The only thing you "explained" was that you don't know anything about what odds are.
ROFL
We ain't winning the Superbowl.
- Thread starter Roberto71
- Start date
Share this page
The only thing you "explained" was that you don't know anything about what odds are.
ROFL
O_P_T
Why Be Normal
No this proves you have no mathematical skills.
sprocketboy
Surrounded by Donkey Fans
So ... if we make the ridiculous assumption that Gesundheit is correct (and each team actually only has 1 in a millions odds of making it), then that would mean the the odds for that one of the 32 teams winning it all is 32 in a million. That would also mean the odds for no one winning it all is 999968 out of a million. So basically (using our new expert's odds), more than 99.99% of the time, there should not be a superbowl champion.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a team typically win it all, most years?
Maybe what Gerhardt Graf von Schwedes is saying is that there is a 99.9968% chance that the Super Bowl will not be played at the end of this season? :shrug:
Herr von Schwedes: if have some inside dope about a planned terrorist attack next February in Santa Clara, you might want to alert your local Polizei, or Interpol, or Batman, or someone ...
gerschwedes
Member
nope, that would be you. Your reading comprehension is poor. I just explained what the odds actually are.
there is no such thing as 1 in 32 when trying to say the odds of a team getting to a SB. Thats just silly bookie double talk.
You understand that every team deals with the same variables, right? You also understand that only a certain number of teams will ultimately be eligible to be in the playoffs, and that some of those teams will only have to win two games to get to the SB, while others will have to win three, right?
gerschwedes
Member
which is why it goes up into the millions. You are adding more to it than taking away.
I'm talking about the beginning. Of course as you get closer the number decreases. That doesnt qualify as a 1 in 2 chance.
every player is a variable, every play is a variable, every down is a variable every ref call is a variable,every caught or dropped pass,every injury, etc etc.
gerschwedes
Member
I like how he explained that he's more humble than us all, too. He's just to good to be true.
I never said more humble than you. I said I was being more humble than I had been LOL take it as the joke I meant it as
So your argument is that because of all the variables involved, which contribute to the difficulty in making it to the SB, NE will not make it. All other teams deal with the same variables, so none of them will make it either, right?
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2005
- Messages
- 76,178
- Reaction score
- 8,181
- Points
- 113
- Location
- Gillette Stadium Basement
Can someone tell me what the odds to an Assclowning before the end of the season is?????
obviously someone will get moved to the AA, not saying it is a sure thing with the holiday spirit filling us with love for our brothers and sisters, but the odds are someone will be an asshat and get moved.
so if there are 500 posters active on the planet the odds are 1 in 475 (obviously the 25 mods will not AA themselves - those pricks) or 0.002105.
man I can not wait to see who it is..
{sneeze}
GESUNDHEIT to myself
obviously someone will get moved to the AA, not saying it is a sure thing with the holiday spirit filling us with love for our brothers and sisters, but the odds are someone will be an asshat and get moved.
so if there are 500 posters active on the planet the odds are 1 in 475 (obviously the 25 mods will not AA themselves - those pricks) or 0.002105.
man I can not wait to see who it is..
{sneeze}
GESUNDHEIT to myself
You have no clue, whatsoever, what you are talking about. If you continue to make a fool of yourself this way, and add nothing whatsoever to this forum, we may need to to restrict your posts to the Assclown Asylum, where other fools are banished to.
Granted, I still suspect you are simply pretending to be a fool, (thinking it's some funny kind of trolling attempt), but whatever the case, you have ceased being funny to me, and are now just boring.
Just to be clear, add something constructive to the forum, or you will be dealt with. This is the only warning you will get from me.
Darth Despot
We ass
- Joined
- May 13, 2005
- Messages
- 21,429
- Reaction score
- 3,217
- Points
- 113
- Location
- Upgraded to Probable
- Website
- tokevinwithlove.wordpress.com
Funny thing is the probabilities actually increase each week for a few teams that are "alive" and decrease for others as they become mathematically eliminated from contention and for others who are a little bit alive but require divine intervention. The Patriots odds are far greater than 1 in 32 since they will almost assuredly be one of the 12 teams to make the playoffs.
Then there's the whole 1st round bye
Then there's the whole 1st round bye
Big/Sky/Fly
370hssv vw6!s tu36v
I think he is entertaining to read...even if he makes no sense. Sort of like Middy or NEM...popcorn
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2005
- Messages
- 41,434
- Reaction score
- 13,229
- Points
- 113
- Age
- 76
Your ability to make it happen creates a huge conflict if you want to post odds on this.
Play your cards right, it'll make you a billionaire.
Cheers, BostonTim
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2005
- Messages
- 41,434
- Reaction score
- 13,229
- Points
- 113
- Age
- 76
If and only if each active poster is an equal candidate for AC.
Blatant false assumption, and whats more you know it.
Go for it.
Cheers, BostonTim
sprocketboy
Surrounded by Donkey Fans
As you pointed out, this is a different question. In this case, I would (as you have) take all the members over the life of this board and interpret the ass-clowning statistics as an estimate of P(AC), which is the probability of a given member being ass-clowned.
This raises several other questions, however. For example, it might make more sense to define E[t(AC)] as the "Expected Time to Ass-clowning," in other words, given a randomly chosen member, how long does it take (on average) for that member to be ass-clowned?
Then again, that number would be difficult to calculate, since some members have never been ass-clowned, and probably never will be. You might have an easier time calculating E[exp{-t(AC)}], where exp{} is the exponential function (inverse of natural log). That exp{-t(AC)} function would map all those members who have never been ass-clowned to zero.
Even then, how do you handle those who have been ass-clowned multiple times? :shrug:
Hmmm ... I wonder if there's an opportunity here to write a doctoral dissertation on Ass-Clowning Statistics.
O_P_T
Why Be Normal
I'd say it's asymptotically approaching 1.
Patriots4ever
Running Up the Score
Sooooo, you're saying there's a chance?
gomezcat
Sniffing Ms Cat's knickers
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2004
- Messages
- 9,007
- Reaction score
- 1,036
- Points
- 113
- Location
- Under the crack of Miss Cat's whip
- Website
- gomezcat.blogspot.com
You mods are way more tolerant than me. I'd have assclowned him a long time ago. Judging by dchester's comments, it's on the way.
I won't address the comments about odds, as they're written by someone who probably has a personality disorder.
I won't address the comments about odds, as they're written by someone who probably has a personality disorder.
PatsFanLisa
No filter
Given that this is directed at OPT, it might be the funniest thing I've ever read on this board.