The uncomfortable reality that is a fading Tom Brady

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Clay

Clay

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http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/f.../10/02/uncomfortable-reality-fading-tom-brady

This is how it ends.

Unless you're John Elway, the final page or two of Act III for a great quarterback is ugly. Ask Joe Montana, or Dan Marino, or Brett Favre, or Johnny Unitas, or Terry Bradshaw, or Y.A. Tittle, or Dan Fouts. Look it up.

And that makes sense. It's how it works: when you get older, you aren't as good as you were in your prime. I think we have enough sample size to arrive at that conclusion in every sport.

So that leads us to Tom Brady. Let's get the obvious out of the way: Brady's offensive line has been brutal, his skill players aren't exactly elite (though he's done more with less in the past) and Josh McDaniels has bursts of astonishing cluelessness. All true. But so is this, and it's becoming increasingly clear that Brady is in serious decline. And there's no reason to think it's suddenly going to improve.

Want to start with some numbers? Here's Brady's passer rating (not a perfect stat, I'll quickly concede) the last five years:

2010: 111.0

2011: 105.6

2012: 98.7

2013: 87.3

2014: 79.1

How about completion percentage?

2010: 65.9

2011: 65.5

2012: 63.0

2013: 60.5

2014: 59.1

Yards per attempt?

2011: 8.6

2012: 7.6

2013: 6.9

2014: 5.8

Touchdown passes?

2011: 39

2012: 34

2013: 25

2014: On pace for 16

Passing yards?

2011: 5,235

2012: 4,827

2013: 4,343

2014: 3,164

Excuses can be made -- have been and will continue to be -- but these numbers are tough to dismiss. And the statistical reality is that Brady has been one of the three or four worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season.

He's 29th (out of 34) in passer rating, right behind EJ Manuel, who was benched this week. He's 33rd in yards per attempt, behind stiffs like Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, Josh McCown, Geno Smith. Brady -- I think the second-best quarterback in the history of the sport, an absolute immortal -- is 27th in completion percentage, again right next to Manuel and Smith (one guy who has been benched and another who will soon be). And (according to Pro Football Focus) Brady is last in the NFL in completion percentage when holding the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer (40.5).

Also this, to slightly injure the theory that this is all an offensive line issue: Brady's passer rating with no pressure is 83.0, about as mediocre as it gets.

“He started looking for the rush when there was no rush. He thought after a certain amount of time somebody was coming, he was fidgeting. . . . Most quarterbacks don’t like getting hit. They get hit and they turn into a totally different person.”

That was Bart Scott talking about Brady. It wasn't last week, or two weeks ago (and boy does Scott stink on CBS -- adds nothing). It was January 17, 2011, after Scott and the Jets came into Foxboro and knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs. And that's a dirty little secret about Brady that's now out for all to see: He's not the same guy under pressure anymore. He changes, and that wasn't always the case.

I don't know if it's the knee, or aging, or lack of faith in the line, but it exists. And we've seen Brady make terrible throws this season with absolutely no pressure -- the two picks in Kansas City (two of the worst of his career), the near INT in the end zone against the Raiders. On 3rd-and-9 at the Miami 44 in the fourth quarter of a 23-20 game, Brady missed a wide-open Edelman, a shocking overthrow. He's last in the NFL in completion percentage in passes over 10 and 20 yards. Not all of these attempts were under duress. Is that all the fault of the line? The receivers? The coaches? Bob Kraft? Ned Yost?

And I need this explained to me: Why does Chad Ochocinco go from Carson Palmer to Tom Brady and regress? Why does Tim Wright go from Mike Glennon to Tom Brady and disappear? How does Danny Amendola catch 85 passes from Sam Bradford, come to New England and produce nothing? There is a history of this and for the life of me I can't figure out why receivers do less with Brady -- significantly less -- than they did with average quarterbacks.

We all agree that the supporting cast is lacking. Not even up for debate. But does Philip Rivers -- right now the best quarterback on the planet -- have great skill players? The team is averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Is Malcom Floyd (six catches last year in two games), Keenan Allen (a second-year receiver actually doing something), Eddie Royal and Antonio Gates that much better than Gronkowski, Edelman, Amendola and LaFell? Look at the resumes and it's pretty close. And Rivers is completing 70 percent of his passes and leads the league with a 114.5 passer rating. Brady's been sacked nine times, tied for seventh-most in the NFL. Of the nine players sacked at least nine times, Brady's rating and completion percentage ranks last and last. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 10 times -- his passer rating is 109.1.

Think about this: A year ago today, if you called the other 31 teams and offered Brady straight up for their starting quarterback for the rest of the season, how many would've said no? Denver (and has the Manning-Brady divide ever been larger? Brady is still ahead on the all-time scale but it it isn't even a competition right now), Green Bay, maybe New Orleans. Now? San Diego, Seattle and Indianapolis are all no-brainers, right? So that's about where Brady is when you rank 'em -- he's dropped from the top three to that 8-12 group. There's no shame in that, of course, but that's where he is, and that's solely based on history, not his current form.

If his name was Chad Henne and he had put up these numbers through four weeks, he'd be exactly where he was at the end of the game Monday -- on the bench, watching Jimmy Garoppolo.

And this isn't some moronic plea to sit Brady and start Garoppolo. I'm all for trolling, God knows, but there is a limit. And when you list the many problems for the 2014 Patriots Brady doesn't crack the top five. But Brady at his best would've hid, or at least lessened, some of the weaknesses. He doesn't do that as well as he used to. He's been, to date in '14, a below average quarterback for a below average team. And at 37 years old, and in his fourth straight year of statistical decline, there is no reason to think it's going to suddenly change.

Brady will never win another MVP. He's never going to play in another Super Bowl in New England. His best days are gone, and the days at a level right below his best days are gone. There will be flashes of the old form, but those will be outnumbered by what we've seen the last year and a half. It's only going to get worse for Brady and the Patriots over the next couple of years.

And that is how it ends.
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Humble suggestion: you may want to wait longer than a day after Brady won a SuperBowl to argue he's on the decline.
 
It was written in 2014 by Kirk Minihane. :coffee:
 
Jaric said:
Humble suggestion: you may want to wait longer than a day after Brady won a SuperBowl to argue he's on the decline.
Click to expand...

I don't think he is. This was written in 2014 after the Kansas City game.

Our favorite Alex Smith hater here, is pointing out what an utter ****ing moron Kirk Minihane is. :coffee:
 
Remember when Brady and the NE Patriots just weren't good anymore?

Me neither.

2014 was a very bad year for sportswriters and football analysts, and they've been steadily in decline.

Thank you, Clay, for posting the idiocy of those agencies for all to see.
 
TommyD420 said:
I don't think he is. This was written in 2014 after the Kansas City game.

Our favorite Alex Smith hater here, is pointing out what an utter ****ing moron Kirk Minihane is. :coffee:
Click to expand...

I should have assumed this was a response to "haters."
 
Meanwhile, Brady has won two Super Bowls since that article was written. ROFL
 
Beaglebay said:
Remember when Brady and the NE Patriots just weren't good anymore?

Me neither.

2014 was a very bad year for sportswriters and football analysts, and they've been steadily in decline.

Thank you, Clay, for posting the idiocy of those agencies for all to see.
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They hated their coach, too.
 
The best thing the Pats ever did for Tom Brady and for their organization was to draft Jimmy G. and declare him the heir apparent. These last 3 seasons from Brady have been his best with 2 rings and potentially more to come.
 
Brady has just edf the biggest comeback in Super bowl history. I congratulate him on winning his fifth ring in a spectacular fashion.

I also note that he has turned in three bad quarters of play during this season's playoffs. He overcame those periods of bad play. But he did have those periods of declining play. He didn't use to have them. The early signs of decline are there unfortunately.
 
AZPats said:
Brady has just edf the biggest comeback in Super bowl history. I congratulate him on winning his fifth ring in a spectacular fashion.

I also note that he has turned in three bad quarters of play during this season's playoffs. He overcame those periods of bad play. But he did have those periods of declining play. He didn't use to have them. The early signs of decline are there unfortunately.
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Just stop. My God. Of all things. You know the other team gets paid too.
 
Mazz22 said:
The best thing the Pats ever did for Tom Brady and for their organization was to draft Jimmy G. and declare him the heir apparent. These last 3 seasons from Brady have been his best with 2 rings and potentially more to come.
Click to expand...

When and by who was he declared the heir apparent?
 
AZPats said:
Brady has just edf the biggest comeback in Super bowl history. I congratulate him on winning his fifth ring in a spectacular fashion.

I also note that he has turned in three bad quarters of play during this season's playoffs. He overcame those periods of bad play. But he did have those periods of declining play. He didn't use to have them. The early signs of decline are there unfortunately.
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Go look at his stat line from the first three quarters of Super Bowl 36, and tell me he didn't used to have them.

Ravens, 2009, 11, 12.

Jets 2010

San Diego 2006 and 2007

Giants 2007

This is like the mythologizing of Michael Jordan. He missed plenty of game winning shots. Adam Vinatieri has missed several game-winning kicks, including playoff games.

3 bad quarters of play over 3 games is something every single team in this league would gladly take.

Patriots Drives in Super Bowl 36:

1 1 12:13 NWE 3 6 3:58 45 Punt
2 1 3:10 NWE 19 3 1:11 5 Punt
3 2 13:12 NWE 42 5 3:04 5 Punt
4 2 6:10 NWE 15 7 4:18 17 Punt
5 2 1:20 RAM 40 5 0:49 40 Touchdown
6 3 15:00 NWE 32 5 3:02 25 Punt
7 3 9:31 NWE 19 5 2:51 45 Punt
8 3 3:25 RAM 33 5 2:07 14 Field Goal
9 4 9:31 NWE 25 3 1:47 8 Punt
10 4 3:44 NWE 20 3 1:53 5 Punt
11 4 1:30 NWE 17 9 1:30 53 Field Goal

Brady was 16/27 for 145 yards and a TD. 5/8 and 53 yards on the final drive. Meaning he was 11/19 for 92 yards up until that point.
2/11 on third down.

Here's one I forgot. 2003 Divisional vs. Tennessee Another single game with 3 bad quarters.

1 1 13:51 NWE 31 6 2:52 69 Touchdown
2 1 7:31 NWE 36 10 3:32 38 Missed FG
3 1 3:48 NWE 43 11 5:02 57 Touchdown
4 2 6:57 NWE 19 4 1:34 18 Punt
5 2 1:00 NWE 22 5 0:47 19 Punt
6 3 15:00 NWE 30 5 2:59 16 Punt
7 3 4:14 NWE 37 5 2:08 16 Fumble
8 3 0:24 NWE 5 12 4:56 56 Punt
9 4 6:40 OTI 40 8 2:34 13 Field Goal
10 4 1:38 NWE 42 4 1:38 -5 Downs

That's not a ton of offense after the first quarter.

Here's the San Diego 07 Game

1 1 13:13 NWE 27 3 1:03 3 Punt
2 1 9:45 NWE 10 5 2:50 24 Punt
3 1 5:13 NWE 20 1 0:06 0 Interception
4 1 2:55 NWE 35 10 4:07 65 Touchdown
5 2 9:14 NWE 40 4 2:05 20 Punt
6 2 4:36 SDG 24 2 0:45 24 Touchdown
7 2 2:24 NWE 23 3 0:38 8 Punt
8 2 0:08 0 0:08 0 End of Half
9 3 15:00 NWE 39 6 2:28 11 Interception
10 3 8:36 NWE 33 9 5:40 65 Interception
11 3 1:32 NWE 33 8 4:17 67 Touchdown
12 4 9:13 NWE 13 15 9:13 65 End of Game

If they're not playing a QB with a torn ACL and a tapped out Tomlinson, they lose.


This is Ravens 09. The fumble was Brady's.

1 1 14:43 NWE 27 3 1:30 -10 Fumble
2 1 10:29 NWE 21 3 1:31 2 Punt
3 1 8:10 NWE 14 4 1:21 11 Interception
4 1 3:55 NWE 30 2 0:59 4 Interception
5 1 1:19 NWE 20 5 2:11 12 Punt
6 2 14:08 RAV 16 6 2:45 16 Touchdown
7 2 9:14 NWE 36 3 1:36 8 Punt
8 2 5:33 RAV 44 5 3:26 8 Punt
9 3 15:00 NWE 38 3 1:49 3 Punt
10 3 11:38 NWE 14 4 1:49 30 Interception
11 3 6:18 NWE 47 10 4:31 53 Touchdown
12 4 10:32 NWE 43 10 3:13 31 Missed FG
13 4 2:07 NWE 20 6 0:58 13 Downs




Here's Ravens 2012. Check out that quality second half.

1 1 15:00 NWE 20 5 2:12 22 Punt
2 1 11:24 NWE 21 13 5:03 67 Field Goal
3 1 5:00 NWE 33 6 2:20 32 Punt
4 1 1:14 NWE 47 3 0:55 8 Punt
5 2 9:28 NWE 21 11 5:10 79 Touchdown
6 2 2:32 RAV 43 9 2:32 36 Field Goal
7 3 12:46 NWE 9 7 2:43 57 Punt
8 3 6:14 NWE 25 3 1:28 -2 Punt
9 4 14:56 NWE 16 5 2:10 31 Fumble
10 4 11:13 NWE 29 10 2:46 52 Downs
11 4 7:25 NWE 40 2 0:36 36 Interception
12 4 2:05 NWE 33 10 0:59 45 Interception

These were all before he turned 36, and there are several I left out, and these are only playoff games. How about @ Buffalo in 2011?

1 1 15:00 NWE 20 9 5:15 80 Touchdown
2 1 8:46 BUF 35 6 2:45 35 Touchdown
3 1 0:14 NWE 30 3 0:33 3 Punt
4 2 12:27 NWE 15 5 2:20 20 Punt
5 2 7:33 NWE 35 5 1:32 65 Touchdown
6 2 1:56 NWE 20 5 0:51 67 Interception
7 2 0:03 0 0:03 0 End of Half
8 3 13:27 NWE 43 1 0:11 0 Interception
9 3 9:34 NWE 14 10 4:43 81 Field Goal
10 3 3:50 NWE 18 8 4:07 40 Punt
11 4 13:11 NWE 46 4 1:44 31 Interception
12 4 10:36 NWE 20 1 0:14 0 Interception
13 4 10:22 NWE 29 15 6:57 71 Touchdown

That's 4 picks.

A rather famous outing @ Kansas City in 2014

1 1 9:16 NWE 10 3 1:03 4 Punt
2 1 2:15 NWE 20 8 4:50 38 Punt
3 2 10:58 NWE 20 7 3:46 34 Punt
4 2 3:55 NWE 9 4 1:31 25 Punt
5 3 15:00 NWE 20 3 1:05 1 Punt
6 3 9:58 NWE 1 3 1:20 8 Fumble
7 3 7:53 NWE 20 2 0:50 5 Interception
8 3 5:29 NWE 19 4 2:03 81 Touchdown
9 4 11:52 NWE 20 3 1:18 6 Interception
10 4 10:34 NWE 19 7 3:09 81 Touchdown
11 4 4:56 NWE 17 5 2:38 -3 Punt

That first TD was on a quick screen and KC missed the tackle. After the 2nd pick Brady was benched.

So please, ****ing spare me that 3 bad quarters over 3 playoff games is a sign of decline. ****ing spare me. :coffee:
 
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