Put the Kool Aid down before it spills.
Point out one that has popped in the last 5-10 years that was severely over drafted per almost all ranking sources.
Vollmer, a guy who wasn't even invited to the combine and wasn't even a consideration for UDFA by the 'experts'?
Who decides what over-drafted is? How do you know when a pick i
has over-drafted, other than Mel Kiper says so? All those experts go by stats and measurables, and how players did their last game. Stock goes way up if a guy does well in the senior bowl and down if he has a bad game. Does that make any sense at all? Players go up and down the draft board for months after all the games are played. That makes no sense, either.
And how do you know when a pick will be 7th round or third round? What if 31 teams wanted X player who should have been a seventh round pick, and they decided to over-draft him in the fifth round. A couple of GMs were smart enough to guess that and decided to make sure they got him in the fourth. They all would be SOL if someone drafted him in the third, and the guy who was smart enough to get the guy he wanted is ridiculed as over-drafting. smh
If someone selected Malcom Butler in the second round, would that be called overdrafted when the pick was made?
The only system that makes sense to me is rate players by how much impact they will have on your team, the draft the guy you think will make the biggest impact on you team at that pick. If no one on your board has what you consider third round value based on what he can do FOR YOUR TEAM, then trade down.
But if you think a guy has second round value TO YOUR TEAM, and it is the third round, then why wait and hope he'll be available in the 7th? That makes zero sense to me. If I think the guy will have an impact on my team, why the hell would I care what other teams think. It only takes one team to be thinking like me and the guy I want is gone.
I suppose maybe other coaches/GMs draft with an eye to how others might evaluate a player, but how many superbowls have they won do to their system. BB won several and went to others by "wasting yet another pick." I don't see that as drinking Kool AId, but as looking at long term results of a process.
This rant isn't directed at you, honestly. I'm just sick of all the draft grades out there, where a team is graded based on how well they followed the writers mock draft.