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Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
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http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2011/11/patriots-vs-giants-course-correction.htmlMORE SNAPS FOR MARK ANDERSON
After Guyton, the 2nd and 3rd worst rated players on the Patriots defense on Pro Football Focus have been Rob Ninkovich and Shaun Ellis. Each have been productive against the run, but have been abysmal against the pass. Ninkovich’s pass rush stats are slightly skewed because he’s usually late to the rush after bumping the opposing tight end at the line, but Ellis doesn’t have much of an excuse while only having eight QB pressures, zero sacks and one QB hit.
With Ellis and Ninkovich struggling, I think it’s time to see more of Mark Anderson. It’s a bit of a running joke that you know the game is nearing an end when Anderson starts upping his sack totals. You may call that garbage time, but the opposing lines aren’t exactly letting Anderson slip through to hit their QB. Anderson has five sacks, three QB hits and eight pressures in about 1/3 the snaps as Ellis and almost half the snaps as Ellis. Anderson can line up at LE and as a 3rd down sub rusher, he also hasn’t been terrible against the run this year. It seems the Patriots would only be gaining by playing Anderson more and not losing too much in the run defense department.
MISTAKES OUT OF ELI
Eli Manning has been playing downright Peyton-esque this season. He’s completed 64.7% of his passes and only thrown for five picks so far this year. The Patriots secondary will have trouble against all the Giants targets (especially if Hakeem Nicks plays), so they’ll need to pressure Eli, throw some different coverage schemes at him and force some turnovers out of him.
A key player to watch for the Patriots will be Phillip Adams. He came in against the Steelers after Antwaun Molden struggled and looked pretty decent as a sub DB. Either Adams or Molden is going to need to step up.
The Patriots should be able to get some interior pass rush against the Giants. David Diehl has played very poorly this season and it’s looking more and more like David Baas will be out at center. If Albert Haynesworth is going to have a breakout game this season, this might be a good bet for it.
RUN THE BALL
The Patriots were playing from behind against the Steelers and effectively abandoned the run game. The Patriots’ offense could be unstoppable if they combine their no huddle offense with a balanced rushing attack. Last week Kevin Faulk was the bell cow, that can’t happen again. Faulk is a great story, but Danny Woodhead is the better third down back, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley are too talented to be kept off the field. I understand Faulk’s value as a pass blocker, but it’s a catch 22, because when Faulk in back there, opposing teams don’t have to respect the run.
Overall, the Giants are a very balanced team. They’re great at rushing the quarterback, but other than that they don’t do anything excessively well or poorly. When forced into nickel situations, the Giants typically play safety Deon Grant in the slot. If that’s the plan against the Patriots, Wes Welker could have a field day.