Are the Ravens set to bounce back from their struggles in 2022? Will the Patriots miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons? Analytics guru Cynthia Frelund reveals her projected win total for each AFC team.
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Sounds about right...
I've already predicted, grudgingly, the Pats may not win as many games this year as last year. At the same time, I won't count their win total as evidence of their overall improvement. Our team is still under construction and I'll be patient with BB's plan.
Their ceiling is higher. This season is structured beautifully for a young team that needs to gel. They could very reasonably be 6-4 with a ton of momentum, coming together heading into the teeth of their schedule. I'd been toying with an "Optimist's Prediction, 2022" thread where I walk through it, but while those first 4 games are tough, there's every reason to believe that each are winnable:
- Miami still has a lot to prove, and Tua, and first year head coach.
- Steelers game pits Belichick against a rookie/raw QB.
- Ravens, BB has historically made run-first QBs look very ordinary, and the defense now has the team speed (especially with these safeties) to execute.
- Green Bay's offense is as questionable as New England's, and while I love Rogers, he's days away from a total meltdown at any given moment.
Their floor isn't far off, but things would have to go very wrong for Belichick not to be able to will the team to 6 or 7 wins.
-Tua is 3-0 vs BB so far.
-Steelers have either Mitch Trubisky or Pickett at QB behind the worst OL the Steelers have seen in a long, long time. They'll be pressured on every play. Defensively, the Steelers should be terrific although their CBs are just like ours - a lot of good solid youth but there's no true shut down guy.
-The Ravens have to satisfy Jackson with a huge contract soon. I don't blame them for being reluctant but with Watson's and Wilson's recent deals the price for Jackson keeps going higher. Jackson's eventual contract will hold them back in years to come. But not this year. They have a solid roster and should do well this year barring the injuries they had last year.
-Completely agree with your evaluation of GB. If it doesn't go well early, Rodgers could go bad quickly.
The Raiders are better than that ranking, not enough love for them, although there's something to be said for the AFC West beating up on each other.
Denver got too much love. The Colts got too much love, too. Neither team has proven anything with their new QBs.
KC is being given the benefit of the doubt because of Reid and Mahomes. This could be the year all that benefit ends.
Buffalo is every man's #1 pick in the AFC. Just remember in last year's regular season they only beat 2 playoff teams. Then, in the playoffs, tick tock...
The pundits have decided the SB loser's curse will be the Bengals downfall this year without a shred of proof.
Lots of questions remain to be answered.
This season can't start soon enough for me.
