Following up on Chev's report on Drake Maye
So much of the
New England Patriots’ 2024 draft (and really their entire 2024 season) comes down to which quarterback they (presumably) take with the third overall pick. That choice will likely come down to whoever is still an option once they’re on the clock: Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.
The two quarterbacks have different skill sets and present different problems for opposing defenses. So with the draft three weeks away, we’re taking an in-depth look at the strengths and weaknesses of each quarterback to get a sense of what the Patriots could be landing.
Earlier this week, we
broke down Maye’s game. Now, we delve into Daniels of LSU.
Strengths
No player in this draft delivers explosive plays like Daniels, something that could be quite appealing for a Patriots offense that has lacked excitement since
Tom Brady left town. Last season, Daniels recorded an FBS-best 90 (!) plays of 20-plus yards. It’s obviously not an apples-to-apples comparison, but the entire Patriots offense produced 37 such plays last season, the fewest in the
NFL.
Daniels’ success along those lines speaks to two massive strengths in his game: his running ability and his deep ball.
The 23-year-old Daniels has incredible vision as a runner and rushed for 8.4 yards per carry last season to go with 10 touchdowns on the ground. He became the first player in SEC history to top 3,800 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. He put together a Heisman Trophy-winning season by averaging 412 yards of offense per game, the most of any player in the FBS (Maye was No. 2, 74 yards behind Daniels). Daniels’ father was a Division I cornerback, and Daniels runs with the shiftiness of a slick cover corner. Daniels didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the combine, but he will enter the NFL as one of the fastest quarterbacks in the league.
Daniels also offers the ability to throw the ball deep and outside the numbers. On throws of 20-plus yards last season, Daniels completed 67 percent of his passes and had a 22-to-0 touchdown-to-interception rate. That’s incredible.
LSU coach Brian Kelly praised his work ethic, and he was voted a team captain last season in Baton Rouge. The five-year starter, who spent three seasons at Arizona State, went 37-18 overall as a collegian.
Weaknesses
Daniels is a bit of an outlier given his slender stature. Any conversation about his weakness probably needs to start there. Daniels weighed 210 pounds at his pro day last week (which a Patriots contingent attended), an important number given there was some fear he played at 205 pounds or less.
That number is important because of the cutoff it represents. Since 2000, only five quarterbacks who weighed less than 205 pounds have started 14 games or more in a season: Aaron Brooks,
Kirk Cousins, Doug Flutie, Jeff Garcia and
Bryce Young. Since 2016, only three quarterbacks who weighed 210 pounds or less have started 14 games or more in a season: Cousins, Young and
Kyler Murray.
Daniels is tall (6-foot-3) but slight, and that body frame is not just an anomaly among successful NFL quarterbacks, but it becomes even riskier with the way Daniels plays. He doesn’t have a good feel for when to slide while running or even how to get hit, so he tends to
take massive shots. He mostly stayed healthy in college despite those big hits, but it’s quite risky to be that size and play the way he does. Injuries seem almost inevitable in the NFL, especially if he continues to scramble at a high rate.
That’s the other big knock against him – how quickly Daniels pivots to scrambling, sometimes tucking the ball to run as soon as his first read in the passing game isn’t open. His scramble rate is significantly higher than other top quarterbacks in recent years, indicating he bolts from the pocket before he needs to. While that mostly worked in college, it’s less likely to be effective in the NFL.
Daniels mostly picked apart defenses last season with a great deep ball and a good feel for throwing outside the numbers, but that’s likely not a great option for him next season if he lands in New England. He’s a bit like
Russell Wilson with his penchant for throwing deep and outside while struggling with throws over the middle, but he runs more like
Lamar Jackson.
The drawback for Daniels if he ends up with the Patriots is that they don’t have receivers on the roster who tend to win downfield or outside the numbers. It doesn’t mean you don’t draft a quarterback because your supporting cast doesn’t fit his strengths, but it’s worth noting. And if they do pick him at No. 3, it indicates the type of receiver they might look for in the second or third round.
Daniels benefited by having superb talent around him at LSU, and you can argue that his top two receivers last season — Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas — would be better than his top two options next season if he lands with the Pats. That would be an adjustment for Daniels.
Daniels was a three-year starter at Arizona State before transferring to LSU and was good but not great in Tempe. If he declared for the draft last year, he probably would’ve been a late-round pick.
Lastly, Daniels is on the older side for a first-round quarterback. He’ll turn 24 in December, making him the oldest of the top four quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Maye and Daniels).
Conclusion
Daniels could be a one-man fix for the Patriots offense, especially when it comes to creating explosive plays. But there’s more inherent risk with him than the other top quarterbacks given his size and the fact that he really only had one dominant season in college, one that came when he had some of the best receivers in college football (Nabers and Thomas could be top-15 picks).
There’s a chance Daniels lives up to his potential and is able to throw downfield like Wilson while scrambling like Jackson. That would make for a quarterback who’s awfully difficult to defend. But he also seems to have a lower floor than other high-end quarterback prospects, starting with the concerns about his size.