Week 3 other games.

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This is an astonishing fact. In the Bill v Miami game, the Bills offence was on the field for 40 minutes and 90 snaps and outgained Miami in yards 497-212. and yet they still lost! That seems incredible.

The Miami D did some really clever study on Allen, this seems so logical.

“Keeping Josh Allen from scrambling was important,” Holland said. “When he scrambles to his right, he is a very efficient, like, best-in-the-league top quarterback. That was what we tried to do, constant pressure from his right side, to get him going to his left. Trying to keep the pressure in his face, mix up the alignments in the front. Just keep him guessing on what defense we’re in, what coverage we’re in. And at the base of all of that movement and all of that smoke and mirrors was to play hard-nose football, stop the run, make him be one-dimensional. You measure your love for your teammates by your proximity to the ball at the end of each play. I think as a defense, we sell out trying to get to the ball because we love each other so much and we wanna play as hard as anybody else on the field for each other.”
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Darth Despot said:
Miami for reals?
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At one point, the Bills had TEN starters out. Miami still only scraped by with a few more points.
Tua is definitely improved and Howard shut Diggs down, completely.

Bills abandoned the run, way to early

Week three is Parity Week, in the NFL, I guess.

In your game, Mac looked like he was in a LOT of pain. Not good. I hate seeing that....
 
Roberto71 said:
This is an astonishing fact. In the Bill v Miami game, the Bills offence was on the field for 40 minutes and 90 snaps and outgained Miami in yards 497-212. and yet they still lost! That seems incredible.

The Miami D did some really clever study on Allen, this seems so logical.
Click to expand...

That's why Ken Dorsey went ape shit in his booth. The Bills can't run the ball and the Dolphins had a game plan that limited them to short passes.
Dorsey was frustrated beyond belief that his O was so inefficient. The Dolphins can't run either but Leslie Frasier doesn't have the DBs to limit them to short passes.
BB is taking notes, btw.

And that Miami D you speak of is led by DC Josh Boyer who spent 12 years with the Patriots as Defensive Assistant and DBs coach. He's the guy Flores hand picked to go with him to the Dolphins.
He made up a new defensive coaching position just for Boyer, Defensive Passing Coordinator. Boyer knows his stuff which made Mike McDaniel want to keep him as his DC when McDaniel got the HC job. Boyer has a super aggressive philosophy on defense and he knows exactly how to use his DBs and front 7 to minimize disadvantages created by being aggressive. Losing Flores and Boyer together was a double whammy brain drain for the Pats defense.

The Bills inefficiency on O was a direct result of Boyer's game plan.
Look at Allen's EPA/A (expected points added/attempt). It was 0.3. Tua's was 1.16.
Now look at Allen's ANY/A (Net yards/attempt). It was 6.3 yds per attempt which is pitiful. Tua's was 10.3.
Miami didn't allow him to throw down field which limited Allen's Passer Rating to 95 & his QBR to 60. Compare that to Tua's Passer Rating of 123 and his QBR of 80.

Why is EPA/A, ANY/A and Passer Rating impt? Remember this because it's impt for predicting outcomes of future games.
Multiple studies have shown...
1. EPA/Dropback has the highest correlation to wins. 40%
2. ANY/A has the 2nd highest correlation for wins. 35%
3. Passer Rating has the 3rd highest correlation for wins. 34%

All have higher correlation to wins than QBR, QB Elo, PFF Grades, TD%, YDs/A and Completion%.

Therefore, a DC's primary job should be to limit those 3 things and of those 3 a DC has greatest direct control over ANY/A by his game plan. Boyer's defensive game plan was perfect in that it limited Allen to short passes and he has the DBs who can cover well.
 
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chevss454 said:
That's why Ken Dorsey went ape shit in his booth. The Bills can't run the ball and the Dolphins had a game plan that limited them to short passes.
Dorsey was frustrated beyond belief that his O was so inefficient. The Dolphins can't run either but Leslie Frasier doesn't have the DBs to limit them to short passes.
BB is taking notes, btw.

And that Miami D you speak of is led by DC Josh Boyer who spent 12 with the Patriots as Defensive Assistant and DBs coach. He's the guy Flores hand picked to go with him to the Dolphins.
He made up a new defensive coaching position just for Boyer, Defensive Passing Coordinator. Boyer knows his stuff which made Mike McDaniel want to keep him as his DC when McDaniel got the HC job. Boyer has a super aggressive philosophy on defense and he knows exactly how to use his DBs and front 7 to minimize disadvantages created by being aggressive. Losing Flores and Boyer together was a double whammy brain drain for the Pats defense.

The Bills inefficiency on O was a direct result of Boyer's game plan.
Look at Allen's EPA/A (expected points added/attempt). It was 0.3. Tua's was 1.16.
Now look at Allen's ANY/A (Net yards/attempt). It was 6.3 yds per attempt which is pitiful. Tua's was 10.3.
Miami didn't allow him to throw down field which limited Allen's Passer Rating to 95 & his QBR to 60. Compare that to Tua's Passer Rating of 123 and his QBR of 80.

Why is EPA/A, ANY/A and Passer Rating impt? Remember this because it's impt for predicting outcomes of future games.
Multiple studies have shown...
1. EPA/Dropback has the highest correlation to wins. 40%
2. ANY/A has the 2nd highest correlation for wins. 35%
3. Passer Rating has the 3rd highest correlation for wins. 34%

All have higher correlation to wins than QBR, QB Elo, PFF Grades, TD%, YDs/A and Completion%.

Therefore, a DC's primary job should be to limit those 3 things and of those 3 a DC has greatest direct control over ANY/A by his game plan. Boyer's defensive game plan was perfect in that it limited Allen to short passes and he has the DBs who can cover well.
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Jesus, that is just masterful stuff from the Miami coaching staff and from Boyer especially.

You say BB is taking notes, but do you think we have the DBs that can take away Allen's longer throws? I'm not sure we do.
 
I know there is time for a turn around but I wonder if Brady is going to be average for him this year and then retire. He isn’t exactly playing the best right now. His average is still better then most in the league.
 
Roberto71 said:
Jesus, that is just masterful stuff from the Miami coaching staff and from Boyer especially.

You say BB is taking notes, but do you think we have the DBs that can take away Allen's longer throws? I'm not sure we do.
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I'm also not sure we have the receivers to get longer throws downfield. It is what it is. But our running game is top 5 in the league. Miami doesn't have that.
Limiting Allen to short throws should be the game plan for every team that plays the Bills bc their running game is almost non-existent.
 
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chevss454 said:
I'm also not sure we have the receivers to get longer throws downfield. It is what it is. But our running game is top 5 in the league.
Limiting Allen to short throws should be the game plan for every team that plays the Bills bc their running game is almost non-existent.
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Nothing is faster at learning in the world than NFL coaches. It's always great to see how quickly they adapt and the ingenious ways they come up with schemes to negate the opposition.

Bills could be iffy on what you're saying as it's very hard to negotiate the playoffs especially and getting to the big dance without an adequate run game.
 
Coltsfan2theend said:
I know there is time for a turn around but I wonder if Brady is going to be average for him this year and then retire. He isn’t exactly playing the best right now. His average is still better then most in the league.
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His D is still excellent. Vita Vea saved a certain TD with a hammering tackle on the goaline that dislodged the ball and turned it over and they basically stopped Rodgers in the 2nd half/. Plus, Fournette looks to be in superb form.

If Brady gets Evans, Godwin and Julio back it will change things because his accuracy looked good. Biggest issue for Brady though is his O Line. He took a pounding yesterday and they will continue all season.
 
chevss454 said:
That's why Ken Dorsey went ape shit in his booth. The Bills can't run the ball and the Dolphins had a game plan that limited them to short passes.
Dorsey was frustrated beyond belief that his O was so inefficient. The Dolphins can't run either but Leslie Frasier doesn't have the DBs to limit them to short passes.
BB is taking notes, btw.

And that Miami D you speak of is led by DC Josh Boyer who spent 12 with the Patriots as Defensive Assistant and DBs coach. He's the guy Flores hand picked to go with him to the Dolphins.
He made up a new defensive coaching position just for Boyer, Defensive Passing Coordinator. Boyer knows his stuff which made Mike McDaniel want to keep him as his DC when McDaniel got the HC job. Boyer has a super aggressive philosophy on defense and he knows exactly how to use his DBs and front 7 to minimize disadvantages created by being aggressive. Losing Flores and Boyer together was a double whammy brain drain for the Pats defense.

The Bills inefficiency on O was a direct result of Boyer's game plan.
Look at Allen's EPA/A (expected points added/attempt). It was 0.3. Tua's was 1.16.
Now look at Allen's ANY/A (Net yards/attempt). It was 6.3 yds per attempt which is pitiful. Tua's was 10.3.
Miami didn't allow him to throw down field which limited Allen's Passer Rating to 95 & his QBR to 60. Compare that to Tua's Passer Rating of 123 and his QBR of 80.

Why is EPA/A, ANY/A and Passer Rating impt? Remember this because it's impt for predicting outcomes of future games.
Multiple studies have shown...
1. EPA/Dropback has the highest correlation to wins. 40%
2. ANY/A has the 2nd highest correlation for wins. 35%
3. Passer Rating has the 3rd highest correlation for wins. 34%

All have higher correlation to wins than QBR, QB Elo, PFF Grades, TD%, YDs/A and Completion%.

Therefore, a DC's primary job should be to limit those 3 things and of those 3 a DC has greatest direct control over ANY/A by his game plan. Boyer's defensive game plan was perfect in that it limited Allen to short passes and he has the DBs who can cover well.
Click to expand...
The Bills also had 10 starters out of the game at one point because of heat exhaustion and injuries, and still had a chance at the end. Nothing in the geek stats about that of course ;) Multiple OLineman, McKenzie, Diggs and a shit ton on the defensive side that were out completely. "Injuries are not an excuse" sounds good in speeches but in reality it's a great excuse if it's key players and/or if there's just so many like what the Bills are dealing with right now. That said I do think Miami is good and are looking like a playoff team so far, I just don't think the gap between them and the Bills is as close as it looked yesterday.
 
jayShomp said:
The Bills also had 10 starters out of the game at one point because of heat exhaustion and injuries, and still had a chance at the end. Nothing in the geek stats about that of course ;) Multiple OLineman, McKenzie, Diggs and a shit ton on the defensive side were out completely. "Injuries are not an excuse" sounds good in speeches but in reality it's a great excuse if it's key players and/or if there's just so many like what the Bills are dealing with right now.
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I don't feel sorry for them. Every team goes through the injury bug. Depth is important esp. with a 17 game season.
 
chevss454 said:
I don't feel sorry for them. Every team goes through the injury bug. Depth is important esp. with a 17 game season.
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I don't think I implied I felt sorry for them, but if I did just for the record I couldn't care less about what they're dealing with, I'm just trying to look at it objectively instead of only with stats on a piece of paper(I'm not saying those stats are worthless, more of giving a different perspective I guess). And depth can only take you so far since you only can have so many players on your roster. Injuries can destroy a season if you have enough of them, I don't care how deep a team is.
 
chevss454 said:
That's why Ken Dorsey went ape shit in his booth. The Bills can't run the ball and the Dolphins had a game plan that limited them to short passes.
Dorsey was frustrated beyond belief that his O was so inefficient. The Dolphins can't run either but Leslie Frasier doesn't have the DBs to limit them to short passes.
BB is taking notes, btw.

And that Miami D you speak of is led by DC Josh Boyer who spent 12 with the Patriots as Defensive Assistant and DBs coach. He's the guy Flores hand picked to go with him to the Dolphins.
He made up a new defensive coaching position just for Boyer, Defensive Passing Coordinator. Boyer knows his stuff which made Mike McDaniel want to keep him as his DC when McDaniel got the HC job. Boyer has a super aggressive philosophy on defense and he knows exactly how to use his DBs and front 7 to minimize disadvantages created by being aggressive. Losing Flores and Boyer together was a double whammy brain drain for the Pats defense.

The Bills inefficiency on O was a direct result of Boyer's game plan.
Look at Allen's EPA/A (expected points added/attempt). It was 0.3. Tua's was 1.16.
Now look at Allen's ANY/A (Net yards/attempt). It was 6.3 yds per attempt which is pitiful. Tua's was 10.3.
Miami didn't allow him to throw down field which limited Allen's Passer Rating to 95 & his QBR to 60. Compare that to Tua's Passer Rating of 123 and his QBR of 80.

Why is EPA/A, ANY/A and Passer Rating impt? Remember this because it's impt for predicting outcomes of future games.
Multiple studies have shown...
1. EPA/Dropback has the highest correlation to wins. 40%
2. ANY/A has the 2nd highest correlation for wins. 35%
3. Passer Rating has the 3rd highest correlation for wins. 34%

All have higher correlation to wins than QBR, QB Elo, PFF Grades, TD%, YDs/A and Completion%.

Therefore, a DC's primary job should be to limit those 3 things and of those 3 a DC has greatest direct control over ANY/A by his game plan. Boyer's defensive game plan was perfect in that it limited Allen to short passes and he has the DBs who can cover well.
Click to expand...
Boyer will get pilfered to some team to be head coach fairly soon I bet...
 
chevss454 said:
I'm also not sure we have the receivers to get longer throws downfield. It is what it is. But our running game is top 5 in the league.
Limiting Allen to short throws should be the game plan for every team that plays the Bills bc their running game is almost non-existent.
Click to expand...
Singletary isn't too bad at times, but, Moss is garbage. The rookie didn't show much so far.
 
Roberto71 said:
Jesus, that is just masterful stuff from the Miami coaching staff and from Boyer especially.

You say BB is taking notes, but do you think we have the DBs that can take away Allen's longer throws? I'm not sure we do.
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I think we do. And we have the safeties to make the defensive reads confusing and hide coverages by playing them as essentially OLBs. Base personnel against Buffalo should be 3 safeties and 2 CBs, adding the 3rd CB for the equivalent of nickel. On passing downs it should be Barmore, Wise, Judon, whichever of Uche or Jennings has more lane discipline, Wilson, plus 3 CBs and McCourty +2 safeties. Barmore should line up on the left more often than not, inside of Judon. Get rid of Uche/Jennings in favor of McMillan or Peppers when you're going with a 3-man rush.
 
Just listened to Cowherd, and he actually made some interesting points on Buffalo. He was very hard on them, really going after McDermott for still not developing a run game and like all Defensive background HC's, he asks his big physical QB to do waaaay too much, and they end up taking a pounding, and their careers can end early or be littered with injury. He said McDermott is basically Ron Rivera at Carolina with Cam or Tomlin with Big Ben. They don't protect their QBs, they expect to run way too often, and the QB and team end up suffering long-term.
 
Flagg the Wanderer said:
I think we do. And we have the safeties to make the defensive reads confusing and hide coverages by playing them as essentially OLBs. Base personnel against Buffalo should be 3 safeties and 2 CBs, adding the 3rd CB for the equivalent of nickel. On passing downs it should be Barmore, Wise, Judon, whichever of Uche or Jennings has more lane discipline, Wilson, plus 3 CBs and McCourty +2 safeties. Barmore should line up on the left more often than not, inside of Judon. Get rid of Uche/Jennings in favor of McMillan or Peppers when you're going with a 3-man rush.
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And learn from Miami and stop Allen rolling to his right, block that and force him to the left where he's weaker.
 
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