We ain't winning the Superbowl.

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Roberto71 said:
I'll say it here. We will secure 1st seed and will have the AFCCG in Razor but the team is just not performing adequatly on offense imho.

An incredibly poor team like the Jets showed the Pats weaknesses. Solder is an accident waiting to happen and the one single reason why I don't think we'll win the SB is the O Line. A decent front 7 has Brady getting pummelled and he gets very antsy when he's feeling the heat.

And I think we have to be honest, Tom has not been exactly stellar the past few weeks. He is not making a lot of throws.

A team like the Seahawks in a SB would just be in Tom's face all day.

I'll qualify my opinion by saying we won't win UNLESS the O Line especially and Tom to a lesser extent, improves substantially.

I'll be the happiest man alive if I'm wrong....
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Anyone who thinks Brady is part of the problem is, I'm sorry to inform you, an idiot.

312 yards, 3 TD passes and a rush TD.....and you think that's less than stellar? Sure, he had two picks, but on the pick-six Amendola was raped, but no call, and on the other, Lafell pulled the route up short as he also did on the long toss down the left sideline, from where I was sitting!

Giselle was right....he can't throw it and catch it on the same play. The O line is a problem right now, and coupled with the injuries at receiver, Brady is having trouble getting the ball off in less than 2.5 secs.....that will be fine again as the injured return.

You sound a little ridiculous complaining about Brady, the greatest of all time and playing like he's in the prime of his career. Take a chill pill and relax.
 
Peyton Moanning said:
Anyone who thinks Brady is part of the problem is, I'm sorry to inform you, an idiot.

312 yards, 3 TD passes and a rush TD.....and you think that's less than stellar? Sure, he had two picks, but on the pick-six Amendola was raped, but no call, and on the other, Lafell pulled the route up short as he also did on the long toss down the left sideline, from where I was sitting!

Giselle was right....he can't throw it and catch it on the same play. The O line is a problem right now, and coupled with the injuries at receiver, Brady is having trouble getting the ball off in less than 2.5 secs.....that will be fine again as the injured return.

You sound a little ridiculous complaining about Brady, the greatest of all time and playing like he's in the prime of his career. Take a chill pill and relax.
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Pretty much my thought as well. Brady's receivers also lead the league in drops with 41. The next team has 31. Brady is the least of the worries right now. Needs to clean up what he can but the receivers and Oline need to step up and of course the STs which have been brutal the last 2 games.
 
gerschwedes said:
there is no such calibration. Betting odds have nothing to do with actual odds in life. There is no such thing as 1 in 16/32 chance.

you have to account for all players and all teams and all flags and all fumbles and all 3 rd down conversions,all injuries etc etc.

each team has a 1 in million/s chance in making it.
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ROFL

I'm guessing you didn't do all that well in math.

:dith:
 
gerschwedes said:
there is no such calibration. Betting odds have nothing to do with actual odds in life. There is no such thing as 1 in 16/32 chance.

you have to account for all players and all teams and all flags and all fumbles and all 3 rd down conversions,all injuries etc etc.

each team has a 1 in million/s chance in making it.
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You're talking about variables involved in a team making it to the SB, not chances or odds.
 
dchester said:
ROFL

I'm guessing you didn't do all that well in math.

:dith:
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Oddly enough, when I took my first college-level Probability class at UMass, my Professor there used sports league championships as an example to illustrate the concept of a partition.

"If there are twenty teams in the league, if exactly one team can be champion, and exactly one team must be champion, then the mean probability that a randomly chosen team wins the championship is one in twenty, or five percent. Of course, some teams are better than others, so you can think of the better teams 'stealing probability' away from the worse teams ... as long as you make sure that the total probability adds to one."

In this case, there are sixteen teams in the AFC, so ...
 
Peyton Moanning said:
Anyone who thinks Brady is part of the problem is, I'm sorry to inform you, an idiot.

312 yards, 3 TD passes and a rush TD.....and you think that's less than stellar? Sure, he had two picks, but on the pick-six Amendola was raped, but no call, and on the other, Lafell pulled the route up short as he also did on the long toss down the left sideline, from where I was sitting!

Giselle was right....he can't throw it and catch it on the same play. The O line is a problem right now, and coupled with the injuries at receiver, Brady is having trouble getting the ball off in less than 2.5 secs.....that will be fine again as the injured return.

You sound a little ridiculous complaining about Brady, the greatest of all time and playing like he's in the prime of his career. Take a chill pill and relax.
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You are aware of course that this was a post taken from last year??
 
sprocketboy said:
Oddly enough, when I took my first college-level Probability class at UMass, my Professor there used sports league championships as an example to illustrate the concept of a partition.

"If there are twenty teams in the league, if exactly one team can be champion, and exactly one team must be champion, then the mean probability that a randomly chosen team wins the championship is one in twenty, or five percent. Of course, some teams are better than others, so you can think of the better teams 'stealing probability' away from the worse teams ... as long as you make sure that the total probability adds to one."

In this case, there are sixteen teams in the AFC, so ...
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Bingo, we've got Bingo!

The sum of the probability for all the 16 teams in the AFC (or NFC) to make the SB must equal 1.

That's what the "scientific" probability requires.

Of course, if one employs a system of logic restricted to individuals living under a bridge all bets are off.
 
sprocketboy said:
Oddly enough, when I took my first college-level Probability class at UMass, my Professor there used sports league championships as an example to illustrate the concept of a partition.

"If there are twenty teams in the league, if exactly one team can be champion, and exactly one team must be champion, then the mean probability that a randomly chosen team wins the championship is one in twenty, or five percent. Of course, some teams are better than others, so you can think of the better teams 'stealing probability' away from the worse teams ... as long as you make sure that the total probability adds to one."

In this case, there are sixteen teams in the AFC, so ...
Click to expand...

So ... if we make the ridiculous assumption that Gesundheit is correct (and each team actually only has 1 in a millions odds of making it), then that would mean the the odds for that one of the 32 teams winning it all is 32 in a million. That would also mean the odds for no one winning it all is 999968 out of a million. So basically (using our new expert's odds), more than 99.99% of the time, there should not be a superbowl champion.

:dith:



Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a team typically win it all, most years?

:huh:
 
dchester said:
So ... if we make the ridiculous assumption that Gesundheit is correct (and each team actually only has 1 in a millions odds of making it), then that would mean the the odds for that one of the 32 teams winning it all is 32 in a million. That would also mean the odds for no one winning it all is 999968 out of a million. So basically (using our new expert's odds), more than 99.99% of the time, there should not be a superbowl champion.

:dith:



Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a team typically win it all, most years?

:huh:
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mostly
 
dchester said:
So ... if we make the ridiculous assumption that Gesundheit is correct (and each team actually only has 1 in a millions odds of making it), then that would mean the the odds for that one of the 32 teams winning it all is 32 in a million. That would also mean the odds for no one winning it all is 999968 out of a million. So basically (using our new expert's odds), more than 99.99% of the time, there should not be a superbowl champion.

:dith:



Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a team typically win it all, most years?

:huh:
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That's what Las Vegas and the gamblers want you to think.
 
gerschwedes said:
I have plenty. Whether you agree with me or not wont change that it will happen.

all your logical stats pointed to the Pats beating the Eagles...it didnt happen.

I dont need stats to back up anything because they ultimately dont matter because the Eagles, Saints and other sorry teams have all won games.

all I need to know is I'll be right and The Pats wont make the SB.

pro sports isnt hard to figure out.
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Yet you picked the Patriots to beat the Eagles.

You are not logical.
 
PatsFanLisa said:
Send me one, too. Gerhart is smarter than me. He told me so.
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I know he was replying to you, but did he really mean that he was smarter than just you? Maybe he was saying he's smarter than everyone.
gerschwedes said:
theres nothing self important about being more knowledgeable than others.
OK,how's this for more humble?

I'm sorry that I know something you dont. Its not my fault
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I like how he explained that he's more humble than us all, too. He's just to good to be true.

:)
 
dchester said:
So ... if we make the ridiculous assumption that Gesundheit is correct (and each team actually only has 1 in a millions odds of making it), then that would mean the the odds for that one of the 32 teams winning it all is 32 in a million. That would also mean the odds for no one winning it all is 999968 out of a million. So basically (using our new expert's odds), more than 99.99% of the time, there should not be a superbowl champion.

:dith:



Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a team typically win it all, most years?

:huh:
Click to expand...

this just means you have no critical thinking skills. I explained all the variables. You cant calibrate human error to a 1 in 32 chance
 
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