QBR Rating

[midgar8784]

That's not Dilfer.

And you're trying to tell me you never make excuses for Brady?

Excuse? No. I very seldom would have to...I remember a story from ESPn that broke down Eli's ints that year he had 25...tipped pass, receiver ran the wrong route, the wind caught it, a bird flew into the ball, etc etc...I have never seen that story for Brady....how come? Maybe....Because Brady does not throw freaking 25 ints a year or only complete 54%. There are qb's that you have to do a lot of talking to make great, and there are qb's that are just great.

 

[Providence Colt]

Excuse? No. I very seldom would have to...I remember a story from ESPn that broke down Eli's ints that year he had 25...tipped pass, receiver ran the wrong route, the wind caught it, a bird flew into the ball, etc etc...I have never seen that story for Brady....how come? Maybe....Because Brady does not throw freaking 25 ints a year or only complete 54%. There are qb's that you have to do a lot of talking to make great, and there are qb's that are just great.

You've just spent the last week and a half shouting down anyone that dared say Brady turtled.

Again I ask you, which stat is the one that's infallible in telling us who the best is?

 

[midgar8784]

You've just spent the last week and a half shouting down anyone that dared say Brady turtled.

Again I ask you, which stat is the one that's infallible in telling us who the best is?

No, I said that I did not think it was a big deal as did others, I did not make excuses...its not like I said, well, he turtles because its cold, or he turtles because the grass is too soft....thats making excuses. As I said, if I have to make a ton of excuses and make up some weird stat to make a player good, then I am not sure he is that good. I can pretty much just kinda point over at brady and say...well...there it is...I do not have to say, well his defense makes him bad, his receivers suck, his oline is no good, he has no coaching, the weather is bad. AS I said before...QBR is an off stat it always has been, nobody except a few people at ESPN even recognize it...if you like it because it makes Luck look better than he is, then I say go for it.

 

[Providence Colt]

No, I said that I did not think it was a big deal as did others, I did not make excuses...its not like I said, well, he turtles because its cold, or he turtles because the grass is too soft....thats making excuses. As I said, if I have to make a ton of excuses and make up some weird stat to make a player good, then I am not sure he is that good. I can pretty much just kinda point over at brady and say...well...there it is...I do not have to say, well his defense makes him bad, his receivers suck, his oline is no good, he has no coaching, the weather is bad. AS I said before...QBR is an off stat it always has been, nobody except a few people at ESPN even recognize it...if you like it because it makes Luck look better than he is, then I say go for it.

Again, which stats are we supposed to use? And why are they so much better? Please explain.

 

[midgar8784]

Again, which stats are we supposed to use? And why are they so much better? Please explain.

I use TD's, ints, completion pct, yards, wins, qb rating...once I look through all of that...I can kinda get an idea how how he played. All of those except qb rating which is basically a formula based on those stats are all what actually happened, not what maybe I think happened becuase of this this and this....I am not going to try and guess and say...uh well, I think that was actually a good throw by brady that got picked, but the receiver was in the wrong place, so therfore I will score him lower on that....sorry I am making a judgement call that might not even be correct. So as I said, if you like to base the QB off that, by all means. By a Qb that is completing 53% of his passes, sorry I cannot say he is playing better than all other Qb's I dont care what formula you use.

 

[Providence Colt]

I use TD's, ints, completion pct, yards, wins, qb rating...once I look through all of that...I can kinda get an idea how how he played. All of those except qb rating which is basically a formula based on those stats are all what actually happened, not what maybe I think happened becuase of this this and this....I am not going to try and guess and say...uh well, I think that was actually a good throw by brady that got picked, but the receiver was in the wrong place, so therfore I will score him lower on that....sorry I am making a judgement call that might not even be correct. So as I said, if you like to base the QB off that, by all means. By a Qb that is completing 53% of his passes, sorry I cannot say he is playing better than all other Qb's I dont care what formula you use.

And I believe that there is value in looking beyond raw numbers and that not all of them are created equal. I personally believe that factors such as dropped passes, spikes, scrambling, expected points added, win probability, YAC, avoiding sacks, passing under pressure, pass protection and the running game can all influence these stats and make them misleading.

Like you trying to tell me that Brady did well in January against the Ravens. His raw stats indicated 2 INT's, 0 TD's, and a 57.5 QB Rating.

 

[midgar8784]

And I believe that there is value in looking beyond raw numbers and that not all of them are created equal. I personally believe that factors such as dropped passes, spikes, scrambling, expected points added, win probability, YAC, avoiding sacks, passing under pressure, pass protection and the running game can all influence these stats and make them misleading.

Like you trying to tell me that Brady did well in January against the Ravens. His raw stats indicated 2 INT's, 0 TD's, and a 57.5 QB Rating.

But who's opinion do we believe on if its a dropped pass or a bad throw? I have sat and listened to people argue that welker brady thing in the superbowl a billion times on if it was a bad throw or a dropped catch, this is why you cannot use opinion to determine a players worth, because everyone see's it different. There are very smart people that will tell you that YAC is as much of a product of where the QB is putting the ball than it is that the receiver ran with it. Avoiding sacks....how does someone know if the sack was able to be avoided, or the Qb held the ball too long, or if he held it too long because nobody was open or he was just too dumb to see the open receiver? Too many things are opinions.

 

[Providence Colt]

But who's opinion do we believe on if its a dropped pass or a bad throw? I have sat and listened to people argue that welker brady thing in the superbowl a billion times on if it was a bad throw or a dropped catch, this is why you cannot use opinion to determine a players worth, because everyone see's it different. There are very smart people that will tell you that YAC is as much of a product of where the QB is putting the ball than it is that the receiver ran with it. Avoiding sacks....how does someone know if the sack was able to be avoided, or the Qb held the ball too long, or if he held it too long because nobody was open or he was just too dumb to see the open receiver? Too many things are opinions.

I'd rather attempt to take those factors into consideration rather than ignore them all completely.

 

[midgar8784]

I'd rather attempt to take those factors into consideration rather than ignore them all completely.

You are letting someone else take in those factors and tell you what is what....to me every Qb is under the same umbrella....nobody is unlucky all the time, nobody has crappy receivers all of the time, nobody has a crappy oline all of the time, etc etc. You are what you are....you either are, or you are not, a great quarterback....that it...I do not care what is around you, your stats might go up or down, but you either are, or you are not a great QB...trent dilfer is not going to tell me that this was a catch of this throw was not as needed as this throw was, its stupid.

 

[O_P_T]

Not all incompletions are created equal.

If there is good coverage by the defense, the QB is starting to run out of time, and they simply throw the ball away, is that a "good" or "bad" play by the QB?

I think most of us would agree that it typically is a "good" play by the QB.

That was specifically one of the things that Dilfer described as being part of the QBR system when it was introduced.

If a pass is a clear "drop" by the receiver, is that a "bad" play by the QB?

I think most of us would say no.

Since there is an official scorer in baseball that decides if it is a throwing or catching error, I don't see why it's such a leap to have an analogous approach made in football.

Defining "clutch" receptions seems to me to be easy to do.

3rd or 4th and long to keep a drive going, two minute drills, or any other "gotta have it" situation.

As PC says, no statistic is perfect, and I haven't looked closely at all the aspects of the QBR, but I agree with the concept that simply looking at yards, %, TD's, INT's doesn't tell the whole story at how good a QB actually is.

 

[TipRoast]

Since there is an official scorer in baseball that decides if it is a throwing or catching error, I don't see why it's such a leap to have an analogous approach made in football.

Usually when a play is scored as an error in baseball, it's pretty clear who gets the error. Sometimes a play can be on the border between a hit and an error - there are a handful of these per team during the course of a season.

Let's say a QB calls a timing pattern and the WR runs the wrong route - the QB throws to a spot and gives up a pick six because the WR turns out instead of in.

How is the official scorer supposed to know that?

 

[O_P_T]

Usually when a play is scored as an error in baseball, it's pretty clear who gets the error. Sometimes a play can be on the border between a hit and an error - there are a handful of these per team during the course of a season.

Let's say a QB calls a timing pattern and the WR runs the wrong route - the QB throws to a spot and gives up a pick six because the WR turns out instead of in.

How is the official scorer supposed to know that?

I was thinking more of a drop than the type of play you describe, but yes I agree there would be times that the scorer would not know who made the "error". In those instances it would presumably default to what it is now, the QB takes the blame.

But another instance would be if the WR fell down on his break and that's why the ball was picked. I would think a scorer could figure that one out.

I'm not saying that a scorer could figure who's at "fault" all the time, simply that the idea of having a scorer exists in other sports, so I don't think it's too much of a leap to have someone make some judgments in football.

Middy seemed to be very opposed to the idea of that. I was simply pointing out that other sports do have people passing judgement all the time.

 

[midgar8784]

Not all incompletions are created equal.

If there is good coverage by the defense, the QB is starting to run out of time, and they simply throw the ball away, is that a "good" or "bad" play by the QB?

I think most of us would agree that it typically is a "good" play by the QB.

That was specifically one of the things that Dilfer described as being part of the QBR system when it was introduced.

If a pass is a clear "drop" by the receiver, is that a "bad" play by the QB?

I think most of us would say no.

Since there is an official scorer in baseball that decides if it is a throwing or catching error, I don't see why it's such a leap to have an analogous approach made in football.

Defining "clutch" receptions seems to me to be easy to do.

3rd or 4th and long to keep a drive going, two minute drills, or any other "gotta have it" situation.

As PC says, no statistic is perfect, and I haven't looked closely at all the aspects of the QBR, but I agree with the concept that simply looking at yards, %, TD's, INT's doesn't tell the whole story at how good a QB actually is.

So let me ask you, if a Qb throws 3 tds in the 3rd quarter and puts the team up 3 td's and you win, is that better or worse than throwing 3 td's in the 4th quarter and win? Thats the problem, things are weighted by when you throw them, which is crap and again, no you cannot tell what is more clutch than something else, no you cannot tell if the receiver ran the wrong route and no you do not know whta the play was supposed to be. Did welker drop the ball? Did Brady make a bad throw? 50% would say one way or the other, so who is right and gets to make the opinion for the stat to work? All players are under the same thing....Its not only Eli who gets a ball tipped for an int.....and again, you cannot tell me that a QB that is not completing 55% of his passes is playing better than any other QB in the league. Why does dilfer get to say what is clutch? Is throwing 2 td's late in the 4th when you are up by 14 bad? What if the team comes back? Woops sorry its weighted less than if you throw them down by 7, sorry, but its stupid.

 

[midgar8784]

I was thinking more of a drop than the type of play you describe, but yes I agree there would be times that the scorer would not know who made the "error". In those instances it would presumably default to what it is now, the QB takes the blame.

But another instance would be if the WR fell down on his break and that's why the ball was picked. I would think a scorer could figure that one out.

I'm not saying that a scorer could figure who's at "fault" all the time, simply that the idea of having a scorer exists in other sports, so I don't think it's too much of a leap to have someone make some judgments in football.

Middy seemed to be very opposed to the idea of that. I was simply pointing out that other sports do have people passing judgement all the time.

Yeah I am opposed to have 2 people make a judgement on something without knowing the play, the route, where the ball was supposed to be, what was done before the catch, what was done after the catch, etc etc etc. You might as well make it figure skating and just have people hold up numbers to say how the QB did....no thanks. Luck is completing less than 55% of his passes and you want to tell me he is the best> I call BS....by the way, all sacks are weighted against the QB...all of them, so are fumbles....is that fair? Rushing yards are also weighted...so Mike Vick is better than Tom Brady? Sorry no.

 

[O_P_T]

So let me ask you, if a Qb throws 3 tds in the 3rd quarter and puts the team up 3 td's and you win, is that better or worse than throwing 3 td's in the 4th quarter and win? Thats the problem, things are weighted by when you throw them, which is crap and again, no you cannot tell what is more clutch than something else

Tell me Middy,

Was Brady's performance in the last drive of SB XXXVI "clutch"?

Yes or no.

How do you determine your answer?

I think we all would say it was "clutch" and we all know the reason. The circumstances, the pressure, the fact that there was zero margin of error, all make it pretty easy to say that was a "clutch" performance.

Now let's consider two simple plays in that sequence.

The very first play from scrimmage was a 5 yard dump off to JR Redmond to move the ball out to the 22.

Do you think that play is 100% equal to any other 5 yard pass play, in any other game, at any other time? That there is nothing about that particular play that makes it a little bit different?

What would have happened if Brady didn't make that pass?

What if he was sacked? He was under pressure and had to step up and find JR.

What if he threw an incompletion?

Would BB have decided to do what Madden recommended and take a knee and go into overtime?

The fact that he made a simple 5 yard gain made all those other questions moot. It allowed the offense to have a little confidence and to keep plugging away.

So no, that little 5 yard dump off was not 100% equal to any other 5 yard pass made by any QB in any other game at any other point in time.

What about the 5th play of the drive? That was the one where the RAMS had two guys come free up the middle and Brady rolled out and threw the ball away.

An incompletion.

That's bad, right?

Well except they had 33 seconds left at the snap and were on their own 41 yard line. Brady avoided a sack and stopped the clock with the incomplete pass.

I'd say that particular play was a very good play by Brady, under those particular circumstances.

Oh BTW, he had two other incomplete passes on that drive. They were both spikes to stop the clock. Were those good or bad plays?

, no you cannot tell if the receiver ran the wrong route and no you do not know whta the play was supposed to be. Did welker drop the ball? Did Brady make a bad throw? 50% would say one way or the other, so who is right and gets to make the opinion for the stat to work?

Well, I'm so glad you've been paying attention.

I was thinking more of a drop than the type of play you describe, but yes I agree there would be times that the scorer would not know who made the "error". In those instances it would presumably default to what it is now, the QB takes the blame.

Tell me, if a RB is out in the flat, the ball is put right out in front of him, on his hands, he turns his head before he fully secures the ball, and drops it.

Is that the QB's fault or the RB's fault for the incompletion?

All players are under the same thing....Its not only Eli who gets a ball tipped for an int.....and again, you cannot tell me that a QB that is not completing 55% of his passes is playing better than any other QB in the league. Why does dilfer get to say what is clutch? Is throwing 2 td's late in the 4th when you are up by 14 bad? What if the team comes back? Woops sorry its weighted less than if you throw them down by 7, sorry, but its stupid.

Again, you're not paying attention.

As PC says, no statistic is perfect, and I haven't looked closely at all the aspects of the QBR, but I agree with the concept that simply looking at yards, %, TD's, INT's doesn't tell the whole story at how good a QB actually is.

I'm not saying that the QBR is "perfect". I'm simply saying that your insistence on the stats you cite is equally "imperfect".

 

[midgar8784]

Tell me Middy,

Was Brady's performance in the last drive of SB XXXVI "clutch"?

Yes or no.

How do you determine your answer?

I think we all would say it was "clutch" and we all know the reason. The circumstances, the pressure, the fact that there was zero margin of error, all make it pretty easy to say that was a "clutch" performance.

Now let's consider two simple plays in that sequence.

The very first play from scrimmage was a 5 yard dump off to JR Redmond to move the ball out to the 22.

Do you think that play is 100% equal to any other 5 yard pass play, in any other game, at any other time? That there is nothing about that particular play that makes it a little bit different?

What would have happened if Brady didn't make that pass?

What if he was sacked? He was under pressure and had to step up and find JR.

What if he threw an incompletion?

Would BB have decided to do what Madden recommended and take a knee and go into overtime?

The fact that he made a simple 5 yard gain made all those other questions moot. It allowed the offense to have a little confidence and to keep plugging away.

So no, that little 5 yard dump off was not 100% equal to any other 5 yard pass made by any QB in any other game at any other point in time.

What about the 5th play of the drive? That was the one where the RAMS had two guys come free up the middle and Brady rolled out and threw the ball away.

An incompletion.

That's bad, right?

Well except they had 33 seconds left at the snap and were on their own 41 yard line. Brady avoided a sack and stopped the clock with the incomplete pass.

I'd say that particular play was a very good play by Brady, under those particular circumstances.

Oh BTW, he had two other incomplete passes on that drive. They were both spikes to stop the clock. Were those good or bad plays?




Well, I'm so glad you've been paying attention.



Tell me, if a RB is out in the flat, the ball is put right out in front of him, on his hands, he turns his head before he fully secures the ball, and drops it.

Is that the QB's fault or the RB's fault for the incompletion?




Again, you're not paying attention.



I'm not saying that the QBR is "perfect". I'm simply saying that your insistence on the stats you cite is equally "imperfect".

Who has been the better QB...ready?

96-177 54% completion pct 1208 yards 7 td's 5 ints 6.83 ypa

124-185 67% completion pct 1450 yards 8 td's 1 int 7.84 ypa


According to QBR? The first QB has been better....sorry, it does not fly.

 

[dchester]

Who has been the better QB...ready?

96-177 54% completion pct 1208 yards 7 td's 5 ints 6.83 ypa

124-185 67% completion pct 1450 yards 8 td's 1 int 7.84 ypa


According to QBR? The first QB has been better....sorry, it does not fly.

Either that, or the stats you cited do not tell the whole story.

popcorn

 

[midgar8784]

Either that, or the stats you cited do not tell the whole story.

popcorn

Well what story would you like then to tell? Luck is playing bad today too, so I Imagine his QBR will go up cause its not his fault.

 

[OSUBuckeye]

Well what story would you like then to tell? Luck is playing bad today too, so I Imagine his QBR will go up cause its not his fault.

Luck had his struggles today for sure. Made some rookie mistakes. However it's not like he is a 13 year vet, former league mvp & SB mvp, making those same rookie mistakes.

 

[midgar8784]

Luck had his struggles today for sure. Made some rookie mistakes. However it's not like he is a 13 year vet, former league mvp & SB mvp, making those same rookie mistakes.

Well at least I will still be a Patriots fan next week even if they played bad today.