Pretty sure you missed the point 305 made. Let's suppose you're the GM of the Chiefs.
Your 2018 season has gone swimmingly because of a number of draft choices from 2-4 yrs ago that worked out sensationally as well a few 1 year deals on aging but trusted veterans. It's 2019 now and you have some important decisions to make regarding ERFAs, RFAs and UFAs.
ERFAs, 6: Generally a bargain to bring back so most teams do if the player has shown some ability.
K Harrison Butker. Here's a guy you have to think about giving a long term deal at $3-4M/ if he'll take it. The alternative is to sign him to a 1 year prove it again deal risking that his price goes even higher.
The other 5 ERFAs are roster roundout bodies you may as well keep (cheap) knowing they may not make it out of training camp but, hey, you may find another keeper.
RFAs, 2: This group usually requires a little more thought than the ERFAs. By now you know the players who can help the team win. Your job is to decide if they are worth the money they'll cost.
LB Terrance Smith. Showed good ability and contributed until his ACL tear in 2018. Are you putting a tender on him? A low tender or a high tender?
S Jordan Lucas. A guy whose game snaps have tumbled so he should be cheap.
[C Austin Reiter. This decision has been made due to C Mitch Morse's injury history; Reiter signed his new contract last month with a modest $700K bump/year.]
FAs, 16: Now we're getting to the heart of the matter because these players have been around and showed ability. These decisions will be harder since other teams can compete to pay them & there's always 1 team who will outbid you.
Edge Dee Ford. Oh shit, this is getting real now. He's a great asset but he's injured frequently. Do you tag him or try to extend him? Either way he'll get a significant bump in salary as he'll be in demand. $8.5-$9M/. Ouch.
DE Allen Bailey. 8 years with the Chiefs. Productive player & quality depth. 30 years old though. Short term deal or not?
TE Demetrius Harris. A jag TE but he's been a Chief for 5 years and has had decent production behind Kelce. Knows the system but he's a weed offender. 27 years old & entering his prime. Paid $2M/ the last few years. Is he worth a $1M/ increase (33.3%)?
WR Chris Conley. A jag WR stuck behind Hill, Watkins and Kelce as receivers. 2015 3rd round pick (76). Achilles injury in 2017. Never lived up to his promise. 61% catch rate and has had 5 career drops all in 2018. 4.35 40 though and a worthy back up. meh. 5 career TDs; 4 were this year. Easily replaced production but the kid is young and could break out if given the chance. He may want out. His $750K/ salary could double or triple in the open market.
C Mitch Morse. Another 2015 draft pick. Ranked 6th best C. Concussion and injury history. Solid when healthy. Is Reiter ready? Morse is due a healthy bump from his $1.1M/ rookie deal even if he takes a discount to center to Mahomes.
CB Steven Nelson. Yet another 2015 3rd rnd pick (98). Nelson has shown promise and ability with flashes of star potential. PFF's 28th ranked CB and he's KC's best CB. (He'd be the Pats 4th best, btw.) He's playing on a cheap 4yr/$3M rookie deal. 1 concussion and a hammy. He's a favorite for other teams to target but he has weathered the storm. Above avg. 25 year old CB who should get better. He was trade bait last year when Peters was traded. Andy Reid is damn glad now that Veach didn't trade him. He should get a huge raise in FA - $3M-$4M/. Whatcha think? I think Veach lets him walk at great risk to your secondary which is already thin.
S Ron Parker, CB Orlando Scandrick. Aging vets, jags at this point. meh.
But S and CB are both positions that need to be addressed.
WR DeAnthony Thomas. A promising 26 yr old PR/WR who suffered a broken leg in wk 5 and was put on IR. He signed a modest 1 yr FA deal that paid him $900K last yr after being drafted by the Chiefs in 2014.
RB Spencer Ware. 2017 knee injury and 2018 hammy wk 14. $1.5M in 2018. Made some plays after Hunt was released. Another position Veach will have to address. May not make it out of TC if he's re-signed since
RB Damien Williams is doing some work but he's also a FA. It keeps piling up, eh? Keep 1? Keep both? Veach will have some work to do to sign a starting caliber RB through the draft, FA or via trade.
4 other meh backups. OL Jordan Devey is a former Pat who is a career backup. G Jeff Allen is another jag backup who never lived up to his 2nd round (Chiefs, 2012) draft status. Spent 2016-2017 on the Texans and was placed on IR with concussions; released in July, picked up by the Chiefs in Oct. No thanks.
OLB Frank Zombo. Who?
All these decisions are tough to make. The Chiefs will lose some of them and have to pay more for the ones they keep. Good players will be lost.
But the story gets more interesting in 2020 when 19 FAs will hit the market. WR Tyreek Hill is the big name here and he's expected to command $16M yearly.
http://www.optimumscouting.com/nfl-free-agent-contract-projections
The cap doesn't go up enough to cover Hill's bump and you have the other 18 to worry about.
In 2021 Mahomes' 5th year option will cost the Chiefs about $25M.
Patrick Mahomes' fifth-year option will be expensive - Chiefs Wire
In 2022 Mahomes' FA contract will surely be higher than Aaron Rodgers' contract which is 4y/$134M with $98M guaranteed. Paying that much to 1 player puts a stranglehold on teams when trying to build a quality team around him.
Paying Mahomes and Hill in 2022 would cost the Chiefs an additional $45M for the very same players you have right now. Which 10 starters would you release right now to have the cap to pay them?
This is why the Patriots run in the salary cap era is held in such high regard around the league. No other team has been able to maintain excellence because of the cap. There's always a team willing to pay your FA more money. You lose great players every damn year.
