Week 11, 2020, 1PM at Texans

chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
59,133
Reaction score
8,040
Points
113
Location
Canton, MA
Finally an early game again!!!
This is a game the Pats' O can use to really get humming again.
The Texans are 31st in rush D; the Pats are 3rd in rushing offense. No contest there. They are 18th in pass D.
On offense they're weak running the ball (31st) which is a blessing for us, and their strength on O is passing (8th) which is also our strength on D. I'll take our pass D every time.

Opening odds: The Pats are 1.5 pt favorites - play the Pats. The Texans are 2-7 with both wins over the lowly Jax Jaguars.

When the Patriots run - Edge: Patriots
Sometimes trying to figure out the best plan of attack for a game can be challenging. Then there are matchups like this that seem to make things quite easy. The Patriots love to run the football behind their physical offensive line. Damien Harris has injected new life into the ground game and is coming off his third 100-yard game of the season against the Ravens. New England ranks third in rushing and appears to be hitting its stride behind Harris' punishing style. Meanwhile the Texans can't stop the run – even when they know it's coming. That was the case when Cleveland took over at its own 3 with just under five minutes left while protecting a 10-7 lead last wek. Despite the obvious situation, the Browns chewed up the remaining time behind Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, who ground the Texans to death. It wasn't an aberration, either. Houston ranks last in rushing yards allowed as well as rushing yards per play. Even when the weather conditions made passing quite challenging, Houston still was powerless to stop Cleveland on the ground. Expect Harris to continue to see the bulk of the workload, and Rex Burkhead to continue in his support role as both a runner and receiver. That has become the Patriots formula for offensive success, and Houston doesn't have the horses to do much about it.
When the Patriots pass - Edge: Patriots
The Texans aren't much better against the pass, as evidenced by the 7.35 yards per pass they allow for the season, which ranks 26th. The overall yardage (241.7 yards, 18th) is likely a product of teams being content to run the ball instead, which is why the yards per play number is more telling. The Texans employ Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves at corner with Justin Reid and Eric Murray at safety. Lonnie Johnson and Michael Thomas work as extra DBs, but the group has struggled all season as the Texans pass rush hasn't been as potent as normal. Houston has just two interceptions all year and hasn't been able to slow down most of the offenses it has faced. The Patriots are using the passing game as a complementary piece and lately Cam Newton has done a nice job of protecting the ball. Short throws to Jakobi Meyers and Burkhead have represented the bulk of the passing attack, and Meyers has emerged as an important piece with several strong games in recent weeks. The Texans have the ability to put pressure on the passer with J.J. Watt (4 sacks) and Whitney Mercilus (3 sacks) but neither has consistently done so to the point where the secondary has benefited. The Patriots won't likely be chucking it around NRG Stadium but should make enough plays to augment the rushing attack.
When the Texans run - Edge: Patriots
This is an area where a Texans weakness matches with a Patriots weakness. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball much this season for a variety of reasons. David Johnson was serviceable as the lead back before being knocked out of the lineup with a concussion, leaving pass catching threat Duke Johnson as the main option. Duke Johnson averages just over 3 yards per carry. The Texans also have played much of the season from behind, eliminating their opportunities to run the ball more frequently. As a result they rank 31st in the league, averaging just 87.9 yards per game on the ground. So, the fact that the Patriots have experienced their struggles stopping the run this season should be somewhat mitigated against Houston. In addition, New England is coming off a strong effort stopping the run against the Ravens Sunday night, which should give the group some confidence moving forward. Newcomer Carl Davis has stepped in the contributed alongside Lawrence Guy, who returned to the lineup after a one-game absence. Practice squad call-up Terez Hall has looked comfortable working inside in place of the injured Ja'Whaun Bentley, and the Patriots front should have enough to control the Texans on the ground.
When the Texans pass - Edge: Texans
The Texans do have one very dangerous weapon to deal with on offense and that is Deshaun Watson. Despite the Texans 2-7 record, Watson gives his team a chance to win every week and Houston has had a chance to win virtually every week as a result. Watson has 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions and has a 107 passer rating for the season while completing more than 68 percent of his throws. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are dangerous as big-play threats with nine touchdowns between them, and Watson can also do damage with his legs, averaging almost 5 yards per rush. The Patriots secondary has been a bit inconsistent as of late, a fact illustrated perfectly by J.C. Jackson. Jackson has interceptions in a team-record five straight games, but he's also given up his share of plays during the stretch. Baltimore's Lamar Jackson was able to enjoy one of his better passing nights in a monsoon Sunday night, and that followed Joe Flacco's strong night a week prior. The Texans will use Cooks, Fuller and slot man Randall Cobb, as well as Duke Johnson out of the backfield as they try to put points on the board behind Watson. The Texans have trouble protecting him at times, but the Patriots haven't consistently generated much heat this season. Houston has shown the ability to put points on the board, and if that's the case Sunday it will likely be due to Watson's brilliance.
Special Teams - Edge: Patriots
The teams are fairly even in this matchup with Houston's Ka'imi Fairbairn doing a solid job in the kicking department alongside punter Bryan Anger. Fairbairn has missed three field goals, one coming last week in tough wind conditions in Cleveland. Nick Folk missed a PAT last week in the rain but that snapped a five-game stretch of perfection for the veteran kicker. Both have been steady for their teams overall. Jake Bailey continues to turn in great work for the Patriots, consistently creating field position for New England. Neither side is generating anything in the return game. DeAndre Carter was handling both punts and kicks for Houston but was released earlier in the week. C.J. Prosise (kicks) and Fuller (punts) could fill the roles Sunday against the Patriots. Gunner Olszewski has handled both jobs for the Patriots but hasn't gotten much going. Each team has been solid on the coverage units, continuing the even nature of this matchup.
 
Last edited:
OP
chevss454

chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
59,133
Reaction score
8,040
Points
113
Location
Canton, MA
2020 REGULAR SEASONNEW ENGLANDHOUSTON TEXANS
Record 4-5 2-7
Divisional Standings 3rd 3rd
Total Yards Gained 3,203 3,190
Total Offense (Rank) 355.9 (19) 354.4 (20)
Rush Offense 161.1 (3) 87.9 (31)
Pass Offense 194.8 (29) 266.6 (8)
Points Per Game 21.0 (27) 22.2 (25)
Total Yards Allowed 3,180 3,682
Total Defense (Rank) 353.3 (13) 409.1 (29)
Rush Defense 129.2 (24) 167.4 (32)
Pass Defense 224.1 (10) 241.7 (18)
Points Allowed/Game 23.4 (11) 28.0 (26)
Possession Avg. 30:27 25:45
Sacks Allowed / Yards Lost 16/98 26/140
Sacks Made / Yards 13/90 19/123
Total Touchdowns Scored 21 23
Penalties Against / Yards 29/303 39/316
Punts / Avg. 24/46.8 34/47.6
Turnover Differential 0 (16T) -4 (27)
 
OP
chevss454

chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
59,133
Reaction score
8,040
Points
113
Location
Canton, MA
From PFF

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS


The headline of the game: The Patriots’ ground-heavy attack can take advantage of Houston​

We saw this past Sunday night that the Patriots will lean heavily on their run game if the opposing defense allows it. They ran on a league-high 67% of their offensive plays in Week 10, with Damien Harris picking up 84 of his 121 yards on the ground after contact. A matchup against Houston should once again give rise to New England’s ground game early and often.
Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt ran for over 100 yards against the Texans in Week 10, and on a broader scale, Houston’s run defense ranks dead last in yards allowed per run play, at 5.2. The next closest team is Dallas at 4.8 yards per run play allowed. Expect to see a whole lot of the Patriots’ offensive line imposing its will on an outmatched Texans defensive line in this one.

Betting​


The New England offense has reemerged over the past two weeks, with a get-right game against the Jets leading into a win as a +250 dog.

The Pats are the seventh-best unit in our opponent-adjusted offensive grades but no longer field the lockdown defense of yesteryear. On the other hand, the Texans have never been mistaken for a lockdown defense, which is why the low total is so perplexing. It moved up a full point from the open but is just the sixth-highest of Week 11. The cash percentage indicates a strong preference from the betting market, with our predictive models finding agreement on the total.

No other viable betting play has emerged after this spread reversed off an opening -3 number to make the Patriots slight road favorites. As things stand, 85% of the cash and 89% of the tickets side with the Patriots, with the moneyline percentages offering a similar skew. The Patriots continue to be a public team but sit at just 4-5 against the spread. Houston has the second-worst ATS record in the NFL, so the preference for the Patriots could be more a fade of the Texans' current state.

Fantasy​


Duke Johnson Jr. was confidently started among fantasy gamers last week with a full workload on tap. The touches (14) and snaps (94%) were exactly what we wanted, but the fantasy production did not follow. Let’s just say the former Miami Hurricane couldn’t overcome the insane weather in Cleveland that limited the entire Houston Texans’ offense to just 7 points.
The dynamic scatback should find a much easier path to success in Week 11 against the New England Patriots, who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs (5.0 yards per carry) over the past four weeks.

Since Brandin Cooks put up a goose egg in Week 4, he has been a target vacuum. He has commanded a 28% target share (fifth-highest), hasn’t seen fewer than eight targets in any contest and averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game (eighth-best).
The speedy wideout has also been a man out for vengeance against his former employers. In his last four revenge games, he has averaged eight targets, six catches and 104 receiving yards. New England ranks dead last in yards per target (10.0) allowed to WRs this season.

Damien Harris has become the rare Patriots running back that you can trust. He’s averaged 98 rushing yards over his last three games. His PFF grade of 89.6 is third-highest for backs this season behind Dalvin Cook and Darrell Henderson. There is a little bit of concern that he could lose a little playing time to Sony Michel once he returns, but Harris is likely playing too well to lose his job. It wouldn’t be surprising at all for him to hit 100 yards this week against the Texans.
Houston has given up 1,389 rushing yards to running backs this season — 260 more yards than any other team. The main concern for Harris is that he hasn’t scored enough touchdowns with Cam Newton often taking goal-line work. The Texans have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs at 11. Harris has higher odds for breaking a run for a touchdown than previous weeks.
 

O.Z.O.

rude and offensive
Joined
Aug 24, 2006
Messages
21,474
Reaction score
1,934
Points
113
Age
56
Location
Stocking the bunker
I’m feeling like this game can be the one that sets them up for a solid run. They’ve got some tough matches coming up but I’m starting to feel better, especially after the way they handled the Crows.
 

HSanders

omitted out of respect to Mrs.Jastremski
Joined
Jun 15, 2006
Messages
25,545
Reaction score
3,609
Points
113
Location
on Pats Planet
Is this the first time all year the Pats' run D is favored? 😁
 

Hawg73

Mediocre with flashes of brilliance
Joined
Nov 26, 2002
Messages
22,080
Reaction score
2,988
Points
113
Age
64
Location
Gumdrop house on Lollipop Ln.
So, does almost every NFL team suck or does it not suck?

It seems like you can't know from week to week what is going to happen outside of the Jets, who have also attempted to claw their way out of the crab bucket recently.

I think football fans have become somewhat bi-polar, for good reasons this year, so I ask: Do the Texans suck?

Everybody can plainly see that we run the ball better than they stop the run, but, outside of that category, the stats are pretty even and anything can happen.

One factor that intrigues me is the mini-revolution taking place in Houston right now as former Pats team Chaplain Jack Easterby (the same guy that tried to poach Nick Caserio this past offseason ) attempts to consolidate his power base in Houston by whacking people who get in his way. Jerry Thornton of Barstool Sports explains this and speculates that it's possible that Bill will be seeking a rare Manginiesque vendetta Sunday in the following piece, but I don't know if we have enough guns to want to go to the mattresses right at the moment:

Belichick is Taking the Dreaded High Road with Former Team Chaplain Jack Easterby, Who's Now Ruining the Texans

As far as matchups go, I'll be watching J.J. Watt versus Big Mike Onwenu with interest. Onwenu has barely been human and should get some national attention as he attempts to keep it going against a decorated NFL beast like Watt.
 

Inspector_50

Active member
Joined
Oct 30, 2020
Messages
800
Reaction score
84
Points
28
Location
California
So, does almost every NFL team suck or does it not suck?

It seems like you can't know from week to week what is going to happen outside of the Jets, who have also attempted to claw their way out of the crab bucket recently.

I think football fans have become somewhat bi-polar, for good reasons this year, so I ask: Do the Texans suck?

Everybody can plainly see that we run the ball better than they stop the run, but, outside of that category, the stats are pretty even and anything can happen.

One factor that intrigues me is the mini-revolution taking place in Houston right now as former Pats team Chaplain Jack Easterby (the same guy that tried to poach Nick Caserio this past offseason ) attempts to consolidate his power base in Houston by whacking people who get in his way. Jerry Thornton of Barstool Sports explains this and speculates that it's possible that Bill will be seeking a rare Manginiesque vendetta Sunday in the following piece, but I don't know if we have enough guns to want to go to the mattresses right at the moment:

Belichick is Taking the Dreaded High Road with Former Team Chaplain Jack Easterby, Who's Now Ruining the Texans

As far as matchups go, I'll be watching J.J. Watt versus Big Mike Onwenu with interest. Onwenu has barely been human and should get some national attention as he attempts to keep it going against a decorated NFL beast like Watt.
Yeah this. I thought the Patriots would beat the Jets by 20, they barely get by, I thought the ravens would beat the pats, and the pats win pretty easy, so I cannot even tell anymore. Its odd that the spread in this game is so
close because by all accounts this is a bad matchup for the Texans big time.
 

Mazz22

Age 43 and STILL playing like a champ
Joined
Jan 8, 2014
Messages
10,571
Reaction score
934
Points
113
Location
MA
If Gilmore sits again then I am worried about Watson lighting us up the way Flacco did. They have only had 2 games where they have failed to put up 20 points or more. Still, I think our offense should dominate with the run and we win by 7-10 points.
 

SkiptoMyLou

Six Time Super Bowl Champions!
Joined
Jan 16, 2008
Messages
10,060
Reaction score
416
Points
83
Age
35
Location
San Antonio, TX
Run it down their throats, control the clock. Take some shots for explosive plays. Keep feeding Jakobi. I feel this might be a dangerous game because of Watson, but the Texans are in shambles. So I feel like any type of adversity for them will be met with them folding like lawn chairs, but if they get going offensively they can be dangerous.
 

Inspector_50

Active member
Joined
Oct 30, 2020
Messages
800
Reaction score
84
Points
28
Location
California
Run it down their throats, control the clock. Take some shots for explosive plays. Keep feeding Jakobi. I feel this might be a dangerous game because of Watson, but the Texans are in shambles. So I feel like any type of adversity for them will be met with them folding like lawn chairs, but if they get going offensively they can be dangerous.
Watson cannot save them. They are too far gone. There are teams that still fight no matter what even with a bad record and no hope on the season. This is not one of those teams, no matter how much Watson tries, you
need everyone on board and I just dont think they are.
 
OP
chevss454

chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
59,133
Reaction score
8,040
Points
113
Location
Canton, MA
So, does almost every NFL team suck or does it not suck?

It seems like you can't know from week to week what is going to happen outside of the Jets, who have also attempted to claw their way out of the crab bucket recently.

I think football fans have become somewhat bi-polar, for good reasons this year, so I ask: Do the Texans suck?

Everybody can plainly see that we run the ball better than they stop the run, but, outside of that category, the stats are pretty even and anything can happen.

One factor that intrigues me is the mini-revolution taking place in Houston right now as former Pats team Chaplain Jack Easterby (the same guy that tried to poach Nick Caserio this past offseason ) attempts to consolidate his power base in Houston by whacking people who get in his way. Jerry Thornton of Barstool Sports explains this and speculates that it's possible that Bill will be seeking a rare Manginiesque vendetta Sunday in the following piece, but I don't know if we have enough guns to want to go to the mattresses right at the moment:

Belichick is Taking the Dreaded High Road with Former Team Chaplain Jack Easterby, Who's Now Ruining the Texans

As far as matchups go, I'll be watching J.J. Watt versus Big Mike Onwenu with interest. Onwenu has barely been human and should get some national attention as he attempts to keep it going against a decorated NFL beast like Watt.

I'm told Easterby has fallen out of favor with the owner as a possible GM and that the owner is determined to hire the best GM he can get. It won't be Easterby.
I'd love BB to take that out on the Texans this Sunday. BB is at his best when a game is personal to him.

Do they suck? Well, they have 2 wins and both are against the Jaguars.

You're absolutely right that most games are impossible to predict this year, at least up til now. I haven't laid a single real money bet because of it. Only now am I beginning to get a feel for teams' identities. I know a couple of sharps who say they might place a bet or two this week but every team has been too inconsistent to this point.

If Cannon could stop him, Watt has no chance against Onwenu. I'm looking forward to seeing Onwenu put Watt on his ass a time or two.
 

Inspector_50

Active member
Joined
Oct 30, 2020
Messages
800
Reaction score
84
Points
28
Location
California
I'm told Easterby has fallen out of favor with the owner as a possible GM and that the owner is determined to hire the best GM he can get. It won't be Easterby.
I'd love BB to take that out on the Texans this Sunday. BB is at his best when a game is personal to him.

Do they suck? Well, they have 2 wins and both are against the Jaguars.

You're absolutely right that most games are impossible to predict this year, at least up til now. I haven't laid a single real money bet because of it. Only now am I beginning to get a feel for teams' identities. I know a couple of sharps who say they might place a bet or two this week but every team has been too inconsistent to this point.

If Cannon could stop him, Watt has no chance against Onwenu. I'm looking forward to seeing Onwenu put Watt on his ass a time or two.
Hell its still up in the air for me. Watching GB struggle to beat a horrible Jags team at home. Watching KC squeak by carolina only to see carolina get rolled the next week. I know its about matchups, but this year has been weird. Like I said before I thought the pats would roll the Jets and lose to the Ravens, they barely eek by the Jets and beat the ravens, lol. Yeah I am glad I am not a betting man, I would have lost the farm this year.
 
OP
chevss454

chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
Joined
Mar 8, 2010
Messages
59,133
Reaction score
8,040
Points
113
Location
Canton, MA
Harry has joined the injury list with a shoulder. To me, that's a convenient and easy way out for him not to play, or play to be a blocker, and for neither BB nor Harry to have to answer questions about it. Yeah, tin foil, I know, but it's the least embarrassing way to handle it.
 

Hawg73

Mediocre with flashes of brilliance
Joined
Nov 26, 2002
Messages
22,080
Reaction score
2,988
Points
113
Age
64
Location
Gumdrop house on Lollipop Ln.
Harry has joined the injury list with a shoulder. To me, that's a convenient and easy way out for him not to play, or play to be a blocker, and for neither BB nor Harry to have to answer questions about it. Yeah, tin foil, I know, but it's the least embarrassing way to handle it.

I get the disappointment in Harry, I feel it too, but Derek Rivers played even less than him and got 3 1/2 years (assuming he's fully gone) to produce and I could cite other higher picks that got all kinds of opportunity to do something. More than patient in some cases.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. I think it's possible that he's had multiple injuries this year, including two to his noggin, that have held him back.

I remember him looking like a tackle-breaking machine, at times, when he got his chance to play last season. He hasn't been that guy this season, clearly. but he's had a couple of productive games earlier and looked like he was maybe coming around.

I'll disagree that this is a sneaky move by BB to avoid embarrassing questions, assuming that is what you mean. I can see him maybe protecting a young player in some way, but not himself.
 

rivshark86

Active member
Joined
Jul 7, 2011
Messages
786
Reaction score
52
Points
28
I still think he was IRrd last year because they knew he sucked.
Just cut him and move on.
 
Top