Oswlek
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I thought about putting this in one of the longer threads, but decided it might get buried under an avalanche of other good information. I also considered Den-in-NH's prediction thread, but felt it wasn't quite germaine. Mods may certainly merge if they feel that it should have been in either of those.
Deliberating this game has lead me to having expectations, some good and some bad. Before getting into them, here are a few preemptive thoughts about this team heading into the playoffs.
* This team is more playoff ready than either of the last two failures, having taken haymakers by virtually every team they've faced for the last two months, and coming back in every one. Even the losses were kept closer than they probably should have.
* The defensive unit has better understanding of each other's capabilities than they did last year. As much as the offense is the focal point, the defense has needed to make 3-4 plays or else the L's would probably have been twice as much.
* Unlike 2009 and 2010, and to a lesser extent, the SB in 2007, health is on the upswing.
* Continuing on the health theme, the Pats/Broncos replay was eye opening. On nearly every successful play by Denver, of the 4 guys who consistently converged on the ball carrier, 3 of them may not even set foot on the field this week, Ihedigbo, Slater/Brown and Jones. Fletcher was also usually around the tackle and you'd expect Spikes to steal a number of his snaps. Interesting that 4 of 11 guys who all played virtually every down may not play a full game's snaps combined.
Now despite all of those being positive, I do have some concerns about this game. On to the expectations.
* I expect this to be a close game. Even if you exclude the the 2005 and 2006 teams that weren't quite as good as the early decade counterparts, the 2nd round has consistently been a struggle for the Patriots.
2001 needed a 4th quarter rally from 10 points down and overtime, whereas they raced out to a 21-3 lead against Pitt. 2003 was very, very close to being a predecessor to 2010 and then went on to dominate Indy. Indy gave NE all they could handle in 2004 for a half whereas Pitt was run over. Hell, even in 2007 Jax was much more of a handful than I expected them to be.
That second round has consistently been more of a challenge than the season would suggest.
Of course, it could be said that all of those teams were better than this Denver squad, which is true. But I think that will be offset somewhat by the fact that this team is less experienced and needs to learn to win in the postseason.
* I expect Logan Mankins to have a personal foul penalty.
* I expect at least one 20+ pass interference penalty on a NE defender.
* I expect the defense to play out the same way it did down the stretch, start slow, adjust and improve. I'm not buying the rope-a-dope theory and think what you see is what you get.
* Because of this, I expect Denver to score a TD on their opening possession. I also expect Denver to win the TOP for the first 20 minutes decisively, with at least one 6+ minute drive.
* Despite the improving overall team health, I am concerned that any residual injury issues all seem to be concentrated on the OL. If there is one way that Denver is going to win this game, it is by winning on the LOS. I expect Denver to be more successful rushing Brady than they were last time, especially early on, partly due to health and partly due to adjustments on their part.
* I don't think that Denver is going to make as many big plays as they did against Pitt, or even in the earlier matchup. That said, I expect Denver to have frustratingly consistent success running the ball between the 20s.
* I expect this game to be within one score in the 4th quarter, something like 20-17 perhaps with Denver in the lead, and the final 10 minutes what ultimately decides the outcome.
* "I can't believe the Patriots might lose this game" will be a consistent thought in living rooms and mancaves around the state, before NE pulls away at the end for a 27-20 victory.
Of course, the advantage to all this is the performance will lead everyone to deride the team all week leading into the AFCCG, giving NE full right to the disrespect card. :archive:
Deliberating this game has lead me to having expectations, some good and some bad. Before getting into them, here are a few preemptive thoughts about this team heading into the playoffs.
* This team is more playoff ready than either of the last two failures, having taken haymakers by virtually every team they've faced for the last two months, and coming back in every one. Even the losses were kept closer than they probably should have.
* The defensive unit has better understanding of each other's capabilities than they did last year. As much as the offense is the focal point, the defense has needed to make 3-4 plays or else the L's would probably have been twice as much.
* Unlike 2009 and 2010, and to a lesser extent, the SB in 2007, health is on the upswing.
* Continuing on the health theme, the Pats/Broncos replay was eye opening. On nearly every successful play by Denver, of the 4 guys who consistently converged on the ball carrier, 3 of them may not even set foot on the field this week, Ihedigbo, Slater/Brown and Jones. Fletcher was also usually around the tackle and you'd expect Spikes to steal a number of his snaps. Interesting that 4 of 11 guys who all played virtually every down may not play a full game's snaps combined.
Now despite all of those being positive, I do have some concerns about this game. On to the expectations.
* I expect this to be a close game. Even if you exclude the the 2005 and 2006 teams that weren't quite as good as the early decade counterparts, the 2nd round has consistently been a struggle for the Patriots.
2001 needed a 4th quarter rally from 10 points down and overtime, whereas they raced out to a 21-3 lead against Pitt. 2003 was very, very close to being a predecessor to 2010 and then went on to dominate Indy. Indy gave NE all they could handle in 2004 for a half whereas Pitt was run over. Hell, even in 2007 Jax was much more of a handful than I expected them to be.
That second round has consistently been more of a challenge than the season would suggest.
Of course, it could be said that all of those teams were better than this Denver squad, which is true. But I think that will be offset somewhat by the fact that this team is less experienced and needs to learn to win in the postseason.
* I expect Logan Mankins to have a personal foul penalty.
* I expect at least one 20+ pass interference penalty on a NE defender.
* I expect the defense to play out the same way it did down the stretch, start slow, adjust and improve. I'm not buying the rope-a-dope theory and think what you see is what you get.
* Because of this, I expect Denver to score a TD on their opening possession. I also expect Denver to win the TOP for the first 20 minutes decisively, with at least one 6+ minute drive.
* Despite the improving overall team health, I am concerned that any residual injury issues all seem to be concentrated on the OL. If there is one way that Denver is going to win this game, it is by winning on the LOS. I expect Denver to be more successful rushing Brady than they were last time, especially early on, partly due to health and partly due to adjustments on their part.
* I don't think that Denver is going to make as many big plays as they did against Pitt, or even in the earlier matchup. That said, I expect Denver to have frustratingly consistent success running the ball between the 20s.
* I expect this game to be within one score in the 4th quarter, something like 20-17 perhaps with Denver in the lead, and the final 10 minutes what ultimately decides the outcome.
* "I can't believe the Patriots might lose this game" will be a consistent thought in living rooms and mancaves around the state, before NE pulls away at the end for a 27-20 victory.
Of course, the advantage to all this is the performance will lead everyone to deride the team all week leading into the AFCCG, giving NE full right to the disrespect card. :archive: