideline to sideline. If I want to be greedy, an OLB upgrade over Niko wouldn't be bad either although he pretty decent. A great pass rusher sounds nice but those guys are rare and typically one dimensional.

You can't have all-stars at every position so a DL/S/Cover backer would be about as much as I could ask for for new personnel. A return to form for Mayo/Wilfork/McCourty, a healthy year for Ras-I and health and improvement from Fletcher/Spikes would go a long way to squaring this defense away.

It's never going to be the dominant unit it once was because BB's philosophy has changed. He once put the majority of the team's cap $$$ into the defense believing that you could win with great defense, special teams and adequate offense. His offense used to look like his defense does now, littered with cast-offs, cheap veteran FAs and UDFA working around a couple high profile people.

Remember the days of Mike Compton, Joe Andruzzi, Charles Johnson, Fred Coleman, Brandon Gorwin and many others? BB has completely shifted his thinking to offense. He wants to pay a few key guys on defense and fill in with cheaper solid players who will operate at a level that will allow his offense to win games. The endless series of injuries has made it tough on this defense so we don't really know if it would have been adequate or not. If there is only a small amount of money to spend, I'd spend it on a real safety to pair up with Chung and hope to stay healthy.

There were roster decisions regarding the defensive backfield which are being criticized now but people forget that an NFL roster is limited. You can only carry so many people. Saying that Butler and Wilhite would be better than Jones and Eldelman is true but BB started the year with Dowling and Bodden. He cut those other guys in favor of them and they were both injured. Cutting Sanders and letting Merriweather go are a different story, one that can be rightly criticized.

Offensively, I'd do what had to be done to re-sign Welker. After that there are few weaknesses other than at WR and Center. Light, Solder, Vollmer & Cannon are a formidable tackle unit when healthy. The TE spot is off the charts (a true third guy would be nice though) and the RB corps looks set for a few years. It's young and cheap and after Faulk goes a roster spot will open up.

This team needs an outside threat at WR. Someone who can win one on one match-ups. He doesn't have to be Moss, he can be Gaffney and he'll get the job done. Price and Tate had the potential but couldn't break in so BB put big $$$ into Ocho and we've all seen the result. He might get another chance with a full off-season but I wouldn't be surprised to see the team go in another direction.

I would have liked to see the Pats go after the Packers' Jones or the Chargers' Floyd last year as FAs but they stayed away preferring Ocho who is cheaper and should have been the answer. I'm not sure which WRs are available in FA beyond Welk but the pie is pretty small. I don't see a lot of $$ available for free agents. Maybe German patriot can give us some idea of the $$$ situation as he sees it for next year.
 
Oswlek said:
Haven't we been giving Devin a hard time all year about allowing slants and in-cuts? Perhaps he is refining his game to better take those away and got caught?
Click to expand...

This is entirely possible and plays into BB's playing the percentages. The in-cuts are a high percentage throws while the Fades and Gos are low percentage throws. As part of the GP against Miami, BB may have been willing to concede a few down the field opportunities for Marshall in exchange for reducing the high percentage throws to Bess, the TEs and on the in-cuts and Slants.
 
AllWorldTE said:
I don't see a lot of $$ available for free agents. Maybe German patriot can give us some idea of the $$$ situation as he sees it for next year.
Click to expand...

Sure I can. Afaik the cap won't go up by much, so let's assume it will be somewhere around $125M. The Patriots currently have roughly $98M tied up in 38 players and dead money. They need some room for possible late signings, injury replacements and that stuff. Rookies too of course. They could try to create some room, maybe cut a couple guys (Ocho, Wright and Brace would combine for $3.5M for example) but even then I'd say they could spend $20M, probably less. And half of that has to go to Welker.
 
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