Kerry Byrne: Why Patriots are smart to ignore high-profile WRs in draft

[O_P_T]

Interesting info that I thought deserved it's own thread.

The Patriots are in the midst of the greatest decade of offensive productivity in the history of the NFL, averaging an incredible 29.9 points per game since 2006.

This stretch includes four different 500-point seasons, the most in the history of any NFL franchise.

The compelling part for draftniks is that the Patriots have pulled off this unprecedented offensive explosion while ignoring high-profile wide receivers in the draft, defying ill-founded conventional wisdom about the power of the position.

The Pats have drafted just one wide receiver in the top two rounds (Aaron Dobson, 2013) since Chad Jackson in the second round of 2006. You have to go all the way back to Terry Glenn in 1996 to find the last time the Patriots drafted a first-round wideout, easily the longest stretch of any NFL franchise.

The Patriots understand a fact about football the rest of the NFL refuses to accept: Wide receiver is the most overvalued position in the game, and maybe in all of sports.

Wide receivers are so overvalued that Cold, Hard Football Facts calls them Shiny Hood Ornaments — they sparkle and look sexy on the hood of an NFL offense, enrapturing fans and general managers with their speed and athleticism. But they rarely make the engine of an NFL offense move faster.

NFL history is littered with teams that fell in love with the sexy allure of a Shiny Hood Ornament, only to look dumbfounded when the motor seized up beneath it.

Take, for example, the Atlanta Falcons, who made a colossal draft day blunder in 2011, shipping five picks to Cleveland to move up 21 spots in the first round.

General manager Thomas Dimitroff — going against his Patriots pedigree — nabbed Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones with the No. 6 overall pick, yet another lovelorn GM smitten by the assumption that the only thing that separated his team from a Super Bowl was a Shiny Hood Ornament.

Jones has produced at an elite level and Dimitroff can pat himself on the back all day long. But that’s the deceptive allure of these temptresses. Jones has looked great. The reality, though, is that the Falcons franchise has suffered badly since it sold its soul for Jones.

The results have been decisive: The Falcons offense, which averaged 25.9 ppg in 2010, the year before drafting Jones, has matched that total only once (26.2 in 2012). The 2015 Falcons scored just 21.1 points per game, the team’s lowest total since 2007.

The defense, meanwhile, has imploded. The pre-Jones 2010 Falcons allowed just 18.0 ppg, the team’s stingiest defense of the past 30 years. It’s allowed an average of 23.2 ppg in the five years since. That’s what happens when you deny yourself five opportunities to improve a defense, including two first-round picks.

Most importantly, the wins have disappeared. The Falcons won 13 games in 2010 and appeared on the verge of a Super Bowl. They’ve won just 18 games over the past three seasons, without a single campaign above .500.

NFL general managers should know better than to fall in love with high-profile WRs, but they never seem to learn their lesson. Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Percy Harvin top the list of wide receivers who have failed to lift a team to the next level but looked great along the way.

Six NFL teams last year grabbed wide receivers in the first round, the most picks devoted to any one position (tied with offensive tackle). Five of those six picks failed to live up to the hype and five of those six teams tumbled in the standings.

Wide receivers are overvalued for two main reasons:

One, they do not touch the ball enough to make the expected impact. If a wide receiver catches six passes per game, it’s a tremendous season. But six touches among the total 140 averaged snaps in a game simply doesn’t move the needle in the big scheme of things.

Even the great Jerry Rice, widely praised as the best receiver of all-time, barely moved the needle. He touched the ball four to five times per game over the course of his brilliant career.

Rice, however, had the fortune of being drafted by the 18-1 defending Super Bowl champ 49ers in 1985, a team that dismantled Dan Marino’s Dolphins 38-16 in the Super Bowl. It took the 49ers with Rice 10 years to match the 475 points they scored in 1984.

But what about the speedy wideout who can “stretch the field” and “take the top” off a defense? Again, overvalued by NFL teams. The reality is that about two-tenths of a second in 40-yard time separate a wideout with elite speed from a run-of-the-mill lightning fast NFL wideout, not enough to make the expected impact in a game decided by quick-twitch quarterbacks.

The second biggest reason wide receivers are overrated is that the NFL is all about the quarterback. Simple as that. Great wide receivers do not turn ordinary quarterbacks into great quarterbacks or ordinary teams into great teams. It’s never happened. It never will.

Instead, year after year, we see great quarterbacks make ordinary wide receivers look like great wide receivers, a point Bill Belichick’s powerful Patriots have proven time and again over the past decade and more.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

What is the most undervalued position in the game?

 

[Ryan91]

What is the most undervalued position in the game?

I'd say it's probably Safety, edging Strong over Free ever so slightly.

 

[Mazz22]

Great read. But let's be honest, it helps when your QB is TFB and not Matt Ryan.

 

[Grumpy_Bottom]

What is the most undervalued position in the game?

Center

 

[Claremonster]

What is the most undervalued position in the game?

Backup Offensive Lineman.

 

[BostonTim]

We did have one fairly shiny hood ornament though not at a silly draft pick price.

Cheers

 

[Mazz22]

Byrne is short sighted saying that WR's make minimal impact because they only touch the ball a handful of times per time. Their presence on the field dictate coverages which allow other receivers/TEs to get open. I do agree with him that they are over valued but a guy like Julio Jones is not. The Falcons are just a dumb organization with a QB that has regressed.

 

[Patriots71]

I think having a good Qb that entire time kinda helped too.

 

[blantyr]

Yes, but...

I sympathize with the article. I certainly wouldn't look for the Patriots to give away many draft picks for a flashy receiver. Still, Brady looks a lot better these days if he has two or three guys that are really tough to cover. Welker, Edelman, Gronk, and Lewis are examples of such targets. One good receiver you can game plan around. If there are two or three of them on the field at the same time with TB under center, watch out.

The trick is getting them and keeping them without breaking the bank in terms of giving away bunches of draft picks for an unproven rookie or blowing the salary cap for an overpaid over the hill veteran. It's not that TB doesn't deserve and need some weapons, you just can't put too much of one's football capitol in one guy.

 

[Patriots71]

I sympathize with the article. I certainly wouldn't look for the Patriots to give away many draft picks for a flashy receiver. Still, Brady looks a lot better these days if he has two or three guys that are really tough to cover. Welker, Edelman, Gronk, and Lewis are examples of such targets. One good receiver you can game plan around. If there are two or three of them on the field at the same time with TB under center, watch out.

The trick is getting them and keeping them without breaking the bank in terms of giving away bunches of draft picks for an unproven rookie or blowing the salary cap for an overpaid over the hill veteran. It's not that TB doesn't deserve and need some weapons, you just can't put too much of one's football capitol in one guy.

I think for a long time, we have been able to get away with not having a top 5 receiver because of the QB, but Brady is not going to be here forever, and that might change. I would not be opposed to getting a receiver that could be here in the future that is actually good. The pats have been able to get gold in later rounds with other positions, but receiver has not been the case. Other than Edelman, its been pretty dry for awhile.

 

[chevss454]

To me, BB's offensive philosophy has more to do with the Patriots' success than having or not having a shiny hood ornament. Moving the chains downfield effectively doesn't need that top 5 X receiver but we all saw TB & Randy Moss light up the scoreboard in 2007. Otoh, every week we see other teams take way too many poor percentage shots down the field. Is that the fault of Julio or Calvin or AJGreen? The Falcons and Lions do this far too often. Stafford is the absolute worst at this. I laugh inside every time I see these teams waste a down. If those teams utilized these WRs in a smarter offensive system they'd have better results.

The lesson learned for me is more about offensive philosophy than the shiny hood ornament.

 

[TipRoast]

Byrne is short sighted saying that WR's make minimal impact because they only touch the ball a handful of times per time. Their presence on the field dictate coverages which allow other receivers/TEs to get open. I do agree with him that they are over valued but a guy like Julio Jones is not. The Falcons are just a dumb organization with a QB that has regressed.

I read the article; I didn't see anything that looked like a claim by Byrne that WRs make minimal impact.

What Byrne did say was that high-profile WRs are overvalued - that's a completely different claim. In this era, it's not uncommon for a team to expend 2/3 of their offensive plays on the passing game, and all but a few of those passes will go to WRs (RBs and TEs get the others). So a team's WR group is a vital component of the offense.

Based on an a very cursory look at the all-time receiving records, it seems like the best way to be sure a team doesn't win a championship is for it to have a high-profile WR. Most of those high on the all-time lists (receiving yards/receptions/TDs ) have at most one ring, many do not have any.

 

[SCC]

What is the most undervalued position in the game?

Punter... and I'm only half joking.

 

[Hawg73]

I read the article; I didn't see anything that looked like a claim by Byrne that WRs make minimal impact.

What Byrne did say was that high-profile WRs are overvalued - that's a completely different claim. In this era, it's not uncommon for a team to expend 2/3 of their offensive plays on the passing game, and all but a few of those passes will go to WRs (RBs and TEs get the others). So a team's WR group is a vital component of the offense.

Based on an a very cursory look at the all-time receiving records, it seems like the best way to be sure a team doesn't win a championship is for it to have a high-profile WR. Most of those high on the all-time lists (receiving yards/receptions/TDs ) have at most one ring, many do not have any.

I got the same impression from Byrne that you did.

His Shiny Hood Ornament theory has been around for a few years and I thought it sounded very sketchy when I first read about it. I didn't believe him, or rather didn't want to. I'd been advocating for the Pats to get a shiny hood ornament of their own to prevent Ds from closing down our short passing game, but ever since then I've noticed that his theory seems to be predominately true and the numbers bear that out, so I gave up the ghost.

 

[Mazz22]

I read the article; I didn't see anything that looked like a claim by Byrne that WRs make minimal impact.

What Byrne did say was that high-profile WRs are overvalued - that's a completely different claim. In this era, it's not uncommon for a team to expend 2/3 of their offensive plays on the passing game, and all but a few of those passes will go to WRs (RBs and TEs get the others). So a team's WR group is a vital component of the offense.

Based on an a very cursory look at the all-time receiving records, it seems like the best way to be sure a team doesn't win a championship is for it to have a high-profile WR. Most of those high on the all-time lists (receiving yards/receptions/TDs ) have at most one ring, many do not have any.

My post referred to this statement by Byrne:

Wide receivers are overvalued for two main reasons:

One, they do not touch the ball enough to make the expected impact. If a wide receiver catches six passes per game, it’s a tremendous season. But six touches among the total 140 averaged snaps in a game simply doesn’t move the needle in the big scheme of things.

Even the great Jerry Rice, widely praised as the best receiver of all-time, barely moved the needle. He touched the ball four to five times per game over the course of his brilliant career.

As I said in my post, to say WR is overvalued for this reason is absurd even more absurd to cite Rice. An elite WR or a HoF one in Rice's case dictate coverages and help other receivers get open. We see this in spades when Gronk is on the field - the whole offense is better because he takes 3 guys with him. An elite receiver/TE impacts every single play he is on the field whether he touches the ball or not.

I tend to agree with Chevvs that it is not about the elite receivers being overvalued as much as the coaches offensive philosophy and how they use them. We saw this when we had Moss. He was perfectly utilized in our offense to the tune of 23 TDs and of course Welker had a big season as well.

While it is hard to argue with the Pats offense post-Moss, I am still of the mindset that Bill should not have veered away from the great WR on the outside in favor of the two TE offensive set. When defenses are able to cover the middle of the field and pressure Brady as we saw with Denver last year and the Ravens and Giants previous to that, the offense is shut down. I would prefer the Moss/Welker combo with an above average TE and RB but what do I know. Bill has all the rings ... just my two cents.

 

[O_P_T]

What is the most undervalued position in the game?

Long Snapper.

Think about it.

If they screw up it's a missed XP or FG. If they screw up on a punt, it's a big swing in field position either due to a hurried punt, a block, or a turnover.

How often does one hear about teams getting a LS? That's usually an afterthought for most teams.

 

[O_P_T]

My post referred to this statement by Byrne:

Wide receivers are overvalued for two main reasons:

One, they do not touch the ball enough to make the expected impact. If a wide receiver catches six passes per game, it’s a tremendous season. But six touches among the total 140 averaged snaps in a game simply doesn’t move the needle in the big scheme of things.

Even the great Jerry Rice, widely praised as the best receiver of all-time, barely moved the needle. He touched the ball four to five times per game over the course of his brilliant career.

As I said in my post, to say WR is overvalued for this reason is absurd even more absurd to cite Rice. An elite WR or a HoF one in Rice's case dictate coverages and help other receivers get open. We see this in spades when Gronk is on the field - the whole offense is better because he takes 3 guys with him. An elite receiver/TE impacts every single play he is on the field whether he touches the ball or not.

I tend to agree with Chevvs that it is not about the elite receivers being overvalued as much as the coaches offensive philosophy and how they use them. We saw this when we had Moss. He was perfectly utilized in our offense to the tune of 23 TDs and of course Welker had a big season as well.

While it is hard to argue with the Pats offense post-Moss, I am still of the mindset that Bill should not have veered away from the great WR on the outside in favor of the two TE offensive set. When defenses are able to cover the middle of the field and pressure Brady as we saw with Denver last year and the Ravens and Giants previous to that, the offense is shut down. I would prefer the Moss/Welker combo with an above average TE and RB but what do I know. Bill has all the rings ... just my two cents.

And that's where you misunderstand the importance of the WR.

It is not to stretch the field vertically, but horizontally.

One doesn't need a Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, etc. to stretch the field horizontally and keep the defense from packing the middle.

An "average" WR can do that. They don't have to go "deep" and "take the top off the defense" they simply have to show that they can be effective outside the numbers and they will draw the attention of the defense.

Think David Givens.

Was he a "shiny hood ornament"?

Not at all.

But when he was on the field, the defense had to account for him.

Or think LaFell in '14.

He was productive and not "elite" by any stretch of the imagination. But he was able to work outside the numbers and be effective.

It's not like BB didn't try to get WR's in the past 6 years, it's just that many of the individuals didn't work out.

 

[Mazz22]

And that's where you misunderstand the importance of the WR.

It is not to stretch the field vertically, but horizontally.

One doesn't need a Randy Moss, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, etc. to stretch the field horizontally and keep the defense from packing the middle.

An "average" WR can do that. They don't have to go "deep" and "take the top off the defense" they simply have to show that they can be effective outside the numbers and they will draw the attention of the defense.

Think David Givens.

Was he a "shiny hood ornament"?

Not at all.

But when he was on the field, the defense had to account for him.

Or think LaFell in '14.

He was productive and not "elite" by any stretch of the imagination. But he was able to work outside the numbers and be effective.

It's not like BB didn't try to get WR's in the past 6 years, it's just that many of the individuals didn't work out.

It was more Deion Branch that was the field stetcher at least vertically. And he and Givens were a great pairing. I would rather go back to that approach then the TE sets. LaFell was good for one season but since 2010 we have had complete garbage on the outside and it has cost us playoff wins IMO.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

It was more Deion Branch that was the field stetcher at least vertically. And he and Givens were a great pairing. I would rather go back to that approach then the TE sets. LaFell was good for one season but since 2010 we have had complete garbage on the outside and it has cost us playoff wins IMO.

Why not just use the TE's along with another WR in the draft/current WR's and Dion Lewis/James White/someone in the draft? :shrug_n: