For cuts, signings, trades and draftees during the off season.
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With the 2023 NFL regular season a wrap, 14 teams remain in the hunt for a Lombardi Trophy, while others are looking ahead to free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft.
Here, we will examine which teams have the most money to spend, as well as ways that teams can free up money. All contract information comes from our friends at Over the Cap.
Using every team’s draft capital (based on the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft value chart), effective cap space and proratable money, we can create an offseason composite score that evaluates each team’s resources, without looking at each aspect individually.
We'll start by looking at the two most important offseason variables: draft capital and effective cap space. Effective cap space is a better measurement than regular cap space since it takes into account that a team must have 51 players on its roster. Plotting these two variables together provides a solid look at which teams are set up well in each area.
The Washington Commanders are in a good spot to spend big this offseason, with the second-most effective cap space and the second-most draft capital in the NFL. They can use that money to build their offense around whichever quarterback they likely will select with the No. 2 overall pick. Washington should look to upgrade their offensive line room to protect that signal-caller. Typically, though, good to great offensive tackles don’t hit free agency, as they are usually re-signed, so it might be tricky to navigate that space.
The Tennessee Titans could also be in position to undergo a competitive rebuild with Will Levis on his rookie deal, as they currently have the most effective cap space in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins are in interesting spots, both ranking in the bottom three in effective cap space. While the Chargers do have an above-average amount of draft capital, the Dolphins have the second least. Miami made an all-in push this season with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa playing on a rookie contract, but they stumbled at the finish line after once looking like sure-fire lock to win the AFC East.
There is a good chance the Chargers and Dolphins both pushed all their chips in the past two seasons and will have zero playoff wins to show for it.
But effective cap space on its own doesn't tell the whole story. Cap space can be created in many ways, and that number can change for every team as we approach the free agency tampering period in March.
The above graph shows which teams can free up cap space via restructures. What this means is that any player on the roster for the 2024 season who isn’t on a rookie deal can have their contract restructured to free up cap space. This does a better job of portraying the realities of each NFL team’s cap situation. Even though some teams are above the cap, they have the means to free up space — the Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley special in New Orleans.
Restructurable cap space is how much money a team has tied into base salaries and non-guaranteed roster bonuses. A team can convert up to 80% of those values into prorated salary bonuses.
The Saints have constructed contracts such that they have escape routes, especially in the form of proratable money, which refers to the process of taking a player on a veteran deal and transforming up to 80% of their base salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus. This signing bonus can be spread out over the length of a player’s contract to free up space in the present.
New Orleans can create upward of $122 million simply by restructuring existing veteran contracts. While all $122 million won’t be created, cap wizard Khai Harley has had to do this for years, since the Saints' legendary 2017 draft class that led them to go all-in for three years. However, Father Time might eventually catch up to the franchise, as the Saints had the oldest snap-weighted age of any team in the league this year.
Not many teams have a lot of money to spend and can free up cap space. This shows how NFL front offices like to operate. If they are big spenders and are constantly prorating money during, and after, the season, they most likely set up their contracts to aid that, putting more money into base salaries and non-guaranteed roster bonuses. This also applies to the other side, as there aren’t many teams in “cap hell,” where they have no cap space and no means of creating any.
As shown by the graph, there is also a clear negative correlation between cap space and restructureable cap space. This means that as teams gain more cap space, they are likely to have less restructureable cap space.
While this method works, there is an obvious downside. Front offices can reduce a player's cap hit in a given season, but there is still cash they have to guarantee to that player that they may not have had to in the past.
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Evaluating which NFL teams are best set up for the 2024 offseason based on draft capital and cap space | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF
A look at effective cap space and 2024 NFL Draft capital for all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2024 offseason.
www.pff.com
With the 2023 NFL regular season a wrap, 14 teams remain in the hunt for a Lombardi Trophy, while others are looking ahead to free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft.
Here, we will examine which teams have the most money to spend, as well as ways that teams can free up money. All contract information comes from our friends at Over the Cap.
Using every team’s draft capital (based on the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft value chart), effective cap space and proratable money, we can create an offseason composite score that evaluates each team’s resources, without looking at each aspect individually.
We'll start by looking at the two most important offseason variables: draft capital and effective cap space. Effective cap space is a better measurement than regular cap space since it takes into account that a team must have 51 players on its roster. Plotting these two variables together provides a solid look at which teams are set up well in each area.
The Washington Commanders are in a good spot to spend big this offseason, with the second-most effective cap space and the second-most draft capital in the NFL. They can use that money to build their offense around whichever quarterback they likely will select with the No. 2 overall pick. Washington should look to upgrade their offensive line room to protect that signal-caller. Typically, though, good to great offensive tackles don’t hit free agency, as they are usually re-signed, so it might be tricky to navigate that space.
The Tennessee Titans could also be in position to undergo a competitive rebuild with Will Levis on his rookie deal, as they currently have the most effective cap space in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins are in interesting spots, both ranking in the bottom three in effective cap space. While the Chargers do have an above-average amount of draft capital, the Dolphins have the second least. Miami made an all-in push this season with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa playing on a rookie contract, but they stumbled at the finish line after once looking like sure-fire lock to win the AFC East.
There is a good chance the Chargers and Dolphins both pushed all their chips in the past two seasons and will have zero playoff wins to show for it.
But effective cap space on its own doesn't tell the whole story. Cap space can be created in many ways, and that number can change for every team as we approach the free agency tampering period in March.
The above graph shows which teams can free up cap space via restructures. What this means is that any player on the roster for the 2024 season who isn’t on a rookie deal can have their contract restructured to free up cap space. This does a better job of portraying the realities of each NFL team’s cap situation. Even though some teams are above the cap, they have the means to free up space — the Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley special in New Orleans.
Restructurable cap space is how much money a team has tied into base salaries and non-guaranteed roster bonuses. A team can convert up to 80% of those values into prorated salary bonuses.
The Saints have constructed contracts such that they have escape routes, especially in the form of proratable money, which refers to the process of taking a player on a veteran deal and transforming up to 80% of their base salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus. This signing bonus can be spread out over the length of a player’s contract to free up space in the present.
New Orleans can create upward of $122 million simply by restructuring existing veteran contracts. While all $122 million won’t be created, cap wizard Khai Harley has had to do this for years, since the Saints' legendary 2017 draft class that led them to go all-in for three years. However, Father Time might eventually catch up to the franchise, as the Saints had the oldest snap-weighted age of any team in the league this year.
Not many teams have a lot of money to spend and can free up cap space. This shows how NFL front offices like to operate. If they are big spenders and are constantly prorating money during, and after, the season, they most likely set up their contracts to aid that, putting more money into base salaries and non-guaranteed roster bonuses. This also applies to the other side, as there aren’t many teams in “cap hell,” where they have no cap space and no means of creating any.
As shown by the graph, there is also a clear negative correlation between cap space and restructureable cap space. This means that as teams gain more cap space, they are likely to have less restructureable cap space.
While this method works, there is an obvious downside. Front offices can reduce a player's cap hit in a given season, but there is still cash they have to guarantee to that player that they may not have had to in the past.
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