:shrug:
Caveat: There's no use signing Brady unless your goal is to win a SB.
The problems with signing TB as I see it:
Age - It's eventually going to hit if it hasn't begun already
Salary -
$13M owed him over the next 2 years PLUS
$20M minimum/year for year 1 and
$20M minimum for year 2 =
$53M for 2 years = $26.5M/. That's a lot of money for his 2019 production. But there's this...with weapons, he'd have done better.
The 2 Year Plan.
If you bring TB back it follows that you have to get him some veteran WR & TE weapons through FA or trades since adding rookies won't help him.
A trade for OBJ would cost at least a 1st round pick + $15M/ in salary for 4 years if the Browns would trade him. The bright side is that OBJ's $38M signing bonus has already been paid but that's a lot of capital to spend for another diva WR who is trying hard to be a boy scout in Cleveland.
Or sign a FA WR. The pickings are slim but there are some options.
FA WRs
1. Amari Cooper, Dal. He's a very productive X WR. For Dallas in 2019 he had 80 catches, 1200 yards and 8 TDs in 16 games played. He's had over 1000 yds in 4 of his 5 years played and averages 7 TDs/year. He's expected to command $14M/ and Jerruh is playing hard ball with him. He's a possibility.
Let's compare these 2...OBJ and a 1st rnd pick or Amari Cooper? Each will cost $14-15M/. I'm not thinking BB will be excited by either one bc of $$.
Let's keep looking.
Other 2020 FAs for comparison:
2. Emmanuel Sanders, SF. OMG yes 6 years ago but he's 33 now and not the same player. He's done well with JimmyG in Shanahan's offense so I'm guessing SF re-signs him for $6-8M/ for 2-3 years.
3. Robby Anderson, Jete. Yeah, I know, he's a lightening rod for trouble and, like AB, he creates a lot on his own, but he's also the kind of X WR the Pats need for Brady. He's dynamic, durable, fast and more than capable of demanding S help in coverage. He'll cost around $9M/ for 65 recs, 1000 yds and 5-6 TDs.
4. AJ Green. Child please.
5. Breshad Perriman, TB. Ugh. Ok, well, he has 1500 yds and 11 TDs in his 4 year career with TB but 1/3 of that is from this year when he finally caught on after disappointing for 3 years. He's expected to command $5M in FA.
6. Randall Cobb, Dal. He was a superstar in 2014 & got paid with GB before multiple minor injuries derailed his production. He's only 29, turning 30 this spring, and for $5M this year he gave the Cowboys 55 catches, 850 yds and 3 TDs plus he played in 15 games for them. That's rare for him. He's expected to command $6.5M/. He'd be a gamble bc of health but we all know BB loves a good gamble.
There you have the proven FA options who could help the Pats.
Add Brady's $26.5M and one of the X WRs above = $33.5-41.5M (and a 1st rnd pick if you trade for OBJ).
Now add a FA TE.
1a. Austin Hooper, Atl. 6'4", 260. 25 years old. Very athletic hands catcher who has improved every year though out his rookie contract. He's willing & better than avg as an inline blocker, too. For 2019 he had 75 catches for 800 yds and 6 TDs. He's faster than prime Gronk but not as big a catch radius. Dependable for 1st downs. He runs a beautiful seam route. What I like about him is that he's driven to improve and has improved quite a bit every year. He'll command in the $8M/ vicinity.
1b. Hunter Henry, SD. 6'5", 255. 25 years old. Mackie award winner for Arkansas in 2015. Very good blocker with great hand use. Speed is good & similar to Hooper's speed, maybe a little bit faster than Hooper. Runs very good routes with good technique. 9.25" hands which is a little small for his size and 32.5" arms; Hooper's hands are 10.625" and he has 33.5" arms for a better radius. Henry had 55 catches for 650 yards and 5 TDs for the Chargers this year. Injuries: concussion his rookie year, a tibial fracture and an ACL tear 2 years ago. None indicate he's an injury risk imo. He'll command $7M/.
I like both of these guys for the Pats if they can be signed.
3. Jacob Hollister, Sea. Yep. Why can't we find guys like this?
That's it for FA TEs.
In summary, for the Pats to bring back TB & use FA for weapons it will cost Brady's $26.5M + $9-15M for a WR (and a 1st rnd pick if OBJ) + a TE's $7-8M = $40-49M vs the $13.5M cap hit if Brady leaves.
In doing so, you're hoping for fewer injuries all around, especially with the OL, so there's a gamble there, realizing last year was horrendous for injuries. A regression to the norm can be reasonably expected. KVN and Jamie Collins will probably be lost to FA. They will have to be replaced whether TB is re-signed or not. BB can do that. Then Thuney has to be re-signed or replaced which won't be done easily. Draft picks can shore up the trenches, the S position and any other positions of need can be filled through FA or the draft as per usual.
Doing all this, signing a FA X WR and a FA TE, along with Brady should give us a shot to play in another SB in the next 2 years.
The Long Range Plan.
The alternative is to let TB leave and use the $27-36M that would save (the cost of TB, a FA X WR and a TE from above) and use that money to sign Thuney, possibly KVN & Collins and for upgrades along the OL (Cannon & OC if Andrews can't go) with the goal of switching to a ram-it-down-the-gut running game to help Stidham succeed. BB can find a horse RB to carry the rock & the draft can provide a speedy X WR and a TE or 2 to develop right along with Stidham. This is a more long range plan in my mind but could pay huge dividends sooner than one might think.
Bottom line - both plans can work out.
All that said, I have no idea what BB will want to do. My gut tells me he'd choose the long range plan every time given a choice. What about Kraft? He loves TB like a son. As a businessman Kraft thinks long range just like BB. I believe that BB and Caserio could sell Kraft on their long range plan but it won't be easy. Kraft will want a business plan for TB's 2 additional years here and for the next 2 years after TB is gone. That's a different story and would require a lot of time to write but maybe that would work, too. Tears will be shed. And I still have no freaking idea what's going to happen.