Hawg73
Mediocre with flashes of brilliance
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2002
- Messages
- 25,158
- Reaction score
- 11,509
- Points
- 113
- Age
- 68
- Location
- Gumdrop house on Lollipop Ln.
The NFL loves the interest the draft generates and would just as soon that people didn't realize that somewhere around 2/3rds of the players chosen will be cut or wash out soon.
We all do mock drafts and think "shit, if I was running things all these guys would really help us", but it's a fact that no matter how a guy looks, tests, is regarded or how well he played in College a very large percentage get hurt, don't want to make the sacrifices necessary, get in trouble, don't have the confidence, can't learn a new position, unlearn bad habits or experience dozens of other issues that nobody could reasonably predict.
All you can hope for is that your team can add 4 useful players including one difference maker per year. Anything more than that seems to be an outlier. A bonus.
This is my completely non-scientific opinion, but look through recent draft history, including ours (which isn't terrifically representative of the league overall) and tell me if the one third theory doesn't have some merit. It might actually be way too high, but you get bogged down in characterization of guys that hang around and don't make much of an impact, as in you take a guy in the 7th round and he hangs around for a few seasons without making a major contribution. Is that a bad pick or a good pick?
It's simpler to observe the first round, but the same sorts of uncertainties are common there as well, albeit at a lower percentage than the subsequent rounds.
You'd think that the first two or three rounds worth of guys would have successful NFL careers, but it's not even close, but there are those dozen or so stars that can help a team change it's fortunes and that's why everybody goes nuts for it. I'm no different. I love trying to figure it out.
We all do mock drafts and think "shit, if I was running things all these guys would really help us", but it's a fact that no matter how a guy looks, tests, is regarded or how well he played in College a very large percentage get hurt, don't want to make the sacrifices necessary, get in trouble, don't have the confidence, can't learn a new position, unlearn bad habits or experience dozens of other issues that nobody could reasonably predict.
All you can hope for is that your team can add 4 useful players including one difference maker per year. Anything more than that seems to be an outlier. A bonus.
This is my completely non-scientific opinion, but look through recent draft history, including ours (which isn't terrifically representative of the league overall) and tell me if the one third theory doesn't have some merit. It might actually be way too high, but you get bogged down in characterization of guys that hang around and don't make much of an impact, as in you take a guy in the 7th round and he hangs around for a few seasons without making a major contribution. Is that a bad pick or a good pick?
It's simpler to observe the first round, but the same sorts of uncertainties are common there as well, albeit at a lower percentage than the subsequent rounds.
You'd think that the first two or three rounds worth of guys would have successful NFL careers, but it's not even close, but there are those dozen or so stars that can help a team change it's fortunes and that's why everybody goes nuts for it. I'm no different. I love trying to figure it out.